The Falcons pulled the plug on the Kirk Cousins experience after just 14 games. Cousins opened the year by looking every bit of 36 years old with a recently torn Achilles in a loss to the Steelers. He and the team turned things around for two months, getting to 6-3 with a lead in the NFC South before things went off the rails. Things then went off the rails with Atlanta losing their next four games in a row. They got back on the board with a 15-9 win over a toothless Raiders squad. Even in a victory, it was clear that the team had to move on from Cousins.
Cousins’ Downfall
Over his past five games, Cousins has one touchdown, nine interceptions, and 11 sacks. He ranks 30th in EPA per play and 29th in CPOE since Week 10. The veteran averaged 236 yards during that stretch and the Falcons were terrified to let him throw.
They registered an absurd -12% pass rate over expected during their 1-4 skid. The only thing more insane than benching a quarterback you just signed to a four-year, $180 million contract is continuing to start a quarterback as physically depleted as Cousins with a first-round rookie waiting in the wins. Michael Penix will start in Week 16 and should hold the job to close out the year.
Penix the Prospect
Penix played in an elite system at Washington and was surrounded by NFL talent. He was throwing to three future NFL receivers with the Seahawks’ next offensive coordinator calling the shots and a great offensive line. Even when factoring in the situation, his numbers were still impressive from a 10,000-foot view. Penix averaged 9.2 adjusted yards per attempt while leading the nation in yards per game (326.9) in his final season. He was extremely aggressive, throwing deep at the fifth-highest rate among Power Five quarterbacks in 2023.
There were also flaws in his game. Penix avoided sacks well but had the lowest first-down-rate on pressured dropbacks of the first-round rookies. He also charted poorly when trying to gauge his accuracy at all depths and locations.
Michael Penix's charting profile is up!
— Derrik Klassen (@QBKlass) April 10, 2024
It's bad.
Really tough to stomach this kind of profile given Penix's age/medical history and the environment he was playing in. There's still stuff to like, but hard to see a first round QB. https://t.co/OijEiIailX pic.twitter.com/ZAVQCIwOjt
All of this is to say, that Penix isn’t guaranteed to be better than Cousins. He should be aggressive and give his receivers chances to make plays, but he will also take his lumps. On the other hand, it’s hard to be worse than throwing nine times as many interceptions as touchdowns for more than a month. Penix is an interesting add in Superflex leagues but can’t be ranked as anything other than a low-end QB2 for his first start.
Fantasy Fallout
For the receivers, this should raise the floor and undoubtedly boosts the ceiling. Drake London is 11th among receivers in target share and 17th in air yards share. Despite seeing WR1 levels of usage, London is stuck in the middle of the WR2 ranks on a points-per-game basis. He has one 100-yard game this year. That’s fewer games in triple digits than Alec Pierce, Rashee Rice—who played three games—and his own teammate Darnell Mooney. Penix consistently put the ball up for his receivers to win and let them do the rest in college. If he is anything like that in the pros, this is a net positive for London.
Mooney and Kyle Pitts have had their floors erased during Cousins’ meltdown. Mooney was held without a catch last week and has been kept under 30 yards in three of his past four appearances. Pitts has six catches for 51 yards over his previous four games combined. Penix’s aggressive style should work out well for both pass-catchers. Mooney easily leads the Falcons in deep targets with 20 compared to 12 for London. The veteran speedster has a chance to return to the WR3 ranks if Penix proves to be an upgrade.
Pitts, meanwhile, has the fifth-most deep targets (seven) among tight ends but ranks 11th in total yardage on such looks. Cousins has targeted Pitts 10+ yards downfield eight times over their past six games. Only one of those passes resulted in a catch. The blame doesn’t fall on Kirk’s shoulders for all of these missed connections, but it speaks to how dysfunctional the entire offense has been. Pitts is less of a “buy” than Mooney or London given how hit-or-miss his role has been, but things couldn’t get worse before the quarterback change. The move gives him at least a sliver of hope.
The ground game should be largely unaffected. Even if the team grows confident in Penix and starts to pass more, an increase in production through the air will garner the attention of defenses and create more lanes for Bijan Robinson. A better offense will also get him more shots at the goal line. It’s RB1 business as usual for him.
