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It seems like just a week or two ago that the 2021 NFL season was getting underway. And yet here we are, heading into the 10th week of the regular season. Before you know it, the fantasy football stretch run will be here.
For quite a few fantasy managers whose playoff aspirations are hanging by a thread, it essentially already has.
As is usually the case with team defenses, what we thought would happen and what has actually happened diverged by about Week 3.
Some things have gone according to plan. The Los Angeles Rams are a top-five defense in terms of total points. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have managed to retain solid fantasy value despite a litany of injuries on the back end. The Buffalo Bills, who were drafted seventh among defenses per the ADP data at Fantasy Pros, have spent most of this season at the top of the AFC in fantasy points.
But there have also been plenty of surprises. The Washington Football Team has gone from a top-five pick in most drafts to waiver wire fodder after completely imploding. The Pittsburgh Steelers rank outside the top-10 in fantasy points per game. The Arizona Cardinals have gone from a draft-day afterthought to leading all team defenses in fantasy points.
It has been a wild ride—and we haven’t even gotten to crunch time yet.
You may want to buckle your safety belt.
THE NO-DOUBTERS
Buffalo Bills (at New York Jets)
The Bills got stunned by the Jacksonville Jaguars last week (seriously, how the heck did that happen?), but that doesn’t take away from what the Bills have accomplished defensively this season. Nine weeks in, the Bills lead the league in total defense (just 262.6 yards per game) and scoring defense (14.8 points per game) and rank second in takeaways (19). The Jets were able to stun the Cincinnati Bengals a couple of weeks ago, but we’re still talking about a two-win team that leads the league in fantasy points allowed to defenses. After last week’s loss, the Bills are likely seething—and they will take out their frustrations on the Jets.
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Detroit Lions)
The Steelers haven’t performed defensively the way we’ve come to expect this season, but they haven’t been terrible, either. The big plays that we’ve become spoiled by haven’t been there so far this season, especially where sacks by players bot named T.J. Watt are concerned. But Pittsburgh isn’t a “No Doubter” this week because they have been dominant defensively. They are listed in this section this week because they are about to host a Detroit Lions team that hasn’t scored more than 17 points in a game since all the way back in Week 1. One of the few things the Lions have done well this season is allow fat stat lines to opposing defenses.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Washington Football Team)
As was already mentioned, the Buccaneers haven’t played as well as most expected, although there is a caveat involved—every defensive back within 50 miles of Tampa has pulled and/or strained something over the past couple of months. Still, even with all the injuries on the back end, the Buccaneers are still seventh in total defense and second in run defense. After taking Week 9 off, the Buccaneers are as healthy as they have been in a while, and the team has had an extra week to both think about losing at New Orleans in Week 8 and prepare for a Washington Football team who had all kinds of trouble generating offense last time out.
Arizona Cardinals (vs. Carolina Panthers)
The Cardinals are the team that exactly zero people picked to be fantasy’s No. 1 defense in 2021. But it’s not hard to see why the Cardinals have come so far this year—Arizona is fourth in total defense (321.0 yards per game), third in scoring defense (17.2 points per game), fourth against the pass, fifth in sacks (25) and third in takeaways (17). Now those Cardinals are preparing to face a Carolina Panthers team that has been barreling in the wrong direction offensively of late, surrendering the seventh-most fantasy points per game to defenses. The Redbirds are going to feast on Sam Darnold and Co. this week.
Los Angeles Rams (at San Francisco 49ers)
The Los Angeles Rams (and fantasy managers who started them on the recommendation of some hack writer) are probably trying to figure out what happened last week against the Tennessee Titans. But if you look past the final score of that Sunday night faceplant, you’ll see that the Rams allowed less than 200 yards of offense in that game. Meanwhile, the 49ers were getting thumped by the Arizona Cardinals despite the fact that the Redbirds were short Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins. Look for an angry Rams team to back on track against a San Fran squad that has struggled to move the ball consistently this season.
New England Patriots (vs. Cleveland)
Don’t look now, but after a big performance in Week 9 against the Carolina Panthers that included three interceptions and a second straight game with a defensive touchdown, the Patriots are suddenly right on the heels of the Cardinals and Bills for the title of fantasy’s highest-scoring defense. Meanwhile, the Browns got the offense untracked last week, but that marked the first time since Week 5 that the Browns put more than 17 points on the board. There’s a modicum of risk present with New England in Week 9, but there’s still a solid chance they crack the top-10.
Indianapolis Colts (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
The Indianapolis Colts were fantasy’s third-ranked defense over the first eight weeks of the season, but after their worst statistical performance of the season last week against the lowly Jets, the Colts dropped to eighth ahead of this week’s trip to take on a Jacksonville Jaguars team that just stunned the Buffalo Bills. However, that “stunning” consisted of Trevor and the Lawrences scoring all of nine points. The Jags rank 23rd in total defense and 31st in scoring offense while allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to defenses. The Horseshoes will rebound in Week 10—bigly.
Dallas Cowboys (vs. Atlanta Falcons)
In the span of just a few short weeks, the Cowboys have gone from turnover-snagging darlings of the fantasy football community to being shown the door in quite a few leagues after a miserable Week 9 showing against the Denver Broncos. Still, one manager’s impatience can be another’s good fortune—even after last week’s dud Dallas still ranks fifth in fantasy points per game among defenses. And this week offers a very nice “get right” spot against an Atlanta Falcons squad that ranks 21st in total offense and ninth in fantasy points given up to defenses.
New Orleans Saints (at Tennessee Titans)
Last week’s listless loss to Atlanta notwithstanding, the Saints have had a better first post-Drew Brees season than most expected, and a lot of the credit for that success belongs to a defense that leads the NFL against the run. The Titans were able to capitalize on Rams miscues in their big upset in L.A. a week ago, but this was still a game where Tennessee failed to amass even 200 yards of offense. The odds that Tennessee can win consistently with that kind of paltry offensive effort are only slightly better than Adrian Peterson‘s corpse being able to run on the Saints Sunday. First team to 17 may legitimately win that game.
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Tennessee Titans (vs. New Orleans Saints)
Outside of maybe Jacksonville’s win over Buffalo and Denver’s beatdown of the Dallas Cowboys, you’d be hard-pressed to find a more surprising Week 9 result than the Tennessee Titans rolling into Los Angeles and thumping the Rams after losing Derrick Henry for the season. The engine that powered the Titans to that win was a defense that forced a pair of turnovers and sacked Matt Stafford five times. It’s far from certain that Tennessee’s middle-of-the-pack defense can back up that performance at home against the Saints, but New Orleans has struggled offensively—the Saints have averaged the fifth-fewest yards per game and have a massive question mark at quarterback right now.
Baltimore Ravens (at Miami Dolphins)
Fantasy managers who spent a draft pick on the Ravens haven’t gotten much return on their investment—last week’s 31 points and zero sacks or turnovers actually landed the Ravens defense in the red in some scoring systems. But fantasy managers have to live in the now, and now brings a matchup with a Miami Dolphins team that ranks 30th in total defense and 28th in scoring offense that may be rolling out Jacoby Brissett at quarterback in Week 10. The Dolphins have also given up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to defenses this season.
Philadelphia Eagles (at Denver Broncos)
The Eagles have struggled this season, but while quarterback Jalen Hurts gets to shoulder the lion’s share of the blame, Philadelphia has been an average defensive team at best in 2021. That makes trusting the team as a fantasy starter rather difficult, especially given that they barely rank inside the top 20 in fantasy points for the season. Still, in a week where there isn’t a lot in the way of streaming options, the Eagles have some appeal ahead of a trip to Denver to face a Broncos team allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to defenses this year.
Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)
Want proof that football can be weird? In a couple of months, fantasy managers have gone from avoiding matchups against the Kansas City offense like the plague to actually targeting the Chiefs. The reason is fairly hard to miss—among NFL teams this season, no one has more giveaways than Kansas City’s 19. It is absolutely possible that at some point Kansas City will wake up and just go completely bonkers on some hapless defense, but as things stand now Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are inside the top-10 in fantasy points allowed to defenses. The Raiders haven’t been terrible defensively, either—12th among D/STs in fantasy points per game since Week 6.