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Week 7 Fantasy Usage Model: Gronk Emerged

Rob Gronkowski

Rob Gronkowski

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

“The Fantasy Usage Model” simply is how many PPR fantasy points an average NFL player in an average NFL offense would’ve scored with the same exact opportunity. Read Targets Aren’t Created Equal and Carries Aren’t Created Equal if you want to see the type of variables that go into this model, but think air yards, relation to the sideline, yards from the end zone, and scheme indicator metrics. It’s a “Buy Low Model” (shoutout to the great Josh Hermsmeyer). To make things better, I manually clean the data each week with things I can adjust for that a computer wouldn’t know about (i.e. removing early-injury games) because the data is only as good as the context that comes with it. If you scroll down, you’ll see raw air yards, team share data, and RB touches while leading/trailing. This is basically all of the data I use to make my sit/start decisions. If you have questions, reach out to me on Twitter (@HaydenWinks). [[ad:athena]]


Top 5 Rebound Candidates of Week 7

1. Tyler Boyd (vs. CLE)

2. Cooper Kupp (vs. CHI)

3. Chris Godwin (@ LV)

4. Jerry Jeudy (vs. KC)

5. T.J. Hockenson (@ ATL)


Fantasy Usage Model - WRs

Average fantasy usage and PPR data from Weeks 3-6. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player Fantasy Usage PPR Per Game Context
Allen Robinson WR1 (20.0) WR9 (20.2) 12 targets P/G (1st) in last 4 weeks.
Julio Jones WR2 (19.4) WR1 (33.7) Removed Wks 2-5. Balled in Wk 6.
Amari Cooper WR3 (18.3) WR13 (18.5) WR1 usage with Andy but volatile now.
Keenan Allen WR4 (18.1) WR12 (19.1) WR1 usage when back is healthy.
Jamison Crowder WR5 (17.4) WR15 (18.3) 11 targets, 33% share in last 4 weeks.
D.J. Chark WR6 (17.2) WR27 (15.2) 113 air yards P/G (5th) in last 4 weeks.
Terry McLaurin WR7 (16.9) WR34 (13.6) 10.3 targets P/G in last 4. Volatile WR2.
DK Metcalf WR8 (16.6) WR7 (21.0) Air yards leader in last 4 weeks. WR1.
Emmanuel Sanders WR9 (16.6) WR14 (18.4) Emerged, but MT back. No-floor WR4.
Adam Thielen WR10 (16.3) WR8 (20.5) 31% target share in last 4. WR1/2.
Stefon Diggs WR11 (15.9) WR17 (17.4) Talent + 9.3 targets P/G = WR1/2.
Calvin Ridley WR12 (15.6) WR32 (14.3) Top-5 WR days over? Still a WR1/2.
Travis Fulgham WR13 (15.5) WR6 (21.5) ‘X WR’ for PHI. WR2/3 if no DJ, AJ, JR.
A.J. Brown WR14 (15.3) WR4 (21.9) Odd games led to WR1/2 usage. WR2.
CeeDee Lamb WR15 (15.2) WR16 (17.7) At least 10.3 xFPs in all. WR2 from slot.
Tyler Boyd WR16 (14.7) WR28 (15.0) 21% target share on pass-heavy team.
Breshad Perriman WR17 (14.5) WR58 (10.2) Removed Wks 2-5. WR2 usage Wk 6.
Tee Higgins WR18 (14.5) WR23 (15.7) 112 air yards P/G (7th) in last 4 weeks.
DeAndre Hopkins WR19 (14.4) WR18 (17.3) xFPs P/G: pre-ankle (19.8), post (12.4).
Robby Anderson WR20 (14.3) WR29 (14.9) Last 4 wks targets: RA (8.5), DJM (6.5).
Davante Adams WR21 (14.3) WR42 (12.1) 32.1 & 14.3 xFPs in two healthy games.
Will Fuller WR22 (14.2) WR11 (19.6) 113 air yards P/G (6th) in last 4 weeks.
Cooper Kupp WR23 (13.9) WR30 (14.9) WR2/3 usage. Career-low 8.3 YPT.
Chase Claypool WR24 (13.8) WR5 (21.7) Best PIT WR on WR2/3 usage. DJ back?
Sammy Watkins WR25 (13.7) WR54 (10.8) Removed Wks 5-6. Sammy > Mecole.
Kenny Golladay WR26 (13.7) WR21 (16.1) WR2/3 usage in up-and-down offense.
Tyler Lockett WR27 (13.7) WR20 (17.1) 23% target share in last 4. Upside WR2.
Odell Beckham WR28 (13.6) WR22 (15.9) Inconsistent but strong WR3 usage.
Marquise Brown WR29 (13.4) WR49 (11.4) Boom-bust WR3. 3rd in air yards last 4.
Darius Slayton WR30 (13.2) WR41 (12.2) WR3 usage, but Shepard back? Sell.
Mike Williams WR31 (12.9) WR2 (26.4) 18.1 aDOT. Herbert can throw deep.
Chris Godwin WR32 (12.6) WR35 (13.6) Week 6 targets: CG (8), ME (2). WR2.
Robert Woods WR33 (12.4) WR24 (15.6) WR3 usage on 24% target share.
Brandin Cooks WR34 (12.0) WR31 (14.3) WR3 usage in last 4 after slow start.
Justin Jefferson WR35 (11.9) WR3 (21.9) Baller (14.9 YPT) on WR3 usage.
Adam Humphries WR36 (11.9) WR37 (13.3) WR4 usage but now Davis returns.
Brandon Aiyuk WR37 (11.6) WR39 (12.8) 9.8 & 7.0 xFPs with Deebo back. WR5.
A.J. Green WR38 (11.4) WR65 (9.2) Iffy WR on WR3/4 usage. 14% targets.
Mike Evans WR39 (11.4) WR33 (14.1) Playing injured. Fewer targets. WR2/3.
Tim Patrick WR40 (11.3) WR19 (17.2) 16.5 aDOT. Deep-threat WR5. Fant?
Laviska Shenault WR41 (11.3) WR56 (10.4) WR4 usage in gadget role. Bench hold.
Deebo Samuel WR42 (11.2) WR51 (11.1) 12.5 & 10.0 xFPs in two healthy games.
Greg Ward WR43 (11.1) WR50 (11.2) Forgettable low-aDOT (5.5) slot. WR5.
Keelan Cole WR44 (11.0) WR44 (12.0) Outlier 184 air yards in Week 6. WR5.
Jerry Jeudy WR45 (10.9) WR59 (9.9) 17% target share in last 4. Slot WR4.
D.J. Moore WR46 (10.8) WR40 (12.8) Team-high 12.6 aDOT as a WR3.
Michael Gallup WR47 (10.8) WR47 (11.6) 12% target share in last 4. Big-play WR4.
Cole Beasley WR48 (10.6) WR36 (13.5) WR4/5 usage. Low-aDOT (8.0) WR.
DeVante Parker WR49 (10.4) WR38 (13.1) 20% target share in last 4. Upside WR3.
Tyreek Hill WR50 (10.2) WR26 (15.4) Defenses playing differently vs. KC.
Zach Pascal WR51 (10.2) WR73 (8.3) 5.3 high value targets P/G in last 4.
Hunter Renfrow WR52 (10.1) WR43 (12.1) Likely No. 3 target with Ruggs back.
Julian Edelman WR53 (10.0) WR104 (4.5) 14.0 xFPs P/G with Cam but unhealthy.
Jeff Smith WR54 (9.9) WR90 (5.6) Had 6.3 xFPs with Perriman back.
James Washington WR55 (9.8) WR57 (10.3) Goes to bench when Diontae returns.
Curtis Samuel WR56 (9.6) WR60 (9.5) 13% target share as a gadget project.
Jarvis Landry WR57 (9.6) WR62 (9.3) Clearly injured. 22% targets on run team.
T.Y. Hilton WR58 (9.4) WR77 (7.3) Only 11% of targets are 20+ air yards.
Cedrick Wilson WR59 (9.4) WR52 (10.8) Targets P/G in last 4: MG (6), CW (5).
Christian Kirk WR60 (9.1) WR25 (15.4) Deep-threat WR4 on 15% target share.
Darnell Mooney WR61 (8.9) WR86 (6.0) Plays like a rookie on WR6 usage.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR62 (8.9) WR93 (5.4) 18.7 aDOT means boom-bust. WR6.
Corey Davis WR63 (8.8) WR45 (11.9) WR5 usage but now AJB is healthy.
N’Keal Harry WR64 (8.6) WR89 (5.6) 11% target share. Slow feet don’t eat.
Randall Cobb WR65 (8.6) WR46 (11.6) 6.9 aDOT as slot receiver. WR6.
Damiere Byrd WR66 (8.4) WR70 (8.5) Cam’s deep threat on WR6 usage.
Olamide Zaccheaus WR67 (8.3) WR80 (6.8) Benched with Julio healthy.
KJ Hamler WR68 (8.0) WR88 (5.8) Removed Weeks 3-6. Big-play WR6.
Josh Reynolds WR69 (7.9) WR68 (8.7) Rams’ deep threat (13.1 aDOT). WR6.
Tre’Quan Smith WR70 (7.9) WR53 (10.8) 12% target share in last 4 w/o MT.
Kendrick Bourne WR71 (7.7) WR71 (8.5)
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR72 (7.5) WR76 (7.9) PIT rushing more + career-low aDOT.
Chris Conley WR73 (7.4) WR87 (5.8)
Anthony Miller WR74 (7.4) WR64 (9.2) Usage still trending down. Droppable.
Russell Gage WR75 (7.3) WR85 (6.0) PPR WR6. Needs wacky game script.
Isaiah Wright WR76 (7.3) WR91 (5.5)
John Brown WR77 (7.3) WR110 (4.1) Sub-10.0 xFPs in 3 unhealthy games.
Golden Tate WR78 (7.1) WR81 (6.7) 14% target share without Shepard.
Marcus Johnson WR79 (6.9) WR63 (9.3) Team-high 148 air yards Week 6. WR5.
Gabriel Davis WR80 (6.8) WR69 (8.6) Brown backup & No. 4 WR in BUF.
Dontrelle Inman WR81 (6.8) WR66 (9.0)
Preston Williams WR82 (6.8) WR55 (10.4) 15.0 aDOT as low-volume deep threat.
Larry Fitzgerald WR83 (6.7) WR111 (4.0) Laughable 5.6 aDOT in slot. Just bad.
John Hightower WR84 (6.6) WR106 (4.5)
Tyler Johnson WR85 (6.3) WR67 (8.9)
Isaiah Ford WR86 (6.1) WR109 (4.1) 8.1 aDOT as slot man. Off radar.
DeSean Jackson WR87 (5.9) WR117 (3.1)
Chris Hogan WR88 (5.8) WR120 (2.8)
Lawrence Cager WR89 (5.8) WR122 (2.8)
Scotty Miller WR90 (5.7) WR74 (8.1)
Marvin Jones WR91 (5.6) WR108 (4.3) Air yards in last 4: Jones (39), Hall (44).
Andy Isabella WR92 (5.5) WR78 (6.9) 16.7 aDOT as situational deep target.
Nelson Agholor WR93 (5.5) WR48 (11.4)
Mecole Hardman WR94 (5.5) WR61 (9.5) Not a true NFL WR yet. Gadget only.
Marquez Callaway WR95 (5.4) WR99 (5.0)
Kalif Raymond WR96 (5.3) WR72 (8.4)
Collin Johnson WR97 (5.2) WR107 (4.4)
Zay Jones WR98 (5.2) WR101 (4.9)
Danny Amendola WR99 (5.1) WR95 (5.2)
Braxton Berrios WR100 (5.1) WR97 (5.1)

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Fantasy Usage Model - TEs

Average fantasy usage and PPR data from Weeks 3-6. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player Fantasy Usage PPR Per Game Context
George Kittle TE1 (18.1) TE1 (24.1) Value as a top-10 fantasy asset.
Travis Kelce TE2 (14.7) TE3 (18.3) Value as a top-10 fantasy asset.
Darren Waller TE3 (14.7) TE6 (12.2) 22% target share. Faced tough sched.
Jonnu Smith TE4 (14.0) TE4 (16.1) Removed Wk 6. TE1 usage if healthy.
Jimmy Graham TE5 (13.1) TE5 (13.0) 1.7 red zone targets P/G means TE1/2.
Zach Ertz TE6 (13.1) TE26 (7.0) Injured reserve. Pick up Goedert.
T.J. Hockenson TE7 (12.8) TE15 (9.3) 5.3 targets P/G in last 4 are 2nd in DET.
Noah Fant TE8 (12.5) TE16 (9.1) Elite prospect + TE1 usage if healthy.
Rob Gronkowski TE9 (11.6) TE9 (10.4) TE1/2 usage since no OJH. Still slow.
Mark Andrews TE10 (11.0) TE7 (11.9) Last 4 target share: MB 28%, MA 22%.
Austin Hooper TE11 (10.9) TE10 (10.2) Tied with Odell for targets in last 4.
Trey Burton TE12 (10.1) TE8 (11.3) TE1 usage without MAC. TE1/2 option.
Eric Ebron TE13 (9.6) TE13 (9.5) TE1/2 usage as PIT red zone option.
Robert Tonyan TE14 (9.2) TE2 (18.4) TD threat, but TE2 usage with Adams.
Hunter Henry TE15 (9.2) TE14 (9.4) TE1/2 usage with Herbert. 18% targets.
Greg Olsen TE16 (8.9) TE21 (7.5) Old but TE2 usage in elite offense.
Dalton Schultz TE17 (8.9) TE17 (8.8) Doubt Andy supports the No. 5 target.
Anthony Firkser TE18 (8.8) TE11 (10.1) Season-high usage w/o Jonnu leaving.
Evan Engram TE19 (8.5) TE23 (7.3) 5.0 targets P/G in last 4. NYG wasting.
Hayden Hurst TE20 (8.1) TE18 (8.7) Top-5 in routes but 13% target share.
Logan Thomas TE21 (7.9) TE31 (5.9) TE2 usage on top-3 TE routes. Iffy TE2.
Tyler Eifert TE22 (7.5) TE57 (3.0) Doing nothing with TE2/3 usage.
Mike Gesicki TE23 (7.4) TE27 (6.6) TE2 usage recently. Upside TE1/2 still.
Jesse James TE24 (6.0) TE33 (5.7)
Jared Cook TE25 (6.0) TE19 (8.7) Removed Week 4. Needs TDs. MT back.
Darren Fells TE26 (5.9) TE12 (9.6) xFPs P/G: With Akins (8.1), w/out (4.4).
Dawson Knox TE27 (5.5) TE56 (3.1) 4.0 to 7.0 xFPs in healthy games. TE3.
Tyler Kroft TE28 (5.5) TE36 (5.6) Knox backup as forgettable TE3.
Irv Smith TE29 (5.3) TE38 (5.0) xFPs: Weeks 1-4 (2.5), Wks 5-6 (9.4).
Mo Alie-Cox TE30 (5.2) TE22 (7.4)
Kyle Rudolph TE31 (5.1) TE32 (5.9) Week 6 routes: KR (26), Irv (34).
Drew Sample TE32 (4.7) TE52 (3.3)
Gerald Everett TE33 (4.7) TE20 (8.1) Week 6 routes: GE (18), Higbee (18).
Tyler Higbee TE34 (4.6) TE34 (5.7) TE3 usage while LAR goes run-heavy.
Jordan Akins TE35 (4.5) TE29 (6.2)

Removed Weeks 5-6. “Starter” in HOU.


Fantasy Usage Model - RBs

Average fantasy usage and PPR data from Weeks 3-6. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player Fantasy Usage PPR Per Game Context
Mike Davis RB1 (24.5) RB4 (22.2) Bellcow in all game scripts. Strong RB1.
Alvin Kamara RB2 (23.0) RB2 (28.5) The No. 1 overall fantasy asset.
Ezekiel Elliott RB3 (22.7) RB6 (19.5) Fumbles, OL are problems. Still top-4.
Derrick Henry RB4 (22.5) RB1 (28.9) Boom-bust RB1. Not playing 3rd downs.
Joe Mixon RB5 (21.6) RB5 (20.0) Passing down usage still up. Top-8 RB.
Myles Gaskin RB6 (21.1) RB17 (15.1) RB1 usage. Howard not even playing.
Ronald Jones RB7 (20.4) RB11 (17.4) All 25 touches on 1st/2nd down. RB2.
Aaron Jones RB8 (19.6) RB10 (17.6) Mid-range RB1 with Adams back.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB9 (19.2) RB15 (15.6) RB1 usage before Bell. RB2 with?
Dalvin Cook RB10 (18.5) RB3 (25.5) Due back Week 8 after the bye.
David Montgomery RB11 (18.5) RB28 (12.2) xFPs: With Cohen (11.4), without (18.5).
James Conner RB12 (17.3) RB7 (19.1) RB1 usage as PIT bellcow.
David Johnson RB13 (16.9) RB26 (12.5) More Wk 6 routes (32) than expected.
Josh Jacobs RB14 (16.7) RB19 (14.7) Touch share: Trailing (21%), leading (50%).
Melvin Gordon RB15 (16.6) RB13 (16.8) RB2 usage, but Lindsay is back. RB3.
Chris Carson RB16 (16.5) RB8 (18.5) RB1/2 usage on career-high receiving.
James Robinson RB17 (16.1) RB9 (18.2) Touch share: Trailing (24%), leading (40%).
Darrell Henderson RB18 (16.0) RB23 (13.6) All 14 touches on 1st/2nd down. RB2/3.
Todd Gurley RB19 (15.3) RB12 (17.3) RB2 usage. ATL offense improving.
James White RB20 (15.2) RB21 (14.1) Handled all 3rd-down RB touches. RB3.
Kareem Hunt RB21 (15.1) RB18 (14.9) 3-down RB. Tough Week 6 matchup.
Miles Sanders RB22 (15.0) RB14 (16.6) 19.2 xFPs P/G in last 4 healthy games.
Devonta Freeman RB23 (15.0) RB31 (11.4) 20 Week 6 touches as bellcow. RB2/3.
Kenyan Drake RB24 (14.9) RB24 (13.5) Big Week 6 but only 1 target P/G. RB2.
Antonio Gibson RB25 (14.4) RB20 (14.4) All 14 touches on 1st/2nd down. RB2/3.
Phillip Lindsay RB26 (14.3) RB37 (10.1) All 23 touches on 1st/2nd down. RB3.
Devin Singletary RB27 (13.1) RB33 (11.1) RB3 who needs positive game scripts.
Rex Burkhead RB28 (13.0) RB22 (14.1) Splitting 1st/2nd-down role with Harris.
Jonathan Taylor RB29 (12.9) RB25 (13.3) Pass Situation Targets: JT (2), NH (4).
Adrian Peterson RB30 (12.5) RB36 (10.6) Doubt AP holds RB3 value with Swift.
Jerick McKinnon RB31 (12.0) RB30 (11.7) 16.2 & 18.0 xFPs without Mostert. RB2.
Raheem Mostert RB32 (11.9) RB27 (12.3) Sadly placed on injured reserve.
J.D. McKissic RB33 (11.5) RB32 (11.3) Pass Situation Targets: JM (5), AG (1).
D’Andre Swift RB34 (11.3) RB16 (15.1) Pass-down RB w bellcow upside. RB2/3.
Nyheim Hines RB35 (11.1) RB45 (7.3) Even passing splits with JT. PPR RB3.
Justin Jackson RB36 (10.2) RB38 (9.3) Started, ran more Week 5 routes. RB3.
Alexander Mattison RB37 (10.0) RB43 (7.8)
Chase Edmonds RB38 (9.9) RB34 (11.1) 4.0 targets P/G, but insurance only.
Jamaal Williams RB39 (9.9) RB41 (8.2) Season-low 3.4 xFPs with Adams back.
Frank Gore RB40 (9.3) RB48 (6.5) Please don’t.
Malcolm Brown RB41 (9.3) RB55 (5.3) Passing-down back. Slow RB4.
Latavius Murray RB42 (8.9) RB29 (12.2) High-end insurance RB only.
Le’Veon Bell RB43 (8.6) RB44 (7.7) Not signed to start. Maybe goal line?
Leonard Fournette RB44 (8.1) RB63 (4.2) Ankle injury should be improving now.
Jalen Richard RB45 (8.0) RB56 (5.3) PPR RB5 as LV passing-down back.
Brian Hill RB46 (7.9) RB42 (8.0) The insurance to Gurley.
Joshua Kelley RB47 (7.9) RB50 (6.1) No. 2 as short-yardage grinder. RB4.
Jeff Wilson RB48 (7.8) RB39 (9.2)
Jeremy McNichols RB49 (7.1) RB60 (4.6) TEN third-down RB with Evans hurt.
J.K. Dobbins RB50 (7.1) RB49 (6.1) Passing down RB. Maybe more w/o MI.
Mark Ingram RB57 (6.2) RB54 (5.4) Likely missing time with ankle injury.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn RB51 (6.6) RB52 (5.8) 100% Week 6 touches in garbage time.
Duke Johnson RB52 (6.5) RB64 (4.2) Week 6 routes: David (32), Duke (11).
Kalen Ballage RB53 (6.5) RB47 (6.7)
Benny Snell RB54 (6.5) RB66 (4.0) 86% Week 6 touches in garbage time.
Tony Pollard RB55 (6.4) RB53 (5.6)
Gus Edwards RB56 (6.3) RB59 (4.7) Pure runner. RB3 appeal if Ingram out.
Damien Harris RB58 (6.1) RB46 (7.2) Splitting 1st/2nd-down role with Rex.
Chris Thompson RB59 (5.9) RB57 (5.1)
Darrel Williams RB60 (5.8) RB35 (11.1)

The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 7

Part 1: High Value RB Touches & Game Script (Monday)

Part 2: Targets Aren’t Created Equal (Monday Night)

Part 3: Air Yards Report (Monday Night)

Part 4: Fantasy Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)

My Twitter: @HaydenWinks