Patriots at Colts
Last year the Patriots played 5 games against top-10 offenses. They went 0-5, allowing an average of 29 ppg.
But this year’s Patriots defense isn’t last year’s Patriots defense.
They are much better.
But how good are they?
That’s the tough part that is impossible to answer. Blame the NFL schedule makers.
The Patriots have played the NFL’s 3rd easiest schedule of NFL offenses.
And if you factor in that they played two of the five best offenses they’ve faced in impossible weather situations consisting of either gale force winds (the Bills) or torrential downpours (the Bucs), plus a third game against one of the offenses (the Browns) without half its offensive line, all of it’s running backs and an injured QB who didn’t practice in full every day leading up to the game.
I’m not saying Bill Belichick is a sorcerer who conjures up weather ahead of great offenses… but I’m also not not saying it.
The rest of the offenses the Patriots faced? 7 of the 8 rank bottom 10 in the NFL.
So how good is this defense?
The Colts come out in games and run a lot out of 11 personnel in the first half of games.
Since Week 8, 45 of the Colts 76 early down RB-runs in the first half are from 11 personnel. These runs have averaged +0.15 EPA/att with 5.5 YPC and 56% success.
Since Week 8, you want to know how many early down RB-runs in the first half the Patriots have faced from 11 personnel?
SEVEN.
SEVEN RB-runs. Of 46 total runs. One of these 7 was a fumble. If we remove that fumble from the calculation, examine what the Patriots run defense has done since Week 8:
Vs 11 personnel: 6 runs, +0.12 EPA/att, 8.0 YPC and 67% success
Vs 12 personnel: 19 runs, +0.18 EPA/att, 7.8 YPC, 47% success
Vs 21 personnel: 13 runs, -0.25 EPA/att, 2.6 YPC, 23% success
Since Week 8, if you remove runs from 21 personnel, where do the Patriots rank defending early down RB-runs in the first half?
2nd worst in the NFL.
On 33 attempts, they’re allowing +0.15 EPA/att, 7.3 YPC and 48% success.
With a high YPC and a lower success rate, it might signal explosive gains, and sure enough, 21% of the runs vs the Patriots in this situation have generated explosive gains of 10+ yards.
That ranks dead last in the NFL, with the average being 10%.
Want to know where the Colts rank offensively on early down RB-runs in the first half since Week 8?
#1 best.
And their explosive run rank? It’s at 17%, which is #3 best
So this week, despite the hype around the Patriots defense, you’ve got the NFL’s #1 run offense which is #3 most explosive going up against the NFL’s 2nd worst run defense which is dead last vs explosive runs.
So while the Patriots run defense on the surface ranks great, it’s clear that’s not necessarily the case.
Now, clearly Bill Belichick will be looking to take away something from the Colts offense.
And if I’m Belichick, I’m looking to take away Johnathan Taylor.
And if they try, #1, good luck. But #2, I think the Colts will be able to successfully pass on this defense.
This may be shocking but on early down passes in the first half of games since Week 8, the #2 most efficient passing attack in the NFL?
It’s the Colts, averaging +0.17 EPA/att, 7.2 YPA and 59% success.
Even more shocking? The #3 most efficient passing attack?
It’s the Patriots, averaging +0.16 EPA/att, 8.8 YPA and 59% success.
But let’s finish the discussion on the Colts.
Bottom line: if the Patriots want to try and remove Jonathan Taylor, they can try. But we saw that identical matchup play out when the Colts took on the NFL’s #1 ranked run defense of the Buccaneers. Frank Reich intelligently switched to the pass in that Week 12 meeting.
In that first half on early downs, Wentz had 19 early down dropbacks, and recorded +0.31 EPA/att, 9.5 YPA and 72% success.
Leaning heavily on the pass, the Colts put up 24 first half points on their own, and led by 10 points at halftime.
In my opinion, the Colts offense is getting massively overlooked this season. They have played 7 top-13 defenses.
They went 6-1 in these games, and averaged 31 ppg.
Since Week 6, they’ve played 6 defenses that rank above average. They’ve scored 30+ points in every single game.
As for the Patriots?
Well as I mentioned, is an even bigger surprise than Colts passing attack.
Mac Jones started his first game in Week 1.
Over the first 9 weeks, he played only 1 team that ranked below average vs the pass.
Over the first 9 weeks, he played 6 games against top-10 pass defenses:
Cowboys
Buccaneers
Panthers
Chargers
Saints
Texans
It was the 3rd toughest start to the season for any passing offense. And Mac was a rookie. And his offensive line was dinged up.
Despite all of that, take a wild guess where the Patriots passing attack ranks from Week 4 onward in the first half of games?
#1 in the NFL.
EPA/att? +0.16 - #1 in the NFL
YPA? 8.3 - #1 in the NFL
Success rate? 56% - #2 in the NFL
Explosive pass rate? 12% - #4 in the NFL
And yet we have people talking down on Mac Jones, acting as if the Patriots have no confidence in him at all.
If you include all 4 quarters, the Patriots merely slip to #2 in EPA/att behind Arizona, but stay #1 in YPA (8.7), #2 in success (56%) and improve to #1 in explosive pass rate (14%).
Point blank, this schedule was downright brutal.
And while there aren’t household names catching the ball, and while the perception of Mac Jones is even less than a game manager, particularly given what he did in his last game out, this passing attack is one of the most efficient and explosive in the NFL right now.
Even include the first 3 weeks of the season and Mac Jones ranks #3 in completion rate (70.3%) and #3 in completion rate over expectation (+3.3%).
The Patriots run in a lot of their touchdowns so his TD total isn’t high (16) and he’s made some mistakes along the way (8 interceptions) so his TD:INT numbers won’t steal your heart.
But Mac is balling right now.
And did I mention one critical element?
We’ve never seen a rookie QB have to wait for his bye until Week 14.
It’s pretty preposterous. Teams clean things up in the passing game, fix things offensively, cater to what the rookie QB likes, do a lot of self-scouting. To not be able to do that until Week 14 is crazy.
Now, we’ll get to watch Mac after the bye to find out what they improved and added.
And he’ll look to attack the weakness of the Colts defense.
The Colts have the NFL’s #5 run defense but rank just #17 against the pass despite playing the 5th easiest schedule of opposing passing attacks.
And if we want to talk schedule, let’s not just rag on the Patriots schedule.
The Colts pass defense has played 8 games against pass offenses that ranked 20th or worse.
They played above average passing attacks:
#1 Bucs – lost 38-31
#4 Rams – lost 27-24
#7 49ers – won 30-18
#12 Seahawks – lost 28-7
#13 Bills – won 41-15
Two of these 5 games came in terrible weather conditions (a monsoon in San Francisco and wind & rain all game long in Buffalo). Neither of those teams topped 18 points.
The 3 games played in good conditions saw those offenses put up between 38 and 27 points and win every one of those games against the Colts.
Now the Colts must face the NFL’s #2 passing attack which ranks #1 since Week 4 and this game won’t be hampered by any weather conditions.
This game is crazy to me.
Public perception is nuts. People view this game as a low scoring affair on paper, as public perception has a Patriots offense that doesn’t trust it’s QB and possessing a top-5 defense… matching up against a Colts team led by Carson Wentz, I don’t’ believe that to be the case.
Might I remind you that both these defenses have played the 3rd & 4th easiest schedules of offenses while both these offenses rank top-10 in the NFL despite each playing top-10 toughest schedules of defenses this year.
If it’s not clear by now, I like this over and bet it at 44 points and still see value at 44.5 and 45 points.
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers
This Falcons offense ranks #29 on the season but in large part it’s a result of this insane schedule they’ve been playing.
From Week 7 onward, the Falcons played 7 of 8 games against defenses that rank 11th or better.
Now they have to go up against the #8 defense of the 49ers.
But there’s one way to beat the 49ers defense, and that’s to pass the ball on them. The 49ers have the NFL’s #3 run defense and the #21 pass defense.
Atlanta’s offense is one of the most nonsensical from a run/pass rate.
On first downs, this team is the #2 most run-heavy team in the NFL.
They run the ball on 58% of their offensive plays. Atlanta is averaging 3.6 yards per first down rushing play, 29th in the league.
Then, on 2nd and 3rd downs, they switch into the #2 most pass-heavy team in the NFL, passing on 75% of their offensive plays.
There isn’t another team close to this silly.
The other top-5 teams in run rate on first down (TEN, ARI, CHI, PHI) all remain top-10 run heavy on second and third down.
The other top-5 teams in pass rate on second and third down (TB, NYJ, PIT, LV) all are top-12 pass heavy on first down.
Wide receiver Deebo Samuel has just one catch in each of his past three games, seeing just seven total targets over that span. He has made his living as a running back, rushing 22 times for 182 yards and four touchdowns in those games.
But here are his yardages in these games by run distance:
Week 11 vs the Jaguars:
25
21
12
11
9
2
0
-1
Week 12 vs the Vikings:
49
20
3
3
-3
-6
Week 14 vs the Bengals:
27
4
3
2
2
2
0
-3
The “surprise” has dwindled on a week-by-week basis as defenses have anticipated these runs better due to their frequency.
On pass plays, Samuel is still running pass routes at a high volume (91.1%) in those games, the passing targets just have not been found like early in the season. Two things are in play here. One is the obvious return of George Kittle paired with Brandon Aiyuk getting out of the doghouse. The second is that Elijah Mitchell has missed two of the past three games. Those things in unison have altered Samuel’s usage in an inherently low-volume offense.
After playing primarily top-half pass defenses over the second half of the season, Jimmy Garoppolo gets a great matchup vs the 4th worst pass defense in the NFL. And that’s come despite playing the 7th easiest schedule of pass offenses.
Any above average pass offense has lit up this Falcons defense. Bucs put up 48 and 30. Cowboys put up 43. Eagles put up 32. Patriots put up 25 and that’s only because they wanted to get out of dodge so they ran the ball to death during a 25-0 win.
Jimmy Garoppolo gets a terrible rep around the NFL. But he’s 5th in EPA/att on early downs in the first 3 quarters of games and top-10 in CPOE. He’s averaging over 8 YPA as well.
