Every year, the NFL Draft brings sweeping changes to the fantasy landscape. Then everything settles down and breathes for three months. While we might get a tidbit from OTAs here or there to overreact to, most of what we know about the upcoming season has been finalized.
We had the potential of three or four rookie quarterbacks getting full-time jobs, possibly five if Hendon Hooker‘s agents had any sway in the NFL community. We wound up with three rookie quarterbacks with real shots to win jobs in Carolina, Houston, and Indianapolis. The Aaron Rodgers trade finally happened. The Lamar Jackson contract was finally signed. And in between those three scenarios, a few situations that were on sketchy ground have now solidified.
Let’s discuss how things changed and what it means for fantasy football.
Situations we knew were going to change in the draft: Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson
Anthony Richardson has settled into the No. 1 rookie option by ADP early in the offseason, being drafted as a high-end QB2 in best ball on the potential of Shane Steichen‘s offense and his ability to contribute rushing upside. I maintain some level of skepticism that Richardson will function enough as a passer to guarantee that he’ll be starting in Week 1 -- not because of his lack of talent, but because of his lack of experience -- but I have to admit that everything sets up pretty well for him in theory. Jalen Hurts ran Steichen’s offense well and Steichen used Hurts’ rushing ability, I loved the Josh Downs pick for the Colts and assuming he’s ready quickly they should have a competent three-wide set. The AFC South defenses should be gettable if not something the Colts can expect to dominate right off the bat. This is a pick that has a low floor, one where a 9-for-18 passing performance for 85 yards is a week that’s definitely in play -- so make sure you get a third quarterback if this is your game in best ball.
For both Young and Stroud, we have ADPs that are more in line with a bottom-end QB2. I think both of them have an upside case, and I’m going to buck the consensus a little bit and tell you I like Stroud’s more. The Shanahan offense that Bobby Slowik figures to use has a long history of passing success in the NFL, Houston’s wideout situation looks a little rosier with the addition of Tank Dell and a potential comeback for John Metchie III. And though the Texans added Juice Scruggs as a trade-up in the second round to try to fill center, their running game potential is unsettled enough that they could lean towards the pass in script-neutral situation. I’ve believed Stroud has the highest floor of the quarterbacks in this year’s draft. A defensive-minded head coach looms as the downside, but I could see Stroud creating some Garoppolo-esque fantasy lines in his rookie season, especially if Houston’s defense is not yet talented enough to keep games close.
For Young, one major issue is the shape of the NFC South, which is now a division that carries a ton of rough game-script scenarios between Arthur Smith, Todd Bowles, and potential poor quarterback situations. That said, I think the job Frank Reich did in Indianapolis with limited quarterback play has become underappreciated. The Panthers added Jonathan Mingo to deep threat DJ Chark and the veteran Adam Thielen. Like the Texans, they don’t really have a true No. 1 wideout, but they make up for it with depth. Young’s 2022 season was good enough that you could tell me he finished as a low-end QB1 this year and I’d believe you, but nothing else about this situation -- especially with how good the Carolina defense should be -- screams “fantasy value.”
Situations that were thrown into some level of flux by the draft: Jared Goff, Ryan Tannehill
Neither of these players are in any immediate threat of being replaced, but their long-term future is now in doubt and they become risks for an in-game benching if they play poorly. The drafting of Hendon Hooker -- who might be ready to start practicing in full by September -- probably makes Goff more of a bench risk in November and December rather than anything immediate. The Lions are a good enough team that I think it’s unlikely that Goff will be benched late in the season just to check out Hooker, but it does create a lower floor for him and I think we should react to that. Where I once saw a potential low-end QB1, I now see a high-end QB2. But once Jameson Williams comes back from his gambling suspension, I think Goff has the talent to play back at low-end QB1 levels and occasionally hit a spike week.
With Tannehill, I think the bottom just completely fell out of his stock. Not only did he get no real wideout help, he also now has a highly-drafted second-round rookie who the team traded up for nipping at his heels in Will Levis. The Titans have nothing invested in Tannehill beyond this year and every reason in the world to want to give Levis a tryout down the stretch unless they’re in the AFC South race. I have a lot of respect for what Tannehill did for the Titans a few years ago. This is a rough situation for fantasy value even if he’s playing well. You can do better.
Situations that stabilized after the draft: Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love, Geno Smith, Mac Jones, Desmond Ridder, Jimmy Garoppolo, Sam Howell (to the extent it could post-Jacoby Brissett)
The two big dominoes unfolded as expected, though Jackson finally signed a long-term extension with the Ravens instead of drifting along on the tag as was possible. I am in on Jackson at current mid-QB1 ADP levels, but I’m worried that the hype will climb out of control with Todd Monken at offensive coordinator portending a shift to more passing. The skill group of Mark Andrews, Odell Beckham, Zay Flowers, and Rashod Bateman looks very formidable on paper. I just think it’s hotter on paper than it is in reality, where Beckham and Bateman are coming off lost years and Jackson’s health has been unreliable. Rarely does this much change just instantly mesh together to become what it could be. Putting him above Joe Burrow would be too rich for my blood, and I’m inclined to take Justin Herbert over him as well.
I’m out on Rodgers as a low-end QB1 for reasons I expressed a couple of weeks ago -- to me he’s a mid-tier QB2.
My love of Geno Smith from said previous piece has only grown now that he has been handed Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a slot receiver. I think he’s a rock-solid low-end QB1 with mid-tier QB1 upside this season. It has apparently been memory-wiped from people’s minds Men In Black-style based on his ADP this offseason, but Smith did finish fourth amongst QBs in fantasy points last season. The only moves the Seahawks have made on offense this offseason should be net positives for him, and last year’s rookie class on paper should only be stronger.
Jordan Love, I think, is the most overlooked QB in fantasy right now. His Underdog ADP is mere spots ahead of Bryce Young and I think his upside is being dismissed. The Packers receiving corps that was “holding Aaron Rodgers back” blossomed down the stretch and the Matt LaFleur offense is full of easy button solutions. They return a healthy Romeo Doubs off a midseason high-ankle sprain. The Packers spent heavily in the draft and now have Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave as potential early solutions. Love has some rushing upside despite little regular season evidence of it, as he took off five times in his lone start and rushed eight times for 42 yards in the 2022 preseason. The NFC North is far from scary, especially the defenses, and I think defenses will focus on stopping Green Bay’s run game until Love proves he can beat them. I’m not quite ready to spray paint “league winner” on Love, but I do think he has real paths to mid-QB1 upside that are perhaps being slept on.
Ridder is the quarterback I’m most fascinated by, because I did not think that what he showed last year warranted any kind of respect this offseason. Not only did he survive Lamar Jackson in the draft, but he’s also added Bijan Robinson to the troop and we’ve got Arthur Smith on the record saying the team will throw more in 2023.
Arthur Smith, pointedly, says the team wants to throw more often this season
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) April 28, 2023
"More balance. The way we want to play."
they better. Just 24.4 pass att per game last year (31st) pic.twitter.com/kGVmSy8XJu
I think we can’t rule out Ridder improving. He did rush 16 times for 64 yards in four starts. He also rushed eight times for 58 yards in the 2022 preseason. This is a situation where what the head coach did last year worries me, and where the addition of Robinson makes me think they’re more than happy to pound the rock despite their public proclamations. But I also don’t want to give up on Ridder entirely as a fantasy asset. He’s a low-end QB2 to me to start, but I think he’s got a real chance to be something this year given the talent around him if the coaching staff trusts him. He’s going to be someone on my appointment viewing list in the preseason and early in the regular season.
The other three are more QB2 stabs than anything you want in non-superflex leagues. I’m not interested in Mac Jones as I think the Pats both a) have the weakest supporting cast of this tier of players and b) are banking entirely on improvement from Bill O’Brien, who is the entire reason that Bryce Young had to fight a draft narrative about sacks. Also, I’m not entirely sure that Jones is better than Bailey Zappe. Garoppolo and Howell both have better supporting casts -- I love the idea of a young quarterback under Eric Bieniemy throwing at Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. I’m just not sure it should be Howell and the Brissett signing screams “we’re not sure either.” I don’t love Derek Carr, but I think if he couldn’t do much in fantasy football with this same setup, I’m worried that Garoppolo will also be unable to do that. Both of them are low-end QB2s to me with a lean towards Howell for the unknown and the bit of rushing upside I perceive him to have over Jimmy G.
Situations that you are probably streaming D/STs against: Baker Mayfield, Colt McCoy
The Buccaneers didn’t add anybody at quarterback, which stabilized Baker Mayfield, but also forced them to use Baker Mayfield. You can see the problem. I’m in full-on fade on anybody in a Bucs uniform not named Rachaad White after Todd Bowles managed to march Tom Brady to retirement last year. Now he’s working with, instead of the best quarterback of all-time, someone who is barely hanging on as an NFL starter.
The Cardinals added Clayton Tune in the fourth round, which will come in handy because Colt McCoy is entering that stage of his quarterback career where he breaks on contact. (I don’t say this to question anybody’s toughness, Colt McCoy is much tougher than me. He just can’t take an NFL beating. And neither can I.) I don’t particularly think much of Tune as a fantasy starter considering Arizona named Drew Petzing offensive coordinator and we have no idea what that means yet. But I also can’t rule out the idea that Tune starts over (checks roster) really ... Jeff Driskel is here? ... and David Blough while Kyler Murray is rehabbing. Murray will be a full-fade from me until we hear better health news. The other Cardinals quarterbacks will be full fades because they’re not good enough to start in fantasy football.
