Kyle Dvorchak breaks down his first 2024 NFL mock draft following the first wave of free agency.
1. Chicago Bears
Caleb Williams, QB, USC
The draft seemingly starts at No. 2 with the top pick all but settled science. Williams has an elite arm, great numbers, and an even better highlight reel. His ability to make throws out of structure sometimes looks like a desire to do so, but the nitpicks with his game are far outweighed by the upside. Williams, currently a whopping -1200 favorite to go first overall, will be playing for the Bears this fall.
2. Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Had I dropped my first mock two weeks ago, Drake Maye would have likely been the pick here. There have been small kernels of information pointing to the team taking Jayden Daniels since then. The most recent was the signing of Marcus Mariota, who makes sense as a backup to one of the best dual-threat prospects of the last five years.
Signing Mariota sure seems like a sign Washington is leaning towards Jayden Daniels
— JP Finlay (@JPFinlayNBCS) March 12, 2024
Daniels is now -175 to go second overall at DraftKings Sportsbook after starting the offseason at +200.
3. New England Patriots
Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
Having jettisoned Mac Jones to Jacksonville, the Pats are looking for the first quarterback to kick off the post-Belichick era. Drake Maye checks more of the traditional NFL quarterback boxes than Daniels, though he obviously doesn’t have Daniels’ rushing potential. Maye threw for 7,929 yards, 62 scores, and seven interceptions in his final two years at Chapel Hill. He’s an early declare with prototypical size (6’4/223) and an incredible deep ball. With Daniels and Williams already gone, Maye is a no-brainer for Jerrod Mayo and Co.
4. Arizona Cardinals
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Another auto-draft pick, the Cardinals can drop Marvin Harrison Jr. into their queue right now and start working on their next pick. MHJ was a production machine at Ohio State, going for 2,474 yards and 28 scores in his true sophomore and junior seasons. Unlike many recent first-round picks at receiver, he also has alpha receiver size at 6’4/205. Outside of a king’s ransom trade down, there’s no choice for the Cardinals at No. 4.
5. Minnesota Vikings (trade with LA Chargers)
J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
The Vikings have already made moves that indicate they will be climbing the board for a quarterback. They let Kirk Cousins walk in free agency and then traded up from the second to the first round, likely to acquire more ammo to move into this spot. I could even see them moving up to picks four or three as well. McCarthy will be dropped into an offense with killer weapons and a sharp head coach. This is as good a time as any for the Vikings to pull the trigger on a rookie passer.
6. New York Giants
Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
The Giants are drastically undermanned at receiver and Darren Waller is maybe mulling retirement. Whether it’s Daniel Jones or a rookie from next year’s class, the Giants can’t expect their quarterback to succeed in this current iteration of the offense. Getting Nabers is just step one in revamping the scoring unit.
7. Tennessee Titans
Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
The Titans have made some notable investments to the interior of their offensive line in the past 12 months but are working with next to nothing at tackle. If this class had less firepower at other premium positions—quarterback and receiver—Alt would be a top-three pick. Instead, he falls to the seventh spot and the Titans spring to the podium.
8. Atlanta Falcons
Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
Coming off a 10-sack season in his third year at Bama, Turner is the current favorite to be the first defender off the board. The Falcons are relatively set on offense but ranked below league-average in pressure and sack rate in 2023. They’ve been stuck below that bar in most pass-rushing stats for years. Turner gives their defense a chance to get over the hump.
9. Chicago Bears
Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
The Bears will still take a long look at receiver here. Keenan Allen was a savvy addition but he’s about to turn 32 years old and only under contract for one more year. Still, I see them as more likely to address that need down the road while bolstering their defense with this pick. Given their lack of draft capital in the middle rounds, they will also explore trading back. Without a clear partner to do so, I have them taking the top pass-rusher on the board on Florida State’s Jared Verse.
10. New York Jets
Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
The Jets got next to no production from the 2023 additions of takes deep breath… Allen Lazard, Mecole Hardman, Randall Cobb, and Dalvin Cook, making them strong contenders to take a receiver or Brock Bowers here. However, their season ended after four plays when Leonard Floyd blew by left tackle Duane Brown and sacked Aaron Rodgers, tearing the four-time MVP’s Achilles in the process. For a team with offensive line issues for years, that image will be seared into the minds of Jets staffers for years to come. I fully expect that to lead them to a left tackle via the draft.
11. Los Angeles Chargers (trade with Minnesota Vikings)
Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
After cutting Mike Williams and trading Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze making it to the Chargers after trading back would be a godsend. Following the first-year flop of Quentin Johnston, the Chargers have the worst receiving room in the league as things currently stand. Even if they are sitting at pick No. 11 with Odunze gone, I still see receiver as the clear pick for them.
12. Denver Broncos
Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
The Broncos are lacking in tight end talent and Sean Payton famously ran his juggernaut offense through Jimmy Graham for years. Bowers is the type of tight end an entire passing attack can be centered around and he even emphatically checks the run-blocking box.
13. Las Vegas Raiders
JC Latham, OT, Alabama
The Raiders need a quarterback, but the Vikings are going to beat them to the punch. That leaves Las Vegas in a position to build the surrounding parts now and draft a quarterback next year or later in this draft. An early riser in the draft process, Latham was a right tackle at Bama and gets to stay in that role opposite Kolton Miller in Vegas.
14. New Orleans Saints
Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
Trevor Penning flopped in his second year at left tackle. Right tackle Ryan Ramczyk is still a stalwart lineman when healthy, but chronic knee issues have him teetering on the edge of retirement. Even though he is expected to be back for 2024, his availability over an entire season is questionable at best. He has missed 13 games over the past three years. The Saints could use Olumuyiwa Fashanu at left tackle with Penning potentially covering for the oft-injured Ramczyk on the right side.
15. Indianapolis Colts
Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
The Colts have repeatedly shown that they value athleticism in the draft. They also need another outside corner to start opposite JuJu Brents. Quinyon Mitchell is widely considered the best corner in the class and ran a 4.33 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. It doesn’t take much to put the dots together.
16. Seattle Seahawks
Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington
Washington deployed Troy Fautanu at left tackle for the bulk of his career but did give him a pair of games at left guard before his senior season. The Seahawks lost left guard Damien Lewis in free agency and don’t yet have a backup plan in place. Fautanu would immediately take his spot in the lineup and could play right tackle down the road if needed.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars
Byron Murphy, DT, Texas
The Jags aren’t desperate for an interior defender after inking Arik Armstead to a three-year deal. However, they could still use more pass-rushers and even as a defensive tackle, Byron Murphy may be the best one on the board.
18. Cincinnati Bengals
Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
The Bengals lost right tackle Jonah Williams to a massive contract offer from the Cardinals. Have already experienced a number of Joe Burrow injuries during his short career, I don’t expect them to invest in his offensive line lightly. A mountain of a man, Mims is less than polished but his 6'8/340 frame gives him all the potential you could ask for. He will also get to remain on the right side of the line for his transition to the pros.
19. Los Angeles Rams
Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
Aaron Donald retiring will shake up the Rams’ plans for the offseason, but the Rams could still use another outside corner to pair with Darious Williams. I suspect Arnold would be the top player on the board for several teams here and he fits an obvious need for LA.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers
Adonai Mitchell, WR Texas
Though first-round receiver is the type of flashy move the Steelers seem to shy away from—they haven’t done so since taking Santonio Holmes in 2006—the Diontae Johnson trade gives them a phenomenal reason to break that trend. There’s plenty of debate as to who deserves to be ranked as the WR5 in this class. Mitchell was on the periphery of the conversation before the combine. He then posted a 9.97 RAS, putting him firmly in the mix.
Adonai Mitchell is a WR prospect in the 2024 draft class. He scored an unofficial 9.97 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 11 out of 3063 WR from 1987 to 2024.
— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) March 2, 2024
Splits projectedhttps://t.co/c09xGIzxUh pic.twitter.com/C472ROzkQ6
21. Miami Dolphins
Jackson Powers-Johnson, iOL, Oregon
Jackson Powers-Johnson primarily played center in college but did accrue over 400 snaps at right guard plus a handful of reps at left guard. The Dolphins just inked center Aaron Brewer to a three-year deal, but he too has experience at all three interior positions. Keeping Tua Tagovailoa protected has to be a priority for the Dolphins and JPJ gives them a massive upgrade no matter how Miami chooses to use him.
22. Philadelphia Eagles
Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
Never one to shy away from building through the trenches, the Eagles would normally be eying pass-rushers regardless of the makeup of their roster. In this world, the Eagles trade Haason Reddick, who is reportedly available for other teams, and go back to the EDGE well via the draft.
23. Los Angeles Chargers (trade with Minnesota Vikings)
Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
The Vikings traded up from the second round to get this pick from Houston Friday morning and it was passed onto LA in my mock draft. In a deep class at receiver and tackle, the Chargers could go with either position first and still find a talented player at the other with this pick. Rome Odunze falling to them made the first pick easy and Guyton is more than a fine pick at 23.
24. Dallas Cowboys
Graham Barton, C, Duke
Barton played center as a freshman at Duke and has been at left tackle ever since. Undersized for an NFL tackle, he will likely move back to center in the pros. That’s fine for the Cowboys as they are currently in need of a replacement for Tyler Biadasz, who left in free agency.
25. Green Bay Packers
Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
The Packers made a massive addition to their secondary with safety Xavier McKinney but are still in need of another starting safety and an outside corner. DeJean’s positional versatility will allow him to fill multiple roles as a rookie.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
The Bucs ranked below average in pressure rate last year despite blitzing at one of the highest clips in the league. They then released EDGE Shaq Barrett for cap purposes. Laiatu Latu, PFF’s No. 1 graded EDGE in college football last year, would provide an immediate impact for a team looking to push deeper into the playoffs.
27. Arizona Cardinals
CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama
With receiver squared away, the Cardinals’ next glaring need is at corner. Kool-Aid McKinstry got better every year in college and had a quiet stat line in 2023 because quarterbacks didn’t throw his way. He would immediately step into a starting role for Arizona.
28. Buffalo Bills
Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State
The Bills subbed out Gabe Davis for Curtis Samuel in free agency, but the two hardly play the same position. The Bills still need another outside receiver. At 6’3/213, Coleman is the perfect jump-ball target for Josh Allen to find amidst his many hero-ball plays.
29. Detroit Lions
Kamari Lassiter, CB, Georgia
The Lions are a relatively complete team as evidenced by them being a drive or two away from making the Super Bowl. They could use extra help in the secondary and the signing of Carlton Davis will allow them to develop Lassiter as the team’s CB2 in his rookie season.
30. Baltimore Ravens
Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
Despite going receiver in the first round last year, the Ravens are still lacking in wideout talent. Zay Flowers stepped onto the scene as an immediate play-maker but the team let Odell Beckham go and Rashod Bateman’s career appears to be on the ropes. McConkey is a gifted route-runner and proved he’s an elite athlete on top of that at the combine.
31. San Francisco 49ers
Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois
The 49ers cut long-time interior defender Arik Armstead after the two sides failed to reach an agreement on a reworked contract this offseason. That leaves a defense reliant on a dominant front with a notable opening. Newton fell in this draft because of the run on offensive linemen and receivers but is a tremendous value at pick No. 31.
32. Kansas City Chiefs
Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
Though the Chiefs did address the receiver position by signing Marquise Brown, they only brought him in on a one-year deal. He isn’t the caliber of player that will prevent Kansas City from adding more talent at the same position either. Worthy set the 40-yard dash record at the NFL Combine and was a strong producer even as a true freshman at Texas.
.@ThomasDavisSDTM warned everyone before @XavierWorthy broke the 40 record... 👀@NFLLegacy | @TexasFootball pic.twitter.com/f9KnG5FPmT
— NFL (@NFL) March 10, 2024
His ability to win with the ball in his hands or by burning corners with his deep speed would be a phenomenal addition for the Chiefs.
