The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. Get it here!
You drafted a fantasy football team this year, and you drafted James Robinson. So this is your fault.
I’m sorry, that was strong. Hi, I’m Rivers. We all know how important bellcow fantasy running backs are and that’s why they were the predominant top-five picks in most formats these past few months. But odds are you picked some other running backs as well, because unless you used your first four picks on backs, you probably didn’t end up with many of those bellcows. Curious! Let’s take a look at what Week 1 gave us for some of the backfields that weren’t quite so easy to read in advance and remain cloudy going forward.
Arizona
Chase Edmonds (12 carries, 63 yards, four targets, 38 snaps)
James Conner (16 carries, 53 yards, 35 snaps)
This looks like a pretty even split, but the game-scripting involved does not make it seem quite so cut-and-dry. Connor didn’t receive a carry until the Cardinals were up 17-0. Of Conner’s 16 carries, 11 of them came in the third quarter with Arizona salting away an enormous lead. Edmonds was involved early and often -- though perhaps not as effectively as one would like -- and if anything Conner’s lack of threat to him early in the game is probably a sign that he was a bit underrated in fantasy circles. The read here is that Edmonds is the primary back and Conner is a situational and goal-line threat at best. He could potentially be nothing more than a back that gets broken out every five series. [[ad:athena]]
Denver
Melvin Gordon (11 carries, 101 yards, TD, three targets, 32 snaps)
Javonte Williams (14 carries, 45 yards, one target, 34 snaps)
Seniority won out for now -- The Broncos did not give Javonte Williams consecutive carries until they had a 17-7 third quarter lead. Seven of Williams’ 14 carries came with the extreme positive game script. Gordon didn’t exactly dominate outside of his one 70-yard touchdown carry, but that’s a real pretty box score line. Williams looked game for the assignment as well and faced more stacked boxes on his carries. In the end, this probably doesn’t change most priors: the rookie will probably gain more trust as the season goes on, but for now you can expect the roughly 50/50 backfield split to continue.
Houston
Mark Ingram (26 carries, 85 yards, TD, one target, 35 snaps)
Phillip Lindsay (eight carries, 25 yards, TD, one target, 20 snaps)
David Johnson (three carries, 10 yards, three targets, receiving TD, 22 snaps)
Rex Burkhead (one target, 10 snaps)
The game script here played pretty heavily into Mark Ingram-style football and that’s exactly how it shook out for the Texans. You cannot possibly be confident that he’ll get that wide a share of the split, but if there are other games out there where the Texans threaten to crockpot somebody if they get out to a big lead, the Ingram upside exponentially rises. Lindsay’s lone touchdown came with Ingram as a wildcat quarterback at the goal line, and Johnson’s touchdown catch was early in the game on third-and-goal. Johnson will continue to operate as the team’s third-down back, Ingram is probably the safest bet to wind up with 50% of the carries. Beyond that, we’re all guessing.
Jacksonville
Carlos Hyde (nine carries, 44 yards, two targets, 25 snaps)
James Robinson (five carries, 25 yards, six targets, 46 snaps)
This was a weird game for Robinson, with a long early run called back for holding and Urban Meyer seeming to favor his matchups in the passing game early, as Doug Marrone did before him. Hyde should have always been regarded as a credible threat to Robinson and the split unfortunately for Robinson owners may be closer to 60/40 in Robinson’s favor than the hoped for 70/30 or 80/20. Both players looked explosive and fine, and in the event of another game-scripting you value Robinson’s ability to stay on the field, but the Jags looked out-of-sync in a way that made it impossible to tell who would get goal-line carries and how that would change Robinson’s upside.
Editor’s Note: Drafting is only half the battle! Get an edge on your competition with our NFL Season Tools - available in our EDGE+ Roto tier for $3.99/mo. (annually) or $9.99/mo. (monthly) - that are packed with rankings, projections, a trade evaluator, start/sit tools and much more. And don’t forget to use promo code SAVE10 to get 10% off. Click here to learn more!
Miami
Myles Gaskin (nine carries, 49 yards, five targets, 29 snaps)
Malcolm Brown (five carries, 16 yards, 16 snaps)
Salvon Ahmed (three carries, four yards, three targets, 11 snaps)
Well, if you did draft Myles Gaskin early, you have to be happy that the numbers look the way that they do now. Three of Browns runs happened as the Dolphins were killing clock to end the game. Two of them happened in a Wildcat package that has to be Chad Pennington trolling resurrected. Gaskin had most of the carries to start the game and to start the second half, which was comforting even if the total package wasn’t something you’re thrilled about today. It was a low-snap game -- the Dolphins only had nine total drives -- which contributed to the usage. Going forward you probably can’t comfortably project Gaskin as more than a 60-65 percent share of the load because this is what the Dolphins do at this point. But he remains the committee leader and in that sense most preseason priors were confirmed. Be thankful neither Brown nor Ahmed did anything especially worthwhile.
New York Jets
Tevin Coleman (nine carries, 24 yards, 17 snaps)
Ty Johnson (four carries, 15 yards, three targets, 35 snaps)
Michael Carter (four carries, 6 yards, two targets, 16 snaps)
Grim, for fantasy purposes. Particularly against a Panthers defense that wasn’t supposed to be all that great, and now adding on the potential of Mekhi Becton missing time. Johnson seems to shake out of this as the surest thing, as he was all preseason. Carter is the one who is going to make splashy plays. Coleman is the one that the coaches are most familiar with from his time in San Francisco. If you’re in such a deep league that you absolutely have to roster one of these guys, it’s probably Johnson at this point.
Philadelphia
Miles Sanders (15 carries, 74 yards, five targets, 47 snaps)
Kenneth Gainwell (nine carries, 37 yards, TD, three targets, 25 snaps)
Well, first thing’s first: Sorry Boston Scott. That was an excellent catch you made on SNF that one time, but Nick Sirianni does not appear to care. Unroster Scott in most leagues. After you do that, this remains pretty close to the preseason priors. We expected Sanders to lead a committee at about a 60-70% rate, and we expected somebody to be there beyond Sanders. Gainwell had another touchdown called back on penalty and looked like a more comfortable back between the tackles, which could unlock some new downside for Sanders if Gainwell gets to be the mythological goal-line back. Sanders looks like a hold for now, but Gainwell could be a vulture worth rostering even in smaller and short-bench leagues.
San Francisco
Elijah Mitchell (19 carries, 104 yards, TD)
Raheem Mostert (two carries, 20 yards)
JaMycal Hasty (one carry, three yards, one target)
Trey Sermon DNP
Aw man, do we have to talk about it every time Kyle Shanahan pantses the entire Roto Industrial Complex? Mostert left with a knee injury and Sermon was a surprise inactive, leading Elijah Mitchell directly into the eye of the Detroit Lions. As of this typing we don’t have a lot of actual substance on Mostert’s injury beyond the fact that it’s not an ACL tear, but you know how things are with San Francisco backs under Shanahan at this point, right? Shanahan is very good at creating lanes for backs, and you have to seriously consider any running back who gets a big snap share with him. Mostert’s injury may very well open up some snap share for Sermon, but Mitchell has to be a priority waiver wire target this week given how much of the work he got. It may be one of those purchases you regret on Tuesday if the 49ers get great news on Mostert, but it has to be done either way.
Quick notes: Some poor backs were squeezed entirely out of the game plans and one of those was Marlon Mack, who wound up with no carries due to Indianapolis spending the entire game trailing, often by 10 or more points. The fact that he didn’t register in the game plan at all is probably a warning sign to bail in smaller leagues ... Speaking of that game, Rashaad Penny‘s injury (his formal name for roto purposes) locked in Chris Carson as almost an every-down back. ... James White only received four carries, but remained a big part of the passing game with seven targets. As always, White is a sneaky PPR play.
