Welcome to the Week 4 edition of Waiver Wired for the 2021 season. With injuries beginning to mount across the league, we’ll sift through all short- and long-term answers to ensure production no matter your build. It’s also a good week to shuffle the back of your roster given the viable stashes available.
As a refresher, The Drop List consists of players who are rostered in at least 50 percent of Yahoo leagues and are no longer must-have assets, recommended additions are available in over 50 percent of Yahoo leagues, the Watch List contains in-depth notes on fringe waiver adds, and Deep Cuts includes player notes on those rostered in five percent or fewer of Yahoo leagues.
The Drop List
QB: -
RB: A.J. Dillon, Ronald Jones, James White, Mark Ingram
WR: Jerry Jeudy
TE: Jonnu Smith
For the record, I wouldn’t drop Dillon in deeper leagues since he’s still a top contingency player to keep close to one’s chest. But five carries per game (and 19 total touches) isn’t something you’re worried about shedding on thinner benches barring, ideally, a league-winning stash in that last roster spot...Leonard Fournette has out-touched RoJo 36-16 through three games and 22-12 the past two weeks. This isn’t hard...Even in handling the league’s sixth-most carries (46) to date, Ingram has provided the 47th-most fantasy points per game (7.5) since he’s a dud as a receiving back (2/-2)...Smith’s 11 targets the past two weeks are a fairy tale since his usage behind-the-scenes entails fewer snaps (100-59) and routes run (64-29) than Hunter Henry in that stint. I would start any of this week’s suggested pickups over Smith in Week 4.
Overall Top 5
1. Chuba Hubbard
2. Dalton Schultz
3. Tim Patrick
4. Emmanuel Sanders
5. Peyton Barber
High-Stakes Top 5
1. Peyton Barber
2. Dalton Schultz
3. Dan Arnold
4. Dawson Knox
5. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
For those looking to roster the best available player(s) regardless of position, the rankings above take into account every factor from the positional lists minus players’ actual positions for both recreational and high-stakes (FFPC, NFFC, etc.) formats, the latter which have far fewer viable players available with every passing week. These are listed in the precise order I would prioritize waiver claims in those leagues ahead of Week 4. Adjust accordingly for what you need on your roster — touches, high-upside bench stashes, targets, one-week spot-starters, etc.
Contingency Top 10
1. Alexander Mattison
2. A.J. Dillon
3. Chuba Hubbard
4. Kenneth Gainwell
5. Jermar Jefferson
6. Damien Williams
7. Tony Jones
8. Darrel Williams
9. Alex Collins
10. Larry Rountree
For those looking to stash the best available backup(s) with minimum standalone value, the rankings above were designed to help prioritize direct backups in the event a player in front of them were absent. These are listed in the precise order I would stash them ahead of Week 4. Presumed targets, touches, environment, remaining schedule, etc. are included in the process.
Quarterbacks
1. Sam Darnold
2. Ben Roethlisberger
3. Teddy Bridgewater
Running Backs
Zack Moss rostered in 54 percent of Yahoo leagues. No. 1 RB stash if available.
1. Chuba Hubbard
2. Peyton Barber
3. Rhamondre Stevenson
4. Royce Freeman
5. J.J. Taylor
6. Brandon Bolden
Wide Receivers
Cole Beasley rostered in 53 percent of Yahoo leagues. No. 1 WR add if available.
Christian Kirk rostered in 51 percent of Yahoo leagues. No. 2 WR add if available.
1. Tim Patrick
2. Emmanuel Sanders
3. Sammy Watkins
4. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
5. K.J. Osborn
6. Terrace Marshall
Tight Ends
1. Dalton Schultz
2. Dawson Knox
3. Dan Arnold
4. Hunter Henry
5. Evan Engram
Defense/Special Teams
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Cincinnati Bengals
3. Dallas Cowboys
4. Tennessee Titans
Kickers
1. Greg Joseph
2. Evan McPherson
3. Randy Bullock
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QUARTERBACKS
1. Sam Darnold, Panthers — Rostered in 22 percent of Yahoo leagues (Suggested 1-2% FAAB Bid)
Dallas’ defense has received far too much credit through three games, living off a league-high eight turnovers despite registering the league’s second-fewest pressures (16) and getting roasted for 6.7 yards per play (third-most). Darnold has avoided any hang ups against subpar competition to this point (8.3 yards per attempt) and should continue thriving in one of six totals over 50 (50.5) in Week 4.
2. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers — Rostered in 31 percent of Yahoo Leagues (1-2%)
Bear with me. Because Roethlisberger is so washed, the Steelers had no choice but to let him drop back a league-high 63 times (!!!) in Week 3, throwing 58 lawn darts underneath to Najee Harris (19 targets), Chase Claypool (15), and the rest of the team’s skill players. There’s no reason to think that volume disappears, though, since Pittsburgh could again be without Alex Highsmith (groin) and Stephon Tuitt (knee) while T.J. Watt (groin) plays through injury in an impossible spot at Lambeau. Best guess is Ben’s 60-plus attempts in negative game script out-perform Teddy Bridgewater’s fantasy production (see below) against Baltimore this week.
3. Teddy Bridgewater, Broncos — Rostered in 28 percent of Yahoo leagues (1-2%)
Trailing only Lamar Jackson (21.8%) in rate of throws 20-plus yards downfield, Bridgewater (18.9%) and the Broncos are finally offered a worthy adversary to display their newfound aerial attack in what will hopefully be a competitive game script throughout. The Ravens aren’t a worrisome unit (while banged up) either after allowing the sixth-most yards per play (6.2) through three games.
Watch List: Taylor Heinicke has finished as the QB12 and QB9 the past two weeks, averaging 7.8 YPA and six carries in favorable spots against the Giants and Bills (while trailing significantly throughout). Sunday offers another juicy uptempo matchup against Atlanta’s No. 26 pass defense DVOA...The clock is ticking for Jimmy Garoppolo, who has turned the ball over at least once in every game through Week 3; his 6.3 YPA over the last two weeks certainly doesn’t help matters. As noted last week, I would rather stash Trey Lance over Justin Fields and continue to stream at that position until the former wins the job (soon)...We should have a better idea of what Zach Wilson brings to the table by the end of Week 4 since the Jets were unfairly dealt the league’s toughest schedule through their first three games. If digging deep, I still prefer Wilson to Taysom Hill and Mac Jones in SuperFlex leagues.
RUNNING BACKS
1. Chuba Hubbard, Panthers — Rostered in 33 percent of Yahoo leagues (Suggested 40-50% FAAB Bid)
Christian McCaffrey (hamstring) was injured in the second quarter Thursday and immediately ruled out, allowing Hubbard to out-touch Royce Freeman 14-6 the rest of the way. With the team surprisingly keeping McCaffrey on the active roster without a three-week stint on injured reserve, Carolina is logically eyeing Week 6 for his return. That leaves Hubbard as an every-down option for at least two games and, most likely, a contingency option beyond that since this very coaching staff showed no hesitation in force-feeding McCaffrey 28 touches in his first (and only) game back from injury last year. I would have no issues joining the bidding war for Hubbard (even if accounting for the timeline above) if your backfield options are nothing more than puzzle pieces your two-year-old mashed together. With one matchup-proof starter, though, there’s no sense in getting involved unless your roster is confidently set from the top-down for the foreseeable future.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 10-team leagues
Injuries to be ahead of for waiver bids this evening:
— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) September 28, 2021
* CMC = Hubbard
* Gallup = Schultz
* Jeudy/Hamler = Patrick
* Kittle = Ross Dwelley
* Cook = Mattison
* Jacobs = Barber
* White = Stevenson, JJ Taylor
* Henderson = Michel
* AJB = Westbrook-Ikhine
* O’Shaugnessy = Dan Arnold
2. Peyton Barber, Raiders – Rostered in 42 percent of Yahoo leagues (12-15%)
When asked about Barber’s voluminous role, coach Jon Gruden responded, “I think he did more than just run it. We went to him as our third down back...he was helpful in protection. He didn’t blow any assignments"; hence Barber’s increased 11.6% target share and outrageous 26-touch afternoon as the team’s third-down option over Kenyan Drake. With the Raiders merely “hoping” to have Josh Jacobs (ankle) back this week, Barber is the early favorite to tee off against Los Angeles’ run-funnel unit that struggled to contain Ezekiel Elliott (16/71/1), Tony Pollard (13/109/1), and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (17/100) the past two games. Given the questionable (and perhaps shared) roles of those listed below, Barber is arguably the best stash addition ahead of Week 4, too. I would drop Drake outright for him.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 12-team PPR leagues
3. Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots – Rostered in 15 percent of Yahoo leagues (8-10%)
James White’s (hip) long-term absence vacates an 18.9% target share and 10.5 touches per game for any of New England’s runners to soak up/split. Odds are that usage simply falls to J.J. Taylor since he fits White’s role best, but there’s a chance (albeit a small one) Stevenson is active to bring any amount of explosiveness to an anemic offense moving forward. It doesn’t help that special teams ace Brandon Bolden led this backfield in snaps (29) and routes run (21) once White left the field. Stevenson is still worth a stash since his upside (barring another fumble) is greater than Taylor’s or Bolden’s. The other two are ranked below accordingly as it’s entirely possible Stevenson is healthy-scratched on Sunday.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 12-team leagues
4. Royce Freeman, Panthers – Rostered in 29 percent of Yahoo leagues (1-2%)
The reason deeper rosters wrestled over Jake Funk in Week 3 is the same reason to pick up Freeman ahead of Sunday. Even if he fails to add value himself, the Panthers are only one snap away (both literally and figuratively) from having no choice but to turn to him on every down. For what it’s worth, it’s easier to envision a handful of touches in the short-term for Freeman than it is for Stevenson.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 12-team PPR leagues
5. J.J. Taylor, Patriots - Rostered in 0 percent of Yahoo leagues (1-2%)
6. Brandon Bolden, Patriots – Rostered in 16 percent of Yahoo leagues (1-2%)
See Rhamondre Stevenson. Bump Taylor ahead of the rookie if you’re hoping for more immediate production.
Recommendation: Both should be rostered in deep 12-team leagues
Watch List: Four of Giovani Bernard‘s 10 targets on Sunday came with the Buccaneers within one score; the rest were obviously the result of Tampa Bay being in negative game script, something that comes along as often as a full moon. There’s still an outside shot his backfield-high in snaps (33) was a changing-of-the-guard moment since the Bucs have passed the ball at the league’s highest rate in one-score situations and second-highest rate with a lead...Even with Tevin Coleman healthy scratched, Ty Johnson out-snapped Michael Carter 31-23 but got out-touched 11-4 in Denver. Carter would be the player to stash (wherever applicable) if his 73% backfield touch-rate holds in Week 4...Darrel Williams mustered season-highs in carries (7), targets (3), and snaps (27, 34%) in Kansas City’s first game following Cyde Edwards-Helaire’s game-deciding fumble in primetime. It obviously wasn’t enough to garner Williams FLEX value (or doom CEH’s outlook as a confident RB2), but it did prove ‘The Mentor’ is the team’s direct backup over Jerick McKinnon if Edwards-Helaire’s reps were ever (surprisingly) scaled back.
Deep Cuts: Eligible to return for the Titans (if healthy) this week, Darrynton Evans will presumably step back into his role as Derrick Henry‘s direct backup over Jeremy McNichols when ready..Jake Funk handled a single carry on 14 snaps (22%) behind Sony Michel on Sunday, getting out-touched 23-1 without Darrell Henderson. Funk can continue to be stashed just in case Michel were injured.
WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Tim Patrick, Broncos – Rostered in 23 percent of Yahoo leagues (Suggested 10-12% FAAB Bid)
Denver signed former Seahawks wideout David Moore from Las Vegas’ practice squad, but no matter: the Broncos will continue leaning on Courtland Sutton and Patrick following K.J. Hamler’s (torn ACL) season-ending injury. Although Patrick has garnered just nine targets to Sutton’s 17 the past two games, their ceilings from Teddy Bridgewater are a mystery since neither has been needed in a competitive game to date. Baltimore should naturally change that approach in Week 4, enhancing the volume for both through the air out of necessity.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 12-team leagues
2. Emmanuel Sanders, Bills – Rostered in 27 percent of Yahoo leagues (10-12%)
Sanders’ 20 targets pale in comparison to Stefon Diggs’ (32) and Cole Beasley’s (30) but the 34-year-old veteran has quietly accrued the league’s 11th-most air yards (338) through Week 3, tying for the second-most targets 20-plus yards downfield (7) in that span. With at least six targets in every game, Sanders can at least provide value a la Marquez Valdes-Scantling as a boom-or-bust matchup-based option on your bench. This week’s bout against the Texans lacks flair, but Buffalo’s following game against Kansas City is an enticing one to get ahead of.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 12-team leagues
3. Sammy Watkins, Ravens – Rostered in 23 percent of Yahoo leagues (5-8%)
With at least seven targets and a 22% target share in every game for the Ravens thus far, Watkins has felt at home in an offense that has surprisingly averaged a league-high 12.3 air yards per attempt. Rashod Bateman’s (core muscle surgery) return to practice (and eventually game action) threatens Watkins’ long-term outlook, but Baltimore’s issues in competing with Football Outsiders’ No. 24 pass defense DVOA leaves Lamar Jackson no choice but to keep his foot on the gas. Consider Watkins a viable FLEX option opposite a Broncos defense that has yet to be tested — Giants, Jaguars, Jets — through three games. I’d consider foregoing Watkins for Rashod Bateman (groin) in deeper leagues altogether if you can’t foresee using Watkins in the next five games; Baltimore’s bye is in Week 8.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 12-team leagues
4. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Titans – Rostered in 0 percent of Yahoo leagues (2-4%)
NWI — not to be mistaken with Kevin Nash’s faction — led every Titans receiver in snaps (53, 78%) and routes run (27) in place of A.J. Brown (hamstring, week-to-week) on Sunday, finishing with a team-high in red zone targets (2) as Julio Jones was coddled and managed from the third-quarter on. With two road bouts on deck before Tennessee hosts the Bills on Monday Night Football in Week 6, Westbrook-Ikhine is arguably ingrained as Ryan Tannehill’s on-paper go-to option for the next two games. The Jets’ and Jaguars’ secondaries aren’t exactly reasons to leave the former UDFA on waivers in that stretch.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 14-team leagues
5. K.J. Osborn, Vikings – Rostered in 28 percent of Yahoo leagues (5-8%)
His box score (2/26) won’t show it, but Osborn was glued to the field for a route on 78% of Kirk Cousins’ dropbacks Sunday, losing Minnesota’s weekly whack-a-mole contest as their third receiver to Tyler Conklin (7/70/1). Sunday makes for a favorable spot (indoors, nonetheless) if thin at Osborn’s position as this game total against Cleveland has already surged from 51.5 to 54 in 48 hours since opening. Note that Osborn’s suggested FAAB is higher than Westbrook-Ikhine’s since the former is a long-term addition.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in deep 12-team leagues
6. Terrace Marshall, Panthers – Rostered in 14 percent of Yahoo leagues (5-8%)
Marshall isn’t startable in shallower leagues just yet but there’s a real chance Christian McCaffrey’s and Dan Arnold’s absences spare trickle-down opportunity for Robby Anderson and the rookie in three-wide sets. It’s an instance we should be ahead of if exclusively looking to stash a high-upside receiver on your bench.
Recommendation: Should be stashed in 12-team leagues
Watch List: The WR30 in fantasy points per game despite running the fifth-most routes on his own team, Hunter Renfrow has leveraged a 16.2% target share into 5.3 catches per game. Although his usage from the slot isn’t threatened by Willie Snead, Las Vegas’ vast target tree with a number of downfield weapons makes Renfrow’s ceiling non-existent. His floor is still safe as a weekly WR4 for PPR leagues...A.J. Green has run just 11 fewer routes than DeAndre Hopkins for the team lead, though the former has only turned that usage into 10 catches (and a touchdown) on 18 targets. I would much rather bet on Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore for their involvement — and, as it pertains to the latter, his talent — rest of season, which leaves no room to bet on Green on your bench...Marquez Callaway‘s target share has progressively increased in every game (9.5% < 18.1% < 23.8%) ahead of New Orleans’ soft matchup against the Giants...Among the three notable players eligible to return from IR soon, I would rank them Jeff Wilson > Rashod Bateman > Curtis Samuel pending your position of need. Bateman is rumored to open from the slot and eventually force Watkins to become a rotational player in three-wide sets. When that is, however, is truly up for debate...Marquez Valdes-Scantling‘s 13.4% target share over the last two games is similar to last year’s average of 12.6%. The bull case is his production would’ve at least looked different had Aaron Rodgers been accurate on his three deep shots to MVS in Week 2.
Deep Leagues: You’re probably aware that Josh Gordon signed with Kansas City’s practice squad and is trying to get up to speed for a (pending) promotion to the active roster. Last we saw him, the 30-year-old failed to provide any amount of production behind D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, averaging two targets per game on 40% of Seattle’s snaps in 2019. Given his similar situation behind Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, it’s obviously best to spend your flier elsewhere. Having said that: the average human lives 78.8 years before giving way to the great beyond, and it’s probably more fun to roster Gordon than any of the fringe players listed above. If the goal is to maximize your finite amount of time left on this Earth, I genuinely support chasing the nothingness that is Gordon’s value in fantasy leagues...Only one week after running a route on 100% of Matthew Stafford‘s dropbacks, Van Jefferson surprisingly shared Los Angeles’ downfield role with DeSean Jackson, barely out-targeting the veteran 6-5. It’s still possible Jackson was involved solely for Sunday’s concerted blitzkrieg game plan against the Bucs. Thus Jefferson should remain stashed in deeper 12-team leagues...With Sterling Shepard (hamstring) and Darius Slayton (hamstring) battling injuries around Kenny Golladay‘s hip ailment, both Collin Johnson and Kadarius Toney will likely enter New York’s starting lineup against New Orleans. Toney led his position with 34 routes run on Sunday but it was Johnson who fought for seven targets (20% share) and a team-high 80 air yards as the team’s deep threat. Given that Toney’s first-round draft capital is a moot point — Dave Gettleman‘s capital shouldn’t be taken as seriously as other organizations’ — I prefer stashing Johnson over the rookie in a vacuum.
TIGHT ENDS
1. Dalton Schultz, Cowboys — Rostered in 3 percent of Yahoo leagues (Suggested 10-12% FAAB Bid)
Schultz has actually run just one more route than Blake Jarwin (78-77) through three games but has earned significantly more snaps (70% to 53%) and targets (15-10) than his counterpart, good for fifth-overall in fantasy points per game (13.4) at tight end. Although it’s just as likely Jarwin has his two-score day in the sun given the duo’s similar on-field usage, Schultz’s increased 17.1% target share sans Michael Gallup (calf) the past two weeks leaves him as the one we’re forced to chase. At worst, the 25-year-old has proven he’s a viable spike-week starter over Dallas Goedert, Zach Ertz, and other struggling names immediately.
2. Dawson Knox, Bills — Rostered in 11 percent of Yahoo leagues (4-6%)
Not only has Knox’s target share progressively increased in three consecutive games (7.8% < 9% < 11.6%), he’s quietly run a route on 68 of Josh Allen’s 85 dropbacks (80%) in the last two weeks. With two end zone targets in that span, Knox’s involvement is enough to place him on the fringe of the TE1 landscape.
3. Dan Arnold, Jaguars — Rostered in 4 percent of Yahoo leagues (2-4%)
The Jaguars fed James O’Shaughnessy (high-ankle sprain) eight targets in Week 1 and Jacob Hollister six this past week, transparently searching for a receiving tight end to be used underneath. Enter Arnold, who was garnering nearly four targets per game in Carolina. This is simply a bet he’ll get up to speed in Jacksonville in a hurry, being handed a more consistent receiving role than the explosive one that allotted him four touchdowns with the Cardinals last year.
4. Hunter Henry, Patriots — Rostered in 46 percent of Yahoo leagues (1-2%)
Henry has played an increased role the past two games, out-snapping Jonnu Smith 100-59 and running significantly more routes (64-29) as the team’s lead pass-catching tight end. It’s only amounted to one fewer target than Smith (11-10) in that time, but their usage suggests the scales will tip soon.
5. Evan Engram, Giants — Rostered in 39 percent of Yahoo leagues (1-2%)
With Sterling Shepard (hamstring) and Darius Slayton (hamstring) battling injuries around Kenny Golladay (hip), the Giants may have no choice but to lean on Engram following his 39-snap (56%), one-fumble 2021 debut in Week 3. I would still prefer to bet on any of the above options rather than a(ny) tight end under OC Jason Garrett.
Watch List: Tyler Conklin splashed with 7/70/1 on a 21% target share against the Seahawks but that can easily be attributed to Seattle’s poor defense, which had only faced a 17.6% target share to opposing tight ends from the Colts and Titans — two teams that don’t use that position in the slightest — up to Week 3. Even Conklin’s usage was similar, running a route on 62.5% of Kirk Cousins’ dropbacks (compared to 63.3% of his dropbacks in Minnesota’s first two games). He could produce again in a projected high-scoring affair against Cleveland, but Conklin’s production should be viewed as a blip on the radar rather than a weekly trend...Dan Arnold‘s departure to Jacksonville simultaneously frees third-round rookie Tommy Tremble, who only totaled 53 career collegiate targets as the nation’s best in-line blocker because he played behind future MFin Mackey Award winner Michael Mayer last year. It’s a bet that Tremble soaks up Arnold’s four vacated targets per game with a handful of creative usage akin to his end-around for a touchdown on Thursday.
Deep Leagues: Rob Gronkowski‘s X-rays came back negative, so odds are he’s available to play Sunday night. Note that Cam Brate registered five targets to O.J. Howard‘s one in the interim for Gronk on Sunday.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
1. New Orleans Saints – Rostered in 49 percent of Yahoo leagues
With Marshon Lattimore (thumb) back on the field, New Orleans’ defense had no issues stifling the Patriots for a pitiful 4.1 yards per play, 5.2 yards per attempt, and 13 points allowed on 72 plays. They present a similar challenge at home against Daniel Jones and the Giants in the week’s second-lowest total (43.5) among sportsbooks.
2. Cincinnati Bengals – Rostered in 6 percent of Yahoo leagues
Jacksonville’s offense (or lack thereof) has helped opposing defenses finish inside the top-nine in three consecutive games, including last week’s overall D/ST1 performance for Arizona. A home game for Cincinnati on a short turnaround shouldn’t buck that trend.
3. Dallas Cowboys – Rostered in 7 percent of Yahoo leagues
There’s a real chance the Cowboys’ defense is farce since they’re living off a league-high eight turnovers despite getting diced through the air (995 yards), but their offense will at least put the pressure on Carolina and Sam Darnold to force a handful of plays. Any negative fallout and inefficiencies stemming from Christian McCaffrey’s absence is also available to soak up through Dallas’ D/ST.
4. Tennessee Titans – Rostered in 17 percent of Yahoo leagues
New York’s opponents have finished as the overall D/ST6, D/ST3, and D/ST2 through three games. The Titans at the very least offer a high-floor performance unless the Jets shore up their pass-pro overnight.
Watch List: I’m not necessarily opposed to dropping any defense throughout the year, but Miami’s schedule against the Colts on Sunday and Jacksonville in Week 6 meshes perfectly with Denver’s matchup against the Steelers — an offense we want to attack — in Week 5. It just takes a willingness to roster two D/STs.
KICKERS
Only a fool wouldn’t pass the ball to Michael Jordan in his prime, so it only makes sense that I pull each week’s kicker streamers from Denny Carter’s column and #adjust them accordingly. For in-depth analysis, you can read his entire piece here:
1. Greg Joseph, Vikings – Rostered in 4 percent of Yahoo leagues
2. Evan McPherson, Bengals - Rostered in 4 percent of Yahoo leagues
3. Randy Bullock, Titans - Rostered in 0 percent of Yahoo leagues