The early trading evidence is in for the College Football Playoff National Championship between Washington and Michigan, with the public firing on player prop Overs on both sides, foreshadowing a competitive back-and-forth shootout.
College Football Insights: Championship Game (courtesy of BetMGM)
Most Bet Player Props (tickets)
- J.J McCarthy over 190.5 passing yards (-115)
- Blake Corum over 101.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Michael Penix Jr. over 297.5 passing yards (-115)
- J.J. McCarthy over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+125)
- Michael Penix Jr. over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-175)
- 99% of bets are on the Over
We are betting the National Championship game. Join in the conversation Monday at 1PM ET. From sides to totals to props, get ready for Washington vs. Michigan with the NBC Sports College Football Betting Q&A.
Most Bet Game Props (tickets)
- Michigan to win by 1-6 points (+375)
- Michigan to win and OVER 48.5 points (+120)
- Washington to score 1st points (+110)
- Washington first team to score 20 points (+140)
- Yes game goes to overtime (+875)
We got a brief major buying opportunity on FanDuel with Tybo Rogers posted at 55.5 Rushing Yards that was promptly yanked after word broke that Dillon Johnson expects to play in the Natty. Hard to argue with Corum Over 101.5 Rushing Yards against Washington’s porous rush defense that ranks 121st in rush success rate, and 128th in line yards per carry allowed. The one thing this Washington defense does objectively well against the run is limit big plays, ranking 20th overall in rushing explosiveness.
The biggest challenge for opponents has been avoiding an early deficit, with teams running against the Huskies just 48% of the time as they try to play catch up. Michigan will certainly work in Edwards and Mullings, and Corum is more of a chain-mover than a big-play threat, but the path to victory for UM is on the ground, full stop. Corum’s anytime TD prop is currently trending at -350. While that sounds like a gigantic line, he has scored at least one touchdown in every single game this season, and scored two+ touchdowns a staggering 10-of-14 times.
I’ve used this prop as a way to enhance the return of other plays I happen to like at unattractive odds, such as Ja’Lynn Polk’s 3.5 Receptions prop that currently hangs at -150. Pairing the Corum TDs prop with Polk O3.5 Receptions (a mark he has cleared in 11 of 14 games this year) will net you a +121 line.
Michael Penix Jr, Washington - Under 2.5 Total Touchdowns
It feels like sacrilege to take an Under position on the hottest QB in the nation, but it’s important to remember that Texas’ pass defense is not in the same stratosphere as Michigan’s. The Wolverines have allowed just 7 passing touchdowns total over 14 games, a .50 TD per game pace. Their passing touchdown to attempt percentage of 2.1% ranks second nationally, while they rank seventh with an 11.8% deep completion rate. The key for Washington and Penix will be to do everything possible to keep Michigan’s destructive defensive line from terrorizing Penix and moving him off his spot where he can calmly dissect any defense in the world. UM’s 47% pressure rate and 11.8% DL havoc rate are both ranked third in FBS and help to express in data what our eyes saw them do to Alabama’s passing offense last weekend.
Keeping Penix clean is especially vital since his production out of the pocket is well below the standard of his fellow Heisman-caliber colleagues. Please reference PFF Analyst Anthony Treash’s two companion tweets that shines a light on both Penix and Daniels’ tendencies outside of structure:
the results when passing after being moved off spot:
— Anthony Treash (@PFF_Anthony) December 22, 2023
Penix - 9/36, 89 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Williams - 36/78, 786 yds, 9 TD, 2 INT
Nix - 28/43, 319 yds, 7 TD, 1 INT
McCarthy - 24/33, 409 yds, 7 TD, 1 INT
Maye - 28/60, 468 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Daniels - 9/18, 229 yds, 2 TD
Great stuff here from Anthony, as these tweets encapsulate the problems I’ve seen Penix Jr. have making throws on the run. As you can see, Penix Jr. opted to throw when flushed more than any other top-QB as a percentage of throws, however that amounted to just 36 passes which is way off the pace set by Caleb Williams - 78, with Maye - 60 still way ahead of Penix despite throwing on just 52% of his scrambles to Penix’s 71%.
The difference is Washington’s Joe Moore Award Winning OL has done a sensational job protecting their QB, allowing a microscopic 2.2% sack rate (2nd in FBS) and a 26.7% pressure rate (9th). So Penix’s biggest deficiency has yet to be really exploited, as his 89 passing yards is eye-popping low compared to his contemporaries. Can the UW line continue to let Penix Jr. throw from a stable base, or will Michigan be able to give him the same trouble Jalen Milroe dealt with at the Rose Bowl?
In regard to the 2.5 Total TDs line, Washington’s veteran signal caller has thrown for exactly two touchdowns in five of his last six games, with the lone exception being the P12 Conference Championship Game when he threw just one score. On the rushing side, Penix has run for zero or less yards in 10-of-14 contests with a mere three rushing scores in 14 games. I’m betting against Penix clearing the 3 TD threshold against a Michigan team that I think employs the same slow-paced, ground-based approach that they unveiled against Penn State, which will serve to shorten the game and make 2.5 touchdowns a heavy lift for him. I’m taking the Under 2.5 Touchdowns over on the parlay markets, where you’re getting even money on the bet instead of the (-200) i’ve seen on one of the domestics. Parlay the U2.5 TDs with the Blake Corum Over 101.5 Rushing Yards, Cornelius Johnson Under 41.5 Receiving Yards, or another play of your choice and use the Penix line as a “keystone” to build around.
Enjoy the National Championship and enjoy the sweat.
*odds courtesy of BetMGM
