A saga that has been anything but feel-good has ended with Deshaun Watson becoming a Cleveland Brown and the second highest-paid player in NFL history. The draft pick cache surrendered for his services — three first-rounders, a third-rounder and a fourth-rounder — is amongst the largest of all time. Every dollar of Watson’s record-setting $230 million contract is guaranteed. That this happened just seven days after a Harris County, Texas grand jury declined to indict Watson on sexual assault charges is hard to take in, especially as 22 civil lawsuits continue to loom. The NFL has said its investigation is ongoing.
The Browns will say all the right things like they have “done their homework,” but we know that is not truly possible. They spent a few hours meeting with Watson amidst the frenzy of free agency. They are making a gamble like few in sports history, one many in their fanbase will rebel against. The team will lose lifelong followers. Gamble though it is, it is based on the back of one ruthless calculation: Watson is one of the best players in the NFL and the Browns wanted a better quarterback.
The last time Watson was on the field, he played at an MVP level in 2020. He led the NFL in both yards and yards per attempt, completing 70.2 percent of his passes while posting a 33:7 TD:INT ratio. Few in the league possess his combination of efficiency and big-play ability. It is the same mix that propelled Joe Burrow’s Bengals to the Super Bowl in 2021. Like Burrow, Watson has a penchant for taking too many sacks, but it is the lone blemish in his unquestionably elite game.
Watson’s monster 2020 came with a good, but not great supporting cast after the Texans traded DeAndre Hopkins. He made Will Fuller a top-eight PPR receiver — before his steroid suspension — while coaxing another 1,000-yard campaign out of Brandin Cooks. The personnel will be worse in Cleveland, but not hopelessly so. Frustrating though he is, Amari Cooper is a viable building block for any quarterback. Whereas Cooper would have been a questionable WR2 with Baker Mayfield, he is back in the top 14-18 mix with Watson.
Help figures to be added behind Cooper, but even if it is not, Donovan Peoples-Jones could be something of a poor man’s Fuller down the field. Mayfield didn’t have the skills to consistently hit DPJ for his patented long gains. Watson does. DPJ is WR4 live with room to grow. Harrison Bryant and David Njoku are also capable of big plays from the seam. Again, there is every reason to believe another addition or two will be made, but even if there isn’t, the skill is here for Watson to resume operating as a top-eight fantasy quarterback.
That is not to mention the fact that Watson will have something he never had in Houston: A dominant running attack. Although that could cap Winston’s volume, it will also open up more space in the passing game than he had in Houston. Like Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay or Russell Wilson during his glory years in Seattle, Watson won’t need monster volume to get home for big days. He has the accuracy and down-field ability to do more with less.
Beyond Cleveland will be a game of mid-range quarterback musical chairs. Baker Mayfield figures to land in Seattle or Indianapolis. Fences will have to be mended with Matt Ryan in Atlanta if they remain at all. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport has reported Atlanta will work to make Ryan “feel wanted.” Good luck with that. Like Mayfield, Ryan could end up in Seattle. He would be a good fit for a run-first offense at this stage of his career.
Mayfield has to land with a ground-based attack, just like the one he is leaving behind. He reportedly prefers Indy, and Indy should prefer him to other options like Jimmy Garoppolo. Mayfield is not as bad as he appeared in 2021. Playing with only one functional shoulder, even if it is to your non-throwing side, basically isn’t possible for a quarterback. Mayfield paid a steep price for his “toughness.” He would be someone Frank Reich could work with in Indy.
The final word on Watson is that none of this is pleasant. It was a mistake by the league to remain on the sidelines. The speed with which interested teams compartmentalized Watson’s non-indictment and treated him like any other available quarterback was head spinning. The league should have taken matters into its own hands and placed Watson on the commissioner’s exempt list while it conducted its investigation in advance of a possible suspension. While it’s true Watson was already de facto suspended for 17 games in 2021, he was also fully paid. There needs to be more.
It is hard to shake the feeling that this will end poorly for Cleveland. That is a staggering amount of resources to give up for any player. For someone in Watson’s situation, it is almost unfathomable. What happens if more accusers come forward? It is doubtful Cleveland spent too much time pondering these questions this week. They treated Watson as solely a football solution to a football question. Everyone knows the situation is much more complex than that. The Browns won the sweepstakes for Watson’s quarterbacking ability. Only time will tell what they lost.
