Press conferences: They’re either the most important thing in the world or something to be entirely ignored, depending on if they validate how you already felt or not. Nonetheless, they are an important window into an NFL organization. Much as the eye in the sky don’t lie about players, coaches can’t cover up every emotion or lean they have when they’re asked questions. In omission, or in tone, even someone as tight-lipped as Bill Belichick or Nick Caserio can give something away. And that’s what this column scans for.
Let’s look at some of the trickiest situations for Week 9 lineups.
D’Andre Swift should play, but should you trust him?
The good news is that Dan Campbell said that D’Andre Swift would probably be up for Week 9. The bad news was every other piece of information around it.
Dan Campbell on D'Andre Swift Week 9 pic.twitter.com/xLlttxvyW1
— rivers mccown (alt) (@mccownclips) November 4, 2022
“We’ll see where he’s at” is a terrifying sentence about a player who ducked out in the middle of last week’s game with just five carries and five catches to his name. While RBs coach Duce Staley spoke with reporters today and said that there was some upward trend in Swift’s progress, Swift himself did not sound quite as adamant in talking with reporters this week:
Here’s the big problem: Swift is gifted with a wildly interesting matchup this week. The Lions have had a terrible defense this year, but the Packers have been downright muzzled through the air over the last couple of weeks. The Packers also cannot stop the run to save their lives, as they’re 31st in run defense DVOA, ahead of only the Texans. And oh yeah, by the way, All-Pro inside linebacker De’Vondre Campbell was ruled out on Friday. Between a decently totaled game hovering around 49-50 points and these facts, it’s hard to understand Swift not busting some big plays as long as he actually can stay on the field.
My risk tolerance for these sorts of things might be high, but I almost think you have to roll with Swift even despite the rhetoric. Obviously you’re unlikely to have better in season-long leagues because he probably cost you a second-round pick at worst. But even in DFS, I kind of think Swift is such a galaxy brain pick that it could just pay off. The Packers have been Down Bad for weeks. It’s time to see if they’re Down Bad enough to lose to the Lions.
Ryan Tannehill Ankle Watch Week 2
I want to show you some Tweets from earlier today before I talk about how Ryan Tannehill was listed as “limited” today. Here’s the one I’m thinking of in particular.
#Titans practice on Fri.
— John Glennon (@glennonsports) November 4, 2022
Not spotted during open portion of practice: Simmons, Hooker, Dupree, B. Jones, K. Strong, Carter.
Tannehill came out on field toward the end of stretch period.
Does that sound like a man who was truly limited? Or does it sound like someone who noticed the media was there and we should probably make it look like there’s a chance? Here are Vrabel’s full comments on Tannehill on Friday:
Vrabel on Tannehill Week 9 pic.twitter.com/hbNPVUDH2a
— rivers mccown (alt) (@mccownclips) November 4, 2022
By the way, Vrabel fielded a few questions during that presser about if they can expect “more” from Malik Willis if he plays -- those questions spoke pretty loudly to me that the media understands it’s likely to be Willis on Sunday. Heck, some of Nashville’s press corps are clamoring for Logan Woodside.
I think there’s an interesting argument to be made for starting Willis in Superflex leagues on Sunday -- I’m pretty sure that the Titans are going to give up a lot of points to Patrick Mahomes because that’s kind of what they do when they face a real passing offense. I don’t think Derrick Henry will be enough to keep up. I think that Willis’ raw play will look pretty ugly because I watched him play the Texans last week and noticed that they threw exactly one time in the entire second half without much of a lead. But his fantasy numbers could be prettier than the reality because of his rushing upside and ability to make plays out of structure when given a chance. They may need to give him a chance.
James Conner Game-Time Decision Count: 3
Alright, here’s our latest James Conner game-time decision of the season:
Arizona Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury says DJ Humphries and James Conner are feeling better but remain gametime decisions against the Seahawks on Sunday pic.twitter.com/ZB0KvzYxVC
— Bo Brack (@BoBrack) November 4, 2022
Can always count on Kliff for some cutting-edge insight, thanks Kliff! Conner has not played since Week 5, he does not have a single game all season that would count as “RB1" outside of Week 1’s five-catch, 10-rushes with a touchdown bit. The Cardinals have been a boom-bust run offense without many booms, and they just had 78 rushing yards against a Vikings unit missing Dalvin Tomlinson. Meanwhile, Seattle’s run defense has allowed 131 total yards since Week 6, and only allowed Kyler Murray‘s 10/100 line to actually hurt them against the Cardinals in Week 6’s win.
Between the bad vibes of the team, the uncertainty of how healthy Conner is, and the defense they’re running up against (one that held the Cardinals to an admittedly-bad kicker influenced nine points), I’d be extremely wary of letting Conner go this week in your lineups. It’s a bye week and I understand it, I might have to make the same decision. But I would break ties against Conner if he’s active. I sort of feel like the only way this cashes out in your favor is the touchdown-or-bust angle, particularly if he’s eased back into the lineup with Eno Benjamin getting time still.
