This is a simple, straightforward piece. At the end of the week, I’ll use our DFS Tools and Composite Staff Rankings from our Season Pass section to find the best values at each position. We’ll look at a player from each position on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo.
Kyler Murray vs. Rams — DraftKings, $7,800
Murray and Patrick Mahomes are the only two quarterbacks top-10 in passing yards and rushing yards (among quarterbacks). However, Murray is third in passing yards and seventh in rushing, both of which lead Mahomes. Our staff rankings have a logjam at the No. 1 spot this week but Murray is one of the three passers tied at QB1. If DraftKings is going to discount him relative to our other QB1 candidates, I’ll take the discount.
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Jalen Hurts vs. Chiefs — Fanduel, $7,900
In the six games Jalen Hurts has started and finished, he’s averaged over 10 rush attempts for nearly 70 yards. He also has two scores on the ground in those games plus another two in the Week 17 outing that he was pulled from last year. His team is a 7.5-point dog to the Chiefs which should up their speed and pass-rate tremendously. All of this culminates in a high-floor/high-ceiling spot for Hurts.
Josh Allen vs. Texans — Yahoo, $34
The Texans have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks through three weeks while facing a handful of uninspiring foes. Among their three opponents, only Carolina ranks as an above-average passing attack by yardage, yet the Texans still look like a weak pass defense. Against the first elite quarterback they’ll face this year, Allen, now out of his three-week slump, will torch them.
David Montgomery vs. Lions — DraftKings, $5,800
Over the last two weeks, David Montgomery has returned to his three-down role. He was targeted once in Week 1 but has eight targets since then. The Bears weren’t able to hold possession last week but should fare better against the lowly Lions and their 24th-ranked run-defense, per Pro Football Focus. Now seeing nearly all of the carries and targets in the Chicago backfield, Montgomery is the same value play he was to close out the 2020 season.
Mike Davis vs. Washington — Fanduel, $5,400
Despite the concerns around Cordarrelle Patterson’s new role, Davis is still top-five in combined rushing and receiving expected fantasy points among running backs. His time is now or never this week as Atlanta hosts Washington as slight underdogs. The Football Team is allowing 125 yards per game on the ground this year but has a reputation as a stout defense, which should make Davis an unpopular play in tournaments.
D’Andre Swift vs. Bears — Yahoo, $16
Swift’s price on Yahoo is egregious. He’s third among running backs in total expected fantasy points based on a hefty receiving workload and solid red zone duties. He is second only to Najee Harris in targets at 23 and is out-touching Jamaal Williams inside his opponents’ 20-yard line 10-6. Yahoo has him priced as an RB3 while our Staff Rankings have him as a clear RB1.
D.J. Moore vs. Cowboys — DraftKings, $6,600
After starting his career as a YAC receiver then morphing into a deep threat last year, Moore has settled in as the alpha wideout he was always meant to be. His weighted opportunity rating, which combines air yards and target share, is top-10 in the league. Moore’s aDOT is down to 10.6, which is perfect for a receiver who is seeing nearly a third of his team’s targets. In a shootout with the Cowboys, he’s a fine play in cash games.
Davante Adams vs. Steelers — Fanduel, $8,100
Adams leads the league in targets (34) and is second in the league in air yards (410). All of those volume stats originate in the hands of Aaron Rodgers, the reigning MVP. He’s fourth in receiving yards despite him and the rest of Green Bay’s starters hitting the bench in the second half of Week 1. Fanduel had the audacity to price him as the WR3 this week.
Mecole Hardman vs. Eagles — Yahoo, $10
I want to ignore Hardman as much as the next DFS degenerate but Yahoo made him the minimum price this week. He’s third on the Chiefs with 15 targets and his team has a 30.5-point implied team total. There are certainly worse punt options on Yahoo.
Will Dissly vs. 49ers — DraftKings, $2,600
With Gerald Everett expected to miss Week 4 while on the COVID list and D’Wayne Eskridge already ruled out, Dissly should be forced to step into a large role for the Seattle offense. It’s rare to find a starting tight end at this low of a price on DraftKings and unheard of for them to play on a hyper-efficient offense. Dissly, who has a track record of successful spot starts, is the best value option at tight end this week.
Mike Gesicki vs. Colts — Fanduel, $5,400
In a one-game sample, Gesicki appears to be a favorite of the Dolphins’ new starting quarterback, Jacoby Brissett. He earned a career-high 12 targets in Brissett’s first start. Brissett’s reliance on check-downs is perfect for Gesicki, who can use his athleticism to make plays after the numerous catches he’ll be earning.
Tyler Higbee vs. Cardinals — Yahoo, $14
Higbee has played on over 90 percent of the Rams’ offensive snaps this year after playing more of a rotational role in 2020. He has also been involved in the red zone, seeing three targets there plus one end zone target. Higbee is a cheap way to access the 29.5-point team total of Los Angeles this week.
