Welcome to the Fantasy Football Forecast! My goal with this weekly column is to get you actionable information as quickly as possible, regardless if you’re playing season-long fantasy, DFS, or are grinding player props.
If you’re just looking for fantasy football rankings and only have 10 minutes to skim through for your sit/start decisions, then head over to the “Forecast” sections below where I project each player’s PPR finish based on a 12-team league. But if you want to get your research on, then I have full player breakdowns. As always, hit me up on Twitter @HaydenWinks if you have questions.
Panthers (28.25, -7) vs. TB
Forecast: Cam Newton QB1/2, D.J. Moore WR2/3, Curtis Samuel WR3/4, Greg Olsen TE2, Christian McCaffrey RB1
Cam Newton’s accuracy was a major problem Week 1 but concerns with his arm strength are overblown. Newton drove the football on out routes with ease and just opted for underneath routes with the Rams’ forcing Newton to try and dink-and-dunk his way towards a win. The actual concern to me was Newton’s three carries. He needs to use his legs more to have a fantasy ceiling, and the Bucs’ defense is one he can exploit with his athleticism. Newton is a more volatile QB1/2 right now.
Despite a ton of offseason hype, D.J. Moore looks to be the clear No. 1 receiver over Curtis Samuel. Moore had a 26% target share Week 1, operating within 20 yards on every target as a safety blanket for Cam when he wasn’t throwing it to CMC. Moore should see consistent volume and production in 2019, making him a solid WR2/3 in all formats. … Samuel will be more volatile than Moore week to week, but Samuel did run a route on 42-of-43 pass plays Week 1, so it’s way too early to cancel from the WR3/4 range. Expect Samuel to get more than four targets in Week 2 after a very positive offseason. … Greg Olsen (back) is on the injury report so make sure to keep track of news, but he was heavily targeted (9) in the season opener. Olsen didn’t have the same athleticism as he once did, but the target volume and air yards were good to see, even if it’s very likely to come down in Week 2. Olsen is a TE2.
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Christian McCaffrey was a complete stud Week 1. He had 128 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries and posted a 10-81-0 receiving line on a team-high 11 targets. McCaffrey’s goal is a 1,000/1,000 season and that’s actually in play. McCaffrey is an elite fantasy asset.
Bucs (21.25, +7) @ CAR
Forecast: Jameis Winston QB2, Mike Evans WR1/2, Chris Godwin WR2, Breshad Perriman WR5, O.J. Howard TE1, Peyton Barber RB3/4, Ronald Jones RB3/4, Dare Ogunbowale RB5
Jameis Winston wasn’t comfortable in the pocket and his decision-making/accuracy led to easy interceptions. Winston has had his struggles against this Panthers Defense historically, averaging just one passing touchdown across seven games. Winston is still a volatile player capable of a big week, but I’ll take my shots with Winston another week. Jameis is a QB2.
Mike Evans was shut down in the opener (2-28-0 on five targets), largely because he was still ill. The good news is he still had over 100 air yards as Winston’s go-to receiver, but Evans has been really bad against the 6-foot-1, 211-pound CB James Bradberry and the Panthers Defense recently, scoring 16.7, 11.0, 8.8, and 2.6 PPR points over his last two seasons. Evans is closer to the high-end WR2 range than the elite WR1 range just for this week. … Chris Godwin saw a team-high six targets Week 1 and was able to sneak out with a 14.3 PPR point game despite a terrible game from Winston. Godwin, as expected, was a near full-time player, lining up in the slot on 52% of his snaps. Ian Hartitz notes Godwin “possesses one of the week’s top advantages in terms of the largest differences in 40-yard dash times among projected Week 2 WR/CB matchups.” Simply put, Godwin’s matchup is the best on the team. He’s a solid WR2. … Breshad Perriman ran a route on 75% of the Bucs’ passing snaps and was targeted five times. Perriman only caught two of them, but that’s enough usage to be a DFS tournament option as a zero-floor WR5. … O.J. Howard ran a route on 55% of the Bucs’ passing snaps and was targeted five times, catching four of them for 36 yards. That was a disappointment all across the board, but he’s still locked into the top-six at the position against the Panthers, who Howard torched for 21.3 PPR points last year. [[ad:athena]]
P. Barber | R. Jones | D. Ogunbowale | |
Carries | 8 | 13 | 0 |
Targets | 4 | 1 | 5 |
Snaps on Passes | 15 | 8 | 22 |
Snaps on Runs | 10 | 14 | 4 |
This backfield is a mess, especially if Winston can’t figure things out in 2019. Peyton Barber started, but he was out-snapped by Dare Ogunbowale, 26-25, and was out-touched by Ronald Jones, 14-12. Barber will lose touches to Jones when the Bucs are leading and will lose touches to Ogunbowale when the Bucs are trailing. For now, all three shouldn’t be started in standard-sized leagues.
