It’s easy to be fooled by a small sample of per-route target data, as, I suppose, it’s easy to be fooled by any small sample size.
For years I’ve used targets per route run as a good, reliable way to pinpoint which pass catchers are commanding targets at a high rate. This can help identify highly productive wideouts and tight ends before they go mainstream. In this way, targets per route run (TPRR) is a hipster metric. I was into this receiver way before you even heard of him. Things of that nature.
A big enough sample — a season, perhaps, or at least half a season — can offer some insight into a player’s target commanding ability and a glimpse into how their team views them in the pass-catching pecking order. Below are five tight ends with what I consider interesting and revealing 2024 TPRR profiles, and what that might mean for 2025.
Dalton Kincaid, Bills
- 28 percent targets per route run (2nd highest among tight ends)
- Against man coverage: 31 percent (1st)
- Against zone coverage: 26 percent (6th)
These are oddly strong target-commanding numbers for a guy who finished 20th among tight ends in PPR points per game (7.8) and averaged a humble 5.5 targets per game before missing time late in the regular season. A fantasy disappointment two years running, Kincaid — as seen above — dominated against man coverage. His slight drop off against zone looks could be related to Khalil Shakir’s target hogging against zone coverages.
Route participation was the issue for Kincaid in 2024. Before his Week 10 injury, he ranked 17th among tight ends in pass routes, logging a route on just 65 percent of Josh Allen’s drop backs. Kincaid largely shared the route-running tight end role with longtime Allen favorite Dawson Knox. Not even elite target-commanding could make Kincaid a locked-in fantasy starter in 12-team formats last season thanks to Buffalo’s committee tight end approach.
Another plus for Kincaid: He lined up in the slot on 61 percent of his routes, the highest rate among all tight ends. His 23 percent usage on the outside was third highest among tight ends. This kind of usage is historically good for a tight end’s fantasy prospects, per the history books and the spreadsheets.
Kincaid’s 2024 target-commanding numbers were worlds better than in his rookie season, when he saw a target on just 21 percent of his routes, 17th among tight ends who logged at least 100 pass routes. His vast improvement in 2024 is worth filing away if or when Kincaid is ever in position to run a route on 80 or 90 percent of the team’s drop backs. There is a path, however narrow, to Kincaid not being a massive flop.
Jonnu Smith, Dolphins
- 28 percent targets per route run (2nd highest among tight ends)
- Against man coverage: 20 percent (16th)
- Against zone coverage: 29 percent (1st)
There’s a before and an after in Smith’s 2024 season. The before took place in the regular season’s first month, when Smith ran a route on 47 percent of the Dolphins’ drop backs and was targeted on 17 percent of those routes. He was a fantasy afterthought to a shocking degree.
Then there’s the after: Week 5-18, when the only tight ends to outscore Smith were Brock Bowers and Trey McBride. Smith’s 96 targets over that stretch were fourth most among tight ends; his targets per route run (29 percent) ranked second only to Taysom Hill. Out of nowhere, Jonnu became the focal point of the Miami passing attack and transformed into a downright elite fantasy option. Smith was so good in 2024 that Tyreek Hill briefly considered retirement. Jaylen Waddle may have actually retired; there’s no way to know for sure.
You’ll notice Smith’s massive TPRR drop off against man looks. Thankfully for Smith, Miami in 2024 faced the league’s third lowest rate of man coverage schemes. It’s the way most defenses have approached the Mike McDaniel offense over the past couple years. Assuming that continues in 2025, Smith could once again be a PPR slot machine for check-down merchant Tua Tagovailoa.
David Njoku, Browns
- 25 percent targets per route run (7th among tight ends)
- Against man coverage: 26 percent (6th)
- Against zone coverage: 24 percent (13th)
Njoku, like Jerry Jeudy, cooks for fantasy purposes whenever Deshaun Watson is not throwing him the ball. With Watson possibly finished with multiple Achilles tendon ruptures, it would appear Njoku will be Watson-proof in 2025. So we have that going for us, which is nice.
Njoku has for years excelled against man coverage because, well, no one can guard the size-speed demon one on one. His 5.6 average depth of target in 2024 meant Njoku saw plenty of easy-button looks from various Cleveland quarterbacks. It was enough to make him a top-4 fantasy tight end in PPR points per game (13.5).
Njoku’s short area usage makes him something close to quarterback proof as long as Watson is not under center for the Browns. That means a journeyman QB like Kenny Pickett could get it done for Njoku’s fantasy production in 2025. My one metrics-based hesitation with Njoku: His four yards after the catch per reception last season was the second lowest mark of his eight years in the NFL.
Evan Engram, Broncos
- 27 percent targets per route run (5th among tight ends)
- Against man coverage: 27 percent (3rd)
- Against zone coverage: 28 percent (2nd)
Engram, third among tight ends in receptions since the start of the 2023 season, will reportedly take on the so-called Joker role in the Broncos offense after signing a two-year deal with Denver in March. Does it bother me a little bit that NFL teams often ascribe the Joker role to players they don’t know how to use? It does.
A short-area specialist like Njoku, Engram can get it done with (almost) anyone under center. In fact, it was Mac Jones — not Trevor Lawrence — who unlocked Engram as a fantasy producer in 2024. And unlike most of the other tight ends mentioned here, Engram last season commanded targets at a similar rate against zone and man looks.
One downside to Engram’s analytics profile in Jacksonville: Last season he ranked 22nd out of 40 qualifying tight ends in yards per route run against man coverages. He did not make teams pay for deploying man coverage against him. It’s a small quibble, really.
In Denver, Engram could wind up leading the team in targets thanks to Sean Payton’s penchant for using the short-area passing game as an extension of the running attack. No one will fist pump after taking Engram in 2025 fantasy drafts. Maybe they should: He has every chance to be a top-5 PPR option.
Isaiah Likely, Ravens
- 22 percent targets per route run (15th among tight ends)
- Against man coverage: 17 percent (20th)
- Against zone coverage: 23 percent (17th)
Likely in 2024 fell off in some key target-commanding metrics, though he managed to post a career high yards per route run (1.55) as the Ravens’ No. 2 tight end.
Running a pass route on 55 percent of the team’s drop backs, Likely got by on splash plays but usually operated as the third or fourth pass game option for Lamar Jackson. That Likely lined up in the slot on 54 percent of his routes — the ninth highest rate among tight ends in 2024 — suggests the Ravens see him as a mismatch for opposing secondaries. It doesn’t exactly help Likely’s cause that Mark Andrews last season was the fifth most efficient tight end when operating from the slot.
Andrews returning to the Ravens in 2025 means Likely will have at least one more season in the team’s TE2 role, with unpredictable usage and big-play reliance. Nearly 35 percent of Likely’s 2024 fantasy production came in two games. His role in the Baltimore offense will have to grow considerably if he’s going to be a real factor in 2025.
