For fantasy managers, Week 16 brings with it the excitement and pressure of the playoffs. The stakes are that much higher. The rewards for victory that much greater. Everything is amplified. It’s a rush.
It’s also a rush the Denver Broncos will be having no part of in 2022.
Last Sunday’s win over the Arizona Cardinals notwithstanding, the Broncos are a dumpster fire. The Russell Wilson trade has the makings of being the biggest gaffe in the NFL since the Vikings jump-started the Dallas Cowboys dynasty of the ‘90s with the Herschel Walker trade. The offense has been putrid most of the season.
However, Denver’s defense has been just as solid as the offense has been atrocious. The Broncos are fifth in the NFL in total defense and pass defense and third in scoring defense, allowing just 18.1 points per game. Pro Bowl safety Justin Simmons was one of the heroes of last week’s performance, intercepting a pair of passes. And as Nick Kosmider wrote for the Athletic, Simmons made it clear the Denver defense won’t be taking its foot off the gas just because the season hasn’t gone as planned.
“These next (few) weeks will tell a lot about your character as a player and as a person because you’re not playing for the playoffs,” he said. “That’s obviously out the window. It’s a true test of character that when you are out there playing, are you still giving it 100 percent? Is this everything that you said it was and more? Everyone talks about how it’s a childhood dream, something you’ve always wanted to play since you were little, and how you love the game. Now you are playing for the love of the game because we’re not playing for that playoff spot. For me, thinking about that question, it’s a no-brainer. It’s going out there and doing my job at the highest level possible because that’s what I get paid to do and I love doing it.”
After tallying three sacks and three interceptions last week, the Broncos rank seventh in fantasy points for the season. Now that Denver defense faces an injury ravaged Rams squad that ranks last in the NFL in total offense, 31st in scoring offense, first in the league in sacks allowed, sixth in giveaways and third in fantasy points allowed to defenses.
The Broncos may well be a hot mess. But the Denver defense is going to boost quite a few fantasy managers on to the Championship Round.
THE NO-DOUBTERS
Baltimore Ravens (vs. Atlanta Falcons)
In some respects, the Ravens are like the Broncos—only good. The Ravens have also had their share of struggles on the offensive side of the ball. But thanks to a defense that ranks 10th in yards allowed and fifth in points allowed, the Ravens are 9-5 and in the heat of the Wild Card race in the AFC. Last week in his first start for the Falcons, Desmond Ridder completed just half his passes and failed to throw for 100 yards. With Ridder playing on the road in the elements against a Ravens defense desperate to get back on track after last week’s loss in Cleveland, his second start probably won’t go better than the first.
Buffalo Bills (at Chicago Bears)
The Bills clinched a playoff spot this past weekend in Buffalo, and the Bills defense has held up its end of the deal despite some injuries along the way. For the season, the Bills rank ninth in total defense, sixth in the league against the run and lead the AFC in scoring defense at 17.9 points allowed per game. The Bills are also a highly respectable fifth in fantasy points among defenses for the season. Quarterback Justin Fields has been fun to watch for Bears fans this year, but the Bears have also been kind to opposing defenses, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game.
San Francisco 49ers (vs. Washington Commanders)
The 49ers have cruised to an NFC West championship this season despite losing a pair of quarterbacks, and much of the credit for that achievement goes to a defense that has shined all season long. No team in the NFL has allowed fewer yards per game than the Niners. The 49ers are the only team in the league giving up under 75 yards per game. San Francisco is allowing over 2.5 fewer points per game than any other team in the NFL. The Niners are sixth in takeaways, ninth in sacks and lead the NFC in fantasy points ahead of hosting a Commanders team giving up the fifth-most fantasy points to defenses.
Dallas Cowboys (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)
When last we saw the Dallas defense, it didn’t look like the defense we have seen most of the season. The Cowboys collapsed in the second half against the Jaguars in Jacksonville, surrendering 34 points and over 500 yards of offense. Now the Cowboys have to face an Eagles team that leads the NFL in scoring. But with Jalen Hurts looking unlikely to play this week with a sprained shoulder, the whole tenor of this matchup changes. The Cowboys are second in the league with 49 sacks, lead the league with 26 takeaways and lead the NFC in fantasy points among defenses. Playing against a backup quarterback, the Cowboys are a solid play in Week 16.
Philadelphia Eagles (at Dallas Cowboys)
There’s a reason the Philadelphia Eagles are 13-1 and cruising toward the top seed in the NFC—the team is loaded on both sides of the ball. Defensively, the Eagles are second in total defense, lead the league in pass defense, rank sixth in scoring defense, pace the NFL in sacks (by a fair margin) with 55, sit second in the NFL with 25 takeaways and have posted the fourth-most fantasy points among defenses. The Cowboys aren’t a good fantasy matchup for defenses (last in the NFC in points allowed), but if the Jaguars can have a decent fantasy day against the Cowboys, the Eagles certainly can.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Arizona Cardinals)
The Buccaneers haven’t imploded on the same level as the Broncos—Tampa may well still win the NFC Sucks (South, whatever). But if offered a chance to reset this season, the Bucs would absolutely press the button. However, Tampa’s defense has been mostly solid this year—the Buccaneers are seventh in the league in total defense and sixth against the pass. But the reality is that the Bucs wouldn’t have to be good defensively to excel in Week 16—the Cardinals had next to no success moving the ball last week with Trace McSorley at quarterback, managing just 240 yards of offense and committing three turnovers.
STREAMERS OF THE WORLD, UNITE!
Los Angeles Chargers (at Indianapolis Colts)
After outlasting the Titans last week, the Chargers are very much in the mix for a playoff spot in the AFC. But a Los Angeles defense than has been hit hard by injuries this season has been more liability than asset—especially against the run. However, while the Colts piled up 33 points in the first half last week against the Vikings, the Colts are still 24th in the league in total offense and 29th in scoring offense. The Colts have allowed more sacks (51) than any other team in the NFC, Indy leads the league in giveaways with 27 and no team has given up more fantasy points to defenses.
Cleveland Browns (vs. New Orleans Saints)
The Browns haven’t been much of a fantasy asset this season—after 15 weeks Cleveland ranks a mediocre 22nd in fantasy points. But last week against the Ravens, the Browns had one of their better defensive outings of the season—three sacks, two takeaways and just three points allowed. Now the Browns will play host to a Saints team that leads the NFC with 22 giveaways, has surrendered the seventh-most fantasy points to defenses this season and tends to struggle offensively in bad weather. Cleveland in December more likely than not means worse weather.
Tennessee Titans (vs. Houston Texans)
After losing to the Chargers last week, the first-place Titans have dropped four straight. The defense has struggled over that losing streak—Tennessee ranks 25th in total defense and dead last against the pass. But the Titans are actually a respectable 12th in the league in scoring defense and a so-so 17th in fantasy points. The Houston Texans showed some signs of life last week against the Chiefs, but we’re still talking about a team that ranks 31st in total offense, 30th in scoring offense and second in fantasy points surrendered to defenses.
Las Vegas Raiders (at Pittsburgh Steelers)
As it turs out, all that was needed to make the Raiders a good defense to start in fantasy was for Chandler Jones to snatch a lateral out of the air, stiff-arm Mac Jones into next month and then rumble for a touchdown. Piece of cake. That admittedly isn’t going to happen every week. Or ever happen again. And there is only one defense in the league that has scored fewer fantasy points than Las Vegas this season. But the Raiders face a Steelers team this week that ranks 26th in total offense, 27th in scoring offense and 10th in fantasy points allowed to defenses.
CAVEAT EMPTOR, FOLKS
New England Patriots (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
Last week’s loss to the Raiders aside, the Patriots have played mostly excellent defense in 2022—New England ranks inside the top 10 in total defense, run defense, pass defense and scoring defense. The Pats rank inside the top five in sacks and takeaways. And no team has amassed more fantasy points among defenses. But this week the Patriots have to try to contain a Bengals team that has been on fire of late—Cincinnati has won six straight games, and over that span no team in the AFC has allowed fewer fantasy points to defenses.
