This was one of the deepest rookie tight end classes in recent NFL history. Up until the draft actually happened, there were informed people talking up and down about the idea that three or more of them could go in the first round. Instead, Dalton Kincaid was the only one to hit the first round, and only barely so at 26th overall. Health concerns pushed Darnell Washington to deep into the third round. The tight ends that did land in good offenses in the second round landed in places where they likely won’t be counted on early. I would never tip the general idea of my column in the first paragraph, but even Kyle Pitts’ 1,000-yard rookie season came with just one touchdown and long stretches of him being virtually useless for fantasy purposes.
Let’s discuss how things changed and what it means for fantasy football, because we have no choice. The discourse must be had.
The discourse must be had: Dalton Kincaid
Kincaid has climbed into low-end TE1 conversation on ADP in best ball sites, and he’s spiking fast along with the rhetoric that the Bills will use him as essentially their slot receiver in 2023. I think the Bills deserve credit for absolutely destroying every writer who ever had something bad to say about their Josh Allen pick -- something I never did, no, of course not, please do not Google anything about me and let me live in peace -- but the idea of Kincaid being used as a slot receiver would make him a historic outlier.
The Bills used 12-personnel formations just 5 percent of the time last season. Clearly that will go up to some extent this year with Dawson Knox also on the roster. But even teams that use 12-personnel often rarely get past using it 25-30% of the snaps. The only team that used 12-personnel more than 30% of the time in 2021 was the Dolphins, and that team was coordinated by a couple of coaches who were quickly fired for Mike McDaniel. McDaniel then came in and used 12-personnel on 11% of the snaps in 2022, and essentially shackled Mike Gesicki to the bench for not being able to block.
Is Kincaid worth a shot as a low-end TE1 type? I think so! It’s a good offense! I’m in no means trying to say that the rest of the low-end TE1 field is good or worth trumpeting over him. But I think the idea of building your entire draft around getting him falls flat in the face of the data. Kincaid has Knox in his position, and unless he is just literally a wide receiver and becomes a tight end in name only like Travis Kelce, he will lose some snaps to Knox. I see a good player in a good offense who wouldn’t surprise me if he finished in the TE5-TE8 range. I don’t think the structural upside is there for Kincaid to be more than that without a lot of touchdown luck and/or him becoming a major outlier in everything we know about rookie tight ends.
And if the Bills hadn’t already pulled what they pulled with Allen, I would be -- let’s be honest -- much more smug about dismissing the idea on its face. The idea of the Rob Gronkowski-Aaron Hernandez Patriots is oft-dreamed on, but rarely does it actually lead to something.
Wide-open depth charts with new rookies: Michael Mayer, Sam LaPorta, Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft
Mayer enters as a one-for-one Darren Waller replacement in Las Vegas, and the depth chart in front of him is assorted veteran fodder -- Austin Hooper AND O.J. Howard, how could Josh McDaniels go wrong? It is worth noting that most of George Kittle‘s best fantasy production in 2022 (seven of his 11 touchdowns) came with Brock Purdy under center rather than Jimmy Garoppolo. I think Mayer is in a good place to eventually be on the TE1 radar. The short-term situation might be a little messy with Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Hunter Renfrow all having relevant (if not dominant in Adams’ case) fantasy seasons last year. He’s someone I’d be more interested in having for Weeks 10-17 than the first couple of months.
I came into the draft with LaPorta very high on the monitor list because anyone who can catch 111 balls on the last two Iowa teams deserves a medal. This is not my favorite situation for him to land in. While the Lions don’t have an established tight end to block him out of playing time, the meat of their over-the-middle offense ran through Amon-Ra St. Brown last season. In fact, that was part of why T.J. Hockenson was considered as expendable as he was at the trade deadline last year. Hockenson went over 50 yards just twice with the Lions in 2022, and while he had a huge outlier blowup performance against the Seahawks in a 45-point outburst, he was arguably a fantasy disappointment before the trade. Now you add that Jahmyr Gibbs just got selected 12th overall and at least part of that is replicating the D’Andre Swift package in a form that the Lions will not decide that they hate for whatever reason, so he’ll be eating a chunk of targets as well. I love LaPorta’s talent, but the opportunity does not get me excited.
The Packers are a) not bringing back Marcedes Lewis and already lost Robert Tonyan, b) have a weak depth chart at wideout with several rookies and unproven youngsters, and c) committed 31% of their offensive snaps to 12-personnel last year. Into this beautiful situation in which Josiah Deguara is the only returning tight end with more than 200 snaps, Musgrave has a pillow-soft landing. Green Bay’s projected third wideout is a different second-round rookie. I noted that I felt Jordan Love was overlooked in last week’s column on the quarterback landscape. I think the Baby Packers have some real fantasy appeal. I don’t mind taking stabs on Musgrave late in the draft if I need a TE1 sleeper that I can cut bait on quickly if it doesn’t work out. And I believe his long-term future is bright as well. Kraft could also become that guy, but the capital ahead of him probably demands us to treat him as more of a flier until we see something happen on the field.
Beneficiaries of the draft: Chigoziem Okonkwo, Dalton Schultz, Tyler Higbee, Juwan Johnson, Gerald Everett, Irv Smith, Logan Thomas
The Titans did not add a single wideout in the draft until the seventh round. A new general manager adds some risk to the situation -- a preseason trade is squarely on the board for me -- but the Titans don’t really seem to have a better choice but to have Okonkwo and Treylon Burks make up 70%+ of the passing offense. Okonkwo currently belongs in the low-end TE1 shuffle to me. ... The Texans added only Tank Dell to their receiver core in the draft, and I can’t find it in me to be scared about Teagan Quitoriano ravaging the Schultz snaps. Schultz has been targeted 282 times in the last three seasons. Nico Collins has been targeted 126 times in the last two, and Robert Woods appeared to be on the decline with the Titans last year. Give me Schultz as the favorite to lead Texans receivers this year, and maybe that has more fantasy relevance than you’d think.
With the Allen Robinson project properly excommunicated and Van Jefferson failing to ever take off, Higbee enters the year as an easy pick for best secondary receiver on the Rams behind Cooper Kupp. They will probably be throwing a lot unless we see a surprise turnaround from last year. Higbee’s targets spiked to 108 in 2022 and, while Kupp will be the real hog, I could see Higbee get back around 90-100 again this year. That’s a worthwhile low-end TE1. ... Discussing The Fantasy Implications Of The Huge Adam Trautman Trade, Pt. I: Trautman hogged snaps from Juwan Johnson when he was healthy last year. The Saints added only a sixth-round wideout in the draft, and once we can finally stop pretending Michael Thomas will be healthy, Johnson could very well enter the No. 2 receiver role for the Saints behind Chris Olave. The only other tight end of note on the depth chart is Taysom Hill, who is only of note because he’s not really a tight end.
There was speculation that the Rams would ditch Gerald Everett for cap space this offseason, but instead they decided to roll back the Everett-Donald Parham combo from 2022. I’m not excited to start Everett last year, but he lands firmly in the “Tight End In A Good Offense With Some Increased Touchdown Possibilities” Tier. ... Joining that tier for as long as he’s actually able to stay healthy in 2023 will be Irv Smith. Smith played in 16 games in his rookie season and just 21 in the next three years. The Bengals did absolutely nothing at tight end in the draft, and it looks like Smith will roll forward as a potential starter. ... The Commanders’ focus on their other needs lets Logan Thomas roll back as a starter for arguably a second season too many, and if you need someone to get you 30 yards a game as your TE3, he’s available.
Losers of the draft: Dawson Knox, Greg Dulcich, Noah Fant, Trey McBride
Knox is discussed above. I tend to believe Kincaid will cut into Knox’s snaps more than I believe the two of them will co-exist at the same time. He hits the Everett tier after the draft. ... The Fantasy Implications Of The Adam Trautman Trade, Pt. II: Dulcich is now on a crowded tight end depth chart with an offensive staff that didn’t draft him, and that team also just added one of their old favorites while trading up for Marvin Mims in the second round. Even if the Broncos are able to turn Russell Wilson around, there are a lot of mouths to feed on this offense. I can’t imagine drafting Dulcich amongst the top-20 at his position now.
Seattle’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba pick should get them running more efficient 11-personnel packages this year with Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. Fant was hardly relevant-for-fantasy last year with just one 50-yard game and four scores, it’s hard to see the path for him to get there in 2023 either. ... McBride could have been the focal point of a new-look offense that plans to throw a lot. Instead, the Cardinals haven’t moved on from DeAndre Hopkins or Hollywood Brown, still have Zach Ertz under contract, added Stanford receiver Michael Wilson in the third round, and waited until the fifth round to add a new quarterback to the room in Clayton Tune. McBride started to get some traction towards the end of last year, but I don’t know that there’s enough space for him to get his in 2023 as things currently stand.
Good rookie opportunity, is this guy a good receiver?: Luke Schoonmaker, Darnell Washington
The Cowboys depth chart as things currently stand is: Schoonmaker, Jake Ferguson, and Peyton Hendershot. Schoonmaker is the highest-drafted player of the three, has the athletic profile of someone who can do much more than he did at Michigan, and looks the part. But when the entirety of the smoke coming out of the draft room is about how good of a blocker you are, and the entirety of the offensive identity talk this year directly leads to “run ball more,” I can’t imagine much immediate upside it’s important to pounce on. ... Fitting in as the second tight end on the Steelers behind Pat Freiermuth isn’t the worst landing spot for Washington, who is a Warhammer figure on a regular chess board at 6-foot-7, 269 pounds and had some scouts talking about him as a potential offensive line conversion. Freiermuth’s concussion history is worth noting. But neither the overall fantasy value of the landing spot nor the current depth chart lead me to believe Washington should be considered in the first two rounds of rookie drafts.
