“The Fantasy Usage Model” simply is how many PPR fantasy points an average NFL player in an average NFL offense would’ve scored with the same exact opportunity. Read Targets Aren’t Created Equal and Carries Aren’t Created Equal if you want to see the type of variables that go into this model, but think air yards, relation to the sideline, yards from the end zone, and scheme indicator metrics. It’s a “Buy Low Model” (shoutout to the great Josh Hermsmeyer). To make things better, I manually clean the data each week with things I can adjust for that a computer wouldn’t know about (i.e. removing early-injury games) because the data is only as good as the context that comes with it. If you scroll down, you’ll see raw air yards, team share data, and RB touches while leading/trailing. This is basically all of the data I use to make my sit/start decisions. If you have questions, reach out to me on Twitter (@HaydenWinks). [[ad:athena]]
Top 5 Rebound Candidates of Week 7
1. Tyler Boyd (vs. CLE)
2. Cooper Kupp (vs. CHI)
3. Chris Godwin (@ LV)
4. Jerry Jeudy (vs. KC)
5. T.J. Hockenson (@ ATL)
Fantasy Usage Model - WRs
Average fantasy usage and PPR data from Weeks 3-6. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.
Player | Fantasy Usage | PPR Per Game | Context |
Allen Robinson | WR1 (20.0) | WR9 (20.2) | 12 targets P/G (1st) in last 4 weeks. |
Julio Jones | WR2 (19.4) | WR1 (33.7) | Removed Wks 2-5. Balled in Wk 6. |
Amari Cooper | WR3 (18.3) | WR13 (18.5) | WR1 usage with Andy but volatile now. |
Keenan Allen | WR4 (18.1) | WR12 (19.1) | WR1 usage when back is healthy. |
Jamison Crowder | WR5 (17.4) | WR15 (18.3) | 11 targets, 33% share in last 4 weeks. |
D.J. Chark | WR6 (17.2) | WR27 (15.2) | 113 air yards P/G (5th) in last 4 weeks. |
Terry McLaurin | WR7 (16.9) | WR34 (13.6) | 10.3 targets P/G in last 4. Volatile WR2. |
DK Metcalf | WR8 (16.6) | WR7 (21.0) | Air yards leader in last 4 weeks. WR1. |
Emmanuel Sanders | WR9 (16.6) | WR14 (18.4) | Emerged, but MT back. No-floor WR4. |
Adam Thielen | WR10 (16.3) | WR8 (20.5) | 31% target share in last 4. WR1/2. |
Stefon Diggs | WR11 (15.9) | WR17 (17.4) | Talent + 9.3 targets P/G = WR1/2. |
Calvin Ridley | WR12 (15.6) | WR32 (14.3) | Top-5 WR days over? Still a WR1/2. |
Travis Fulgham | WR13 (15.5) | WR6 (21.5) | ‘X WR’ for PHI. WR2/3 if no DJ, AJ, JR. |
A.J. Brown | WR14 (15.3) | WR4 (21.9) | Odd games led to WR1/2 usage. WR2. |
CeeDee Lamb | WR15 (15.2) | WR16 (17.7) | At least 10.3 xFPs in all. WR2 from slot. |
Tyler Boyd | WR16 (14.7) | WR28 (15.0) | 21% target share on pass-heavy team. |
Breshad Perriman | WR17 (14.5) | WR58 (10.2) | Removed Wks 2-5. WR2 usage Wk 6. |
Tee Higgins | WR18 (14.5) | WR23 (15.7) | 112 air yards P/G (7th) in last 4 weeks. |
DeAndre Hopkins | WR19 (14.4) | WR18 (17.3) | xFPs P/G: pre-ankle (19.8), post (12.4). |
Robby Anderson | WR20 (14.3) | WR29 (14.9) | Last 4 wks targets: RA (8.5), DJM (6.5). |
Davante Adams | WR21 (14.3) | WR42 (12.1) | 32.1 & 14.3 xFPs in two healthy games. |
Will Fuller | WR22 (14.2) | WR11 (19.6) | 113 air yards P/G (6th) in last 4 weeks. |
Cooper Kupp | WR23 (13.9) | WR30 (14.9) | WR2/3 usage. Career-low 8.3 YPT. |
Chase Claypool | WR24 (13.8) | WR5 (21.7) | Best PIT WR on WR2/3 usage. DJ back? |
Sammy Watkins | WR25 (13.7) | WR54 (10.8) | Removed Wks 5-6. Sammy > Mecole. |
Kenny Golladay | WR26 (13.7) | WR21 (16.1) | WR2/3 usage in up-and-down offense. |
Tyler Lockett | WR27 (13.7) | WR20 (17.1) | 23% target share in last 4. Upside WR2. |
Odell Beckham | WR28 (13.6) | WR22 (15.9) | Inconsistent but strong WR3 usage. |
Marquise Brown | WR29 (13.4) | WR49 (11.4) | Boom-bust WR3. 3rd in air yards last 4. |
Darius Slayton | WR30 (13.2) | WR41 (12.2) | WR3 usage, but Shepard back? Sell. |
Mike Williams | WR31 (12.9) | WR2 (26.4) | 18.1 aDOT. Herbert can throw deep. |
Chris Godwin | WR32 (12.6) | WR35 (13.6) | Week 6 targets: CG (8), ME (2). WR2. |
Robert Woods | WR33 (12.4) | WR24 (15.6) | WR3 usage on 24% target share. |
Brandin Cooks | WR34 (12.0) | WR31 (14.3) | WR3 usage in last 4 after slow start. |
Justin Jefferson | WR35 (11.9) | WR3 (21.9) | Baller (14.9 YPT) on WR3 usage. |
Adam Humphries | WR36 (11.9) | WR37 (13.3) | WR4 usage but now Davis returns. |
Brandon Aiyuk | WR37 (11.6) | WR39 (12.8) | 9.8 & 7.0 xFPs with Deebo back. WR5. |
A.J. Green | WR38 (11.4) | WR65 (9.2) | Iffy WR on WR3/4 usage. 14% targets. |
Mike Evans | WR39 (11.4) | WR33 (14.1) | Playing injured. Fewer targets. WR2/3. |
Tim Patrick | WR40 (11.3) | WR19 (17.2) | 16.5 aDOT. Deep-threat WR5. Fant? |
Laviska Shenault | WR41 (11.3) | WR56 (10.4) | WR4 usage in gadget role. Bench hold. |
Deebo Samuel | WR42 (11.2) | WR51 (11.1) | 12.5 & 10.0 xFPs in two healthy games. |
Greg Ward | WR43 (11.1) | WR50 (11.2) | Forgettable low-aDOT (5.5) slot. WR5. |
Keelan Cole | WR44 (11.0) | WR44 (12.0) | Outlier 184 air yards in Week 6. WR5. |
Jerry Jeudy | WR45 (10.9) | WR59 (9.9) | 17% target share in last 4. Slot WR4. |
D.J. Moore | WR46 (10.8) | WR40 (12.8) | Team-high 12.6 aDOT as a WR3. |
Michael Gallup | WR47 (10.8) | WR47 (11.6) | 12% target share in last 4. Big-play WR4. |
Cole Beasley | WR48 (10.6) | WR36 (13.5) | WR4/5 usage. Low-aDOT (8.0) WR. |
DeVante Parker | WR49 (10.4) | WR38 (13.1) | 20% target share in last 4. Upside WR3. |
Tyreek Hill | WR50 (10.2) | WR26 (15.4) | Defenses playing differently vs. KC. |
Zach Pascal | WR51 (10.2) | WR73 (8.3) | 5.3 high value targets P/G in last 4. |
Hunter Renfrow | WR52 (10.1) | WR43 (12.1) | Likely No. 3 target with Ruggs back. |
Julian Edelman | WR53 (10.0) | WR104 (4.5) | 14.0 xFPs P/G with Cam but unhealthy. |
Jeff Smith | WR54 (9.9) | WR90 (5.6) | Had 6.3 xFPs with Perriman back. |
James Washington | WR55 (9.8) | WR57 (10.3) | Goes to bench when Diontae returns. |
Curtis Samuel | WR56 (9.6) | WR60 (9.5) | 13% target share as a gadget project. |
Jarvis Landry | WR57 (9.6) | WR62 (9.3) | Clearly injured. 22% targets on run team. |
T.Y. Hilton | WR58 (9.4) | WR77 (7.3) | Only 11% of targets are 20+ air yards. |
Cedrick Wilson | WR59 (9.4) | WR52 (10.8) | Targets P/G in last 4: MG (6), CW (5). |
Christian Kirk | WR60 (9.1) | WR25 (15.4) | Deep-threat WR4 on 15% target share. |
Darnell Mooney | WR61 (8.9) | WR86 (6.0) | Plays like a rookie on WR6 usage. |
Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR62 (8.9) | WR93 (5.4) | 18.7 aDOT means boom-bust. WR6. |
Corey Davis | WR63 (8.8) | WR45 (11.9) | WR5 usage but now AJB is healthy. |
N’Keal Harry | WR64 (8.6) | WR89 (5.6) | 11% target share. Slow feet don’t eat. |
Randall Cobb | WR65 (8.6) | WR46 (11.6) | 6.9 aDOT as slot receiver. WR6. |
Damiere Byrd | WR66 (8.4) | WR70 (8.5) | Cam’s deep threat on WR6 usage. |
Olamide Zaccheaus | WR67 (8.3) | WR80 (6.8) | Benched with Julio healthy. |
KJ Hamler | WR68 (8.0) | WR88 (5.8) | Removed Weeks 3-6. Big-play WR6. |
Josh Reynolds | WR69 (7.9) | WR68 (8.7) | Rams’ deep threat (13.1 aDOT). WR6. |
Tre’Quan Smith | WR70 (7.9) | WR53 (10.8) | 12% target share in last 4 w/o MT. |
Kendrick Bourne | WR71 (7.7) | WR71 (8.5) | |
JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR72 (7.5) | WR76 (7.9) | PIT rushing more + career-low aDOT. |
Chris Conley | WR73 (7.4) | WR87 (5.8) | |
Anthony Miller | WR74 (7.4) | WR64 (9.2) | Usage still trending down. Droppable. |
Russell Gage | WR75 (7.3) | WR85 (6.0) | PPR WR6. Needs wacky game script. |
Isaiah Wright | WR76 (7.3) | WR91 (5.5) | |
John Brown | WR77 (7.3) | WR110 (4.1) | Sub-10.0 xFPs in 3 unhealthy games. |
Golden Tate | WR78 (7.1) | WR81 (6.7) | 14% target share without Shepard. |
Marcus Johnson | WR79 (6.9) | WR63 (9.3) | Team-high 148 air yards Week 6. WR5. |
Gabriel Davis | WR80 (6.8) | WR69 (8.6) | Brown backup & No. 4 WR in BUF. |
Dontrelle Inman | WR81 (6.8) | WR66 (9.0) | |
Preston Williams | WR82 (6.8) | WR55 (10.4) | 15.0 aDOT as low-volume deep threat. |
Larry Fitzgerald | WR83 (6.7) | WR111 (4.0) | Laughable 5.6 aDOT in slot. Just bad. |
John Hightower | WR84 (6.6) | WR106 (4.5) | |
Tyler Johnson | WR85 (6.3) | WR67 (8.9) | |
Isaiah Ford | WR86 (6.1) | WR109 (4.1) | 8.1 aDOT as slot man. Off radar. |
DeSean Jackson | WR87 (5.9) | WR117 (3.1) | |
Chris Hogan | WR88 (5.8) | WR120 (2.8) | |
Lawrence Cager | WR89 (5.8) | WR122 (2.8) | |
Scotty Miller | WR90 (5.7) | WR74 (8.1) | |
Marvin Jones | WR91 (5.6) | WR108 (4.3) | Air yards in last 4: Jones (39), Hall (44). |
Andy Isabella | WR92 (5.5) | WR78 (6.9) | 16.7 aDOT as situational deep target. |
Nelson Agholor | WR93 (5.5) | WR48 (11.4) | |
Mecole Hardman | WR94 (5.5) | WR61 (9.5) | Not a true NFL WR yet. Gadget only. |
Marquez Callaway | WR95 (5.4) | WR99 (5.0) | |
Kalif Raymond | WR96 (5.3) | WR72 (8.4) | |
Collin Johnson | WR97 (5.2) | WR107 (4.4) | |
Zay Jones | WR98 (5.2) | WR101 (4.9) | |
Danny Amendola | WR99 (5.1) | WR95 (5.2) | |
Braxton Berrios | WR100 (5.1) | WR97 (5.1) |
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Fantasy Usage Model - TEs
Average fantasy usage and PPR data from Weeks 3-6. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.
Player | Fantasy Usage | PPR Per Game | Context |
George Kittle | TE1 (18.1) | TE1 (24.1) | Value as a top-10 fantasy asset. |
Travis Kelce | TE2 (14.7) | TE3 (18.3) | Value as a top-10 fantasy asset. |
Darren Waller | TE3 (14.7) | TE6 (12.2) | 22% target share. Faced tough sched. |
Jonnu Smith | TE4 (14.0) | TE4 (16.1) | Removed Wk 6. TE1 usage if healthy. |
Jimmy Graham | TE5 (13.1) | TE5 (13.0) | 1.7 red zone targets P/G means TE1/2. |
Zach Ertz | TE6 (13.1) | TE26 (7.0) | Injured reserve. Pick up Goedert. |
T.J. Hockenson | TE7 (12.8) | TE15 (9.3) | 5.3 targets P/G in last 4 are 2nd in DET. |
Noah Fant | TE8 (12.5) | TE16 (9.1) | Elite prospect + TE1 usage if healthy. |
Rob Gronkowski | TE9 (11.6) | TE9 (10.4) | TE1/2 usage since no OJH. Still slow. |
Mark Andrews | TE10 (11.0) | TE7 (11.9) | Last 4 target share: MB 28%, MA 22%. |
Austin Hooper | TE11 (10.9) | TE10 (10.2) | Tied with Odell for targets in last 4. |
Trey Burton | TE12 (10.1) | TE8 (11.3) | TE1 usage without MAC. TE1/2 option. |
Eric Ebron | TE13 (9.6) | TE13 (9.5) | TE1/2 usage as PIT red zone option. |
Robert Tonyan | TE14 (9.2) | TE2 (18.4) | TD threat, but TE2 usage with Adams. |
Hunter Henry | TE15 (9.2) | TE14 (9.4) | TE1/2 usage with Herbert. 18% targets. |
Greg Olsen | TE16 (8.9) | TE21 (7.5) | Old but TE2 usage in elite offense. |
Dalton Schultz | TE17 (8.9) | TE17 (8.8) | Doubt Andy supports the No. 5 target. |
Anthony Firkser | TE18 (8.8) | TE11 (10.1) | Season-high usage w/o Jonnu leaving. |
Evan Engram | TE19 (8.5) | TE23 (7.3) | 5.0 targets P/G in last 4. NYG wasting. |
Hayden Hurst | TE20 (8.1) | TE18 (8.7) | Top-5 in routes but 13% target share. |
Logan Thomas | TE21 (7.9) | TE31 (5.9) | TE2 usage on top-3 TE routes. Iffy TE2. |
Tyler Eifert | TE22 (7.5) | TE57 (3.0) | Doing nothing with TE2/3 usage. |
Mike Gesicki | TE23 (7.4) | TE27 (6.6) | TE2 usage recently. Upside TE1/2 still. |
Jesse James | TE24 (6.0) | TE33 (5.7) | |
Jared Cook | TE25 (6.0) | TE19 (8.7) | Removed Week 4. Needs TDs. MT back. |
Darren Fells | TE26 (5.9) | TE12 (9.6) | xFPs P/G: With Akins (8.1), w/out (4.4). |
Dawson Knox | TE27 (5.5) | TE56 (3.1) | 4.0 to 7.0 xFPs in healthy games. TE3. |
Tyler Kroft | TE28 (5.5) | TE36 (5.6) | Knox backup as forgettable TE3. |
Irv Smith | TE29 (5.3) | TE38 (5.0) | xFPs: Weeks 1-4 (2.5), Wks 5-6 (9.4). |
Mo Alie-Cox | TE30 (5.2) | TE22 (7.4) | |
Kyle Rudolph | TE31 (5.1) | TE32 (5.9) | Week 6 routes: KR (26), Irv (34). |
Drew Sample | TE32 (4.7) | TE52 (3.3) | |
Gerald Everett | TE33 (4.7) | TE20 (8.1) | Week 6 routes: GE (18), Higbee (18). |
Tyler Higbee | TE34 (4.6) | TE34 (5.7) | TE3 usage while LAR goes run-heavy. |
Jordan Akins | TE35 (4.5) | TE29 (6.2) | Removed Weeks 5-6. “Starter” in HOU. |
Fantasy Usage Model - RBs
Average fantasy usage and PPR data from Weeks 3-6. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.
Player | Fantasy Usage | PPR Per Game | Context |
Mike Davis | RB1 (24.5) | RB4 (22.2) | Bellcow in all game scripts. Strong RB1. |
Alvin Kamara | RB2 (23.0) | RB2 (28.5) | The No. 1 overall fantasy asset. |
Ezekiel Elliott | RB3 (22.7) | RB6 (19.5) | Fumbles, OL are problems. Still top-4. |
Derrick Henry | RB4 (22.5) | RB1 (28.9) | Boom-bust RB1. Not playing 3rd downs. |
Joe Mixon | RB5 (21.6) | RB5 (20.0) | Passing down usage still up. Top-8 RB. |
Myles Gaskin | RB6 (21.1) | RB17 (15.1) | RB1 usage. Howard not even playing. |
Ronald Jones | RB7 (20.4) | RB11 (17.4) | All 25 touches on 1st/2nd down. RB2. |
Aaron Jones | RB8 (19.6) | RB10 (17.6) | Mid-range RB1 with Adams back. |
Clyde Edwards-Helaire | RB9 (19.2) | RB15 (15.6) | RB1 usage before Bell. RB2 with? |
Dalvin Cook | RB10 (18.5) | RB3 (25.5) | Due back Week 8 after the bye. |
David Montgomery | RB11 (18.5) | RB28 (12.2) | xFPs: With Cohen (11.4), without (18.5). |
James Conner | RB12 (17.3) | RB7 (19.1) | RB1 usage as PIT bellcow. |
David Johnson | RB13 (16.9) | RB26 (12.5) | More Wk 6 routes (32) than expected. |
Josh Jacobs | RB14 (16.7) | RB19 (14.7) | Touch share: Trailing (21%), leading (50%). |
Melvin Gordon | RB15 (16.6) | RB13 (16.8) | RB2 usage, but Lindsay is back. RB3. |
Chris Carson | RB16 (16.5) | RB8 (18.5) | RB1/2 usage on career-high receiving. |
James Robinson | RB17 (16.1) | RB9 (18.2) | Touch share: Trailing (24%), leading (40%). |
Darrell Henderson | RB18 (16.0) | RB23 (13.6) | All 14 touches on 1st/2nd down. RB2/3. |
Todd Gurley | RB19 (15.3) | RB12 (17.3) | RB2 usage. ATL offense improving. |
James White | RB20 (15.2) | RB21 (14.1) | Handled all 3rd-down RB touches. RB3. |
Kareem Hunt | RB21 (15.1) | RB18 (14.9) | 3-down RB. Tough Week 6 matchup. |
Miles Sanders | RB22 (15.0) | RB14 (16.6) | 19.2 xFPs P/G in last 4 healthy games. |
Devonta Freeman | RB23 (15.0) | RB31 (11.4) | 20 Week 6 touches as bellcow. RB2/3. |
Kenyan Drake | RB24 (14.9) | RB24 (13.5) | Big Week 6 but only 1 target P/G. RB2. |
Antonio Gibson | RB25 (14.4) | RB20 (14.4) | All 14 touches on 1st/2nd down. RB2/3. |
Phillip Lindsay | RB26 (14.3) | RB37 (10.1) | All 23 touches on 1st/2nd down. RB3. |
Devin Singletary | RB27 (13.1) | RB33 (11.1) | RB3 who needs positive game scripts. |
Rex Burkhead | RB28 (13.0) | RB22 (14.1) | Splitting 1st/2nd-down role with Harris. |
Jonathan Taylor | RB29 (12.9) | RB25 (13.3) | Pass Situation Targets: JT (2), NH (4). |
Adrian Peterson | RB30 (12.5) | RB36 (10.6) | Doubt AP holds RB3 value with Swift. |
Jerick McKinnon | RB31 (12.0) | RB30 (11.7) | 16.2 & 18.0 xFPs without Mostert. RB2. |
Raheem Mostert | RB32 (11.9) | RB27 (12.3) | Sadly placed on injured reserve. |
J.D. McKissic | RB33 (11.5) | RB32 (11.3) | Pass Situation Targets: JM (5), AG (1). |
D’Andre Swift | RB34 (11.3) | RB16 (15.1) | Pass-down RB w bellcow upside. RB2/3. |
Nyheim Hines | RB35 (11.1) | RB45 (7.3) | Even passing splits with JT. PPR RB3. |
Justin Jackson | RB36 (10.2) | RB38 (9.3) | Started, ran more Week 5 routes. RB3. |
Alexander Mattison | RB37 (10.0) | RB43 (7.8) | |
Chase Edmonds | RB38 (9.9) | RB34 (11.1) | 4.0 targets P/G, but insurance only. |
Jamaal Williams | RB39 (9.9) | RB41 (8.2) | Season-low 3.4 xFPs with Adams back. |
Frank Gore | RB40 (9.3) | RB48 (6.5) | Please don’t. |
Malcolm Brown | RB41 (9.3) | RB55 (5.3) | Passing-down back. Slow RB4. |
Latavius Murray | RB42 (8.9) | RB29 (12.2) | High-end insurance RB only. |
Le’Veon Bell | RB43 (8.6) | RB44 (7.7) | Not signed to start. Maybe goal line? |
Leonard Fournette | RB44 (8.1) | RB63 (4.2) | Ankle injury should be improving now. |
Jalen Richard | RB45 (8.0) | RB56 (5.3) | PPR RB5 as LV passing-down back. |
Brian Hill | RB46 (7.9) | RB42 (8.0) | The insurance to Gurley. |
Joshua Kelley | RB47 (7.9) | RB50 (6.1) | No. 2 as short-yardage grinder. RB4. |
Jeff Wilson | RB48 (7.8) | RB39 (9.2) | |
Jeremy McNichols | RB49 (7.1) | RB60 (4.6) | TEN third-down RB with Evans hurt. |
J.K. Dobbins | RB50 (7.1) | RB49 (6.1) | Passing down RB. Maybe more w/o MI. |
Mark Ingram | RB57 (6.2) | RB54 (5.4) | Likely missing time with ankle injury. |
Ke’Shawn Vaughn | RB51 (6.6) | RB52 (5.8) | 100% Week 6 touches in garbage time. |
Duke Johnson | RB52 (6.5) | RB64 (4.2) | Week 6 routes: David (32), Duke (11). |
Kalen Ballage | RB53 (6.5) | RB47 (6.7) | |
Benny Snell | RB54 (6.5) | RB66 (4.0) | 86% Week 6 touches in garbage time. |
Tony Pollard | RB55 (6.4) | RB53 (5.6) | |
Gus Edwards | RB56 (6.3) | RB59 (4.7) | Pure runner. RB3 appeal if Ingram out. |
Damien Harris | RB58 (6.1) | RB46 (7.2) | Splitting 1st/2nd-down role with Rex. |
Chris Thompson | RB59 (5.9) | RB57 (5.1) | |
Darrel Williams | RB60 (5.8) | RB35 (11.1) |
The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 7
Part 1: High Value RB Touches & Game Script (Monday)
Part 2: Targets Aren’t Created Equal (Monday Night)
Part 3: Air Yards Report (Monday Night)
Part 4: Fantasy Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)
My Twitter: @HaydenWinks