Press conferences: They’re either the most important thing in the world or something to be entirely ignored, depending on if they validate how you already felt or not. Nonetheless, they are an important window into an NFL organization. Much as the eye in the sky don’t lie about players, coaches can’t cover up every emotion or lean they have when they’re asked questions. In omission, or in tone, even someone as tight-lipped as Bill Belichick or Nick Caserio can give something away. And that’s what this column scans for.
Let’s look at some of the trickiest situations for Week 10 lineups.
Josh Allen and the great hidden practice session of 2022
I think it’s been pretty obvious from the tone and tenor of what’s been happening that Josh Allen is unlikely to play on Sunday. He didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday, and was only filmed practicing in his “limited” Friday session by a total fluke. Once they caught him on camera, Allen ran.
Here is Josh Allen at the end of #Bills practice today.
— Jon Scott (@JonScottTV) November 11, 2022
No brace or sleeve seen on right elbow, but appears to be taped.
Once he notices media inside the team's fieldhouse, Allen runs off to locker room. pic.twitter.com/fsCvEO2nBk
Sean McDermott would call Allen “hour by hour,” which I believe is the name of a knockoff Girl Talk album.
I actually think this is pretty cut-and-dry: I don’t think the Bills are going to play Allen. I think this was a test of the elbow to see how everything looks. The background on the injury has always made it feel more serious than the Bills have presented it as, and the fact that they didn’t even want him at media practice paints a picture of a team with something to hide.
Obviously there is some ballgame left, but heading into Sunday I’d be approaching things like Allen was sitting out. Case Keenum is a worthy QB2 in superflex leagues, and, well, with the way quarterback is this year, might be an Allen manager’s best backup plan.
The Bills don’t necessarily seem like the kind of organization that would push Allen if he couldn’t play through this at 90% of himself. I’m not saying that this means that Allen will sit multiple weeks, but I do think it should at least be on the radar if he is ruled out on Sunday.
Kyler Murray‘s hamstring: This Is Fine
God, how do I wind up having to watch Kliff Kingsbury every week? Anyway, Kyler Murray spoke on Wednesday which is generally a good sign that a player will play ... but he spoke and did not say anything at all about his hamstring injury. That is an interesting piece to start with. Kliff Kingsbury appears to be an Ian Rapoport source because I want you to listen to what Kliff says when asked about this on Friday:
Kingsbury on Kyler Week 10 pic.twitter.com/aYiWvSnaci
— rivers mccown (alt) (@mccownclips) November 11, 2022
Then compare and contrast that answer to what Ian Rapoport says here:
From @GMFB: Breaking down where it all stands for injuries to #Rams QB Matthew Stafford, #AZCardinals QB Kyler Murray and #Bills QB Josh Allen. pic.twitter.com/Y2EOKTGQxe
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 11, 2022
Listen, if you’re holding on to hope of Kyler Murray playing this week in spite of warnings about him not being able to run, I get it. This year has been abysmal for quarterbacks not named Geno Smith. Seemingly everyone is a disappointment of some sort. But I do think for DFS purposes, the idea that Kyler will play through this caps a lot of his upside. In season-long leagues, if you’re weighting him against a bottom 20 guy like, I dunno, Trevor Lawrence? I’d probably still play Murray. But nothing that we’ve heard come out of this sounds encouraging for Murray’s upside cases. The idea of “getting him to game day” is rough, and I think the Cardinals may have already thrown in the towel on this week if they weren’t desperate to win games.
I would tentatively expect him to play if I had to choose, but I don’t feel strongly about it. The only thing I feel strongly about is that we won’t see a lot of running if he does play.
Jerick McKinnon opens the door for the other Chiefs running backs
There was one injury that I thought flew under the radar on Friday. Jerick McKinnon had gotten in back-to-back full practices on his shoulder/knee designation, but slipped to limited on Friday and, more importantly, added a “hamstring” in his injury designation.
I'm not sure I've ever seen an injury report designation quite like Jerick McKinnon's. pic.twitter.com/UBcKDguA4c
— Joshua Brisco (@jbbrisco) November 11, 2022
The Chiefs did no media availabilities after the practice -- we have no explanation from them on this -- but the downgrade and specifically the addition to me portend that McKinnon will have a tough time playing on Sunday. There are no “simple” hamstring injuries in the NFL. For further proof, please see Keenan Allen‘s last 8 weeks. The fact that whatever it was hit here makes me think it’s downright implausible that McKinnon will be cleared. Even if he somehow were to be active, there’s no way he’d have anywhere near the same workload.
That to me makes Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Isiah Pacheco upside plays this week. The Jaguars have allowed the 13th-most running back fantasy points per game, and they’ve shown the ability to get gashed in a big way when they can’t win on the edge. You throw in the extra volume for those two backs, then you look at Mecole Hardman‘s absence as well as part of the gadget play game. I think we could see Edwards-Helaire as a low-end RB2 in PPR leagues, and because the blowout potential exists, I like Pacheco as a potential slate-breaker in DFS. Things have just come together for these two in a wild way this week, a way where I have to admit that even as a charter member of the He Can’t Keep Getting Away With It club on Edwards-Helaire, this looks like a nice spot for him.
McKinnon’s injury status for Week 11 is TBD, of course, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this was an injury that costs him multiple games. The Chiefs have playoff ambitions and will need their most-trusted back for that stretch.
