Welcome to the Week 7 Walkthrough, outlining critical fantasy football context for this seventh, glorious week of football.
At the end of this article, I’ve included an extensive list of the stats used, what they are, why they’re useful, and where they came from. As a heads up, I use some terms interchangeably below:
- Routes per dropback = route rate = route % = route participation
- Targets per route run = target rate
Byes: Bills, Rams, Vikings, Eagles
Already Played: Saints, Cardinals
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Lions at Cowboys, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Lions Implied Team Total: 21
Coming off their Week 6 bye, the Lions face a formidable Cowboys defense that harasses opposing quarterbacks while also having a strong secondary. Dallas ranks first in quick pressure rate (2.5 seconds or less) and fourth in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades.
The Cowboys’ pass rush ferocity has led them to become the fourth-biggest run funnel this season. Teams are shifting to the run at the second-highest rate against the Cowboys—only the Bears are causing a bigger shift. This isn’t because the Cowboys are terrible against the run; it’s because dropbacks are risky when Micah Parsons is on the field.
The Lions don’t need a ton of encouragement to run the ball. They have a -3% pass rate over expected this season, which ranks 23rd. To be fair, it’s not like they never pass aggressively. They have gone pass-first in two games this season. But they don’t seem particularly likely to pass into the teeth of the Cowboys’ pass rush unless forced to.
It’s especially tough to imagine the Lions willingly rolling out a pass-first game plan, given how inaccurate Jared Goff has been this season. Goff ranks just 30th in completion percentage over expected this year, ahead of only Davis Mills, Jimmy Garoppolo, Zach Wilson, Cooper Rush, Justin Fields, and Baker Mayfield. He’s been decently efficient, ranking 20th in EPA per play (which measure efficiency), but Goff’s accuracy creates some major downside risk against this defense.
However, it’s easier to trust Goff now that Amon-Ra St. Brown should be healthy enough to run a full slate of routes. St. Brown had a 41% route rate in Week 5 and was clearly still recovering from his ankle injury. But after the bye week to rest up, he’s practicing in full.
St. Brown has dominated targets this season with a 28% target share. He’s done so with an extremely shallow aDOT of 5.3, but he’s still been able to produce a superstar level 2.39 YPRR on elite target volume.
St. Brown’s target dominance is not simply a result of his ability to get open. That definitely helps. But the Lions have also built their offense around the expectation that the second-year receiver will get open quickly.
St. Brown has been targeted as Goff’s first read on 25.4% of his routes this season—the highest rate in the NFL. And St. Brown not only provides Goff with a clear go-to option... he is an ideal weapon to help get the ball out quickly against an elite pass rush. As a result, St. Brown should get as many targets as he can handle this week. However, the rest of the Lions may not fare that well if passing volume is limited and St. Brown is the focal point of a quick-hitting passing attack.
T.J. Hockenson is two games removed from an 8-179-2 receiving line, but he managed just a 1-6-0 line before heading into the Lions’ bye. The interesting similarity between both weeks is that Hockenson’s aDOT was up significantly. In the first three weeks of the season, Hockenson operated as an underneath option. But he’s been seeing deep targets in the two games since.
This has obviously led to mixed results—an excellent game followed by an incredibly poor one. But if Hockenson can maintain this higher aDOT, it should make him less of a direct competitor with St. Brown for targets. It will also make him less dependent on volume, which is key since St. Brown is likely to soak up most of that.
The Lions’ offense should also get a boost from the return of D’Andre Swift, who is back at practice this week after missing time with a shoulder injury. Swift will likely play limited snaps in his first game back, but he can still deliver fantasy value even if his reps are managed.
Swift ranks RB2 in breakaway percentage, RB8 in elusive rating, and RB1 in fantasy points over expected per game. Don’t get me wrong, Swift will need his workload to grow to maintain the RB1 production he was generating before his injury. But Swift has always been an efficiency play. Starting him is a bet on breakaway runs and receiving production. His shoulder makes him a slightly worse bet this week... but Swift is still a threat for long runs as part of a run-first game plan. He could also see some quick passes this week as the Lions look for additional ways to counter the Cowboys’ pass rush.
Cowboys Implied Team Total: 28
Dak Prescott is returning to action this week, and it’s hard to imagine a better way for him to hit the ground running than this defense. The Lions can’t stop anything. They are also likely to play conservatively on offense, allowing the Cowboys to play balanced in Prescott’s first full game this year. If Prescott struggles in this environment, we can feel confident that he rushed his injury return.
Provided he’s close to full health, Prescott offers a big improvement at the quarterback position. Cooper Rush ranks 23rd in EPA per play and just 34th in CPOE. Only Justin Fields and Baker Mayfield have been less accurate than Rush.
Of course, Prescott played very poorly in a curtailed Week 1, but he ranked 15th in EPA per play last season and 12th in CPOE. He should be able to improve substantially on what Rush has shown this year. Unless the Cowboys are more aggressive than expected, Prescott probably won’t get a ton of volume. But he could be refreshingly efficient.
Better efficiency is exactly what CeeDee Lamb needs. His opportunity has been extremely strong this season; he leads all wide receivers in both target share and WOPR (which combines target share and air yard share). Unfortunately, his 7.4 YPT is quite poor, leading him to slightly underperform his target volume. Lamb has been good this season, but with better quarterback play... he could be elite.
Michael Gallup is in a similar situation. His target volume isn’t as strong as Lamb’s, but he’s underperforming even more significantly. With a 6.1 YPT, Gallup is more than three yards below expected, crushing his per-route efficiency. Both Lamb and Gallup could be in for some positive regression if Prescott’s thumb allows him to improve on Rush’s play.
Prescott’s return also improves the outlook for Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott ran well against the Eagles, finishing RB6 in NFL Next Gen’s rush yards over expected / attempt. He also finished fourth in NFL Next Gen’s rushing success rate. Do I think this should change our opinion of Zeke? No, I do not. Elliott ranks RB30 and RB21 in those metrics for the season, while Tony Pollard ranks RB2 and RB13. Pollard gives the offense more explosion without costing it consistency... but Elliott will remain the clear lead back this week.
Elliott has a 63% snap share this season, which ranks RB14. He’s also handled 57% of the Cowboys’ attempts, which ranks RB13. There have been two major issues for Elliott. First, he isn’t seeing targets. Zeke has just a 4% target share, lower than Samaje Perine, Jeff Wilson, and Kyle Juszczyk. This is the area where Pollard—who has a 9% target share—is hurting him the most. The other issue for Elliott is that if you’re going to be a two-down running back, you don’t want to play for a team that is only averaging 18.3 points per game.
Elliott probably won’t see a significant bump in target share with Prescott under center. Dak, like Cooper Rush, has tended to have a low rate of behind-the-line-of-scrimmage throws. But Prescott should be able to help Elliott out in a huge way if he can put the offense in scoring position more frequently. Elliott ranks just RB35 in PFF’s expected fantasy points per game, but he should be in for a solid RB2 workload this week.
Falcons at Bengals, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Falcons Implied Team Total: 20.5
Through the first three weeks of the season, the Falcons were run-heavy... but not in an extreme way. The Bears, for example, were testing the lower limits of passing rates, with a -20% pass rate over expected. The Falcons had a much more reasonable -6% PROE to begin the year. But from Weeks 4-6, the Falcons took their run-first approach to another level. Even compared to the Bears, they have been desperate to establish the run. In fact, with a -11% PROE this season, the Falcons are approaching Bears territory (-13%). And this week... they could take the title of the NFL’s most run-heavy team if they continue their recent trend.
It’s hard to imagine that the Falcons won’t attack the Bengals on the ground. The Bengals’ run defense isn’t awful, but Cincinnati has covered well this season and is much better at defending the pass than the run.
This matchup should allow the Falcons to continue hiding Marcus Mariota... at least for as long as the game is close. And it’s not hard to understand why the Falcons are looking to limit Mariota’s dropbacks. Mariota ranks just 25th in CPOE; his accuracy has been weak enough to get him into serious trouble. So far... Mariota hasn’t embarrassed himself. But the Falcons are working hard to keep it that way.
Mariota has been inaccurate in throwing to all levels of the field. He ranks 30th in adjusted completion percentage on deep throws, 26th on intermediate throws, 32nd on short throws, and 28th on throws behind the line of scrimmage. There’s no one particular area of the field that Mariota can be relied upon to attack... with his arm, at least.
Mariota is at least involved as a rusher. He ranks third behind Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson in designed rushing attempts. Admittedly, Mariota hasn’t been all that great as a rusher—he ranks just eighth in designed rushing yards—but Arthur Smith clearly sees less downside in calling keepers for Mariota than in letting him drop back.
All of this is not great, to put it mildly, for Falcons receivers. But at least Drake London looks to be fully healthy. London’s routes were down in Week 5 as he appeared to be dealing with a minor injury. However, he was back to 100% route participation against the 49ers. The Falcons might not dropback a ton, but we can count on London to be running routes when they do.
London has had a very strong start to his career from an efficiency perspective, with 2.23 YPRR fully supported by his target opportunity. He simply needs the Falcons to be pushed to the air to rebound from a tough stretch in the box score.
Fortunately, there’s a good chance the Bengals will push the Falcons off script. As we’ll get to, the Bengals showed another gear against the Saints and could play aggressively again this week. London looks like a solid FLEX option as a bet that the Falcons are forced to pass the ball.
Kyle Pitts only recorded 19 yards against the 49ers, but he scored his first TD of the season, and his outlook looks slightly improved overall. Pitts ran a route on 82% of dropbacks last week, his second-highest mark since Week 2. And if Pitts is going to be running all the routes, his per-route target opportunity looks pretty interesting.
On a per-route basis, Pitts is seeing nearly as much target opportunity as London. Of course, London runs a lot more routes. This is why he has a 32% target share to Pitts’ 24%. But Pitts (13.6) also has a higher aDOT than London (10.3). This is why Pitts has a 31% air yard share, only slightly behind London’s 33%. Pitts’ higher aDOT also makes him a more boom/bust option.
So far... we’ve had a lot of bust. Pitts’ 6.8 YPT is very poor. But if Pitts is in a full-time role again this week, and if the Falcons are pushed to the air, Pitts’ per-route opportunity indicates that we could finally get a high-end performance from the young tight end. Of course, his situation is also very fragile. It could be another disappointing week if his route rate is down again, or the Falcons can execute a run-heavy script. But this week, there’s at least some hope.
If you’re looking to bet on this backfield, you should also be rooting for additional passing volume. To be clear, overall backfield production will probably decline if the Falcons are trailing and forced to pass. But perhaps production will funnel to one running back. Over the last two weeks, Tyler Allgeier has played 59% of snaps to just 29% for Caleb Huntley. But Allgeier has just a four-carry lead over Huntley (28 to 24). Huntley tends to come on the field for obvious running situations and... run the ball. However, Allgeier is seeing 70% of the third-down snaps and a small majority of goal line snaps at 53%. He could deliver solid RB2 value if the Falcons are forced into hurry-up mode—otherwise, he looks like a TD-dependent dart throw.
Bengals Implied Team Total: 27
Last week I highlighted how difficult it would be for the Bengals to get the run game going against the Saints. Cincinnati ranked 29th in EPA per rush and faced a Saints defense that ranked first in EPA allowed per rush. The move was clearly to attack a Saints secondary that had allowed big plays to Geno Smith the week before. Unfortunately, I did not trust Zac Taylor to actually do that; my bad, Zac.
As noted by Kevin Cole on Unexpected Points, the Bengals lined up in the shotgun on 52-of-54 offensive snaps last week. Their only two snaps under center were a quarterback sneak and a kneel-down. As you might expect, this led to an extremely pass-heavy game plan.
Actually, extremely passive-heavy almost understates what the Bengals did last week. With a 21% PROE, the Bengals recorded the most aggressively pass-heavy performance of the entire season. Not only that, but the Bengals posted a truly off-the-charts 34% PROE on 1st-and-10. Since 2021, only the Bills have posted a higher PROE on first down, when they hit a 38% mark in their wildcard win over the Patriots.
This week will be another test for Taylor. The Falcons’ defense doesn’t set up quite as obviously as the Saints’. The Falcons are not good at defending the run and have played decent coverage this year. If Taylor is hoping to get back to the comfort of a more traditional offense, this matchup will give him the excuse to do so. And he can justify that approach with the idea that it will protect Joe Burrow, who is behind an offensive line that allows quick pressure at a high rate.
However, it would also make sense for Taylor to stick with this new pass-heavy approach. First, who cares about avoiding quick pressure when the Falcons can’t generate it. They rank just 30th in quick pressure rate. Second, the Bengals put up a season-high 30 points last week, and Burrow had an excellent game; he ranked third in EPA per play and seventh in CPOE.
Last week, I noted that Burrow was struggling a bit with accuracy, which could keep the Bengals from passing aggressively. Kudos to Taylor for switching things up, which seems to have had a big effect on Burrow.
And although the Falcons’ defense can be run on... their opponents have been taking to the air against them. The Falcons are currently the biggest pass funnel in the league, with teams shifting 6% to the pass against Atlanta. I was skeptical of their pass-funnel status, assuming the Buccaneers had skewed the numbers in Week 5. But the 49ers just posted a 6% PROE against them, 3x their previous season-high. So this defense could be a legitimate pass funnel.
Attacking the Falcons through the air also makes a ton of sense in the larger context of the matchup. The Falcons can be counted on to try and limit play volume in this game. They rank 31st in PROE and 25th in situation-neutral pace. They are run-heavy and slow and are no doubt planning on attacking the Bengals on the ground, which is the weakness of their defense.
The smartest move for the Bengals is the push the Falcons out of their comfort zone on offense. And after what the Bengals showed last week, I’m not as inclined to doubt Taylor here. I expect they will move back to run to some extent, but it makes too much sense for the Bengals to continue rolling out a shotgun-based pass-heavy game plan. I’m ready for Zac Taylor to hurt me again.
Ja’Marr Chase is coming off a strong game, but one that was primarily driven by some spectacular after-the-catch production. For the season, Chase’s per-route opportunity still looks very similar to Tee Higgins'.
As I’ve noted previously, Chase has been hampered by defensive attention; only Cooper Kupp has seen more double teams this year. But Higgins was able to play well enough to keep the Saints honest, drawing nine targets, with Chase seeing nine targets as well. The two will continue to see their production bounce back and forth to some extent. But the promise of having two excellent receivers like Chase and Higgins is that it will drive the Bengals offense to pass aggressively. Until last week, the prospect of that actually happening looked dim. But there’s a chance that the Bengals could be shifting to a more pass-centric approach. This makes it less important to parse who the Bengals true No. 1 receiver is. If the Bengals pass like last week, both players have a ton of upside.
Tyler Boyd and Hayden Hurst remain ancillary options, but both are running enough routes to be in the dart throw mix. Boyd ran a route on 98% of dropbacks last week to move 88% on the season. Hurst was at 74% route participation, and he’s at 75% for the year. Both players have fairly strong route rates, although targets are often hard to come by.
In the backfield, the Bengals’ shotgun-heavy offensive approach was not ideal news for Joe Mixon. But it wasn’t necessarily terrible news either. Mixon averaged 21.8 expected points per game from Weeks 1-5 but managed just 13.8 actual points per game, leaving over 40 fantasy points on the field. In Week 6, he only saw 13.3 expected points but was efficient (!) with 3.3 points over expected. His 16.8 PPR points were his third-highest total of the season. Mixon’s best-case scenario would be to perform efficiently on a huge workload, but it’s fair to say that the Bengals gave him a chance to do that. He may continue to have a smaller workload going forward, if the Bengals continue to lean on the passing game. But with defenses focused on Chase and Higgins, he can still deliver low-end RB1 value.
Buccaneers at Panthers, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Buccaneers Implied Team Total: 25.5
Entering last week, the Buccaneers looked like they had returned to their 2021 form. They went aggressively pass-heavy against the Chiefs with a 16% PROE and followed that up with an 18% PROE against the Falcons. But things went off the rails against the Steelers.
Tom Brady didn’t play horribly in Pittsburgh, ranking 10th in EPA per play and 14th in CPOE. But the Buccaneers abandoned the pass, posting a -2% PROE. The Buccaneers still have a ceiling for big passing performances, but their commitment to the pass doesn’t appear to be as unwavering as it was in 2021. Since 2021, Tampa Bay has posted a negative PROE just four times; three of those performances have come this season.
But the Buccaneers should be interested in returning to the air this week. They face a Panthers defense that has been decent against the run but below average against the pass.
The Buccaneers have gotten very poor play from G Luke Goedeke this year, and he was a liability against the Steelers, allowing four pressures, two hurries, one hit, and a sack. But the Panthers just posted the fourth-lowest pressure rate of the week against a very poor Rams offensive line. And despite Goedeke’s struggles, the Buccaneers also held up fairly well last week; the Steelers ranked 27-of-28 in pressure rate and 24th in quick pressure rate. So the Buccaneers should be able to protect Brady reasonably well in this game.
We could see Chris Godwin get rolling if Brady feels more comfortable dropping back. Last week, I was quite high on Mike Evans, partially because Godwin ran a route on just 51% of dropbacks in Week 5. But Godwin jumped to 93% against the Steelers. Of course, there’s always the chance the Buccaneers will limit Godwin’s routes if they get up big. But after drawing a target on 28% of his routes last week, Godwin can be expected to be heavily involved for as long as this game is undecided. Godwin has seen strong target opportunity on a per-route basis, and if last week is any indication, his route opportunity could be increasing.
With Godwin coming on, Evans looks a bit less interesting. However, with a 13.3 aDOT and a red zone role, Evans is always a solid bet for a big play. If the 10.5-point favorite Buccaneers make short work of the Panthers, that big-play ability could come in handy.
A quick win over the Panthers could also mean a lighter workload for Leonard Fournette. But Fournette has some touches to spare. Even with the Buccaneers’ offense sputtering against the Steelers, Fournette saw a 24.9 expected points workload. Over the last two weeks, Fournette leads the NFL with 25.8 expected points per game. Fournette has also delivered efficiently over that span, producing 29 points per game. He looks like a strong bet to score a TD and continues to remain heavily involved even as the Buccaneers mix in Rachaad White.
In fact, last week, the Buccaneers experimented with playing Fournette and White on the field together, with the two combining for a 106% snap share. White could eventually impinge on Fournette’s value... but it hasn’t happened yet.
Panthers Implied Team Total: 15
As I pointed out last week, P.J. Walker has been the worst quarterback in the league since 2020. He kept up his signature level of play against the Rams, finishing last in both EPA per play and CPOE.
I had assumed that new head coach Steve Wilks might be more inclined to build his offense around the run than Matt Rhule. Unsurprisingly, Wilks did everything he could to hide a badly struggling Walker. The Panthers posted a -16% PROE last week; only the Falcons were more run-heavy.
With Walker likely under center again, the Panthers can be expected to play conservatively. They are now a poor man’s version of the Falcons.
Things just keep getting worse for D.J. Moore. With Robbie Anderson now in Arizona, it’s hard to imagine how defenses don’t completely key on him going forward. And Moore has already struggled to earn targets, with an uninspiring 19% target rate. On the other hand, Moore has at least run a route on 97% of dropbacks the season and was at 100% last week. His lock on routes should at least help him maintain a solid piece of the Panthers’ offense. But... Moore should be left on fantasy benches because this is not an offense we want pieces of.
The one exception to that rule was, of course, is Christian McCaffrey. I noted last week that in his only game with P.J. Walker, McCaffrey had a 31% target share, his highest since 2020. We saw why last week when Walker finished with a negative aDOT. That was obviously a death sentence for the offense, but it worked out ok for McCaffrey, who posted a 38% target share—which tied his career high.
It remains to be seen how the Panthers operate now that McCaffrey is a 49er. But the value of his role was primarily the fact that he was consolidating volume. Unless another player steps up to dominate low-value targets, this offense will be completely irrelevant for fantasy.
Browns at Ravens, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Browns Implied Team Total: 19.5
Heading into last week, the Browns’ rushing efficiency was off the charts. But the Patriots shut them down; the Browns finished 26th on the week in EPA per rush. Unfortunately, the Browns’ passing game did not pick up the slack. Instead, the Jacoby Brissett-led passing game was hampered by the loss of its explosive rushing counterpunch.
Even in this environment, the Browns were run first with a -2% PROE. And the Browns remained aggressively run-heavy on 1st down with a -10% PROE. Only the Falcons and Titans have been more run-heavy than the Browns on first down this year.
So we can count on the Browns to stay committed to the run, even if the run game isn’t working all that well. But in this matchup, it will be surprising if the Browns can’t at least get back to solid efficiency in the run game.
The Patriots exposed an issue for the Browns’ backfield—they’re still taking Nick Chubb off the field in obvious passing situations. Per 4for4, Chubb has played just 21% of third down snaps this season, with Kareem Hunt at 78%. And against the Patriots, Chubb was down to just 6% of third down snaps and logged a season-low 45% snap share. Chubb is so talented that he still has a high ceiling, despite essentially being a pure two-down back. But last week was a reminder that his profile still comes with weekly downside if the Browns are off-script. This week sets him up for a strong rushing performance, but he’ll need the Browns’ defense to step up against Lamar Jackson.
Brissett should also play somewhat competently again if the run game gets going. The Ravens have consistently been beaten through the air, ranking just 27th in dropback success rate. And Brissett has been impressively mediocre this year, ranking 16th in EPA per play and 23rd in CPOE.
If Brissett is productive this week, Amari Cooper could be in for a nice game. Taking a look at Amari Cooper‘s receiving stats this year... it’s pretty clear there’s only one thing holding him back from a high-end season.
Cooper ranks in the 97th percentile in expected YPRR, but with a 6.6 YPT, he’s in just the 31st percentile in per-target efficiency. Cooper is getting targeted fairly deep downfield, with a 12.3 aDOT, so he has room for a lot more upside if he can start producing even close to expected. Given that per-target efficiency is volatile week-to-week, betting on Cooper for an efficiency spike makes a lot of sense in what should be a bounceback week for the offense overall.
David Njoku has the opposite dynamic. He has an excellent 10.2 YPT, which is driving borderline elite 1.96 YPRR. Njoku has a strong route rate of 78%, and he’s definitely in play as a TE1, but he could ultimately be a TD-dependent option this week.
Ravens Implied Team Total: 26
After flirting with a run-first approach in Week 5, the Ravens were pass-first against the Giants with a 2% PROE. They’ve now posted a positive PROE in 5-of-6 weeks. Still, the Ravens may be transitioning to a more balanced approach on offense after peaking with an 8% PROE in Week 1. If so, this matchup gives them an excuse to keep pounding the rock.
Of course, the issue with running against Cleveland is that it allows the Browns to go run-heavy as well... which is exactly what they want to do. Therefore, it seems most likely that the Ravens will maintain a somewhat balanced approach, even if they have a slight lean to the run against the defense that ranks dead last in EPA allowed per rush.
Even after a rough week against the Giants, Lamar Jackson ranks eighth in EPA per play. Jackson is having a strong season, and the Ravens should feel confident having him drop back against a Browns’ defense that ranks just 24th in EPA allowed per dropback. The Browns aren’t a terrible defense, but they don’t do anything exceedingly well.
Jackson should also benefit from having Rashod Bateman back in the lineup. Bateman returned to practice this week and is likely to play on Sunday. Even if Bateman’s sprained foot is at less than 100%, he should help stretch the Browns’ defense. Like Devin Duvernay, Bateman has been operating as a clear deep threat this year.
But Bateman is a risky fantasy option, given that his route participation was a concern even before his foot injury. With DeSean Jackson now in the mix as a situational deep threat and Demarcus Robinson getting playing time as a fill-in for Bateman, the Ravens could easily institute a wide receiver rotation this week.
But even if the Ravens’ wide receivers don’t profile as reliable fantasy options in this matchup, they should still help open up space for Mark Andrews... provided he’s good to go after back-to-back missed practices this week. Andrews had an impressive Week 6, going 7-106-1 on 11 targets, and he now leads all receivers in both target share and WOPR. Andrews profiles as an ultra-elite wide receiver. The fact that we get to play him at tight end is simply unfair.
Of course, if Andrews is out this week, it will have a major impact on this offense, given that the entire passing game is built on opening space for him. With Bateman at less than 100%, the Ravens’ only real recourse will be to lean into their running game.
After J.K. Dobbins’ knee tightened up on him last week, Kenyan Drake led the Baltimore backfield, rushing 10 times for 119 yards and a TD. The question is whether Dobbins’ knee will persist as an issue against the Browns. Dobbins had played at least 40% of snaps leading up to Week 6, making Drake’s 58% snap share unlikely to repeat if Dobbins is healthy. But Dobbins missed practice Wednesday and Thursday. If he misses the game, Drake looks like a strong spot-start option.
Giants at Jaguars, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Giants Implied Team Total: 19.5
The Giants don’t seem to have one clear identity this year. They’ve twice gone pass-heavy, posting PROEs of 6% in Weeks 2 and 3. But they’ve also gone extremely run-heavy on three occasions, with PROEs of -14% in Week 1, -17% in Week 4, and -10% last week.
If the Giants prefer to be run-heavy, then, in a sense, they are benefiting from their own poor run defense, which has helped keep teams like the Packers and Ravens from going pass-heavy against them. Their run defense should also keep the Jaguars from being overly aggressive—giving the Giants the option to build their offense around the ground game.
Daniel Jones has played well this season, ranking 17th in EPA per play and, somewhat shockingly, fifth in CPOE. His impressive accuracy actually signals that he could be even more efficient if he gets better wide receiver play.
But the Giants could be looking to limit Jones’ dropbacks because they will be going up against the defense that ranks second in quick pressure rate, while the Giants rank 25th in preventing quick pressure.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars defend the run fairly well but let up big plays on the ground. That suits Saquon Barkley just fine. Barkley ranks sixth in RYOE / attempt and RB10 in breakaway percentage. Barkley’s long runs have helped him finish RB10 in fantasy points over expected this season. But Barkley isn’t just a bet on efficiency. He’s also seen a workload of 18.6 expected points per game. Only Joe Mixon, Leonard Fournette, and Austin Ekeler have had more valuable workloads. Barkley is in the ideal position of seeing an elite workload and generating efficiently on it. He’s an elite play once again this week.
When the Giants do pass, It will be interesting to see how much bigger Wan’Dale Robinson‘s role is. Robinson ran a route on just 34% of dropbacks in his Week 6 debut. But Robinson was targeted on 33% of his routes, going 4-42-1. And Robinson was targeted like a legitimate slot receiver rather than just a gadget player, with an aDOT of 8.4. Robinson can’t be started for now but looks like a player to grab in any leagues where he remains available.
Daniel Bellinger is already in dart throw territory after the rookie ran a route on 81% of dropbacks last week. Unfortunately, Bellinger has just a 16% target rate and a pitiful 2.9 aDOT, so he doesn’t look poised for a massive breakout. But any tight end running a full slate of routes on an offense lacking weapons holds at least some interest.
Jaguars Implied Team Total: 22.5
Last week, Trevor Lawrence turned in a strong performance, finishing fourth in EPA per play and second in CPOE.
But it was a low-key concerning week for the passing offense because the Jaguars seemed to be trying to hide Lawrence. The Jaguars faced a Colts offense that led the week with a 78% pass rate. And the Colts were playing aggressively, with an 11% PROE. But the Jaguars turned in a 44% pass rate—the fourth-lowest of the week. And the Jaguars were fighting against the high-scoring game script, with a -7% PROE.
If your quarterback is playing well, and you still have worries about him out-dueling Matt Ryan... that does not seem great for your future play-calling tendencies.
After opening the season with a 3% PROE, the Jaguars have gone run first in 4-of-5 games. And last week marked a new season-low in PROE. They’re still a balanced team this season but do not look likely to push the Giants off their preferred game script. To that point, they’re playing a bit like the Packers, whom the Giants defeated two weeks ago.
And like the Packers, the Jaguars could be tempted by this rushing matchup. The Packers managed to stay balanced against the Giants in London, but it’s hard to imagine the Jaguars passing up a very soft Giants run defense.
Unfortunately for fantasy managers, the Jaguars backfield remains very much a split. Travis Etienne saw just 47% of snaps against the Colts, his lowest since Week 3. But James Robinson also saw just 44% of snaps, his third straight week below 50%. The issue for both backs was that JaMycal Hasty inexplicably played on 16% of snaps. Given that he rushed for a 61-yard TD, Hasty could be involved again this week.
This is an unfortunate situation for Etienne, who looks to be in the midst of a breakout. Etienne ranks RB5 in RYOE / attempt and RB5 in breakaway percentage. He’s been delivering serious value on his carries. Etienne also ranks RB4 in success rate and RB23 in elusive rating. He’s showing strong consistency and solid tackle-breaking ability. Etienne also ranks RB16 in YPRR. In totality, he’s profiling as an explosive, do-everything running back. Even with uncertain playing time, Etienne profiles as a decent RB2 play, as a pure bet on talent. And look, I’m not saying that playing Hasty over him is poor coaching... but it’s definitely what Urban Meyer would do.
If passing volume is limited, it’s hard to get excited about Christian Kirk. Kirk started off the season strong but has just an 11% target rate the last two weeks with an awful 0.46 YPRR over that stretch. Of course, slumps happen at the wide receiver position, but this one has been so bad that it changes the impression of Kirk’s season to date. Kirk still looks like a decent fantasy option, but he isn’t really standing out from the pack.
Like all Jaguars this week—Kirk could struggle for a ceiling without getting in the end zone.
Colts at Titans, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Colts Implied Team Total: 20
Entering Week 6, the Colts had posted a negative PROE in 4-of-5 games; their season-high was just 1%. But they opened things up against the Jaguars last week, posting an 11% PROE. Indianapolis leaned into a strong game from Matt Ryan, who posted his highest EPA per play since Week 9 of 2021. Ryan is still struggling this season, ranking 28th in EPA per play. But he is a more respectable 17th in CPOE, and his accuracy creates the potential for more games like last week.
This matchup also sets up Ryan reasonably well. The Titans’ pass rush grades well, but otherwise, their pass defense looks very exploitable. Meanwhile, the Titans have been strong against the run. If Ryan continues to play well, this could be another decent day for the Colts’ passing game.
Given Ryan’s improved play against the Jaguars, you might assume his wide receivers were highly efficient last week. However, only Michael Pittman managed to produce efficiently. The Colts’ No. 1 option turned in a strong day with 2.31 YPRR, while Alec Pierce was at 1.20 and Parris Campbell was at just 0.98. This serves as a reminder of the power of overall passing volume. Campbell earned a target on a poor 16% of his routes and had an ultra-shallow aDOT of 4.4. That is an extremely low-upside profile. But because the Colts dropped back 58 times and Campbell logged 100% route participation, he saw nine targets and delivered a 7-57-1 receiving line. Similarly, Alec Pierce struggled to earn targets, with just a 17% target rate. Pierce did at least stretch the field a bit, with a 12.1 aDOT.
Because the Titans are likely to limit volume in this game, Pierce is a better dart-throw option than Campbell this week. His 12.0 aDOT gives him upside for bigger plays. Pierce also has a chance to eventually eat into Pittman’s targets as well. The rookie isn’t yet a full-time player, but the Colts are making a point to get him the ball when he’s out there. Per PFF, Pierce has been targeted as the first read on 19% of his routes this season. That’s a strong rate that bests a middling 15% from Pittman. Until Pierce runs more routes, Pittman will remain clearly ahead of him, but the rookie is beginning to make some noise.
Jonathan Taylor is practicing in full this week and looks set to return against the Titans. It’s been a tough year for Taylor, who ranks just RB32 in RYOE / attempt and RB31 in success rate. Deon Jackson‘s 18% target share in Week 6 is a semi-exciting sign for Taylor’s involvement in the passing game, but that work could just as easily go to Nyheim Hines, who is also practicing in full this week. Taylor should still have a strong workload even if Hines steals enough receiving work to hurt. Taylor ranks RB9 in expected points per game this season. If fully healthy, there’s no reason he can’t get back to high-end RB1 production if the passing game is semi-functional again.
Titans Implied Team Total: 22.5
The Titans headed into their bye off their most run-heavy performance of the season. Against the Commanders, they had a -13% PROE and were even more run-heavy on 1st-and-10 with a -22% PROE, the seventh-lowest mark of the season. So after a surprisingly balanced start to the season, the Titans could be looking to return to their run-heavy roots.
However, this matchup doesn’t set up all that well for a ground-and-pound game plan. Not only are the Colts decent against the run, but they can be beaten through the air. Indianapolis ranks just 28th in dropback success rate, and they don’t get pressure on the quarterback.
So to the extent that Ryan Tannehill is asked to drop back, he should be successful. Tannehill ranks ninth in CPOE, which is a sign that his 18th-ranked efficiency could improve if he gets better receiver play.
The chances of that happening... aren’t great, though. In fact, both Robert Woods and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine are performing above expectations based on their current target volume.
The issue is that neither player is earning targets reliably. Westbrook-Ikhine is a Jaylen Guyton-style downfield specialist who rarely earns targets, with just an 11% target rate. Robert Woods has a more respectable 20% target rate, but he is an underneath option with a 9.2 aDOT, which limits his upside unless he can start dominating targets.
As a volume-based play, Woods’ upside is further limited by the fact the Titans play very slowly. Tennessee ranks 30th in situation-neutral pace, making him a fragile option. If the Titans decide to forge ahead with a run-heavy game plan, despite the matchup, Woods could leave a hole in your FLEX spot.
Rather than build their game plan around attacking a weak Colts pass defense, the Titans are likely to build their offense around Derrick Henry, with the passing game serving as an efficient counterpunch. Henry ranks RB7 in expected points per game this season and has added 1.2 points over expected. Although Henry hasn’t been very good as a rusher this year, ranking RB38 in RYOE / attempt, RB25 in success rate, RB30 in breakaway percentage, and RB33 in elusive rating. But Henry has been shockingly efficient as a receiver. His 2.28 YPRR ranks RB2, behind only his teammate Dontrell Hilliard (3.14). The Titans’ willingness to throw to the running back has been a big boost for Henry, who would otherwise be struggling for efficiency on a non-elite workload. As is, he should be heavily involved and has multiple avenues to hitting long gains against the Colts.
Packers at Commanders, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Packers Implied Team Total: 23.25
After consecutive losses to the New York Giants and New York Jets, you’d like to think that the Packers have learned their lesson about letting inferior quarterbacks hang around. Although, given that they’re facing Taylor Heinicke this week, I wouldn’t put it past Matt LaFleur to roll out a non-aggressive game plan for the third straight week.
The Packers have been pass-first the last two weeks, with a 2% PROE in both games. But the Packers have yet to show a truly aggressive gear, topping out at a 5% PROE in Week 1. Meanwhile, they’ve hit an ultra run-heavy -10% PROE in two games. As a result, they profile as a slightly run-first team.
This week they get a Commanders defense that gets pressure on the quarterback. Washington ranks ninth in pass rush grade and seventh in quick pressure rate. Rodgers has played poorly when pressured this year, but his line has held up well. And the Commanders have been vulnerable to big plays through the air.
Rodgers is having a down season, ranking 22nd in EPA per play. But he has still been decently accurate, ranking 13th in CPOE. So if Rodgers’ offensive line can hold up, he has a chance for some positive regression in this game.
If that positive regression comes, it should be paired with volume, given that the Commanders have no hope of keeping up with an aggressive Green Bay offense. But just because the Packers should play aggressively doesn’t mean they will. I’ve been imploring the Packers to play aggressively for weeks, but they’ve continued to play down to their opponents.
In Green Bay’s defense, with Randall Cobb now injured, their wide receiver corps is a mess. Last I noted that Romeo Doubs was struggling to earn targets outside of screens. To date, Doubs has seen 26% of his targets on screens. Among wide receivers with 100+ routes, only Quez Watkins, Rondale Moore, Shi Smith, and Deebo Samuel have a higher share of their targets on screens.
The implication here is that Doubs is not yet skilled enough to reliably earn targets downfield. The situation got even more difficult against the Jets. Entering Week 6, Doubs had been double-teamed on a total of just 14 routes. In Week 6, he was doubled 16 times, tied with DK Metcalf and Mike Evans for the highest total of the week. Allen Lazard was doubled at half the rate. Doubs was already struggling to reliably earn targets, so he was a lock to struggle while also being the focal point of defensive attention.
I’ll back up for a second to say that Romeo Doubs’ emergence has been extremely impressive. He’s only played six NFL games as a Day 3 pick and has already emerged as the top option in an NFL passing game. Doubs should also have some positive regression at his back in the coming weeks because he’s underperforming in YPT.
However, having a Day 3 rookie dealing with frequent double teams because he’s your best receiver is not a recipe for overall offensive success.
There’s also the issue of overall target volume or lack thereof. The Packers rank 28th in situation-neutral pace... and the Commanders are even slower. In fact, the Commanders have operated at the slowest pace in the entire league. And that was with Carson Wentz at quarterback. They look like a lock for a slow, run-based game plan with Taylor Heinicke at the helm. The combined pace of these offenses will likely limit overall play volume, but it could also keep the game in contention throughout, boosting the workloads of the Packers’ running backs.
The issue, of course, is that the Packers are splitting the backfield touches between Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Last week, I cautioned that Aaron Jones’ snap share in London was probably just a spike within his typical role rather than a sign of better days to come. And Aaron Jones indeed saw a smaller snap share against the Jets. In fact, his 56% snap share was his lowest of the season so far.
This isn’t a major concern for Jones—he’s not losing the backfield to Dillon. But it is confirmation that this remains very much a split role. Fortunately, the backfield is at least valuable; Jones ranks RB22 in expected points per game, with Dillon at RB27. But this could be a low-volume game environment that further limits opportunity.
With that in mind, efficiency will be key. Dillon has been highly inefficient all season, leaving 13.4 points on the field . Jones has been far better, adding 7.7 fantasy points to his workload. This is because Jones has been a much better rusher, ranking RB7 in RYOE / attempt with Dillon at RB26 and RB1 in success rate with Dillon at RB9.
Unfortunately, Jones has not been effective as a receiver this year, ranking just RB36 in YPRR. But given how good he has been as a rusher, it seems clear this is a decision that the Packers are making rather than an indication he is in decline. His role will likely continue to be frustratingly ground-based, but Jones is a solid RB2 play as a bet on an efficient rushing performance.
Commanders Implied Team Total: 18.25
Somehow, it’s 2022, and we’re still about to watch Taylor Heinicke play a professional football game. Fortunately, we shouldn’t have to see him drop back a ton. The Packers’ defense is the third biggest run funnel in the league, and it’s not hard to figure out why teams are shifting to the run against them.
And with Heinicke at quarterback, the Commanders were likely to shift to the run, regardless of the matchup. Last season, the Commanders shifted dramatically to the run in their final eight games. From Weeks 11-18, they went pass-first just once and turned in two mega-run-heavy performances of -17% and -15%. Over that stretch, they ranked 25th in PROE.
Even when they went run-heavy last year, the Commanders remained balanced on 1st-and-10, which set Heinicke up for success. And the Packers struggle to get pressure, which should keep Heinicke from being a total disaster on his passing attempts. And while Heinicke was bad last season, he was Daniel Jones/Jared Goff bad, not Sam Darnold/Zach Wilson bad. So he should be able to keep the offense somewhat functional if the run game can get going.
It’s hard to know exactly what to expect from Brian Robinson in this game, but he definitely has some upside against a beatable Packers run defense; Robinson ranked RB12 in RYOE / attempt last week. So he has some RB2 appeal... provided the Commanders commit to him. Robinson played just 48% of snaps last week; he could be a frustrating play if Antonio Gibson is still involved.
In the passing game, Heinicke is unlikely to be good for anyone. Last season, Heinicke ranked 33rd in adjusted completion percentage on deep throws. Only Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold, Jared Goff, and Tyler Huntley were worse. The problem is... Heinicke loves to chuck it. He ranked eighth in deep ball rate last year and just 34th in short throw rate. So in Heinicke, we have a quarterback who can’t throw deep to save his life but wants to do nothing else. The best we can hope for is that Heinicke is the guy we saw last year, which should spur on the Sam Howell era.
Jets at Broncos, 4:05 PM Eastern, Sunday
Jets Implied Team Total: 19
Last week I noted that for the first time in his career, Zach Wilson recorded a positive CPOE. Unfortunately, his struggles with accuracy returned against the Packers. Wilson turned in a -10.3% CPOE in Week 6, ranking ahead of only Cooper Rush, Skylar Thompson, Carson Wentz, and P.J. Walker. And he bested only Walker in EPA per play.
The Jets beat the Packers but did so with a firmly run-heavy game plan, operating with a -6% PROE. Since Wilson returned from injury, the Jets rank 25th with a -7% PROE. Clearly, they are a run-heavy team with Wilson at the helm.
Although, in some ways, the Jets coaches are working to set up Wilson for success. He ranks sixth in play action rate this season, and Wilson has been hitting big throws on those plays, with a 10.2 YPA. But the overall situation for this passing game does not look great. Wilson is struggling badly with accuracy for the second straight season, and his coaches may have maxed out what they can do with his current skill set. As a result, they’ve resorted to hiding him.
This week Wilson is facing a Broncos defense that has been very impressive against the pass. Teams have been testing this defense, shifting 3% to the pass against them and averaging a 3% PROE. But it’s not exactly clear why this is happening because the Broncos are fairly beatable on the ground.
With Zach Wilson returning to his inaccurate ways and Breece Hall emerging as a superstar, the Jets seem very likely to lean on the run. Hall played 66% of snaps against the Packers and seems to have settled into a clear lead-back role over the last three weeks.
And Hall has continued to play well, ranking RB14 in RYOE / attempt, RB23 in success rate, RB15 in breakaway percentage, and RB15 in elusive rating. He hasn’t been an elite runner but has been impressive across the board.
And critically, Hall has been phenomenal as a receiver. With 2.10 YPRR, Hall ranks RB3. And Hall is actually getting targeted downfield. Among running backs with at least 50 routes, Hall is RB1 in aDOT. His 5.3 aDOT matches Amon-Ra St. Brown‘s and is higher than Parris Campbell‘s (5.2) and George Kittle‘s (5.2). This indicates that the Jets are actually looking to get Hall involved as a receiver rather than purely as an option of last resort, which is generally how running backs are used in the passing game. To that point, Hall has seen a first-read target on 16% of his routes—the highest among running backs. The Jets’ primary plan of attack here will be to lean on Hall in the running game. But if that fails... they are still likely to lean on Hall in the receiving game. He profiles as a locked-in RB1.
Things are looking somewhat dire for Jets wide receivers, including Garrett Wilson. Wilson ran a route on only 62% of dropbacks last week, with Elijah Moore at 67% and Corey Davis at 90%. Wilson’s route participation was his lowest since Week 1. He seems to be getting impacted by Braxton Berrios taking over some of his slot routes. Berrios ran a route on 29% of dropbacks, up significantly from just 5% in Week 4—the only week where Wilson has had a route rate over 75%. A couple weeks ago, it looked like Berrios was being phased out of the offense entirely and that Wilson was emerging as the clear No. 1 option. It now looks like Berrios will continue to be a thorn in Wilson’s side and that the team is prioritizing Corey Davis as their top wide receiver. This is, frankly, not a good plan... and so we should see things shift back toward Wilson at some point. But that could take a while. In the meantime, Davis looks like an uninspiring FLEX option, while Wilson looks like a pure bet on talent.
Broncos Implied Team Total: 19.5
Against the Chargers, the Broncos went run-heavy for the third time in four weeks. The Broncos still have a positive pass rate over expected, ranking 12th. But they rank just 20th since Week 3. So the Broncos don’t profile as a run-first team, but they’re probably not a pass-first team, either.
It’s hard to really lean on the pass when your quarterback is playing like Russell Wilson is right now... or if your quarterback ends up being Brett Rypien. Wilson ranks 24th in EPA per play and 28th in CPOE. It’s been a horrible start for Wilson. His play has been shockingly similar to Mitch Trubisky‘s.
But things could get even worse if Wilson can’t play through his hamstring injury. The Broncos implied team total has dropped six points since the line opened, indicating pessimism for the quarterback situation. That pessimism is easy to understand because regardless of who is under center, Wilson’s health is likely to lead to additional rushing attempts in Denver. And as bad as Wilson has been, the Broncos would still be way better off if they stopped running the ball so much. Only the Buccaneers have been less effective than the Broncos on the ground this year. Taking the ball out of Russell Wilson‘s hands and running it has been like taking the ball out of his hands and letting a Panthers quarterback pass it instead. Sure, Wilson has been bad... but there are levels to this.
Facing Zach Wilson, the Broncos will probably feel comfortable trying to win with their defense. The Broncos also get a Jets run defense that teams have been successful against; New York ranks just 26th in rushing success rate. Meanwhile, the Jets have been solid through the air and are well-rounded, ranking sixth in PFF’s coverage grades and fifth in PFF’s pass rush grades. As a result, passing volume is likely to be fairly low this week, even if Wilson plays through injury.
With target volume at a premium, it’s worth noting that Courtland Sutton‘s lead over Jerry Jeudy seems to be shrinking. Jeudy has seen decent per-route volume this year, but Sutton has tended to have a significant lead in route participation, dating back to last year. However, Jeudy was up to a 94% route rate against the Chargers after logging an 87% route rate in Week 5. Sutton’s route participation over the last three weeks has been 100%, 96%, and 100%. So I’m not suggesting that Jeudy is about to relegate Sutton to a secondary role. Instead, Jeudy threatens to split the No. 1 role with Sutton... which isn’t ideal given how poorly the Broncos’ passing game has been. Because... Sutton and Jeudy have had very similar per-route opportunity. If Jeudy comes close to matching him in playing time, his opportunity shouldn’t lag far behind.
Greg Dulcich had a strong debut for the Broncos, running a route on 79% of dropbacks, which is a very strong rate for a tight end. Dulcich also flashed downfield ability with a 12.0 aDOT. On the one hand... he was left wide open, which doesn’t take a specialized skill set. But on the other hand, Dulcich was able to stretch the field in college, and it’s promising that he’s running downfield routes right away in the NFL. As you can see above, Dulcich actually had fairly weak per-route target volume in his debut. He’ll need to earn targets at a higher rate to stay productive. But he’s already in the dart-throw conversation, given his strong prospect profile and immediate role in the offense.
Given that I compared the efficiency of this running game to the Panthers’ passing game... you won’t be shocked to learn I don’t have many nice things to say about the Broncos’ running backs. Melvin Gordon ranks RB40 in RYOE / attempt and is fresh off getting benched against the Chargers. Nathaniel Hackett has declared that Gordon will start but has yet to promise he won’t bench him again. The benching was brutal, with Gordon playing just 16% of snaps. In an offense that could be captained by Brett Rypien, you’d have to be desperate to go back to Gordon here.
Texans at Raiders, 4:05 Eastern, Sunday
Texans Implied Team Total: 19.5
To open the season, the Texans were a pass-first team. They had a PROE of at least 1% in their first four games and spiked to 9% in Week 2 and 4% in Week 4. But in Week 5, the Texans pivoted to the run, posting a -11% PROE in their 13-6 win over the Jaguars—their first win of the season.
The pass-first approach was always a little head-scratching for a team that was solidly run first last year, with a -3% PROE. But the Texans have shown enough commitment to the pass this season that we can’t expect them to ignore good passing matchups. Davis Mills gets a good matchup this week, going against a Raiders defense that ranks 31st in EPA allowed per dropback and 25th in coverage grade.
Mills needs all the matchup help he can get because he has not been good this season, ranking 35th in EPA per play and 31st in CPOE. Only Baker Mayfield has been less efficient this year, and only Jimmy Garoppolo, Zach Wilson, Cooper Rush, Justin Fields, and Mayfield have been less accurate.
With Mills playing this poorly, it’s tough to count on passing production, even in a good matchup. This is especially true now that Brandin Cooks is no longer far-and-away the No. 1 option in the passing game.
Cooks still leads the Texans with a 93% route rate, with Collins at just 77%. But Collins looks very interesting on a per-route basis; he’s been more efficient this season and runs deeper routes.
On the one hand, Cooks’ 5.9 YPT is unsustainably low. He should see some positive regression over the coming weeks. But on the other hand, Collins has made a strong case for more playing time. He’s earning opportunity that is nearly as valuable as Cooks’ and is delivering on the targets he’s getting. We don’t even have to wonder if the Texans will reward Collins with more routes going forward; they already appear to have done so. Collins logged 92% route participation in Week 5, tying Cooks. Each player caught four passes, with Collins producing 65 receiving yards to Cooks’ 20. One game doesn’t tell us much about their requisite skill levels, but the Texans probably didn’t regret giving the second-year receiver more playing time. Coming out of their bye week, Collins could be in a 1A/1B split with Cooks again. This makes both players boom/bust FLEX options. And honestly, if their route participation remains close, Collins profiles as the better option, as a deep threat in a potentially low-volume game environment.
Although passing production is likely to be meager, Mills could keep the chains moving to an extent. That should set up Dameon Pierce for a solid workload against a defense that isn’t letting up big plays on the ground but ranks just 19th in success rate. The Texans will probably ask Pierce to consistently churn out gains, and he’s set up decently well to do so.
Pierce jumped to a 79% snap share against Jacksonville, and he ran a route on a season-high 52% of dropbacks. Coming out of the Texans’ bye, we can assume that Pierce will again be in a workhorse role, setting him up as a high-end RB2.
Raiders Implied Team Total: 26
Like the Texans, the Raiders profile as a balanced team. They opened the season with a 7% PROE but have trended down each successive week and now have a 0% PROE for the season.
The Raiders also have a -6% PROE on 1st-and-10, indicating that they prefer to prioritize the run when given the chance. In fact, they have the 1st down tendencies of a true run-first team.
This week the Raiders get a chance to keep their trend toward the run going. They face the Texans’ run defense that ranks ahead of only the Browns in PFF’s rushing grades. The Raiders have been effective on the ground this season, ranking 11th in EPA per rush and second in PFF’s run grades. The Texans are also somewhat vulnerable through the air, but we’re still more likely to see the Raiders attack with a run-first game plan here.
The Raiders’ run-first approach is turning out to be kind of fun for fantasy because Josh McDaniels has been willing to lean on Josh Jacobs.
Jacobs now has back-to-back weeks with an 80% plus snap share. There’s no longer any reason to be doubting Jacobs’ role in this offense. He looks like a clear-cut workhorse running back and one who is also involved in the passing game. Over the last two weeks, Jacobs has seen target shares of 12%, 23%, and 19%. With the Raiders as 6.5 home favorites, Jacobs is a locked-in RB1.
Jacobs should also benefit from a competent passing offense. Derek Carr has played well this season, ranking 10th in EPA per play and 19th in CPOE. The Raiders might not be looking to lean on him this week, but he should be solidly efficient against a mediocre Texans defense.
If Carr’s efficiency improves, it could be a big week for Davante Adams. Adams is running routes at an elite rate and seeing elite volume. But his 8.2 YPT is well below expected for his 12.7 aDOT. However, if Carr plays as efficiently as the matchup suggest he could, Adams could feast. Granted, this could be a low-volume game environment, but Adams’ target dominance still makes him an elite option.
Unfortunately, even with Darren Waller likely to miss this game, Hunter Renfrow looks like an uninspiring option. He is operating with an extremely shallow aDOT and, as a volume-dependent option... is not co-existing with Adams.
Seahawks at Chargers, 4:25 Eastern, Sunday
Seahawks Implied Team Total: 22.5
Geno Smith‘s season has been shocking for two reasons. First, he’s been crazy good in a way that is hard for me to get my head around. But second, the Seahawks have been willing to trust him. Looking at last week’s 19-9 win over the Cardinals, you might assume the Seahawks attempted to grind out a win on the ground. But in fact, the Seahawks were willing to pass the ball, despite leading for nearly three quarters and never trailing by more than three points. Seattle finished with a 4% PROE. Instead, it was cowardly Kliff Kingsbury who tried to grind out a close game. The Cardinals posted a -8% PROE, following up a -9% PROE from Week 5. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are not terrified of passing the ball this year. In fact, they’ve actually prioritized the past on 1st down.
Geno Smith didn’t play great against the Cardinals, but he wasn’t a disaster. He ranked 18th in EPA per play and 19th in CPOE. Week 6 was a letdown, but that was as much on Arizona’s fear of passing as it was on him. And Smith is still having a very strong season, ranking seventh in EPA per play and second in CPOE.
This week, Smith gets a Chargers defense that doesn’t do anything particularly well. The Chargers rank just 23rd in PFF’s coverage grades and don’t get to the quarterback quickly, ranking 22nd in fast pressure rate. Smith should be able to deliver efficiently against them.
Smith should also be helped by a run game that shouldn’t have too much trouble against a weak Chargers defense. As you can see above, the Chargers have a decent success rate against the run but have been susceptible to big plays. That sets up perfectly for Kenneth Walker. As a rookie, he’ll probably misread the occasional run, but his big-play college profile appears to be translating to the NFL.
Walker ranks RB3 in RYOE / attempt, RB1 in breakaway percentage, and RB3 in elusive rating. He still needs to work on his consistency, ranking just RB36 in success rate. But given the talent he’s flashed so far, we can expect the Seahawks to be patient with their second-round pick. Walker’s big play ability is excellent for generating fantasy points but is also great for this game as a whole. The Seahawks will get their runs in; we can count on that. But if they’re able to hit big plays on the ground, it will help speed up the game.
And with a big play running game, the Seahawks should be well-positioned to attack through the air. When they do, we know where the ball will be going. Both Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf have logged 90%+ route participation this year and are seeing elite per-route volume.
Metcalf’s 8.1 YPT is disappointing, but he still has managed a very strong 2.09 YPRR despite his per-target inefficiency. If the Seahawks choose to attack the vulnerable Chargers’ run defense, Metcalf and Lockett could struggle to simultaneously deliver productive outings. Still, each receiver is a good bet on his own.
Outside of Lockett and Metcalf, no Seahawks receivers are fantasy relevant. As you can see above, all are struggling to earn target volume on their routes. That inefficiency keeps them off the fantasy radar, given that Metcalf and Lockett are the only Seahawks receivers with route participation of 55%+ this season.
Chargers Implied Team Total: 27.5
I’ve been highlighting the play of Jamaree Salyer over the last couple of weeks. Salyer is a sixth-round rookie filling in at left tackle for the injured Rashawn Slater. Slater has been the Chargers’ best offensive lineman this season, so the play of his replacement has been important. Salyer was excellent in his first start, then terrible last week. Interestingly, Salyer had a strong game in Week 6... but the rest of the Chargers line cratered. Salyer ranked 35th among offensive linemen in PFF’s grades last week. Out of 171 qualifying linemen, the Chargers’ other starters ranked 146, 147, 158, and 168.
It’s understandable that Salyer’s play is up and down; the fact that the rest of the line can’t be relied on either is highly concerning. However, this week the Chargers get a Seahawks defense that isn’t getting to the quarterback. Seattle ranks 24th in pass rush grade and 23rd in quick pressure rate. The Seahawks played better in their win over the Cardinals but still ranked 16th in pressure rate and 12th in quick pressure rate.
Herbert has had to deal with quick pressure at the second-highest rate per dropback this year; only Ryan Tannehill is dealing with quick pressure at a higher rate. Herbert has handled this pressure well; he ranks ninth in EPA per quick pressure dropback. However, it’s definitely affecting his play.
Herbert’s aDOT is down from 7.9 last year (QB25) to just 6.8 this year (QB32). Herbert has generally been willing to check down at a high rate. And while he’s a good deep ball thrower, it’s not something he presses.
But this year, we’re seeing fewer intermediate throws (between 10-19) yards from Herbert. In 2021, Herbert attempted an intermediate pass on 20% of his throws, which ranked QB18. He’s down to 14% this year; only Aaron Rodgers and Carson Wentz rank lower. This lack of intermediate throws is hurting the Chargers’ offense, but things could get back on track if the Chargers can protect better this week. The intermediate passing game should also get a boost if Keenan Allen returns to the lineup.
Even with Allen out of the lineup, Mike Williams hasn’t been racking up volume. He’s certainly been the top option in the passing game, but Williams is well short of elite target opportunity. Allen’s return could make Williams’ production even less predictable.
Allen’s effect could be more mixed for Austin Ekeler. Ekeler is coming off a 20% target share against the Broncos, his second-highest mark since 2021.
If Allen is back in the lineup, it stands to reason that Herbert will be checking down less often. But Ekeler should be just fine as long as Allen helps the Chargers sustain drives and put up points. Ekeler is still involved at the goal line with 50% of the Chargers’ red zone carries and 40% of carries inside the 10. He leads the backfield in both metrics. Ekeler has yet to see a carry inside the 5 but has also scored four touchdowns from outside the 5... so it’s hard to fully doubt his scoring ability. He remains an elite option, even if his target share can be expected to dip a bit if Allen returns to the lineup.
Chiefs at 49ers, 4:25 Eastern, Sunday
Chiefs Implied Team Total: 25.5
Patrick Mahomes was more mistake-prone than we’re used to against the Bills, but he held up fairly well against a difficult defense. Mahomes ranked 11th in EPA per play and 11th in CPOE last week. For the season, he’s still in truly elite territory. Mahomes ranks third in EPA per play and sixth in CPOE.
And the Chiefs actually showed more commitment to the pass in Week 6 than the Bills did. Kansas City posted a 16% PROE, which tied their season-high. By their standards, the Bills went conservative with a 5% PROE, their lowest of the season. And so, the Chiefs are now the most pass-heavy team in the league, with a 13% PROE. That shouldn’t be a surprise, given their play-calling during the Mahomes era.
The Chiefs get a 49ers defense that should be imposing once again with Nick Bosa back in the lineup. Fortunately, the one area in which the 49ers pass defense does not excel is getting to the quarterback quickly. Meanwhile, giving up quick pressure is arguably the Chiefs’ biggest weakness on offense. They have struggled with pass blocking generally, but especially with allowing quick pressure.
The 49ers are somewhat vulnerable to the run, but the Chiefs are unlikely to attack that way, based on a long history of pass-heavy game plans and because they aren’t great at running the ball. So even in an unideal matchup, there should be decent passing volume for the Chiefs’ weapons.
JuJu Smith-Schuster finally had a strong outing against the Bills, but he got there on the back of a 42-yard TD catch, which was an improbable YAC play. As a result, Smith-Schuster posted a ridiculous 22.6 YPT. However, his receiving volume was actually concerningly poor, with just an 11% target rate and a 15% target share. Keep in mind that I wasn’t a fan of Smith-Schuster’s profile entering the season, so I could be biased here... but I actually feel worse about Smith-Schuster after his Bills breakout than I did entering Week 6. Smith-Schuster did at least run a route on 94% of dropbacks, which brings his season-long average to 82%. But his per-route target volume matches Mecole Hardman‘s this year and significantly trails Travis Kelce.
Kelce remains the only exciting option in this passing game. Although compared to Mark Andrews, even Kelce’s profile doesn’t look bulletproof.
Still, Kelce has a rare role for a tight end... and there’s no doubting his red zone opportunity. But Kelce’s red zone prowess isn’t great news for the rest of the Chiefs’ weapons... particularly their TD-dependent two-down running back.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is down to 12 expected points per game, which ranks RB24. His workload is barely above Kareem Hunt‘s (11.8) and A.J. Dillon’s (11.5). CEH essentially has the workload of a high-end backup stuck behind an elite starter, but the running back who is keeping him from a high-end workload is... 30-year-old Jerick McKinnon. To be clear, Edwards-Helaire has the more valuable workload, but McKinnon’s 7.0 expected points per game is a big enough to hurt.
Edwards-Helaire has had his moments but doesn’t look likely to push McKinnon out of his complementary role. Edwards-Helaire ranks RB41 in RYOE / attempt and RB43 in success rate. And after a promising start as a receiver, he’s dropped precipitously in YPRR, currently ranking RB17. Fortunately, this could be a script that suits Edwards-Helaire. He’s played 51% of the Chiefs’ 1st down snaps and 54% of 2nd down snaps. If they can play from ahead, Edwards-Helaire could churn out a usable fantasy week.
49ers Implied Team Total: 23
When playing the Chiefs, opponents have two obvious paths. You can try to go toe to toe with Patrick Mahomes, or you can try and slow the game down. We can feel confident that the 49ers will choose the latter path. The 49ers rank 27th in situation-neutral pace, and they’ve combined that slow-paced approach with a clock-killing run game. The 49ers rank 27th with a -6% PROE and 21st with a -5% PROE on 1st down.
This approach generally works better when you’re good at running the ball. The 3-3 49ers aren’t terrible at running it, but they aren’t great at it, either. And to Kyle Shanahan‘s credit, the 49ers have been less committed to the run game than last year. In Jimmy Garoppolo‘s four starts, they’ve actually been slightly pass-first with a 1% PROE.
So if the ground game isn’t working this week, or if San Francisco can’t contain Mahomes, the 49ers look willing to drop back more frequently than usual.
But if they can help it, the 49ers still look like a good bet to hide Garoppolo. Garoppolo has played well this season, ranking fourth in EPA per play. But as I previously noted, his accuracy is a major concern; he ranks 32nd in CPOE. So based on his accuracy, it really shouldn’t be a surprise if his efficiency craters in the near future.
Still, as far as Garoppolo’s weapons go, this doesn’t look like a bad matchup. The Chiefs rank just 24th in EPA allowed per dropback and 23rd in success rate. They aren’t a terrible defense, but the Chiefs should allow some production if Mahomes forces the 49ers to go pass-heavy.
Of course, Garoppolo was forced to throw last week as he played catchup against the Falcons. But the Falcons were bleeding the clock whenever he didn’t have the ball. That’s a problem since the 49ers are not fast-paced themselves. But the Chiefs are pass-heavy and fast-paced, ranking eight in situation-neutral pace. So the 49ers could have a couple extra possessions here, making this a decent game environment to start 49ers pass catchers.
Deebo Samuel remains the 49ers’ top option every week, given that he leads the team with a 27% target share. But Samuel isn’t as far ahead of his teammates as he was for much of last year. In fact, Brandon Aiyuk leads the team with a 94% route rate. And, after leading the 49ers with a 95% route rate in Week 6, George Kittle is up to 88% for the season, nearly matching Samuel. Someone on the 49ers looks likely to have a big week, provided that the Chiefs can dictate a high-scoring game environment.
Jeff Wilson had a disappointing Week 6 because he’s completely game script dependent, ranking just just RB42 in YPRR. Perhaps that’s why he’ll now be backing up Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey can’t be expected to be in his normal role this week, but we should at least get a glimpse of how much the 49ers are interested in throwing it to him. That will obviously be key since McCaffrey’s fantasy magic comes as a receiver. I can’t say I’m overly optimistic, but as I noted above, the 49ers aren’t quite as run-heavy as last season and are coming off a season-high in PROE. There’s at least some hope that McCaffrey will be close to his usual role, allowing Deebo Samuel to go downfield more often, which would challenge defenses more than the 49ers’ current deployment.
Steelers at Dolphins, 8:20 Eastern, Sunday
Steelers Implied Team Total: 18.75
Provided he clears the concussion protocol, Kenny Pickett will make his third start against the Dolphins. Pickett hasn’t been significantly more efficient than Mitch Trubisky, ranking 26th in EPA per play, with Trubisky at 32nd. But Pickett has flashed elite accuracy, giving him far more upside than Trubisky for improved play. Pickett ranks third in CPOE, with Trubisky at just 27th. Pickett has only logged 102 plays this season, so we can’t get carried away with his accuracy thus far, but his sample isn’t tiny either, and his accuracy is definitely intriguing.
Pickett is also intriguing because we have a decent sample on him despite the fact that he’s only played one full game. It’s hard to know for sure that the Steelers are willing to go with a more pass-centric approach with Pickett under center, but the early results are promising—particularly the 9% PROE that the Steelers posted in Week 5. At the very least, the Steelers shouldn’t shy away from a fight if Pickett can suit up.
And if the Steelers are willing to trust the rookie quarterback, this matchup is an obvious spot to attack through the air. The Dolphins have a very good run defense but a very poor pass defense, ranking 29th in EPA allowed per dropback, 29th in dropback success rate, and 28th in PFF’s coverage grades.
The Steelers could struggle to protect Pickett against a solid defensive line that gets the quarterback quickly. But they’ll likely struggle far more to run the ball against a defense that ranks top 10 in several key rushing metrics.
It shouldn’t be a surprise if Najee Harris struggles; that has been his trademark this year. Harris ranks dead last (RB46) in both RYOE / attempt and success rate. He also ranks RB52 in breakaway percentage and RB42 in elusive rating. It doesn’t matter how you measure rushing efficiency or whether you’re looking for explosive ability, consistency, or tackle-breaking—Harris is doing none of it. Harris has also been extremely inefficient in the passing game, ranking RB44 in YPRR. Unsurprisingly, the Steelers seem to be having second thoughts about building their backfield around such an inefficient player.
Harris played on 80%+ snaps in 12-of-17 games last season (71%). He’s hit that mark just once this season. He’s also hit 75%+ snaps just twice (33%) after hitting that mark in 82% of games as a rookie. Heading into the season, there was some optimism that Harris could add efficiency to an elite workload... but he’s gotten worse, and now that elite workload looks to be shrinking to a typical lead-back role. His efficiency makes him a low-end RB2 without elite usage.
With the running game unlikely to keep the Steelers afloat, they’ll almost certainly have to lean on their receivers at some point in this game. And Even though Diontae Johnson is averaging just 49 yards per game this season, he remains the clear top option in Pittsburgh.
Johnson has been targeted as the first read on 23% of his routes. That ranks 10th in the NFL and is well ahead of George Pickens (17%) and Chase Claypool (13%). Johnson leads the Steelers with a 28% target share; that is not an accident. Johnson can get open quickly, and the offense is designed around him being the top option. The only reason that Johnson isn’t producing high-end fantasy production is because he continues to dramatically underperform his per-target volume.
With a 5.4 YPT, Johnson is now 3.5 yards lower than expected based on his 11.1 aDOT. Even still, his 1.31 YPRR barely trails George Pickens’ 1.35—illustrating the power of Johnson’s elite target volume. Johnson probably won’t produce efficiently on his targets this year. That’s never been part of his profile, and he’s playing with a rookie quarterback. But if Johnson can get anywhere near an average YPT, he has far more upside than what he’s shown this season.
Despite Claypool’s Week 6 performance, Pickens still looks like the second option. This should be even more true if Pat Freiermuth is back in the lineup. Claypool has played 81% of his snaps in the slot this year and has a 10.7 aDOT. That makes Freiermuth (7.7 aDOT) direct competition over the middle of the field. Pickens, who plays outside with a 15.5 aDOT, has a more insulated role in the offense and appears to have a better connection with Pickett.
Dolphins Implied Team Total: 25.75
It’s been several weeks since we’ve seen Tua Tagovailoa under center after a botched concussion diagnosis led to a scary reinjury and multiple missed games. Tagovailoa will make his return this week, though. His return could signal a recommitment to a pass-heavy approach. Through the first three weeks of the season, the Dolphins looked like they were going to be an extremely aggressive offense.
It wasn’t hard to justify this approach, with Tagovailoa playing exceptional football to begin the season. Admittedly, we have a smaller sample on Tagovailoa than other highly efficient quarterbacks, but he ranks second in EPA per play and fourth in CPOE. He won’t be this good going forward, but his start to the season was still very promising.
Tagovailoa returns to face a Steelers defense that is vulnerable through the air. And the Steelers look particularly vulnerable to an offense like the Dolphins. They rank just 24th in dropback success rate, which should allow Tagovailoa to pick them apart with on-target throws. But, more importantly, the Steelers rank just 25th in pass rush grade and 26th in quick pressure rate.
This is great news, given that the Dolphins ranked 32nd in pass block grade. They struggled badly to protect the quarterback, which is a fairly obvious thing to say about a team whose starting quarterback has suffered an injury in four straight weeks.
You might think that the Steelers pressured Tom Brady at a high rate last week, given that he publicly dressed down his offensive lineman. But they did not. The Steelers ranked just 27th in pressure rate in 24th in quick pressure rate last week. So for once, the Dolphins’ offensive line has a chance of holding up reasonably well.
If Tagovailoa has time to go through his reads on Sunday, it could be a big night for both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Hill currently leads the NFL with a 3.61 YPRR. Yes, he’s going to cool off from here. But... he might not cool off a ton. Hill has seen elite per-route volume. In fact, Jaylen Waddle is actually overperforming his target volume more than Hill is.
As you can see above, outside of days when ancillary pieces score multiple TDs, the entire passing offense runs through Hill and Waddle. Given that both players have been extremely efficient so far, it’s likely we will continue to see huge involvement for both players. If the Steelers’ defense fails to get home and the Steelers’ offense is willing to throw, this could be a fun one.
Although most of the production in this game could come through the passing game, Raheem Mostert looks like a trustworthy fill-in RB2. Mostert didn’t seem bothered by the knee injury that kept him out of practice last week, logging 62% of snaps against the Vikings. He got in a full practice on Thursday and should be the clear lead back once again. Mostert hasn’t been very good this year, ranking just RB36 in RYOE / attempt, but he could be slightly more efficient if the passing offense returns to its early season form.
Bears at Patriots, 8:15 PM Eastern, Monday
Bears Implied Team Total: 15.5
Given the lack of talent around him, it’s hard not to root for Justin Fields. It’s also easier to root for Justin Fields when you don’t actually watch him play. But in Fields’ defense, he’s been better than last year. This season he ranks 29th in EPA per play after ranking 36th as a rookie. He hasn’t been great by any means, but he was concerningly bad as a rookie, ranking ahead of only Zach Wilson in efficiency. However, Fields could be due for some negative regression.
Last season, Fields’ accuracy was a silver lining. He ranked 26th in CPOE, indicating that his efficiency could improve with a better supporting cast or better luck. But his accuracy has been horrendous the season; he ranks 35th in CPOE, ahead of only Baker Mayfield.
And the Bears certainly seem very concerned about letting Fields throw it. They ranked 32nd with a -13% PROE this season. They’ve trended to the pass recently, but they’re still extremely run-heavy—even if they’re no longer playing 80s-style football.
If you have a one-dimensional offense with an inaccurate quarterback, the last thing you want to see on your schedule is a Bill Belichick defense. The Patriots have struggled to pressure the quarterback this year but have been very strong against the pass anyway. They rank fourth in EPA allowed for dropback and first in dropback success rate.
And even though the Patriots struggle to pressure the passer, the Bears should help them out in that regard. The Bears are allowing the highest pressure rate in the league on Fields’ dropbacks, and Fields is inviting pressure on 9.4% of his dropbacks, which also leads the NFL. This makes a lot of sense, given that Fields averages 3.42 seconds per dropback, the highest in the league. Fields is taking over a second more per dropback than both Tom Brady (2.23) and Davis Mills (2.29). He’s not going to have a good time against a Bill Belichick defense.
One nice thing about Fields’ tendency to hold the ball is that he at least throws deep. Fields has a 10.1 aDOT this season, which ranks QB5. Daniel Jones, who ranks second in time per dropback, has just a 6.2 aDOT, which ranks QB43. And Fields ranks fourth in deep ball rate, with Jones at 44th. So at least Fields is providing some big play upside in exchange for taking on unnecessary pressure.
Darnell Mooney is the most likely beneficiary if Fields can pull off a big play two. With a 28% target share and a 43% air yard share, Mooney has an elite 0.72 WOPR. Only Mark Andrews, CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, and Tyreek Hill account for a bigger share of their team’s offenses. Of course, getting a big slice of the Bears’ offense isn’t nearly as decadent as a slice of the Dolphins’ offense, for instance. But if you’re into betting on the Bears’ passing offense, Mooney remains the only real way to do it.
But if you’re considering Mooney, he will need to connect on a couple of downfield targets because overall passing volume is likely to be very limited. For as long as the Bears can get away with it, they are a lock to try and establish the run.
Matt Eberflus told reporters this week that the Bears plan to “go with the hot hand” at running back moving forward. This signals that the Bears could give Khalil Herbert a bit more run if he continues to outperform David Montgomery.
Herbert ranks RB1 in RYOE / attempt, RB2 in success rate, RB9 in breakaway percentage, and RB5 in elusive rating. And keep in mind that Herbert is doing this within the context of a Bears offense whose passing game scares absolutely no one. He is running like a star.
Montgomery, meanwhile, is doing David Montgomery things, ranking RB11 in elusive rating. He can definitely shed tackles. What he does other than that is the problem. Montgomery ranks RB24 in RYOE / attempt, RB45 in success rate, and RB43 in breakaway percentage.
To be clear, we shouldn’t expect a major change in the backfield rotation. Montgomery played 78% of snaps against the Commanders; he isn’t suddenly going to become a backup. But Montgomery will be a very shaky bet if it turns out that his snaps are reduced below 70% this week.
Patriots Implied Team Total: 24
The Patriots had one of the most interesting game plans of Week 6. Starting a third-string rookie quarterback against a terrible Browns run defense, it was easy to assume that New England would roll out a run-heavy game plan. Instead, they posted a 5% PROE, their highest of the season.
The Patriots were still run heavy on 1st-and-10, so it wasn’t exactly a passing bonanza. But the Patriots don’t look dead set on hiding their quarterback, especially if they are moving the ball efficiently on the ground—as they did last week.
This week, they get a similar setup against the Bears, who also cannot defend the run. But the Bears are worse at defending the pass than the Browns, and they struggle badly to get pressure on the quarterback.
The Patriots have a strong offensive line and should feel confident they can protect Bailey Zappe. Given that, they can be expected to roll out a balanced game plan or pass-first attack for the second week in a row.
And the Patriots should feel more comfortable dropping back now that Tyquan Thornton has a couple games under his belt. Thornton’s route participation jumped from 64% against the Lions to 72% against the Browns, which is a good indication that the Patriots want to get rookie involved. That’s also been made clear by the fact that 38% of Thornton’s targets have come on screen passes. Outside of those screens, he’s operating as a deep threat, as expected. On non-screen routes, Thornton has a 15.2 aDOT and is helping to stretch the defense while providing playmaking underneath.
Thornton’s role is actually a great setup for Jakobi Meyers, who doesn’t need schemed touches to earn targets, and who stands to benefit if the middle of the field is opened up by Thornton’s deep speed. On non-screen routes, only Tyreek Hill (3.67) has a higher YPRR than Meyers (3.04). And overall, Meyers has an elite 2.74 YPRR that is primarily supported by elite target volume.
A volume-based receiver isn’t an ideal way to play a passing game facing the Bears—who limit overall play volume. But with a 91% route rate, Meyers’ profile is still strong enough to be in lineups.
Rhamondre Stevenson also profiles as a strong, volume-based bet if Damien Harris is out again. I’ve been a fan of Stevenson since he was drafted, but I have to admit he hasn’t been a star this year. He ranks RB15 in RYOE / attempt, RB30 in success rate, RB15 in breakaway percentage, and RB13 in elusive rating. Still, Stevenson has been good, even if he hasn’t been great. And good efficiency is worth quite a lot when it’s accompanied by an elite workload. Stevenson... has had an elite workload.
Over the last two weeks, he’s averaged an 88% snap share and 21.4 expected points per game. Stevenson has been efficient on his workload as well, delivering 22.3 points per game over his last two. The party could come to an end this week if Harris returns to the lineup, but Stevenson has done enough to stay in fantasy lineups as an RB2. If Harris is limited, Stevenson has RB1 upside.
Sources
To write this article I relied on the following stats, metrics and grades.
- Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play).
- Efficiency metric based on how much a play improved a team’s likelihood of scoring.
- I use this metric primarily for QB efficiency, but also for defensive efficiency.
- Data from Ben Baldwin’s rbsdm.com
- For quarterback EPA I reference Adjusted EPA, which discounts penalties for turnovers.
- Completion Percentage Over Expected
- QB accuracy metric
- Pass Rate over Expected
- Measures passing decisions against what would be expected given the game situation.
- Situation Neutral Pass Rate
- Measures pass rate on downs and in situations when a team truly has the choice to pass or run.
- Situation Neutral Seconds per Play
- Seconds between plays in neutral game script.
- Faster play generally means more plays, which provides more opportunity for fantasy scoring.
- Adjusted Line Yards
- Run blocking stat that has been correlated with elite fantasy running back seasons.
- Snaps and Snap Share
- Probably the single most important stat for running back opportunity.
- Teams check in and out of runs with only one back on the field. Being on the field is critical.
- Data from Pro Football Focus, AddMoreFunds and RotoViz
- Third down and Red Zone Snaps from Sam Hoppen’s Player Stat Explorer at 4for4.com
- Probably the single most important stat for running back opportunity.
- Target Share and Air Yard share
- The combination of these is called WOPR. Created by Josh Hermsmeyer, this metric scales from 0-1.
- Data from Pro Football Focus and RotoViz
- The combination of these is called WOPR. Created by Josh Hermsmeyer, this metric scales from 0-1.
- Routes run per dropback
- Snap share for receivers... since I’m not concerned with who is playing run-blocking snaps.
- Data from Pro Football Focus
- Snap share for receivers... since I’m not concerned with who is playing run-blocking snaps.
- Yards Per Route Run
- A YPRR of 1.8+ is good and anything 2+ is very good.
- This metric is particularly useful for young wide receivers whose role could grow as a result of strong play.
- It can also help identify truly elite wide receivers.
- It filters out in-game injuries and blowouts much better than target share does.
- Data from PFF
- Expected YPRR
- Derived from Ben Gretch’s Weighted Targets per Route Run calculation
- Scaled to 0 - 3.5, in line with YPRR instead of 0 - 1 scale.
- Derived from Ben Gretch’s Weighted Targets per Route Run calculation
- Target per Route Run
- TPRR and Yards per Target combine to make up YPRR.
- TPRR is especially useful for tight ends.
- Some offenses and quarterbacks prioritize throwing to the tight end much more than others.
- Some tight ends are far better at getting open than others.
- TPRR is much more stable than YPT, so in small samples especially, I’d rather know who is drawing targets than what happened afterward.
- Expected Fantasy Points.
- Both RotoViz and PFF have similar Expected Points metrics that adjust opportunity based on the context of each play.
- I am referencing PFF’s metric unless otherwise stated.
- Both RotoViz and PFF have similar Expected Points metrics that adjust opportunity based on the context of each play.
- A number of other PFF stats including Time to Throw, Play Action Rate, Pressure Rate, Screen Passes and Defensive Grades.
