Free agent wide receiver Stefon Diggs is signing with the Patriots, giving the former superstar a new home and Drake Maye an apparent WR1. Diggs is recovering from a torn ACL, but ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports he is on track for a Week 1 return.
New Patriots WR Stefon Diggs, who’s coming off a torn ACL suffered in Week 8 vs. the Colts, is on track to return for Week 1 of the upcoming season.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 25, 2025
It was another reason the Patriots felt comfortable giving Diggs the three-year, $69 million deal that GM Eliot Wolf and Diggs’…
With the ink dry, we can now look at Diggs’ fantasy value heading into the 2025 season and what it means for the Patriots.
Stefon Diggs Fantasy Outlook
The good news for Diggs is that his new team needs a No. 1 receiver, and they are paying him as if he is that guy. Diggs is set to make $69 million over three years with $26 million guaranteed. Even if the Pats can escape the deal with a minimal dead cap hit after 2025, his contract is worth $23 million per year. That is in the same neighborhood as Terry McLaurin, Calvin Ridley, and Michael Pittman Jr. It’s not hard to see why New England splurged for Diggs. Hunter Henry led the team with a 20 percent target share and 674 receiving yards. Pop Douglas paced the wideouts with 621 yards. Backup tight end Austin Hooper was the only player to average more than 1.4 yards per route run.
Even in a down year for his lofty standards, Diggs averaged 1.8 YPRR and earned 24 percent of the Texans’ targets while playing alongside Nico Collins and Tank Dell. He was targeted on 23 percent of his routes, ranking 24th among all wideouts (min. 250 routes). His ability to earn targets shouldn’t come as a surprise. ESPN’s player tracking data gave him an Open Score of 83.
Stefon Diggs is still good at football (pending the Injury Gods being chill) pic.twitter.com/hFyB8tDVdN
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) March 25, 2025
That was the seventh-highest mark for a receiver or tight end last year and Diggs’ third-best mark since 2017. In 2024, the Patriots had Douglas ranked at 34th, Hooper at 46th, and four WRs/TEs outside of the top 100.
With Nico Collins and Tank Dell occupying outside receiver roles in Houston, Diggs ran from the slot on 53 percent of his routes, his highest slot rate since 2016. His aDOT also fell to a career-low mark of 8.3. This likely contributed to his production dip in Houston. Diggs has seldom been a primary slot receiver and has typically operated in the intermediate portion of the field. Houston played him out of position and that shows up in the data. Diggs averaged 1.4 YPRR from the slot and was targeted on 19 percent of these routes. Those numbers jumped to 2.3 YPRR and 28 percent from out wide. With hardly any receiving talent on the roster to speak of, the Patriots are free to deploy Diggs however they see fit.
An ACL recovery for an age-31 receiver creates a staggeringly low floor for fantasy purposes. Diggs was also on the decline even before his short stint in Houston. His worst year in Buffalo came in 2023 when he seemingly fell out of favor in the passing attack late in the year. He averaged fewer than two yards per route run and was held under 1,200 yards for the first and only time as a Bill. He is now well past the typical wide receiver peak age, coming off a catastrophic knee injury, and getting a downgrade in quarterback play. Diggs could put up WR2 fantasy numbers as Drake Maye’s top receiver. He could also lose another step or two and flop on his third team in as many years. I lean toward the former, but he will be a risky pick in fantasy drafts this summer.
Patriots Fantasy Outlook
This signing likely puts a lid on the deep sleeper hype for Kayshon Boutte or Demario Douglas. Pop has been in the NFL for two years and has earned route rates of 69 and 63 percent. Nearly three-quarters of his routes have come from the slot and he has a career aDOT of 6.9. Douglas is a limited player who will likely take a hit in the target share department with the arrival of Diggs.
Things aren’t that much better for Boutte. The 2023 sixth-round pick did nothing as a rookie but gained some traction last year with 43 grabs for 589 yards, the bulk of which came in the second half of the season. His flaws were still readily apparent as he ranked 143rd in Open Score. NFL Next Gen Stats tracked him with an average separation of 2.4 yards, which was near the bottom of the league. There are plenty of examples of young players learning to create more separation over time. George Pickens went from a 50/50-ball artist to a true separator early in his career, but I wouldn’t call that the norm. Boutte is worth a deep dynasty stash but nothing more. Former second-round rookie Ja’Lynn Polk is even lower in the rankings. His .32 yards per route run is the lowest for a rookie wideout over the past 15 years.
Hunter Henry is still lurking about this roster, stealing low-end TE1 games on occasion for savvy fantasy managers. He finished 2024 ninth in target share and fifth in air yards share among tight ends. Those numbers will drop with Diggs in the mix, but Henry also has an elite red zone role to fall back on. He accounted for 24 percent of New England’s end zone targets and 32 percent of their targets inside the 20. If Drake Maye takes the next step, Henry could still pop up for the infrequent top-12 fantasy outing.
Drake Maye Year Two Breakout
The final piece of the puzzle is the man New England hopes is the face of their franchise. Maye was solid as a rookie, ranking 24th in EPA per play and 11th in CPOE.
Pro Football Focus charted him with an accurate throw rate of 66.5 percent, the fourth-highest mark in the league. Maye wasn’t just accurate, he was dialed in. That, however, isn’t worth as much when your receivers can’t get open and your line can’t keep you upright. Maye had the fifth-highest sack rate in the league last year at 9.1 percent. His one coping mechanism was an elite scramble game. He averaged 7.8 yards per carry on 54 attempts. That is the highest clip for a quarterback since Michael Vick. The Pats have already replaced multiple starters along the offensive line via free agency and will likely do so at least one more time via the draft. With Diggs now leading the way in the receiver room, Maye could break into the QB1 mix in 2025.
