Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em is geared toward season-long leagues but can also be used for daily fantasy purposes.
QUARTERBACK
Start of the Week: Cam Newton vs. Cardinals -- The overall QB13 on the season, Newton has stepped his game up in recent weeks after fighting through the COVID fog Weeks 6-7 following his return from the virus. Across Weeks 8-11, Newton is the overall QB10 in fantasy points per game and has a passing score in back-to-back games after managing two in his first seven contests. Cam also has four rushing touchdowns over his last four outings and leads all quarterbacks with 26 red-zone carries. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 22nd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and have surrendered the third-most rushing yards to the position. They’re also a bottom-of-the-pack 27th in opponent plays per game thanks to their offense being No. 1 in pace. This sets up as a volume opportunity for the New England offense that is a middling 17th in plays per game. Dual-threat QBs Russell Wilson (6-84, 10-42), Josh Allen (7-38), Tua Tagovailoa (7-35), and Teddy Bridgewater (6-32-1) have all experienced success running the ball against Arizona while Cam is averaging 9-38-1 per week on the ground.
Starts
Derek Carr at Falcons -- Carr is coming off arguably his best game of the season, completing over 74% of his passes for 275 yards and three touchdowns against the Chiefs last Sunday night en route to the week’s QB8 performance. He has multiple touchdown passes in 7-of-10 games this season and a sterling 19:3 TD:INT mark on the year. A zero-ball as a rusher, however, keeps Carr’s weekly floor low as the overall QB23 in fantasy points per game. Carr also refuses to throw deep, averaging a middling 7.7 yards per attempt for the year, but his 6.1% touchdown rate would easily be a new career best and well above his norm of 4.5%. The Falcons are dead last in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, 26th in pass-defense DVOA, and 26th in adjusted sack rate. Carr should have clean pockets to work in all afternoon. Taysom Hill and Drew Lock have both posted top-four weeks versus Atlanta in the Falcons’ last two games. Carr doesn’t have a high ceiling, but his floor is heightened in an easy matchup with a 54-point total. Vegas’ implied team total of 28.5 points is the third-highest of Week 12.
Philip Rivers vs. Titans -- After throwing 0-1 touchdowns each game Weeks 1-5, Rivers has three three-touchdown games over the Colts’ last five games as the overall QB14 in fantasy points per contest in that span. A weekly goose egg as a runner, though, keeps Rivers as a floor play rather than a ceiling option. When these two teams met in Week 10, Rivers fired off 39 pass attempts, completing over 74% of them for 308 yards and a touchdown. And the Titans are 27th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, 26th in adjusted sack rate, and 25th in pass-defense DVOA. Pocket passers Nick Foles (335 yards, 2 TDs), Joe Burrow (249, 2), Ben Roethlisberger (268, 2), Kirk Cousins (251, 3), and Gardner Minshew (339, 3) have all experienced success against Tennessee. The Colts and Titans are both top-12 in offensive pace, and this game has a 51.5-point total. Rivers has also played much better in domed environments with an 11:4 TD:INT mark compared to 3:4 outdoors. He’s a safe two-QB league option and offers some stream-ability in 12-team leagues. Indy is implied to score 27.25 points.[[ad:athena]]
Tom Brady vs. Chiefs -- Brady is coming off another horrific primetime performance, throwing for just 216 yards with a pair of interceptions in the Bucs’ Week 11 Monday night loss to the Rams. Chiefs-Bucs is being played at 4:25 PM ET this Sunday, putting Brady back in position for a rebound effort. #AngryTom will be in full effect after coach Bruce Arians again was outspoken in the media this week, wondering if 43-year-old Brady has been confused by coverages defenses are throwing at him. This game’s 56-point total puts pretty much every skill player on both offenses in play for fantasy purposes. Both offenses are top-15 in pace, and the Chiefs just got blow-torched by Derek Carr for 275 yards and three touchdowns as the QB8 last week. K.C. is a middling 15th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, but the high-octane nature of the offense keeps the defense in shootout, comeback mode. I like Brady to bounce back with multiple touchdown passes, something he’s done in 7-of-10 games this season.
Sits
Ryan Tannehill at Colts -- Tannehill had a bounce-back game in Baltimore last week as the overall QB6 with 259 yards, two touchdowns, and 35 rushing yards. But he hasn’t attempted more than 31 passes in a game since Week 6 and was shut down by this Indy defense in Week 10 when the Colts held him to 147 yards, one touchdown, and a season-low 55.5% completion rate on just 27 attempts. Tannehill was the overall QB21 in fantasy that week. The Colts are fourth in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, sixth in pass-defense DVOA, and third in opponent plays per game. Missing stud DT DeForest Buckner (COVID) is a major blow to Indy’s defensive front, but DC Matt Eberflus has trotted out top-end pass defenses that limit big plays. Tannehill should be viewed as a two-QB league play only with a scary-low fantasy floor.
Carson Wentz vs. Seahawks -- Fans and local media have been calling for Wentz’s head in recent weeks, begging the Eagles to bench him, but coach Doug Pederson continues to stick by the former No. 2 overall pick despite a league-leading 14 interceptions and 14:14 TD:INT mark. Wentz is somehow still the overall QB15 in fantasy points per game on the year and gets a juicy Monday night matchup with a Seahawks secondary that is 31st in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and 27th in pass-defense DVOA. However, the sad state of the Philly offense and Wentz’s inability to take advantage of previous easy matchups keeps him off the streaming map outside of two-QB leagues. The Eagles’ implied team total of 22.5 points is the eighth-lowest.
Tua Tagovailoa at Jets -- Fresh off his fourth-quarter benching last week, Tagovailoa is being put back under center against the Jets despite dealing with a thumb injury. Ryan Fitzpatrick is by far the more exciting playmaker in Miami, but coach Brian Flores is moving forward with the rookie as the Dolphins flirt with a playoff spot. Despite the easy matchup with a Jets Defense that is 29th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and dead last in pass-defense DVOA, the passing volume just hasn’t been there for Tagovailoa. He’s fired off 22, 28, 25, and 20 attempts in his four starts with no rushing output (0, -1, and 0 yards) in three of those games. Playing deliberate, low-volume offense while relying more on their running backs, the Dolphins have become unwatchable with Tua at quarterback. He’s the overall QB30 in fantasy points per game since taking over in Week 8. Nick Foles, Nick Mullens, and Alex Smith are out-scoring him.
RUNNING BACK
Start of the Week: Wayne Gallman at Bengals -- The Giants are coming off their bye week. Devonta Freeman (ankle, hamstring) is still out and on I.R. after suffering a setback ahead of Week 10. After playing just four snaps in Week 6, Gallman has handled 62 touches and has scored in four straight games while playing a little over 50% of the snaps while Dion Lewis and Alfred Morris split the remaining opportunities. In the Week 10 win over the Eagles, Gallman handled 19 touches on 59% of the playing time. With Joe Burrow (knee) done for the year, The Giants go into Cincinnati as touchdown favorites and the Bengals starting third-stringer Brandon Allen after Ryan Finley again looked like trash in relief of Burrow last Sunday. Cincinnati pretty much has no shot in this one, giving Gallman plenty of opportunities. He has a shot at 20-plus touches for the first time all year and gets to tee off on a Bengals front that has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to running backs and is 23rd in run-defense DVOA. Antonio Gibson (16-94-1) and Derrick Henry (12-112-1) have both lit Cincy up over the last few weeks. Gallman obviously doesn’t have their talent, but volume and playing time is very much on his side. The Bengals are going to tank the rest of the year. Gallman is a top-18 Week 12 play with upside.
Starts
Kalen Ballage at Bills -- Austin Ekeler (hamstring) remains on injured reserve but hinted he’s close to a return and returned to practice this week, opening his 21-day window for activation. He’s probably another week away. Justin Jackson (knee) is also still on I.R. Over the last three weeks, Ballage has out-touched Joshua Kelley 63-27 and played 67% of the snaps to Kelley’s 13% last week against the Jets. Ballage’s 23 touches produced just 71 empty yards, however, as one of Week 11’s biggest fantasy disappointments. Everything is here for Ballage to rebound, though. He has a strong grip on the lead-back job for the Bolts and also gets the pass-game usage with 18 targets in his three weeks with the team. The Bills are 18th in fantasy points allowed to running backs and 26th in run-defense DVOA. Coach Sean McDermott is fine trading some big run plays for tougher pass defense. Both the Chargers and Bills are top-nine in offensive pace while the Bolts are No. 1 in total plays per game. Averaging 21 touches in three games atop the depth chart, Ballage is an upside RB2 in a shootout with a 53-point total.
Jonathan Taylor vs. Titans -- After setting new season-lows in playing time (34%, 31%, 24%) Weeks 8-10 and handling just 17 combined touches Weeks 9 and 10, Taylor played 56% of the snaps against Green Bay in Week 11 and totaled 114 yards on 26 touches. Despite reports that Nyheim Hines would have an expanded role after his big Week 10 against these Titans, he played just 33% of the snaps against the Packers. Wilkins was back in the distant RB3 role on 11% of the playing time. Hopefully Taylor can build off his Week 11 and return RB2 results through the fantasy playoffs. He needs to be added where dropped after he was left for dead. The Titans are 25th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. J.K. Dobbins (15-70-1), Hines (12-70-1), Giovani Bernard (15-62-1), and Samaje Perine (10-32-1) have all met or exceeded expectations against Tennessee over the last three weeks. Taylor has RB1 upside.
Damien Harris vs. Cardinals -- Harris has 70-plus yards and/or one touchdown in four straight games and is averaging 16 touches as the overall RB17 in half-PPR points per contest in that span. He has just one catch over those four games, making Harris about as one-dimensional as they come, but the sophomore has taken over as the Patriots’ lead back on early downs. Sony Michel was activated off I.R. ahead of Week 11 but was a healthy scratch. He may play this week after Rex Burkhead wrecked his knee last week, but Harris has earned the 1A gig. The danger with Harris is always going to be Cam Newton’s presence at the goal line. Cam leads all quarterbacks with 26 red-zone carries and has nine rushing touchdowns in nine games. Similar to Harris in playing style, Carlos Hyde (14-79-1) gashed the Cardinals last week. Harris is an RB2/3 in a game the Patriots should be up in pace and be able to stay competitive.
Sits
Darrell Henderson vs. 49ers -- The Rams have gone with a full-blown three-man RBBC over the last couple weeks. In the Week 11 win over the Bucs, Henderson led the trio in playing time (46%) and rushing attempts (8), but Brown (38%) led in rushing yards (20), and Akers (17%) scored the lone touchdown. When all three are playing, none are reliable fantasy options. The Rams have been shifting to more pass-happy concepts recently, as well, which is more exciting for this offense. The Niners are eighth in fantasy points allowed to running backs and seventh in run-defense DVOA. You’re on your own when trying to figure out Los Angeles’ backfield.
Frank Gore vs. Dolphins -- The Jets are 0-10 and still featuring Gore as their lead back. Out of the bye last week, Gore played a season-high 58% of the snaps against the Chargers and posted a 15-61-1 rushing line. He’s yet to top 63 yards in a game this season. Rookie Lamical Perine suffered a high-ankle sprain in the same game and is now on I.R. With Perine out at least three weeks, the Jets signed RB Josh Adams off their practice squad. Gore is a last-ditch RB3/4 for RB-desperate fantasy players against a Dolphins team that is 21st in fantasy points allowed to running backs and 29th in run-defense DVOA. I just can’t bet on a 37-year-old back in a bad offense. The Jets are implied to score 18.5 points, the second-lowest of Week 12.
Ronald Jones vs. Chiefs -- Leonard Fournette out-snapped Jones 52% to 36% in Week 11 against the Rams and also scored the lone touchdown of the duo, though the two backs combined for just 41 yards and the score on 17 carries. Fournette also dropped three passes. Fournette is still the better bet fantasy-wise moving forward, but we saw Jones hang a 23-192-1 rushing line in Week 10. This backfield is very difficult to figure out week to week. But as the pass-game back, Fournette is the preferred play in Week 12 against the Chiefs with the Bucs installed as three-point underdogs. He’s out-targeted Jones 26-13 over the last five games.
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WIDE RECEIVER
Start of the Week: Antonio Brown vs. Chiefs -- Through three games with the Bucs, Brown is tied for the team-lead with 26 targets and is coming off a 13-target barrage from friend Tom Brady last week against the Rams. Brown has just 157 scoreless yards to show for his 26 looks, but he’s getting more and more comfortable and in better game shape by the week. Brown made some sticky grabs against L.A. last week and should find more room to work against the Chiefs in what profiles as a back-and-forth shootout style game. The 56-point total for Chiefs-Bucs is the highest of Week 12, and Brady won’t deny he has an eye for Brown on easy pitch-and-catch throws. Brown’s biggest obstacle is Brady’s preference to throw to Mike Evans in the scoring area. Evans leads the league with 13 targets inside the 10-yard line this year. Still, Brown should be treated as a high-floor WR3 with upside in the game of the week.
Starts
Sterling Shepard at Bengals -- Since returning from I.R. in Week 7, Shepard is averaging eight targets per game and has at least six catches in all four contests. Shepard isn’t exactly a ceiling play, as he’s yet to top 75 yards in a game this season, but his floor is raised considerably in PPR formats as Daniel Jones’ favorite target. Darius Slayton is the upside option if chasing big points. Both are on the WR3 map facing a Bengals secondary that is 24th in fantasy points allowed to wideouts and 28th in pass-defense DVOA. Shepard’s bankable target share is valuable, even if he’s unlikely to get loose for big-play touchdowns.
Michael Pittman vs. Titans -- The second-round rookie has started the last three games for the Colts and played at least 80% of the snaps in all three en route to a combined 14-223-1 line on 18 targets in that span. Pittman has evolved into Philip Rivers’ new Mike Williams as the big-bodied, big-play weapon, averaging nearly 16 yards per catch since Week 9. Back in Week 10, Pittman turned in his first 100-yard game, going 7-101 on eight targets with a 21-yard carry against this same Titans Defense. Tennessee is 27th in fantasy points allowed to wideouts and 25th in pass-defense DVOA. The overall WR27 in half-PPR points per game over the last three weeks, Pittman is an upside WR2/3 in a game with a 51.5-point total played in a fantasy-friendly dome. The Colts are top-10 in plays per game while the Titans are 31st in opponent plays.
Robby Anderson at Vikings -- Anderson is fourth in the NFL in targets and catches but has just one touchdown to his name, and that came all the way back in the season opener. He’s long overdue for a big game and trip to the end zone. And the Panthers are getting Teddy Bridgewater back under center after he missed Week 11 with a knee injury. The Vikings are 30th in fantasy points allowed to receivers. Amari Cooper (6-81), CeeDee Lamb (4-34-1), Allen Robinson (5-43), Danny Amendola (7-77), Marvin Jones (3-43-1), and Davante Adams (7-53-3) have all met or exceeded expectations against the Vikings this month. Anderson is a WR3.
Sits
Tee Higgins vs. Giants -- Higgins saw a season-high 10 targets last week against Washington but turned them into a scoreless 3-26 receiving line. Joe Burrow is now done for the year with a wrecked knee, and the Bengals are turning to third-string, small-handed journeyman Brandon Allen after sophomore Ryan Finley was pitiful in relief of Burrow last Sunday. A coach’s pet of Zac Taylor, Allen has a 46.4% career completion rate on 84 attempts and averaged just 171 yards per game with a 3:2 TD:INT mark in three spot starts for the Broncos last season. Good luck trying to figure out this Bengals Offense in the aftermath of the devastating Burrow injury. Cincinnati’s implied team total of 19 points even seems high against the Giants this week.
Travis Fulgham vs. Seahawks -- Fulgham has played over 90% of the Eagles’ offensive snaps over the last four weeks, but he’s coming off back-to-back down outings against the Giants and Browns where he’s mustered identical 1-8-0 receiving lines on a total of 12 targets. All we have to hang our hat on with Fulgham is his playing time and target share after leading the Eagles with seven targets last week. Carson Wentz is playing so poorly, and the Philly offense is broken as a whole. The matchup is plus-plus with the Seahawks dead last in fantasy points allowed to wideouts and 27th in pass-defense DVOA, but this could be more of a get-right spot for Seattle’s defense after the Eagles have failed to deliver in previous prime spots. Fulgham is a low-floor WR4 with the Eagles implied to score 22.5 points, the eighth-fewest of Week 12.
Brandon Aiyuk at Rams -- Aiyuk has 100 yards and/or one touchdown in each of his last four games and is the overall WR13 in half-PPR points per contest in that span. Deebo Samuel (hamstring) has been out since Week 7 but is expected back this week. Samuel’s return coupled with the difficult on-paper draw against the Rams’ elite pass defense has Aiyuk looking more like a WR4 than the WR2 he was prior to the 49ers’ bye. The Rams are first in fantasy points allowed to opposing wideouts and seventh in pass-defense DVOA. And the 45-point total for 49ers-Rams is one of the lowest of Week 12. San Francisco is implied to score 19.25 points.
TIGHT END
Start of the Week: Hunter Henry at Bills -- Coming off a 4-48-1 line on seven targets against the Jets, Henry has scored in back-to-back games after finding the end zone just once in Weeks 1-9. The data was there suggesting positive regression in the touchdown department for Henry, and his 48 yards last Sunday were his most since Week 3. The Bills struggle to cover the middle of the field and are 32nd in catches, 31st in yards, and 31st in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Playing in one of the more exciting games of Week 12 with a 54-point total and coming off two straight outings with a touchdown, Henry is a lock-and-load, cinch top-five TE1 play.
Starts
Evan Engram at Bengals -- Since Sterling Shepard returned from I.R. in Week 7, he and Engram are tied for the team lead with 32 targets. Engram has at least five catches for 45 yards in three of those four games and scored his first touchdown of the season two weeks back. He now draws a Bengals unit that is 29th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. An every-down tight end pacing his team in targets is more than enough to make Engram an every-week TE1.
Austin Hooper at Jaguars -- Hooper has just three catches for 44 scoreless yards on seven targets in two games since returning from his appendectomy, but he’s pacing the Browns’ tight ends in snaps and gets an easy on-paper matchup against the Jaguars, who are 28th in fantasy points allowed to the position. Eric Ebron took advantage last week with a 4-36-1 effort against Jacksonville. Hooper’s floor is insanely low in a low-volume passing attack, but he’s streamable.
Mike Gesicki at Jets -- Gesicki has 40-plus yards in three straight games, but he hasn’t scored since Week 3 and hasn’t seen more than five targets in a game since Week 5. But with Preston Williams (foot) on I.R., it has opened up more looks for Gesicki behind DeVante Parker. The Jets are 23rd in fantasy points allowed to tight ends and have given up big games to Hunter Henry (4-48-1), Travis Kelce (8-109-1), and “Kevin Tyler” (4-64) over the last four weeks.
Sits
Tight end is a crapshoot, and all we’re looking for are tight ends who can find the end zone and/or see volume in terms of targets. Predicting touchdowns is the hardest thing to do in football. Just finding a tight end who is on the field enough and runs plenty of routes is difficult enough. It’s why having Travis Kelce and Darren Waller is such an advantage in fantasy.
