Walkthrough Week 10: Saquon Barkely Week

Welcome to the Week 10 Walkthrough, outlining critical fantasy football context for this 10th, glorious week of football.

At the end of this article, I’ve included an extensive list of the stats used, what they are, why they’re useful, and where they came from. As a heads up, I use some terms interchangeably below:

• Routes per dropback = route rate = route % = route participation
• Targets per route run = target rate

Byes: Ravens, Bengals, Patriots, Jets

Already Played: Falcons, Panthers

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Seahawks at Buccaneers, 9:30 AM Eastern, Sunday

Seahawks Implied Team Total: 20.75

It’s been a remarkable year for the Seahawks. Geno Smith has blown away expectations, ranking eighth in EPA per play and leading the NFL in completion percentage over expected. In other words, he’s been highly efficient and the most accurate quarterback in football.

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And, in an amusing twist, the Seahawks haven’t shied away from passing the ball with Smith under center. They haven’t been highly aggressive by any means, but with a 2% pass rate over expected, they are the eighth most pass-heavy team in the NFL. And on 1st-and-10, the Seahawks are prioritizing the pass at an even higher rate. Their 5% PROE on first down ranks behind only the Bills, Chiefs, Bengals, and Eagles.

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But in many ways, this is a classic Seahawks team. Sure, they’re willing to prioritize that pass more than expected. But the offense is still highly reliant on the running game. Fortunately, that run game has been extremely explosive, with impressive play from Rashad Penny to begin the year and now excellent play from Ken Walker. Walker’s home run ability is a good fit for this matchup, with the once-great Buccaneers’ run defense ranking just 19th in EPA allowed per rush and 20th in run defense grade.

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Walker ranks just RB40 in NFL Next Gen’s success rate this season, but when he hits on a run, he hits big. Even though Walker was a backup to begin the year, he ranks fourth in breakaway yards per game, behind only Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb, and Derrick Henry. And he ranks sixth in NFL Next Gen’s rush yards over expected / attempt. Only Tony Pollard, Khalil Herbert, Nick Chubb, Travis Etienne, and Breece Hall rank higher. The Seahawks are clearly unbothered by Walker’s inconsistency; he has had snap shares of 73%, 77%, and 76% over the last three weeks. If he can get going again here, it should set up the entire offense for success.

While the Seahawks’ approach to the passing game has surprised this season, we at least were correct in knowing exactly where the targets would be going. DK Metcalf (25%) and Tyler Lockett (23%) have combined for a 48% target share. Even more impressively, Metcalf (39%) and Lockett (35%) have combined for a 74% air yard share. Notably, Metcalf has significantly underperformed his target volume, delivering a sub-elite 1.90 YPRR on elite per-route opportunity.

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Metcalf ran a route on 92% of dropbacks last week, so his knee injury scare seems to be a non-issue. He could deliver a very impressive game if he happens to run a bit hotter when targeted.

Buccaneers Implied Team Total: 23.75

It’s been a frustrating season for Tom Brady. After being in the MVP discussion last season, Brady now ranks just 16th in EPA per play and 23rd in CPOE.

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But as bad as Brady has been this season, it’s been nothing compared to the inefficiency the Buccaneers are creating in the run game. The Buccaneers rank dead last in EPA per rush and are 29th in success rate. Brady has been disappointing, but his poor play is being magnified by a run game that is easily the worst in the league.

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One issue with the Buccaneers’ running game is that Todd Bowles hasn’t been willing to give up on it. The Buccaneers posted a 0% pass rate over expected against the Rams with a -3% PROE on 1st-and-10. In other words, despite facing one of the best run defenses in the NFL last week, the Buccaneers rolled out a balanced game plan... despite a league-worst rushing attack.

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That kind of approach is going to lead to inefficient offense. In particular, running the ball inefficiently on first down will set Brady up for difficult throws on second and third down.

And the Buccaneers were nearly punished for this approach by the Rams, who looked set to defeat them before Brady managed a 60-yard, 35-second, game-winning drive. A drive, of course, that included zero runs.

Unfortunately, if the Buccaneers implement a similarly balanced game plan this week, it will likely lead to similarly inefficient offense for most of this game.

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The Seahawks rank 11th in EPA allowed per rush and fifth in success rate. Granted, they let up 122 yards to the Cardinals on the ground last week, but 60 of those yards were from Kyler Murray. They won’t find Brady’s Buccaneers nearly as challenging on the ground.

Given how inefficient the Buccaneers have been in the run game, it’s not surprising that Leonard Fournette has been awful as a rusher this season. He ranks RB46 in RYOE / attempt and RB37 in success rate. In other words, he has zero explosion, but at least he’s consistent about it. He also ranks 42nd in both breakaway yards per game and elusive rating, meaning he’s not breaking long runs and not shedding tackles.

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But... as you can see above, Fournette is still getting all the work. And, critically, he’s actually played pretty well in the passing game, ranking 12th in YPRR. As a result, Fournette ranks RB8 in expected points per game. The Buccaneers’ overall efficiency makes him more of an RB2 than an RB1... but he has high-end upside any time he can get in the end zone.

In the passing game, the Buccaneers look to be struggling with a lack of depth. Chris Godwin continues to ramp up and is coming off a season-high 97% route rate. And Mike Evans continues to dominate air yards, with a healthy target share. But, strikingly, Scotty Miller has a first-read target on 19% of his routes... which leads the team. That’s not a remnant of the Buccaneers’ early-season injury issues at wide receiver. Miller has been heavily involved over the last three weeks, with a first-read target on 25% of his routes against the Panthers, 19% against the Ravens, and 23% against the Rams.

The issue with Miller’s involvement is that he has been brutal when targeted. With a 4.5 YPT, Miller is averaging half as many yards as expected per target for his 11.6 aDOT.

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Usually, I preach regression when writing about per-target efficiency because it’s unstable. The league’s best receivers might finish slightly above average in YPT, but there’s far more skill in drawing targets in the first place. But Miller might be a slightly different case. He’s playing a much-needed role in the offense... but by default. In this case, positive regression would be getting him off the field.

But it’s not clear we’ll see any less of Miller this week. Julio Jones ran a route on 35% of dropbacks against the Rams, which was down from 56% against the Ravens. If he can play more, it would likely be a boost for the offense, but he’ll likely remain in a rotational role.

But we could see less playing time for Cade Otton, who has had 92% and 88% route rates in the last two weeks. However, Otton has a very poor 0.99 YPRR. With Cameron Brate practicing this week, Otton will be on the field far less. Unfortunately, Brate has also been inefficient, with a 0.88 YPRR, and will likely be in a split role. That gives us one less Buccaneer to play.

Still, this is a weird season where we can comfortably bet on the Seahawks’ offense to push the Buccaneers to the air (seriously, what is going on?). As a result, Evans and Godwin both look like solid plays.

Vikings at Bills, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday

Vikings Implied Team Total: 20

Kirk Cousins has been pretty mediocre this season. He ranks 22nd in EPA per play and 12th in CPOE. Cousins has held his own, but he doesn’t look like a great bet to overcome a difficult matchup.

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Fortunately, the Bills defense no longer looks overly difficult. Although they still rank fifth in EPA allowed per dropback, they are down to 20th in dropback success rate. And they allowed Zach Wilson to finish with the third-highest success rate of Week 9, behind Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow. The Bills will likely be without starting safety Jordan Poyer again this week. They could also be without Gregory Rousseau, one of their top pass rushers. Cousins should be able to continue to produce middling efficiency.

While Cousins’ efficiency is middling, Justin Jefferson‘s is not. He has an ultra-elite 2.68 YPRR, which ranks 96th percentile among wide receivers with 100+ routes.

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However, Jefferson is running fairly hot on per-target efficiency. His 11.1 YPT is over two yards higher than expected for his 10.0 aDOT. Jefferson’s expected YPRR of 2.06 is a strong mark, but it will hurt if Jefferson stops delivering so efficiently on his targets. And regression is highly plausible, given how efficient Jefferson has been against double teams. Against double teams, Jefferson’s YPT barely budges, standing at 11.0. Double teams have been a fact of life for Jefferson this season, seeing them on 29% of his routes, the sixth-highest rate in the league. His ability to produce a high YPT against multiple defenders is evidence that Jefferson is an elite talent. But he’s likely running hot, even still.

With that in mind, this is a situation where Jefferson could benefit from additional talented receivers joining the offense. That’s precisely what we got last week with T.J. Hockenson running a route on 84% of dropbacks. Hockenson’s immediate incorporation into the offense as a full-time tight end was a bit shocking. The tight end had been with the team for less than a week and replaced Irv Smith, who had only played a part-time role—yet he immediately posted elite route participation. Hockenson’s debut is an extremely bullish sign for his future playing time, as was the fact that he drew a target on 25% of his routes, besting Jefferson’s 23%. Of course, Hockenson’s addition could create some occasional headaches for Jefferson. If the offense isn’t clicking, additional target competition will hurt. But Hockenson could also help unlock some ceiling performances for Jefferson if he can help keep the chains moving and draw defensive coverage.

The two co-existed just fine in Week 9, with Jefferson going 7-115-1 on 10 targets and Hockenson going 9-70 on nine targets. Even in a somewhat difficult matchup, Hockenson looks like a clear-cut TE1.

In the backfield, the Vikings have begun leaning on Dalvin Cook in a way that they weren’t to start the season. After injuring his shoulder, Cook saw his snap shares dip into the low 60% range, but he’s since posted snap shares of 88%, 76%, and 86% in his last three games.

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Over his last three games, Cook ranks RB9 in expected points per game. Cook hasn’t been very impressive as a rusher this season, ranking just RB37 in RYOE / attempts and RB38 in success rate, but he is providing a little efficiency as a breakaway runner. He profiles as a volume-based low-end RB1.

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Bills Implied Team Total: 23.5

Josh Allen is dealing with an elbow injury, which could keep him out for this game. As a result, the Bills could have Case Keenum under center. Obviously, Keenum will be a major downgrade for this offense. He played about as efficiently as Taylor Heinicke last season.

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One additional concern is that the Bills have shown signs of being less pass-heavy in recent weeks. From Weeks 1-5, they averaged a 14% PROE. But over their last three games, the Bills are down to 6%.

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The Bills have still remained dedicated to a pass-first approach. They have yet to go even balanced, let alone run first, all season. And they are second to only the Chiefs in pass rate over expected.

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However, even if Allen plays through injury, we’ll likely see Buffalo shift even further to the run this week. Fortunately, the Bills are likely to remain pass-first on first down. They lead the NFL with a 13% PROE on 1st-and-10 and are coming off an 18% PROE on first down against the Jets. Even with less overall passing, prioritizing the pass on first down should help the Bills maintain at least some efficiency on offense. They also get a middling Vikings pass defense that even Keenum can likely move the ball against to some extent.

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Allen struggled badly last week, for him, at least. He finished 16th in EPA per play and 20th in CPOE. But some of Allen’s struggles may have been caused by his receivers failing to get open against a tough Jets secondary. Gabe Davis saw a first-read target on just 2% of his routes while leading the team with 98% route participation. I don’t know how many overall first-reads Davis saw... but I’m guessing it was more than 2%. This looks like a sign that Davis wasn’t getting open, which would explain his lack of first-read targets.

And Davis wasn’t the only one struggling to earn first-read targets. In fact, Allen only attempted a first read throw on 42% of his dropbacks, which matches Justin Fields’ league-low rate. With a much easier matchup on tap, the Bills passing game should be improved... in terms of open receivers, at least.

Stefon Diggs has to be in lineups, even with the quarterback uncertainty. His 83% route participation is less than ideal, but it largely serves as a reminder the Bills have been good enough to pull their starters when their offense is really clicking. We don’t have that risk this week, and otherwise, Diggs’ profile is spectacular.

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The rest of the Bills pass catchers aren’t seeing all that much volume on a per-route basis, making route participation critical. Davis, who leads the team with a 94% route rate, and Dawson Knox, who has logged three straight weeks above 75%, look like the best bets outside of Diggs. But it’s also worth noting that Isaiah McKenzie is coming off a season-high 69% route rate. He’s struggled badly this season with a 1.05 YPRR, but that level of route participation still puts him in play as a dart throw if Allen can play.

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In the backfield, Devin Singletary remained the Bills’ clear-cut lead running back against the Jets, logging 74% of snaps. Singletary ranks 14th in success rate and should help keep the chains moving, as long as the Bills’ quarterback play remains functional.

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Lions at Bears, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday

Lions Implied Team Total: 22.75

Last week, I warned that the Lions would likely attack the Packers on the ground, lessening the odds of a shootout. Of course... I thought they would have to put up more than 15 points to get a win, but last week still served as a helpful reminder of where the Lions stand philosophically.

Although Detroit isn’t extremely run-heavy, they prefer to run the ball when they can get away with it. Last week in a tight game against a bad run defense, they posted a -8% PROE and a -12% PROE on 1st-and-10. If they can hide Jared Goff while still giving themselves a chance to win, they’ll happily do it.

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This week, they could get another chance to implement a conservative game plan. The Bears are the third-biggest run funnel in the league. Their opponents are shifting 4% to the pass against them and are averaging a -6% PROE. Pass-first teams like the Dolphins have been willing to throw on a bad Bears pass defense, but the Lions will be delighted to see this run defense on their schedule.

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Unfortunately, the Lions running game isn’t all that fantasy relevant. Jamaal Williams is coming off a 61% snap share against the Packers. If he were to maintain that share this week, he would look like a viable TD-dependent RB2 play. But just two weeks ago, D’Andre Swift played 54% of snaps. Swift then saw just a 16% snap share in Week 9, making him extremely hard to trust this week. But at the same time, Swift could easily destroy Williams’ fantasy value if he’s back to a lead role. Williams has had a nose for the end zone, but this is hardly a profile you want to bet on in a part-time role.

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If this game shifts into a high-scoring environment, the Lions’ passing game could be fun. The Bears do not defend the pass well, and the Lions have been willing to pass when behind or in a high-scoring game environment. That sets up Amon-Ra St. Brown as a boom/bust option.

While the game script looks unpredictable, we can at least count on St. Brown’s to be out there for every route. After dealing with a rash of injuries, St. Brown ran a route on 100% of dropbacks against the Packers. He was also targeted on 35% of his routes and put up a 43% target share and 77% air yard share. If the Lions play as conservatively as they did last week, St. Brown’s huge percentage of the offense might not amount to a ton. But if the Bears can push the Lions, St. Brown could be in for a massive day. Only Tyreek Hill has a first-read target on a higher percentage of his routes than St. Brown.

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Bears Implied Team Total: 25.75

Over the last three weeks, Justin Fields has been a borderline revelation; he ranks seventh in EPA per play and hasn’t been far off Patrick Mahomes in terms of his combination of efficiency and accuracy.

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But it’s important to remember that the Bears are playing a very similar style of football as they did to begin the season. From Weeks 1-3, the Bears had a ridiculously run-heavy -20% PROE; they’ve been nearly as focused on the run game over the last three weeks, with a -18% PROE.

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This approach did not work to start the year; the Bears averaged just 13 points per game over their first three weeks. But with Justin Fields playing much more efficiently, the Bears are averaging 31 points per game over their last three games. One reason for Fields’ higher efficiency is that the Bears are more consistently utilizing him as a rusher. Fields averaged 5.7 designed rushing attempts to begin the season, and has jumped to 8.0 over his last three games. For context, Jalen Hurts is averaging 7.9 designed rushes per game, with Lamar Jackson at 7.3. But Fields is also running much, much more efficiently, averaging 8.6 yards per carry (on both designed runs and scrambles) compared to just 3.5 YPC to start the year.

This matchup offers no cause for concern in terms of efficiency, but Fields could easily fall off from his recent highs simply through negative regression. Still, it’s hard not to be excited about Fields in this matchup, given how well he’s played recently and how bad the Lions are at stopping anyone except Aaron Rodgers.

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While Fields looks like a strong fantasy option, it’s hard to buy into a second straight week of fantasy relevance from his weapons. Darnell Mooney got in the end zone against the Dolphins and ran a route on 92% of dropbacks. But he posted an unimpressive 1.23 YPRR and hasn’t been all that efficient this season with a 1.63 YPRR. Granted, his per-route volume has been a bit more impressive, but the Bears are so committed to the running game that it’s hard to bet on many routes for this offense.

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Cole Kmet looks like a slightly more interesting dart throw, given how weak the tight end position is. As you can see above, he’s been even less efficient than Mooney on his routes, but his 82% route participation this season is an elite mark for a tight end. As a result, he’s in the mix again this week as a TD-dependent play.

Chase Claypool is another week or so from being trustworthy after only running a route on 42% of dropbacks in his Bears debut. But he was targeted on 38% of dropbacks with a first read target on a team-leading 25% of his routes. So he’s worth holding onto in anticipation of a full-time role. And even as a dart throw this week, he has a ceiling if the Bears give him more playing time while continuing to feature him in the game plan.

David Montgomery remains clearly ahead of Khalil Herbert in the backfield, out-snapping him 70% to 28% in Week 9. Unfortunately, those snaps didn’t amount to a ton, with Montgomery seeing only 9.8 expected points against the Dolphins. Montgomery left nearly half that workload on the field, producing just 5.4 PPR points. And inefficiency has been an issue for Montgomery all season. The fourth-year back has never been a particularly explosive runner, and he ranks just RB32 in RYOE / attempt and RB43 in breakaway yards per game. But more concerningly, given his skill set, Montgomery ranks just RB42 in success rate. As usual, he’s racking up broken tackles, but Montgomery isn’t racking up much actual... yardage.

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Montgomery’s receiving ability remains a bright spot, but it’s difficult to see him getting all that much work there unless the Lions are surprisingly aggressive on the other side of this game. He shapes up as a TD-dependent RB2.

Jaguars at Chiefs, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday

Jaguars Implied Team Total: 20.5

As I’ve noted over the last few weeks, the Jaguars are shifting toward the run, perhaps partially to hide inconsistent accuracy from Trevor Lawrence. After opening the season with a 3% PROE and then posting a 4% PROE in Week 3, the Jaguars have been run first in all but one of their last six games. They now have a -2% PROE with a -3% PROE on 1st-and-10. They profile similarly to the Patriots as a run-first team.

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But if the Jaguars have been motivated to hide Lawrence, his performance in Week 9 gave them a reason to open things up a bit. Lawrence finished fifth in EPA per play against the Raiders, just behind Justin Fields. And Lawrence wasn’t just efficient; he was also impressively accurate. Only Jalen Hurts finished with a higher CPOE than Lawrence last week.

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The Chiefs’ defense isn’t terrible against the pass, but Doug Pederson is well aware of how Andy Reid will game plan against him with Patrick Mahomes. The Jaguars could be willing to play things a bit more aggressively this week, knowing that Mahomes will likely put up points on the other side. And the Jaguars also look well-suited to match the Chiefs’ strength on defense.

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The Chiefs are getting to the passer quickly, but the Jaguars have protected Lawrence well this season. If he plays as well as he did last week, Lawrence should have success against a below-average secondary.

Unfortunately, the Jaguars’ passing game remains spread out. Christian Kirk got in the end zone last week and drew a target on 26% of his routes, which was highly encouraging. But Evan Engram had just a 55% route rate as he dealt with a back injury throughout the game. Marvin Jones picked up some of the slack with a 23% target rate, but he ran six fewer routes than Zay Jones. With Engram potentially limited by a back injury in practice, only Kirk looks like a strong play this week. But the other Jaguars receivers are in the dart throw mix this week. Zay Jones looks like the best of the non-Kirk bets. His 91% route rate and 1.61 expected yards per route run put him in play as a FLEX option.

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Obviously, the fantasy star in this offense is Travis Etienne. Etienne ranks fourth in RYOE / attempt, fifth in success rate, and sixth in breakaway yards per game. He is providing Kenneth Walker-like explosiveness and breakaway ability, combined with a Nick Chubb-level success rate. The Jaguars remain completely committed to him; he has an 80% snap share over the last three weeks. With passing game ability that will keep him involved regardless of the game script, Etienne remains an elite option.

Chiefs Implied Team Total: 30

Patrick Mahomes ranks second in EPA per play this season behind only Tua Tagovailoa. But as good as Tagovailoa has played, he won’t be attempting 68 passes any time soon... as Mahomes famously did against the Titans. With that in mind, it shouldn’t be surprising that Mahomes leads the NFL in EPA per game. Mahomes isn’t just efficient; he’s efficient when handling insane passing volume. That ability has allowed Mahomes to do more for his team than any other quarterback in the league.

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And the Chiefs are in a league of their own in commitment to the pass this season. They have yet to have a game below 11% PROE. The Bills rank second in PROE... at 11%. So an average Bills game has been the Chiefs’ floor.

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With the most valuable quarterback in the league and an offense dedicated to featuring him, the Chiefs are a good bet to put up passing stats regardless of matchup. And they now face a Jaguars defense that ranks just 27th in coverage grade.

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As I outlined last week, I’m highly skeptical of Jacksonville’s defense. They’ve had an exceedingly easy schedule this season, and the two most difficult quarterback matchups they’ve faced were eased by injury (Justin Herbert) and weather (Jalen Hurts). They could get exposed in a big way in this matchup.

If so, it could be a huge week for Travis Kelce. Kelce remains a dominant fantasy force and has a near-perfect profile for a fantasy tight end.

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But after Kelce, things get messy. JuJu Smith-Schuster‘s role looks locked in. He had an 88% route rate against the Titans and is at 82% for the season, which leads all Chiefs receivers.

However, Marquez Valdes-Scantling‘s route participation was down to 72% against the Titans, and things could get worse as Kadarius Toney‘s participation ramps up. The same goes for Mecole Hardman, who had a 58% route rate last week and could be most directly affected by an increased role for Toney. But even more than routes, the issue for the Chiefs’ wide receivers is that they don’t see a ton of value on a per-route basis. Even Smith-Schuster, who has a strong 1.91 YPRR, has a thoroughly mediocre expected YPRR.

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Toney ran a route on only 8% dropbacks against the Titans, so things could get much less predictable moving forward. Obviously, Toney remains completely off the fantasy radar until he shows that he can earn at least a part-time role in the offense.

But with the Jaguars potentially pushing back in this game, we could have some value in the backfield. Jerick McKinnon recorded a 62% snap share against the Titans, with Isiah Pacheco at 22% and Clyde Edwards-Helaire at just 17%. McKinnon’s playing time is difficult to trust, but it’s been clear for weeks that he is the Chiefs best running back. The fact that he played as the clear lead back last week could simply reflect the Chiefs’ ultra-pass-heavy game script. But McKinnon has had a 43% snap share or above in four straight games, so it’s unlikely he’s completely out of the mix, even if not the clear lead back.

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Browns at Dolphins, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday

Browns Implied Team Total: 22.5

Before heading into the Browns’ Week 9 bye, Jacoby Brissett was incredibly efficient against the Bengals. He finished third in EPA per play on the week and first in CPOE.

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Brissett has now had two weeks to prepare for a Dolphins defense that ranks 29th in EPA allowed per dropback, 28th in dropback success rate, and 32nd in coverage grade. But the Dolphins could still prove challenging for Brissett. They have a strong run defense that could slow down the Browns’ primary method of attack.

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Then again, while the Dolphins rank well against the run, we just saw Justin Fields rip off long runs against them. And being susceptible to explosive runs is a bad weakness when Nick Chubb is on deck.

Chubb continues to be an outrageously talented runner. He leads the league in fantasy points over expected and ranks top-5 in a variety of rushing metrics.

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Chubb’s fantasy efficiency is all the more impressive because he is not involved in the passing game, nor has he been efficient there. Chubb has only one real avenue to fantasy efficiency, yet he’s still been dominant. And given that the Browns rank first in PFF’s run-blocking grades, it’s very difficult to bet against Chubb, even if this matchup isn’t ideal.

If Chubb can provide explosiveness on the ground, Brissett should be able to capitalize with an efficient passing counter punch. Efficiency will be key for Brissett because volume is likely to be low. Even against the Bengals, with Brissett playing lights out, the Browns posted a -15% PROE, their lowest of the season. And only the Falcons, Titans, and Bears have been more run-heavy this year.

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Miami has been a past funnel this season, so the Browns may shift slightly away from the run here. But even if they do, they should remain firmly run first. This lack of passing volume is a concern for the Browns’ ancillary receivers, but we’re not interested in playing those guys. Fortunately, the wide receiver that we are interested in, Amari Cooper, is seeing passing volume funnel to him.

Cooper has an elite 2.14 YPRR, but he’s actually slightly underperforming his target opportunity. With a 28% target share and a 40% air yard share, Cooper is well positioned for a big game here, particularly if the Dolphins can push the Browns on the other side of this game.

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Dolphins Implied Team Total: 26

Last week, a tweet from NFL Next Gen reminded me of some research that Hayden Winks conducted a few years ago.

Tua Tagovailoa has twice as many completions (32) to the middle of the field over 10 air yards as any other QB this season, despite missing two games.

Most Receptions, Middle of Field & 10+ AY (2022):

🥇 Tyreek Hill: 16
🥈 Jaylen Waddle: 15
🥉 Mike Gesicki: 8#FinsUp pic.twitter.com/ff8JQm10Ou

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 2, 2022

Hayden found that when considering fantasy value, it wasn’t just the depth of target that was important; it also matters where targets are relative to the sideline, writing: “Where a receiver is catching the ball in relation to the sideline is very important and might be the most underrated aspect of evaluating receivers right now.” This chart that Hayden included in the article illustrates the effect nicely.

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So... we know that Tagovailoa is peppering targets to the intermediate-middle and deep-middle areas of the field. Per Hayden’s research, this isn’t of minor interest. This is a critical element of why the Dolphins’ offense is working so well. Tagovailoa now has 47 attempts over the middle of the field and is attempting these targets on 20% of his dropbacks. In case there was any doubt that these targets are the goal of this offensive scheme... Teddy Bridgewater has the third-highest attempt rate, Jimmy Garoppolo is third, and Trey Lance ranks fourth.

And Tagovailoa isn’t getting around to targeting the middle of the field as on his second or third read... it is the priority read on a high percentage of plays—77% of Tagovailoa’s downfield-middle throws have been on his first read. This helps explain why Tagovailoa is attempting a first-read throw on 75% of his dropbacks, the highest rate in the NFL.

All this to say... Tagovailoa is being helped tremendously by a very strong offensive design and seems to be executing the offensive game plan to perfection. Not only is he attempting downfield-middle throws at a very high rate, but his PFF passing grade is also the highest in the NFL on those throws. Tua also ranks third in CPOE, showing very strong accuracy overall. All in all, his league-leading EPA per play looks like the result of good game plans coming to fruition.

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However, if you’re looking to slow down this passing game, there is one reliable way to do so: pressure. Only five of Tagovailoa’s downfield-middle attempts have come while facing pressure, meaning that 89% of Tagovailoa’s downfield-middle throws have occurred on dropbacks where he was kept clean.

Tua has struggled under pressure this season. When kept clean, he leads the NFL in PFF’s quarterback grades, slightly edging out Patrick Mahomes. But under pressure, he falls all the way to QB21, tied with Kenny Pickett. This might not be an issue with Tua’s ability so much as a disruption of the system that is helping to generate league-high efficiency for this passing game.

And pressure could be an issue this week. The Browns don’t have an elite pass rush, but they rank 11th in pressure rate and 16th in quick pressure rate and could cause some problems for a Dolphins offensive line that ranks 31st in PFF’s pass blocking grades.

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And as you can see, if the Dolphins are having trouble protecting Tagovailoa, they can run the ball against a very weak Browns run defense. The Dolphins have been ineffective running the ball this year, but that might change now that they appear to have installed Jeff Wilson as their lead rusher.

In his first game with the Dolphins, Wilson played 50% of snaps to Mostert’s 46% and, as Ben Gretch noted in Stealing Signals, saw four touches inside the 10-yard line to Mostert’s one. And as Rivers McCown covered on our Week 9 recap podcast, Wilson’s role increased in the second half of the game. Wilson ran well, adding 10 rush yards over expected on nine attempts. That was only slightly below Wilson’s RYOE / attempt average with the 49ers, which is impressive considering that the Dolphins’ offensive line is worse than the 49ers’. Wilson is now up to seventh in RYOE / attempt.

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With Tagovailoa under center, the Dolphins have a 5% PROE. That ranks behind only the Chiefs, Bills, Bengals, and Buccaneers this season. But the Dolphins aren’t necessarily pass-happy. Even with Tua under center, they’ve been willing to go run-heavy on 1st-and-10. If the Browns’ pass rush is effective, they could play more balanced than we’re used to.

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Still, even if the Dolphins pivot to protect Tua, this passing game is so highly concentrated that it would be ridiculous to doubt Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Hill looks particularly bulletproof. He has a 33% target share, a 41% air yard share, and a 0.78 WOPR that trails only DeAndre Hopkins. Hill also leads the NFL in first-read targets per route, downfield-middle targets per route, and expected YPRR. His league-leading 3.82 YPRR is the result of an offense designed to feed him high-value targets. Right now, he is answering the question, what if 2021 Cooper Kupp was also the fastest wide receiver in the league?

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Jaylen Waddle doesn’t look quite as locked in at Hill. But with a 2.10 expected yards per route run, and elite speed, you’re obviously playing him this week. Even if the Dolphins shift to the run somewhat, Wilson gives them a chance at increased rushing efficiency, which should help keep the chains moving if Tua is dealing with pressure.

But while Hill and Waddle look locked in, this seems like a week to shy away from Mike Gesicki. Gesicki had a solid three-week stretch from Weeks 5-7, with route rates of 67%, 76%, and 68%. However, Gesicki has dropped to route rates of 58% and 61% over his last two games. That drop might not seem like a ton, but it puts the tight end into part-time receiver territory. And Gesicki (47%) has also been out-snapped by Durham Smythe (52%) over the last two weeks. If the Dolphins lean into the run, Smythe could see the field even more often.

Texans at Giants, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday

Texans Implied Team Total: 17.75

When looking at quarterback efficiency this season, I’m always surprised to see that the Texans are a fairly balanced team. They currently have a -2% PROE and a 1% PROE on 1st-and-10. But the Texans appear to be making a significant shift toward the run. After being pass-first in each of their first four games, they have been run-first in the four games since—and there coming off an extremely run-heavy performance against the Eagles. They posted a -15% in Week 9, with a -16% PROE on 1st-and-10.

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This is the type of play-calling I’ve been expecting from the Texans this season, given how poorly Davis Mills has played. Mills ranks 37th in EPA per play; only Baker Mayfield and P.J. Walker have been less efficient. And Mills ranks 35th in CPOE; only Justin Fields, Cooper Rush, P.J. Walker, and Baker Mayfield have been less accurate.

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Fortunately for the Texans, they now get a Giants defense that isn’t great against the run. They have a decent success rate on running plays but rank just 23rd in EPA allowed per rush and 26th in PFF’s run defense grades. The Texans will be certain to establish Dameon Pierce in this game, and he should be at least decently successful in getting the run game going.

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Pierce has been astoundingly elusive this season, particularly when considering the fact that defenses know he is the Texans’ best weapon. And Pierce isn’t just breaking tackles in the David Montgomery mold—where a nearby defender usually ends the run in short order. Instead, he’s breaking tackles and then delivering explosive runs. Pierce not only ranks second in elusive rating, he ranks ninth in breakaway yards per game.

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Pierce has a borderline RB1 workload of 15.3 expected points per game. But despite obvious talent, Mills’ low-end play makes Pierce more of an RB2. Nevertheless, he has RB1 upside in this matchup, particularly because the Giants’ pass defense is mediocre enough to allow Mills to make some plays.

Mills should also benefit from having Brandin Cooks back in the lineup. Cooks has a disappointing 6.9 YPT, but he leads the team with a 23% target share and a 31% air yard share. He also leads the team with a first-read target on 19% of his routes and a double-team rate of 19%. Cooks’ overall situation makes him a fantasy FLEX option, but he should be a big boost to the Texans’ offense, giving them a clear No. 1 option that the Giants have to respect.

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Giants Implied Team Total: 22.75

While the Giants’ defense is among the league’s biggest pass funnels, the Texans’ defense is arguably the biggest run funnel in the NFL. And honestly, it would be shocking if teams weren’t picking on this run defense.

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This is obviously great news for the Giants, who have been a run-first team this season and rely on explosive running plays for their offensive success. Admittedly, the Giants aren’t as obsessed with the run as teams like the Falcons, Titans, and Bears. Still, in a season without those massively run-heavy teams, we would consider the Giants to be true believers in establishing it. Their -6% PROE would have tied the Saints for the third lowest in 2021, and their -8% PROE on 1st-and-10 bests only the Falcons and Titans from last season.

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Daniel Jones has been solid this season, and the Giants have been leaning on him as a rusher as well as a passer; his 33 designed attempts are tied with Josh Allen for the seventh most among quarterbacks. And Jones has been very impressive as a scrambler. With 246 scramble yards, he trails only Justin Fields and Josh Allen. With his rushing ability more prominently featured this season, Jones is having a decent year; he ranks 15th in EPA per play and 16th in CPOE.

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But obviously, Saquon Barkley is the engine of the Giants’ offense. Barkley leads all running backs with an 83% snap share this season. And he’s been as explosive as ever, ranking first in breakaway yards per game.

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Barkley hasn’t been as efficient as a receiver, but given his breakaway ability on the ground, it looks like only a matter of time until he delivers more big plays through the air. With a league-leading 69% route rate and an elite 17% target share, he’s certainly getting plenty of opportunities to do so.

Getting scripted out of a Texans game isn’t a huge concern. Still, Barkley is set up for a ton of work, no matter how this game plays out. And honestly, Barkley could be better off if the Giants are forced to throw more than expected. Getting to the quarterback quickly is the one thing the Texans do well on defense. So additional passing attempts could generate additional dump-off opportunities for Barkley, putting him in position to turn upfield against a pass defense that ranks 24th in EPA allowed per dropback.

Other than Barkley, it’s hard to generate much enthusiasm for Giants’ skill players. To that point, Darius Slayton looks like the best of the bunch. Slayton has seen a first-read target on 20% of his routes, which leads the team. He also has a 1.82 expected YPRR, which leads all active Giants. That’s a significantly higher mark than Wan’Dale Robinson, who is being held back by an ultra-shallow 4.5 aDOT.

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Slayton is a true deep threat, with a 14.0 aDOT. And Daniel Jones’ deep threat will never be a reliable fantasy role. But he does at least have the advantage of only needing a few targets to generate a decent day. I was going to call him a viable DFS dart throw, but he’s $4,600 somehow—thanks, DraftKings.

Saints at Steelers, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday

Saints Implied Team Total: 19.25

The Saints are a run-heavy team. But they are run heavy in the mold of the Giants and Browns; they are not part of the ultra-run-heavy club that currently consists of the Falcons, Titans, and Bears. Unlike those three teams, the Saints have actually gone pass-first this season. And they’ve done so twice, the thought of which would make Arthur Smith violently ill. New Orleans posted a 1% PROE against the Buccaneers and a 2% PROE against the Cardinals.

The Saints have also shown a few different gears of run heaviness in their three wins. In Week 5, they had a -19% PROE in their win over the Seahawks. They were more moderately run-heavy, with a -5% PROE in their shutout win over the Raiders. And they were essentially balanced with a -1% PROE in their opening week win over the Falcons.

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The Saints’ philosophy this week is rather important. They are playing a Steelers defense that is not good against the pass, ranking 27th in EPA allowed per dropback and 29th in pass rush grade.

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Despite being a run-heavy team, the Saints are fairly well-positioned to take advantage of this matchup. Andy Dalton ranks 11th in EPA per play and 15th in CPOE. He’s been an above-average quarterback this season, essentially operating as a slightly more efficient version of Kirk Cousins.

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Dalton is far from being on the fantasy radar, but he could facilitate a strong outing from Chris Olave. Olave has been a revelation this season. Granted, the way he’s been used has been pretty predictable. Olave profiled as an outside downfield receiver and has played outside on 73% of his snaps with a true deep threat aDOT of 15.6. But the shocking part about Olave is that he’s been able to draw targets at an elite rate while also operating as a pure deep threat. Given the value of air yards, the ability to post a 27% target share while consistently challenging downfield creates an enormously valuable profile. Olave ranks 11th in WOPR this season; he’s carved out an extremely valuable slice of the Saints’ passing game.

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Olave is dominant within his passing game... but the Saints’ offense isn’t an ideal place for him to be. Passing attempts aren’t assured, and neither is per target efficiency. However, if the Saints play fairly balanced here, Olave could make good on his WR1 underlying profile.

And if the Saints lean into this matchup, it would also be good news for Juwan Johnson. Even with Adam Trautman returning to the lineup last week, Johnson ran a route on 83% of dropbacks. Johnson only has an 11% target share and a 10% air yard share... so he’s a fairly uninspiring option. Still, he has a 71% route rate this season and could be close to 80% in a good matchup. There are worse TD-or-bust bets.

Additional passing attempts would also be ideal for Alvin Kamara. Kamara has been fairly mediocre as a rusher this season but absolutely electric as a receiver. His 1.99 YPRR trails only Breece Hall.

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I don’t want to overstate how bad the Steelers’ pass defense is. They’ve had a difficult schedule that includes the Bengals, Bills, Buccaneers, Dolphins, and Eagles. The hope for the Saints would be that they play with only a slight tilt to the run and are efficient through the air. But they’ll still need to lean on the run game to a large extent. This sets up Kamara for a big workload. He ranks sixth among running backs with a 72% snap share and fourth with 18.5 expected points per game. Kamara looks like an elite play this week.

Steelers Implied Team Total: 19.25

The Steelers are coming off their bye week, and hopefully, they figured some things out with Kenny Pickett. Because Pickett has been unimpressive to begin his career, ranking ahead of only Davis Mills, Baker Mayfield, and P.J. Walker in EPA per play. He also ranks 25th in success rate and 32nd in PFF’s quarterback grades.

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But Pickett has flashed impressive accuracy, ranking fourth in CPOE; he’s been slightly more accurate than Joe Burrow. Unfortunately, that’s not going to impress anyone when paired with worse efficiency than Mitch Trubisky. But if Pickett’s accuracy maintains, he should see some positive regression.

Any positive regression in efficiency would be incredible news for Diontae Johnson. Johnson has a high-end profile... until the point that he actually has to make a catch.

But target volume is king in fantasy football, and Johnson has that. He has a very strong 2.02 expected YPRR, and the Steelers offense is built to run through him; Johnson is drawing a first-read target on 21% of his routes. Unfortunately, his abysmal 5.0 YPT has crippled his value, yielding a very poor 1.16 YPRR. Still, Johnson’s profile looks far stronger than George Pickens'.

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As you can see, even with a comically poor YPT, Johnson is still besting Pickens in YPRR. So if he can get it together on a per-target basis, he has a chance for a very big rebound performance.

Chase Claypool‘s departure should open up some targets, but those may be picked up by a tight end rather than a wide receiver. Claypool was playing primarily out of the slot and should open up some over-the-middle-of-the-field targets for Pat Freiermuth. Freiermuth is having a quietly impressive season, with 1.82 YPRR on an offense that is struggling overall. He profiles as a locked-in TE1.

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But the issue for all Steelers pass catchers is that the Saints have been a dangerous matchup in recent weeks. Although they struggle to get to the quarterback quickly, they have an above-average success rate against the pass. The Saints aren’t a great defense, but with a high success rate, they also aren’t an ideal matchup for a dink-and-dunk passing game. Given that Pickett ranks 18th in deep ball rate and 30th in PFF’s grades on deep attempts, this is not an ideal breakout spot for him.

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But while efficiency is looking like a very shaky bet for this offense, there should be a decent amount of volume. Even with very inefficient quarterback play all season, the Steelers have had a slight lean to the pass, ranking 10th in PROE.

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Because while Pickett has definitely struggled so far, he hasn’t been nearly as bad as Najee Harris. The running back ranks RB48 in rush yards over expected / attempt, ahead of only Cam Akers. He is also RB48 in success rate, ahead of only Brian Robinson. Harris’ workload has been in solid RB2 territory, at 13.8 expected points per game, but he’s underperforming dramatically, ranking RB47 fantasy efficiency.

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Joe Mixon just reminded us of the power of positive regression. And, although I didn’t like it, I was bullish on Mixon last week in a strong bounce-back spot. Harris is in a much more difficult position against an above-average run defense and supported by a passing offense that could struggle for efficiency. At some point, he almost has to stop being quite so inefficient... but I wouldn’t be rushing to get him into my lineup this week. And it’ll be interesting to see if the Steelers give Jaylen Warren any additional run out of the bye.

Broncos at Titans, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday

Broncos Implied Team Total: 17

The Broncos are returning from a much-needed bye week... for us. And it’s hard to generate a lot of optimism for this team in their return to action. Because the Titans have emerged as one of the NFL’s premier run defenses, and they are also above average against the pass.

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Given how poorly the Broncos have run the ball the season, facing an elite run defense shouldn’t be a huge issue for them... since they shouldn’t be running the ball anyway. But one of the big issues for the Broncos is that they are continuing to waste downs on inefficient running plays. The Broncos have been a balanced team this season, which is not ideal for the third-worst rushing offenses in football.

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With the Broncos splitting up snaps between Melvin Gordon and Latavius Murray, both backs are pure desperation options. Gordon ranks RB47 in RYOE / attempt, and it shouldn’t be a surprise if the 2023 free agent doesn’t make a 53-man roster next summer. Murray hasn’t been much better, ranking RB41 in RYOE / attempt. Murray has at least been solid in success rate, and his consistency could lead to more work out of the bye, but both backs are best left on benches this week.

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Even with a terrible running game, it’s hard to blame the Broncos for wanting to hide Russell Wilson. Wilson ranks 23rd in EPA per play and 30th in CPOE this season.

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But as disappointing as Wilson has been, it seems clear that his coaches are mismanaging the situation. The Vikings, for example, are getting only slightly better play from Kirk Cousins. But they have been willing to operate a pass-first offense. Although Cousins’ play hasn’t been ideal, prioritizing the pass is helping to set him up for success. The Vikings are also doing some common-sense things, like running play action at a high rate.

With the Broncos committed to a balanced offense, you might assume that they are running a lot of play action for Wilson... a quarterback who famously enjoys rolling out of the pocket. But you would be wrong. Wilson has run play action on just 22% of his dropbacks this season, which ranks QB27.

Of course, not every successful and well-designed passing game is built on a heavy dose of play action. For example, Patrick Mahomes ranks just 29th in play action rate, and Joe Burrow ranks just 32nd. But Mahomes and Burrow are operating primarily from the shotgun. Mahomes and Burrow have taken 92% of their dropbacks from the shotgun the season, ranking third and fourth in shotgun rate. But Wilson ranks just QB23 in shotgun rate this season.

The Russell Wilson trade is unlikely to ever look like a win for the Broncos, but Nathaniel Hackett is a big part of why it looks like such a catastrophe at the moment. This coaching staff is inexplicably intent on establishing the threat of an under-center run game but then can’t be bothered to call play action off of those looks. It’s how you end up in the lowest-totaled game of the season.

The Broncos’ passing game isn’t just inefficient; it’s spread out. Both Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy are seeing strong but sub-elite per-route volume. Both players might look like strong fantasy options if they were in a highly effective offense. However, in this offense... both are underperforming their target volume and cannibalizing each other’s fantasy value.

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There’s also the fact that Greg Dulcich looks to be a big part of the passing game as well. Dulcich actually leads the team with a 1.96 YPRR, and he’s coming off a game where he ran a route on 91% of dropbacks; the rookie is at 79% route participation for the season. Dulcich isn’t just involved; he is living up to his prospect profile, which indicated he could be a downfield threat. Among tight ends with 60%+ route participation, only Kyle Pitts (14.2) has a higher aDOT than Dulcich’s 13.3. Darren Waller (11.6) is third, and Mark Andrews (10.9) is fourth.

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I’m a big believer that aDOT can help differentiate true pass-catching threats at the tight end position from volume-based underneath dump-off options. While many tight ends are effectively just check-down targets, players who can effectively stretch the seam have better odds of being incorporated into the offensive game plan. To that point, the rookie tight end already ranks ninth in first-read targets per route, and he led the team in first-read targets per route in Week 7.

Dulcich is flashing all the signs we want to see from a potential difference-maker at tight end. Even with strong target competition and as part of an inefficient offense that could struggle this week, the rookie is in play as a low-end TE1, as a bet on a big play or two.

Titans Implied Team Total: 19.5

With Ryan Tannehill practicing, the Titans could have their starting quarterback back in the lineup. This would be a highly welcome development. Among quarterbacks with a minimum of 50 plays this season, Malik Willis ranks dead last in EPA per play, and only Trey Lance has been less accurate.

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Ryan Tannehill hasn’t had a great season, but at least he profiles like an NFL quarterback. Although, the Titans’ game plan is unlikely to change much regardless of who is under center. The Broncos rank first in EPA allowed per dropback and are second in dropback success rate. So whether working with limited mobility from Tannehill or a limited skill set with Willis, the Titans are sure to lean on the run in this matchup.

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Granted, the Titans won’t be quite as run-heavy if Tannehill is in the lineup. Over the last two weeks, the Titans have made even the Browns, Falcons, and Bears look relatively modern.

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So a less run-heavy approach from the Titans will still mean a lot of running by any other standard. And Derrick Henry appears up to the task. For much of the season, Henry was flashing more explosiveness as a receiver than as a rusher. But Henry has totaled 211 breakaway yards in his last three games and now ranks RB3 in breakaway yards per game, behind only Nick Chubb and Saquon Barkley.

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Normally, I would still be worried about a team’s running game against the Broncos because their excellent pass defense can limit overall offensive efficiency. But in this case... the running game might be the overall offense. And given that the Broncos rank only 20th in EPA allowed per rush and will probably struggle to put up points on offense, an ultra-run-heavy plan looks fairly likely to work. Henry remains an elite running back option.

In the passing game, we will likely see Treylon Burks return to action this week. Burks could give the Titans a bit of juice, given that he leads the Titans’ wide receivers in YPRR. But it’s best to take a wait-and-see approach with Burks because his routes could be limited and this matchup could lead to virtually zero production in the Tennessee passing game.

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Colts at Raiders, 4:05 Eastern, Sunday

Colts Implied Team Total: 18.25

Sam Ehlinger only has 79 plays to his name in the NFL, but what he has shown so far has been extremely unimpressive. Ehlinger has been less efficient than Baker Mayfield and P.J. Walker; only Mayfield, Walker, and Cooper Rush have been less accurate.

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If Ehlinger is ever going to show anything, this would be the week to do it, facing a Raiders defense that ranks 31st in EPA allowed per dropback and 30th in dropback success rate. The crazy thing about the Raiders’ pass defense is that they haven’t had a very difficult schedule this season. They profile as a genuinely terrible unit.

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With new coach Jeff Saturday taking over... who knows what the Colts have planned this week. But it would be a very bad sign for Saturday’s strategic thinking if he doesn’t at least test the Raiders’ porous pass defense.

Then again, leaning on the run will be a lot more defensible if Jonathan Taylor is back in the lineup. Taylor has struggled this season—an obvious statement, with the Colts ranking 31st in EPA per rush. But in terms of his individual rushing metrics, he’s been more mediocre than bad.

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This rushing matchup doesn’t set him up for success, but if the passing game isn’t a total dumpster fire, he should be able to deliver RB2 value if he is healthy enough for something approaching his normal role.

As far as the receivers go, Michael Pittman remains the only reliable option. He ran a route on 96% of dropbacks against the Commanders and was at 95% against the Patriots. So he can at least be counted on to run all the routes. However, Pittman has not reliably drawn target opportunity this year. His 21% target rate isn’t terrible, but when combined with a 6.9 aDOT, his receiving profile is unimpressive on a per-route basis. That’s why Pittman’s elite route participation is so important. Because he’s on the field for virtually every route, he’s seen a 26% target share and 29% air yard share, both of which are strong marks.

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Pittman has a low floor, but he has a FLEX-worthy ceiling this week against a putrid Raiders pass defense. Outside of Pittman, Colts receivers do not look like good bets.

Alec Pierce would be interesting if he was in a full-time role, but with Ehlinger at quarterback, that hasn’t been the case. Pierce logged 68% route participation in Week 8. He was up to 81% in Week 9, but that usage still makes him too risky to trust in lineups.

Raiders Implied Team Total: 24.25

Derek Carr has certainly had his struggles this season, but all in all, his efficiency doesn’t look that bad. Carr ranks 13th in EPA per play and is coming off a week where he ranked eighth in EPA per play against the Jaguars. Carr’s issues this year have been with his accuracy. Last week he ranked just 20th in CPOE, and he ranks 25th this season.

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Carr’s accuracy could be having an effect on the Raiders’ play-calling. While Las Vegas is reasonably balanced overall, with a -1% PROE, they have been quite run heavy on first down, with a -6% PROE. Their overall approach resembles the Packers, a team that clearly limits its passing volume.

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But the Raiders could struggle against this defense if they build their game plan around the run. The Colts rank fourth in EPA allowed per rush and eighth in rushing success rate. They are much more vulnerable through the air, ranking just 25th in dropback success rate. The Colts aren’t a terrible pass defense but building their game plan around Carr gives the Raiders the best chance of success in this matchup.

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When Carr drops back to pass, his No. 1 target will obviously be Davante Adams. And if you’re hoping for a big day from Adams, you’re not alone.

jeff is gonna be faced with some tough choices in his coaching debut https://t.co/yntN0WALpX

— Denny Carter (@CDCarter13) November 9, 2022

Adams has a 31% target share and a 41% air yard share. And with a first-read target on 24% of his routes, the Raiders’ offense is designed to run through him. That design isn’t leaving a lot else for the Raiders other receivers, though. Adams has an elite 2.50 expected YPRR, while the rest of the Raiders’ receivers are seeing mediocre to poor per route opportunity. And with Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow both heading to injured reserve, Adams looks like the only game in town.

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Even if the Raiders do prioritize the passing game this week, one way or another, Josh Jacobs should see plenty of work. Jacobs has been such a strong fantasy selection the season in part because he has been involved in the passing game more than he was to start his career. Jacobs doesn’t have an elite receiving profile, but his 11% target share significantly boosts his fantasy stock in combination with his strong rushing profile. And Jacobs has been efficient as a receiver with a 1.12 YPRR.

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This isn’t an ideal matchup for Jacobs, but given that he leads the NFL with an 83% share of team attempts and ranks RB9 in expected points per game, he profiles as a low-end RB1 nonetheless.

Cowboys at Packers, 4:25 Eastern, Sunday

Cowboys Implied Team Total: 24

Week 8 was a glorious week for the Cowboys, with Tony Pollard living up to expectations in a 49-29 win over the Bears. But Pollard’s strong outing somewhat overshadowed an excellent performance from Dak Prescott. Prescott played poorly in a curtailed Week 1 appearance, but he played well against the Lions in Week 7. He was even better against the Bears, finishing second in EPA per play in Week 8 and fifth in CPOE.

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Even after a bad Week 1, Prescott now ranks seventh in EPA per play this season, between Joe Burrow and Geno Smith. But Prescott benefitted from two very easy matchups over the last two weeks. Both the Lions and Bears have bottom-10 pass defenses. The Packers are much more capable against the pass.

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Although, the Packers’ defense is likely to decline going forward. They lost Rashan Gary, their top pass rusher, to a torn ACL against the Lions. And cornerback Eric Stokes is likely to miss this game as well.

But even with Prescott at quarterback, the Cowboys have had a slight lean to the run this season. Facing an extremely weak Packers run defense that has also operated as a massive run funnel, the Cowboys are a good bet to limit passing volume. Passing going could further be limited by a Green Bay offense that will likely be both slow and run first this week.

With passing volume likely to be low, only CeeDee Lamb looks like a strong play in this passing game. Lamb has run a route on 98% of dropbacks this season and has an elite 31% target share and 40% air yard share. The offense is designed to run through him, with Lamb seeing a first-read target on 24% of his routes—an elite mark. Lamb also has an elite 2.25 YPRR, fully supported by his target volume. This isn’t an ideal game environment for Lamb, but enough targets could funnel his way to support a strong outing.

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Even with tight end being a wasteland, Dalton Schultz doesn’t look like an exciting play this week. Schultz is being targeted on 20% of his routes, which is a good rate for a tight end. But his routes have been managed over his last few games as he works through a knee injury. If that remains the case this week in a game that could see limited passing volume overall, he’ll likely need to get in the end zone to pay off.

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Although the Packers are very poor against the run, it’s also tough to trust the Cowboys backfield for the sole reason that Ezekiel Elliott will be back in the lineup. Elliott ranks RB38 in RYOE / attempt, so he has very little appeal unless he has a workhorse role. And given how well Pollard played in his absence, Jerry Jones would have to break into the coaches’ booth in order to keep Pollard from seeing a split role this week. But Pollard will be tough to trust, given that he ranks just RB39 in expected points per game this season. Still, Pollard leads the NFL in RYOE / attempt and is RB7 in breakaway yards per game, despite not being a starter. It’s definitely risky to start a player who is a bad bet to see true lead-back usage, but Pollard could light up this Packers’ run defense, making him a boom/bust RB2 play.

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Packers Implied Team Total: 19

The Packers are coming off one of the all-time get-right spots... but instead of getting right, they got wrecked. Having lost five straight games in a season where Aaron Rodgers has yet to throw for 300+ yards, this matchup looks like a near worst-case scenario.

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The Packers’ offensive line is held up pretty well this season, which should give them a chance against a Cowboys pass rush that ranks first in PFF’s grades and first in quick pressure rate. However, the Cowboys also have a very strong secondary, which is likely to give Rodgers trouble.

After back-to-back MVP seasons, Rogers ranks just 25th in EPA per play and 17th in CPOE. With Justin Fields’ recent improvement in play... Rodgers is now the least efficient quarterback in the NFC North.

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Life won’t get any easier without Romeo Doubs, who is set to miss an extended period with an ankle injury. Doubs hasn’t been all that impressive this season, but with a 16% target share, he was the Packers’ No. 2 option behind Allen Lazard. His absence will mean more routes for Sammy Wakins, who has been terrible at earning targets this season.

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Lazard ran a route on 96% of dropbacks against the Lions and should easily lead the Packers in routes this week. But Lazard could face additional defensive attention, which he hasn’t had to deal with at a high rate, with a double-team on just 15% of his routes. He’s a safe bet to lead the Packers in targets but profiles as an unexciting FLEX option in this difficult matchup.

Were he healthy, this would be an interesting matchup for Aaron Jones. The Cowboys aren’t bad against the run, but they have become a run funnel as teams work to avoid their pass rush. No team has caused a bigger shift to the run than the Cowboys. Additionally, Jones could have seen a lot of work in the quick passing game as another method of minimizing the Cowboys’ rush.

But although Jones is expected to play, he might not see his normal workload. Jones has been outstanding this season, but his opportunity has already been on the small side. He ranks RB17 with a 61% snap share and RB18 with 13.6 expected points per game. With a potentially managed workload, he shapes up as a middling RB2 play.

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A.J. Dillon could see increased touches this week, but he might need a lot more volume to deliver a strong fantasy performance. Dillon ranks an impressive RB8 in success rate. And if he were to operate as the Packers clear-cut lead running back, he could grind out a strong game on the ground. But Dillon ranks just RB27 in RYOE / attempt, RB40 in breakaway yards per game, and RB47 in elusive rating. He isn’t flashing a ton of burst or tackle-breaking ability, and so he looks like a low-end RB2 play on what will likely continue to be a split workload.

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Cardinals at Rams, 4:25 Eastern, Sunday

Cardinals Implied Team Total: 19.75

Kyler Murray is having a highly concerning season. He ranks just 24th in EPA per play and 24th in CPOE. Murray’s poor play is going slightly under the radar in fantasy circles because of his rushing ability and because his targets have been heavily concentrated, creating fantasy value in the receiving game. But Murray has been worse than Russell Wilson in EPA per play, and he’s been just slightly more efficient than Aaron Rodgers.

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Murray’s season has also been concerning because the Cardinals do not seem to have faith in him. Arizona ranks 19th with a -2% PROE. And with a -5% PROE on 1st-and-10, they rank just 22nd. The Cardinals look a lot like a team trying to hide its quarterback... to that point, look at how closely they resemble the Patriots.

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But limiting Murray’s passing volume isn’t likely to work this week against a Rams defense that is extremely strong against the run. Instead, the Cardinals would be much better off prioritizing the pass against a defense that ranks 20th in EPA allowed per dropback.

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To Kliff Kingsbury’s credit, this is what he did when the Cardinals played the Rams in Week 3. In that game, the Cardinals posted a 3% PROE and a 10% PROE on 1st-and-10. Unfortunately, that game plan didn’t work particularly well, with the Cardinals losing 20-12, but hopefully, Kingsbury is willing to be aggressive again now that he has DeAndre Hopkins to work with.

Hopkins has been an absolute force since returning from suspension. He has an elite 31% target share and 47% air yard share, yielding a 0.80 WOPR, the highest in the NFL. And the Cardinals’ offense is designed to get Hopkins the ball; he has seen a first three target on an elite 24% of his routes. Only Tyreek Hill and Amon-Ra St. Brown are seeing first-read targets at a higher rate.

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Hopkins’ profile looks matchup-proof, and this matchup could generate additional targets for him. He is locked in as an elite WR1.

Things are less rosy for Rondale Moore and Zach Ertz. Both players are coming off solid fantasy outings, but neither looks entirely trustworthy going forward. Moore saw 10 targets against the Seahawks but with just a 4.2 aDOT. Moore has just a 4.4 aDOT this season and relies heavily on overall passing volume to deliver fantasy value. On a per-route basis, his target opportunity is actually fairly weak.

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Ertz saved his game last week with a TD, and he’s never going to be a terrible TD-or-bust bet simply because he’s running so many routes. Ertz ran a route on 98% of dropbacks against the Seahawks and has an 88% route rate this season. But his per-route opportunity has been nearly as unimpressive as Moore’s. He’s in play this week, but he’s not an exciting play.

Given the difficult rushing matchup, James Conner doesn’t look like an ideal play. But it’s worth noting that he logged a 72% snap share against the Seahawks in his first game back from injury. Conner’s snap share was just 2% lower than Eno Benjamin‘s 74% from Week 8. I had assumed that Conner would play ahead of Benjamin in his return due to his pass-blocking ability, but I did not expect him to be a clear-cut lead back. His usage last week was a very bullish sign for his role going forward, especially considering how well Benjamin played in his absence.

Conner has not been impressive this season, but he is versatile. He’s been a solid tackle-breaker which has helped him deliver a decent success rate on the ground. And he is a good pass blocker who is also decently efficient as a receiver, ranking RB20 in YPRR. Conner will likely struggle with efficiency here, but he still profiles as a volume-based RB2.

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Rams Implied Team Total: 21.25

As bad as Kyler Murray has been this season, Matthew Stafford has been even worse. Stafford ranks just 28th in EPA per play, behind luminaries such as Cooper Rush and Taylor Heinicke. His accuracy has been slightly better; he ranks 18th in CPOE. But he’s hardly been impressive in that regard.

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And the Rams might not even have Stafford at quarterback as he works through the concussion protocol. That would assure inefficient quarterback play, as it would mean John Wolford will be under center. Wolford has played minimal snaps over the last two seasons, but he has not impressed when on the field.

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The Rams do at least get a very weak Cardinals defense. Arizona ranks dead last in dropback success rate, 28th in coverage grade, and 25th in EPA allowed per dropback. The Cardinals do get to the passer quickly, but preventing quick pressure is one of the things the Rams are doing well this season.

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When the Rams played the Cardinals in Week 3, their offensive line held up well. The Cardinals ranked just 25th in pressure rate and 31st in quick pressure rate. So even with Wolford at quarterback, the Rams may be effective enough to support Cooper Kupp.

Kupp had his worst game of the season against the Cardinals in Week 3, held to just 4-for-44 on 16 targets. Although being Kupp, he found a way to get into the end zone on a 20-yard rush. And Kupp had a 24% target share and 45% air yard share in that game. So his first outing doesn’t look like a red flag for the rematch. And he continues to dominate per-route volume.

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Kupp is combining per-route excellence with 98% route participation. But the other Rams receivers have either strong route participation with poor target volume (Allen Robinson) or decent target volume but uncertain route participation (Van Jefferson and Tyler Higbee). Although he would likely do more for the offense in a full-time role than Robinson, Jefferson has run a route on only 58% of dropbacks since his return from injury. He is off the fantasy radar.

Higbee had previously looked like the clear No. 2 option in this passing game, but his routes are now up in the air. Since Week 5, Higbee has been asked to pass block on at least 17% of his snaps. This is likely to be partially matchup driven. He blocked on 19% of snaps against the Cowboys, 22% against the Panthers, and 38% against the 49ers. Those teams have strong pass rush units, so it makes sense that Higbee was asked to block at a higher rate. But Higbee dealt with a back injury against the Buccaneers and was asked the block on 17% of his snaps. We could see limited snaps for Higbee this week as he works back from injury; if he also continues to block at a high rate in a John Wolford offense, you will not be happy with him in your starting lineup.

In the backfield, Cam Akers returned to the lineup against the Buccaneers, but he played just 19% of snaps. Instead, Darrell Henderson led the way. But he logged just a 49% snap share, with Malcolm Brown mixing in for 28%. Akers has been extremely inefficient this season, ranking dead last in RYOE / attempt. He’s not even in the dart throw mix until he starts seeing meaningful playing time. Henderson also looks like a very weak play. He ranks RB40 in expected points per game this season, and he’s not bringing any efficiency to the table.

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Chargers at 49ers, 8:20 Eastern, Sunday

Chargers Implied Team Total: 21.75

Justin Herbert is coming off a matchup against a Falcons defense that ranks 28th in EPA allowed per dropback and 31st in dropback success rate. In other words, the Falcons are about as easy of a matchup as it gets. But Herbert still managed to lead the Chargers to just 20 points, and he wasn’t particularly impressive, ranking 12th in EPA per play and ninth in CPOE.

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Obviously, Herbert is dealing with some extenuating circumstances; both of his top wide receivers are dealing with injuries. But that doesn’t change the fact that he could not fully take advantage of a juicy matchup without them. Given that he now faces a much more difficult 49ers defense, that is a concern.

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And Herbert has struggled with efficiency all season. He ranks just 18th in EPA per play and 22nd in CPOE. Herbert has been a slightly more accurate version of Jared Goff this season... which is not what we were promised.

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And the Chargers may not be interested in exposing Herbert to the 49ers’ strong pass defense without his top wide receivers. Instead, they could opt to go run-first, as they did last week.

Against the Falcons, the Chargers posted a -1% PROE, which is the second time they have passed less than expected all season. More strikingly, the Chargers had a -14% PROE on 1st-and-10; only the Panthers, Texans, Falcons, and Titans were more run-heavy on first down last week.

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If the Chargers attempt a similar plan against the 49ers, it’s not likely to go well against a defense that ranks eighth in EPA allowed per rush and third in rushing success rate. Instead, a heavy dose of the run on first down will likely put Herbert in suboptimal and obvious passing situations. And so, with both coaching and matchup red flags, it’s difficult to bet on efficiency for the Chargers offense.

Although credit where credit is due, Josh Palmer managed a 2.41 YPRR against the Falcons and posted a 24% target share and a 34% air yard share. If you’re looking to bet on a Chargers wide receiver, Palmer is the most likely one to hit. However, Palmer still seems like a somewhat poor bet to make. He saw a first-read target on 11% of his routes against the Falcons; that was lower than DeAndre Carter (13%) and Michael Bandy (13%). All three receivers should be involved in the game plan this week, making Palmer challenging to count on.

But given his tight end eligibility, Gerald Everett looks mildly interesting. He ran a route on 80% of dropbacks against the Falcons, bringing his route participation up to 67% this year. Everett’s per-route volume isn’t anything special, but his routes could be up again with pass-catching options in short supply.

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Even with a difficult matchup on tap, Austin Ekeler remains an elite play. He should be a frequent outlet for Herbert, as he has been all season. Ekeler’s 21% target share ranks behind only Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara among running backs. And he’s been highly efficient as a receiver, ranking RB6 in YPRR.

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Ekeler was a big beneficiary of the Chargers’ lack of receiving weapons against the Falcons; he led the team with a first-read target on 14% of his routes. His receiving work has driven an extremely valuable workload that ranks RB2 in expected points per game. So even in a week where the Chargers could struggle, Ekeler is locked in.

49ers Implied Team Total: 26.25

In his first game with Christian McCaffrey in a full-time role, Jimmy Garoppolo had his most complete game of the season. Garoppolo finished fourth in EPA per play in Week 8, but he was nearly as efficient in Week 2 and was actually more efficient against the Panthers in Week 5. However, for just the second time all season, Garoppolo posted a positive CPOE. Interestingly, Garoppolo’s only other above-expected week in accuracy was Week 7. If Garoppolo can continue to deliver strong accuracy, it will make it much easier to buy into him sustaining the impressive efficiency that he has provided this season.

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Given the timing of Garoppolo’s accuracy spike, it’s hard not to wonder if McCaffrey made a difference. Because McCaffrey was highly involved in the receiving game. He ran a route on 69% of dropbacks and was targeted on a ridiculous 45% of his routes. His 36% target share was the highest by any 49er all season. So it wasn’t like McCaffrey was a minor addition to the passing game; he had a massive presence in Week 8.

McCaffrey will now have to coexist with Deebo Samuel, who is set to return from injury. But McCaffrey doesn’t have to lead the 49ers in target share to remain in elite running back play... the fact that he could is just a reminder of his ridiculously high ceiling.

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Even if you were worried about McCaffrey’s effect on the 49ers’ receivers... you may not have been worried enough. Brandon Aiyuk made out fine in Week 8, posting a 6-81-1 receiving line with a 24% target share and a 30% air yard share. And George Kittle saved his day with a TD, going 3-39-1 with a 16% target share and an 18% air yard share. But with Samuel back in the mix, the target competition in San Francisco is exceptionally fierce. So if McCaffrey’s usage is anywhere near where it was against the Rams, the rest of the 49ers receivers are likely to deal with mediocre per-route volume.

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The good news here is that the Chargers are terrible against both the pass and the run. As the Falcons showed last week with a -21% PROE, you can be quite competitive against the Chargers even if you refuse to pass the ball. But there’s no reason to be as ideological as Atlanta was last week because the Chargers rank just 20th in dropback success rate and don’t do a good job of getting to the quarterback.

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The 49ers have a clear tilt to the run with a -4% PROE this season. And they are coming off a -1% PROE against a talented Rams run defense, so they are a good bet to be run first this week. But they should at least be efficient when Garoppolo drops back. This makes all of Samuel, Aiyuk, and Kittle interesting bet on talent plays. And as far as volume goes, don’t count out Aiyuk. He leads the 49ers with a first-read target on 17% of his routes, with Samuel and Kittle at 14%. Samuel could see more of an emphasis this week now that he’ll presumably return to a traditional wide receiver role. But Aiyuk has functionally been the 49ers’ No. 1 receiver, and that could continue against the Chargers. Given what could be a low-volume passing environment, multiple 49ers are likely to disappoint. But they each have high individual ceilings.

Commanders at Eagles, 8:15 PM Eastern, Monday

Commanders Implied Team Total: 16.5

Taylor Heinicke hasn’t been terrible this season, but he has not been good, either. He ranks 27th in EPA per play and 28th in CPOE. Heinicke essentially profiles as a slightly better version of Carson Wentz.

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Speaking of Wentz, the last time the Commanders played the Eagles, he was badly exposed, finishing 30th in EPA per play and 30th in CPOE. Taylor Heinicke has been slightly more efficient than Wentz this year... but he hasn’t played the Eagles yet.

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The Eagles have had a relatively easy schedule as far as opposing passing offenses go, so their pass defense isn’t quite as imposing as the numbers suggest. However, they are more than capable of shutting down Washington through the air. As a result, the Commanders will likely pivot hard to the run, attacking an Eagles run defense that looks genuinely vulnerable.

Of course, the issue there is that Brian Robinson will be getting a significant chunk of those carries. And no running back has had a lower success rate this season than Robinson.

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In fairness to Robinson, Antonio Gibson hasn’t been special. He ranks just RB34 in RYOE / attempt, just two spots ahead of Robinson. But Gibson has been far more consistent, ranking RB16 in success rate. More importantly, he offers genuine efficiency in the passing game; Gibson ranks RB4 in YPRR.

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Even against a soft run defense, both backs look like dart-throw RB2 options. The Commanders are likely to struggle overall, and with the workload split, Robinson is unlikely to pay off without a TD. Gibson is a better bet... but only assuming J.D. McKissic misses another game.

With volume likely to be highly limited, only Terry McLaurin holds any interest in the passing game. But McLaurin does not look like a great option. He’s done well in games with Heinicke, but he’s running hot with a 10.5 YPT this season. That could come crashing down against this capable secondary. McLaurin’s underlying volume is actually fairly unimpressive. He’s in the FLEX mix, but you might have a better option this week.

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Eagles Implied Team Total: 27.5

As I noted before Week 8, the Eagles appear to have multiple gears to their offense. My read is that when the Eagles can protect Jalen Hurts, they prefer to attack downfield. Week 8 was a perfect example of this approach, with A.J. Brown torching the Steelers.

If protection is an issue, as it was against the Cardinals, they can pivot to a quick passing game. This has tended to benefit DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, who see a much higher percentage of their targets on screens (20% and 27%) than Brown (8%).

And the Eagles have also shown a willingness to go run-heavy, posting a -16% PROE in windy conditions against the Jaguars and a -7% PROE against a run funnel Cowboys defense. However, this week, a run-heavy approach is unlikely, given that the Commanders have one of the strongest run defenses in the league.

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But the Commanders are also solid against the pass and could force the Eagles to pivot off their primary downfield approach. In Week 3, the Eagles’ offensive line held up well. The Commanders ranked just 28th in pressure rate, and Hurts attacked aggressively downfield. Smith drew 12 targets with an ultradeep 17.4 aDOT, Brown saw nine targets with a 14.9 aDOT, and all three of the Eagles’ primary pass catchers got in the end zone. It could be a similarly fun passing day if the Eagles can protect well again.

Even if the Commanders’ pass rush is more effective this week, Smith and Goedert should be heavily involved on short passes and Brown... is still A.J. Brown. All three players look like strong bets.

Miles Sanders looks like a shakier play, given the potential for the Eagles to attack primarily through the air. Sanders has been solid this season, but he ranks just RB21 in expected points per game.

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Given that the Commanders’ defense is genuinely formidable against the run, it is unlikely that the pass-first Eagles choose to lean on Sanders in a big way. As a result, he is likely to be working with an RB2 workload. His offense is high-powered enough that he could still turn in an RB1 day. But he’s more likely to produce like a middling RB2.

Sources

To write this article I relied on the following stats, metrics and grades.

• Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play).
  • Efficiency metric based on how much a play improved a team’s likelihood of scoring.
  • I use this metric primarily for QB efficiency, but also for defensive efficiency.
    • Data from Ben Baldwin’s rbsdm.com
    • For quarterback EPA I reference Adjusted EPA, which discounts penalties for turnovers.
• Completion Percentage Over Expected
  • QB accuracy metric
    • Data from rbsdm.com
• Pass Rate over Expected
  • Measures passing decisions against what would be expected given the game situation.
    • Data from rbsdm.com
• Situation Neutral Pass Rate
  • Measures pass rate on downs and in situations when a team truly has the choice to pass or run.
    • Data from rbsdm.com
• Situation Neutral Seconds per Play
  • Seconds between plays in neutral game script.
  • Faster play generally means more plays, which provides more opportunity for fantasy scoring.
    • Data from Football Outsiders
• Adjusted Line Yards
  • Run blocking stat that has been correlated with elite fantasy running back seasons.
    • Data from Football Outsiders
• Snaps and Snap Share
  • Probably the single most important stat for running back opportunity.
    • Teams check in and out of runs with only one back on the field. Being on the field is critical.
    • Data from Pro Football Focus, AddMoreFunds and RotoViz
  • Third down and Red Zone Snaps from Sam Hoppen’s Player Stat Explorer at 4for4.com
• Target Share and Air Yard share
  • The combination of these is called WOPR. Created by Josh Hermsmeyer, this metric scales from 0-1.
    • Data from Pro Football Focus and RotoViz
• Routes run per dropback
  • Snap share for receivers... since I’m not concerned with who is playing run-blocking snaps.
    • Data from Pro Football Focus
• Yards Per Route Run
  • A YPRR of 1.8+ is good and anything 2+ is very good.
  • This metric is particularly useful for young wide receivers whose role could grow as a result of strong play.
  • It can also help identify truly elite wide receivers.
  • It filters out in-game injuries and blowouts much better than target share does.
    • Data from PFF
• Expected YPRR
  • Derived from Ben Gretch’s Weighted Targets per Route Run calculation
    • Scaled to 0 - 3.5, in line with YPRR instead of 0 - 1 scale.
• Target per Route Run
  • TPRR and Yards per Target combine to make up YPRR.
  • TPRR is especially useful for tight ends.
    • Some offenses and quarterbacks prioritize throwing to the tight end much more than others.
    • Some tight ends are far better at getting open than others.
  • TPRR is much more stable than YPT, so in small samples especially, I’d rather know who is drawing targets than what happened afterward.
• Expected Fantasy Points.
  • Both RotoViz and PFF have similar Expected Points metrics that adjust opportunity based on the context of each play.
    • I am referencing PFF’s metric unless otherwise stated.
• A number of other PFF stats including Time to Throw, Play Action Rate, Pressure Rate, Screen Passes and Defensive Grades.