Welcome to the Fantasy Football Forecast! My goal with this weekly column is to get you actionable information as quickly as possible, regardless if you’re playing season-long fantasy, DFS, or are grinding player props. If you’re just looking for fantasy football rankings and only have 10 minutes to skim through for your sit/start decisions, then head over to the “Forecast” sections below where I project each player’s PPR finish based on a 12-team league. But if you want to get your research on, then I have full player breakdowns.
This week, I’m debuting a new chart; it’s the first one you’ll see below. The bar chart shows how good/bad an offense is against the opposing defense. The taller the bar, the better the offensive or defensive unit. For example, let’s look at “Run Efficiency” in the Packers Offense vs. Eagles Defense chart. The Packers Offense is average (51st percentile) in run efficiency and the Eagles Defense is really strong (90th percentile) in run efficiency. So to find positive matchups for an offense, look for a tall offensive bar and a short defensive bar. It’s that simple. ... As for the labels: “FPPG” stands for fantasy points per game. “Pass Efficiency” and “Run Efficiency” are based on Football Outsiders’ DVOA. “20+ Yard Passes” are 20+ yard passes. “Sack Rate” is Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate. ... As always, hit me up on Twitter @HaydenWinks if you have questions.
Packers (25 implied points, -4 point spread) vs. PHI
Forecast: Aaron Rodgers QB1/2, Davante Adams WR1, Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR3, Geronimo Allison WR5, Jimmy Graham TE2, Aaron Jones RB3, Jamaal Williams RB3/4
The Eagles’ defense has been really good against the run, but really bad against the pass. That’s not optimal. But it’s great news for Aaron Rodgers, who has not played like a fantasy QB1 over the last 16 games. Rodgers doesn’t have a three passing touchdown performance in 14 games, but the matchup is too good to keep him outside of the top-12.
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Week 3 | A. Jones | J. Williams |
Carries | 10 | 12 |
Targets | 1 | 2 |
Routes Run | 9 | 18 |
Aaron Jones was in a full-blown timeshare last week. In fact, he was less involved than Jamaal Williams. Against a pass funneling defense (see chart above) and with touch totals being completely up in the air with coach Matt LaFleur evening up usage (see table above), Jones is merely a flex option, while Williams is a bench hold.
Davante Adams is on a 112-target pace after seeing 169 targets last year. The difference? An improved Packers’ defense and a new offensive coaching staff that wants to run the ball more. Adams is still going to be the go-to target when the Packers need a play, and this week’s matchup against the Eagles’ secondary that’s been absolutely exposed by opposing WR1s is a “get right” spot for Adams. He’s a WR1 here. … Marquez Valdes-Scantling has WR3 usage (see above chart) and the Eagles are in the bottom 10% in WR fantasy points allowed. He’s a strong WR3 option with the Eagles flying into Green Bay on a short week. … Geronimo Allison is an afterthought in the offense, but it’s a good matchup so he’s still in play as a WR5. … Jimmy Graham had a big Week 1, but I believe Weeks 2 and 3 are closer to what we can expect moving forward. Graham is a touchdown-dependent TE2.
Eagles (21, +4) @ GB
Forecast: Carson Wentz QB1/2, Miles Sanders RB3, Jordan Howard RB3/4, Alshon Jeffery WR4, Nelson Agholor WR4, Zach Ertz TE1
The Eagles’ offense has their hands full against this Packers’ pass rush and secondary. Carson Wentz’s individual matchup will be among the worst of the season, but he’s too talented to drop outside of the top-15, especially with Alshon Jeffery off the injury report. Wentz is on the QB1/2 borderline with the potential for him to use his legs more than usual against a sticky Packers’ secondary.
Week 3 | M. Sanders | J. Howard | D. Sproles |
Carries | 13 | 11 | 2 |
Targets | 4 | 1 | 1 |
Routes Run | 12 | 9 | 24 |
The Packers are basically daring opposing offenses to run the ball, so Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard have the best individual matchups on the Eagles this week (look at the Packers’ low “RB FPPG” percentile). Even with Sanders being one of the worst running backs in the NFL so far, he’s still seeing more usage than Howard (see table above) and that’s what really matters in fantasy. Sanders is an RB3, while Howard floats as an RB4.
Receptions to RBs Allowed:
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) September 23, 2019
Packers 26
Texans 24 (vs. CMC next week)
Steelers 22
Jets 22
Cowboys 20
Eagles 18
10 or below:
Dolphins 10
Giants 10
Panthers 10
Chargers 10
Bucs 9
Broncos 8 pic.twitter.com/Oq8mZPSwA5
With Alshon Jeffery off the injury report, JJ Arcega-Whiteside will head back to the bench and Nelson Agholor and Mack Hollins’ targets will head back down to earth. Jeffery will be locked up against PPF’s No. 1 coverage corner in Jaire Alexander, and it’s usually best to temper expectations the first week back from an injury. Jeffery is closer to a WR4 than a WR3. … Agholor gets a better matchup in the slot against the slow-footed Tramon Williams, but he’s less likely to reach double-digit targets with a healthier lineup. … Mack Hollins still has the “DeSean Jackson role” but he’s got a tough matchup with the speedy CB Kevin King. …. Zach Ertz is a top-five talent and has top-five projected usage, so the only concern is the Packers’ No. 1 defense against tight ends through three weeks. Since there’s a small sample size and since the Packers have faced three teams without established stud TEs (CHI, MIN, DEN), I’m betting on Ertz as a top-three play.
The rest of the Week 4 Fantasy Football Forecast will be posted on Friday morning.
