With the NFL draft around the corner, I’m releasing my pre-draft rookie ranks with in-depth analytical profiles. Below are my tight end rankings. I’ve already released:
These rankings are fantasy football-focused and driven by statistical metrics I’ll explain throughout the profiles. These rankings also factor in expected NFL draft position. NFL draft position, and the scouting that drives it, plays a huge role in prospects’ success and failure. The biggest post-draft swings in my rankings will come from draft-dependent prospects locking in high draft capital and strong analytical prospects slipping more than expected in the draft.
Regarding draft position, it is my hope that, as much as possible, NFL general managers, scouts, and evaluators are not factoring in the various metrics that I rely on in my positional ranks. If they were, I could save a lot of time and just rank prospects by expected draft position. Obviously, there is overlap between what scouts are looking for and the type of stats teams tend to favor when putting their boards together. But ideally, the metrics below are adding a predictive element that we can add to draft position to better predict fantasy success. And for tight ends specifically, traits that could make a tight end a great real life pick—like run blocking ability—may have very little fantasy value.
These profiles also include statistical comps. These comps are based on key metrics for tight ends yards per route run, yardage share, depth of target, size, athleticism, and expected draft position. The comps won’t always be perfect stylistically, although I’ve tried to avoid comping tight ends who will clearly play in the slot to prototypical inline tight ends and vice versa. But the primary purpose of the comps is to help illuminate a range of outcomes for each player and serve as a reminder that a player’s prospect profile is a helpful tool in projecting them to the next level even if an imperfect one.
Greg Dulcich, UCLA
Statistical Comps
Size and athleticism - Dulcich is slightly undersized at 6 foot 4, 243 pounds and should primarily operate from the slot in the NFL. His athleticism isn’t off the charts, but he looks sufficiently athletic to operate as a big receiver with a 4.69 40, a 34-inch vertical, a 122-inch broad jump, and a 7.05 3-cone.
Age and experience - Dulcich spent four seasons at UCLA and turned 22 in March. He’s not a young prospect, but age and early declare status are far less important for tight ends than wide receivers. Dulcich would definitely have a higher ceiling as a 21-year-old early declare, but he’ll have plenty of fantasy value if he can earn a starting role and targets.
Receiving production - Dulcich emerged as a redshirt sophomore in 2020 with a 26-517-5 receiving line in seven games. While not overly impressive in terms of raw stats, the tight end accounted for 33% of UCLA’s receiving yards and 28% of their receiving TDs, and his dominator rating (average of yardage share and TD share) hit the 30% breakout threshold. In 2021, Dulcich went 43-721-5 in 11 games, with a 30% yardage share and a 25% TD share. He was one TD away from another breakout season.
Dulcich finished his career with a 24% yardage share, an impressive showing from a tight end that leads the 2022 class. Dulcich’s low TD total—he scored just 11 in 24 career games—is a bit concerning, though, particularly because Dulcich is on the smaller side for a tight end and doesn’t project to be a major red zone threat. Dulcich did post a 22% TD share, so it’s not like he completely disappeared around the goal line. Instead, his TD issues were partly a result of the UCLA offense. Therefore, his low college TD total could mean very little for his NFL prospects. If he lands on a potent offense or his quarterback tends to look for the tight end in the red zone, Dulcich could nearly match his entire college TD total in one NFL season. After all, Dalton Schultz scored just five TDs in 30 college games... that didn’t stop him from scoring eight for Dallas last season.
Receiving efficiency - Dulcich’s breakout 2020 came with impressive efficiency of 2.44 yards per route run and 12.6 yards per target. He fell off a bit in 2021 but still had good marks of 1.93 YPRR and 11.2 YPT. With a career YPRR of 2.04, he ranks third in the class, and he is tied for first in the class with 11.2 YPT.
Receiving Deployment - Dulcich played 42% of his snaps in the slot in his 2020 breakout. He was at 36% in 2021, finishing with a 42% career slot rate. That puts him well below Mark Andrews (75%) but above other big slot receivers like Mike Gesicki (34%). Dulcich is unlikely to be deployed as a traditional tight end with his smaller size and plus athleticism.
Dulcich was more similar to Andrews than Gesicki in his target depth. Average depth of target (aDOT) has been a surprisingly important metric for NFL tight ends. Among 2021’s 25 tight ends with 50+ targets, Kyle Pitts, Rob Gronkowski, Mark Andrews, Hunter Henry, and Darren Waller led the way in aDOT. Conversely, the five lowest tight ends were Tyler Conklin, Pat Freiermuth, Gerald Everett, Evan Engram, and C.J. Uzomah.
aDOT doesn’t tell us much about how well a player is playing; it just literally provides the average depth of their targets. And at wide receiver, aDOT is mostly helpful for breaking players into archetypes. For example, Marquez Valdes-Scantling (18.4 aDOT) is a prototypical field stretcher, and Amon-Ra St. Brown (7.0) is a classic underneath slot receiver, but aDOT isn’t generally going to tell you how good a wide receiver is.
But if a tight end can earn deep targets at all, it appears to be a bullish signal. We’re talking about individuals who weigh 240+ pounds and are responsible for key blocking assignments. Not everyone in that mold will also be able to stretch the seam. The tight ends who can are more likely to be special talents.
With an aDOT of 13.2, Dulcich has the highest aDOT of any Day 1-2 tight end going back to 2015. His deep threat ability puts him in a very intriguing group of prospects. Since 2015, only nine tight ends have been selected on Day 1 or 2 with a 10+ aDOT and 1.8+ YPRR: Kyle Pitts, T.J. Hockenson, Noah Fant, Hunter Henry, Dallas Goedert, Maxx Williams, Jace Sternberger, Mark Andrews, and Adam Trautman.
Outlook - Dulcich isn’t much of a blocker, so if he struggles as a pass-catcher, he could tumble down a depth chart, much like Jace Sternberger. But if Dulcich can hang as a receiver, he should get plenty of opportunities for targets, operating as a big slot in the mold of Mike Gesicki. Dulcich doesn’t have Gesicki’s athleticism (4.54 40, 41.5-inch vertical, 129-inch broad jump, 6.76 3-cone), but he showed far more as an actual receiver with a 24% career yardage share to Gesicki’s 13% and 2.04 YPRR to Gesicki’s 1.57. I’m happy to trade athleticism for receiving skills... to a point. And Dulcich’s athleticism is well above red flag levels.
Critically, Dulcich’s receiving skills could be good enough to meaningfully impact games; Dulcich’s college usage suggests that he can operate as a valuable NFL seam stretcher. That type of role would give him a chance to carve out a league-winning target share—like Mark Andrews, who has yet to see an aDOT below 10.5 in four seasons.
Dulcich is a risky bet because he won’t have a blocking role to fall back on. If he disappoints as a receiver, it’s curtains. But if Dulcich hits—and there are good reasons to think he will—he offers a legitimately high ceiling as a downfield weapon with tight end eligibility.
Rookie Pick Prospect Grade: 2nd
Trey McBride, Colorado State
Statistical Comps
Size and athleticism - McBride weighed in at the Combine at 6 foot 4, 246 pounds. He skipped the 40 and posted unimpressive jumps with a 33-inch vertical and 117-inch broad. He then boosted his draft stock with a 4.56 40 at his Pro Day. McBride’s jumps keep him from profiling as an ultra-athletic tight end, but he looks sufficiently athletic to become fantasy relevant.
Age and experience - McBride played four seasons at Colorado State and will turn 23 during the 2022 season.
Receiving production - McBride emerged as a sophomore with a 45-560-4 receiving line in 12 games. The following season he played only four games, but his 318 yards were good for a 41% receiving share, and his four TDs were good for a 100% TD share. Even though it was just four games, McBride smashed the 30% dominator rating breakout threshold with a 70% mark. He went 90-1,098-1 in 12 games as a senior, posting a 37% yardage share, an elite mark for a tight end. His 7% TD share marred what would have otherwise been an incredibly productive final season.
McBride had an impressive 23% career yardage share, which would have been even better if he’d managed to play more than four games in 2020. Even still, he finished with the second-highest yardage share in the 2022 tight end class.
McBride was even worse than Dulcich as a TD producer, scoring just 10 in 33 career games. But like Dulcich, his TD share was respectable at 21%. McBride won’t be a true red zone weapon, but he’ll still have decent TD upside in a good offense.
Receiving efficiency - McBride averaged 2.60 YPRR in 2020 and 2.78 YPRR as a senior. He finished with a 2.11 career YPRR, the second-best mark in the class. McBride drew targets at a high rate with a 23% target rate. Although, he paired that with a mediocre 9.4 YPT, driven primarily by underneath usage.
Receiving deployment - McBride wasn’t used very far downfield. With an aDOT of 8.4, he was primarily a shallow option. His 2020 season showed some promise for more downfield work, though. McBride took 43% of his 2020 snaps from the slot and posted a 9.1 aDOT. But in 2021, he was inline for 69% of his snaps with just 20% in the slot and an aDOT of 8.6. With his 2021 sample over three times as large as his 2020 sample, his senior season likely signals how he’ll be used in the NFL. In other words, McBride projects as a traditional inline tight end who probably won’t see many deep targets.
Outlook - McBride profiles as an Austin Hooper or Pat Freiermuth type who should quickly secure a starting job and earn targets as an underneath outlet. He won’t be a TD scoring force, but if Dulcich can get open quickly, he’ll see a sufficient share of TD opportunities. So while an underneath outlet with quarterback-dependent TD upside is far from the world’s most exciting archetype, McBride projects to be quite capable of taking that role on.
Rookie Pick Prospect Grade: 2nd
Charlie Kolar, Iowa State
Statistical Comps
Size and athleticism - Kolar has a classic tight end build at 6 foot 6.5, 252 pounds. He skipped Combine testing but impressed at his Pro Day with a 4.62 40, 35.5-inch vertical, and 120-inch broad jump. Kolar isn’t an elite athlete but is above average for a tight end.
Age and experience - Kolar spent five years at Iowa State and turned 23 in February.
Receiving production - Kolar never hit a 30% dominator rating in any of his four seasons but was a strong TD scorer with TD shares of 30%, 24%, 35%, and 30% from 2018-21. He was less impressive in terms of receiving yardage but not bad. His 19% career yarage share is tied for fifth-highest in the class.
Receiving efficiency - Kolar was not efficient as a redshirt freshman with just 0.83 YPRR, but he got it together for the rest of his career, posting seasons of 2.12, 2.20, and 2.08 YPRR to close out his Iowa State career. Kolar’s 8.6 YPT is low enough to qualify as a red flag, but he helped make up for it by earning targets at a high rate of 23%. His career 1.94 YPRR is the fifth-highest mark in the class. While not an elite mark, it’s better than prospects like George Kittle (1.91), Noah Fant (1.81), and Pat Freiermuth (1.81).
Receiving deployment - Kolar played 53% of his career snaps in the slot and never played fewer than 47% in the slot in any season. He played fewer than 30% of his snaps inline in his final two campaigns. Kolar’s size indicates that he could be an inline tight end in the NFL, but it could take some time for him to grow into that role.
Kolar earned targets downfield with an 11.2 aDOT. If he goes in Round 3, he’ll join Pitts, Hockenson, Fant, Henry, Goedert, Williams Sternberger, Andrews, Trautman, and presumably Dulcich in the Day 1-2 tight ends that had a 10+ aDOT with 1.8+ YPRR.
Outlook - Kolar’s size and sub-elite athleticism set him up to be an inline tight end in the NFL, but given his low rate of inline snaps to close out his career, that transition will likely take a few years. However, Kolar was also used as a red zone weapon, and his size should help him immediately translate that skill set. If he lands in a situation where he can play huge-slot as he improves his run blocking, he could be fantasy relevant quickly.
Rookie Pick Prospect Grade: 3rd
Isaiah Likely
Statistical Comps
Size and athleticism - Likely is an undersized tight end prospect, weighing in at 6 foot 4.5, 245 pounds at the Combine and only 238 pounds at his Pro Day. He posted a 36-inch vertical at the Combine and then a 4.82 40, a 123-inch broad jump, and a 7.39 3-cone at his Pro Day.
Age and experience - Likely is a four-year player who turns 22 just before the draft.
Receiving production - Likely emerged right away as a TD producer with five TDs in seven games as a freshman, good for a 38% TD share. He then posted receiving lines of 32-431-5 in 12 games and 30-601-5 in 10 games for respectable dominator ratings of 21% and 23%. As a senior, Likely delivered a breakout season with a 59-912-12 receiving line in 13 games, good enough for a 26% yardage share and 36% TD share. His 21% career yardage share is the third-highest in the class.
Receiving efficiency - Likely was highly efficient in his breakout 2020 with a genuinely elite 2.99 YPRR, and he impressed with 2.70 YPRR as a junior as well. His 2.42 career YPRR is the highest in the 2022 class and puts him on par with Mark Andrews (2.42) and Kyle Pitts (2.36). Likely was impressive both at earning targets (22% target rate) and after he was targeted (11.1 YPT).
Receiving deployment - Likely played 33% of his career snaps in the slot and 61% inline. He was most effective in 2021 with a career-high 40% of his snaps in the slot. Given his size, he’ll likely play a big slot role in the NFL.
Like Dulcich and Kolar, Likely was good at earning targets downfield. His 11.2 aDOT puts him in the same group of players with a 10+ career aDOT and 1.8+ YPRR... assuming Likely is selected on Day 2. However, we’ll probably see him fall to Day 3. Still, Darren Waller and Tyler Higbee both emerged from Day 3 with the same aDOT and YPRR profile.
Outlook - Likely’s receiving efficiency and TD production offer an enticing ceiling. However, he ran a 4.82 40 at his Pro Day after dropping seven pounds from the Combine. As a glorified slot receiver, he could have trouble earning a starting role with that kind of speed. We’ve seen some slow tight ends succeed, but they’ve usually been traditional tight ends with blocking chops in the Will Dissly mold. As a Day 3 pick, Likely could have trouble cracking the top of a depth chart unless he can function as more of a traditional tight end than expected. Still, if Likely can emerge as slow Mark Andrews, that will have fantasy value.
Rookie Pick Prospect Grade: 3rd
Jeremy Ruckert
Statistical Comps
Size and athleticism - Ruckert weighed in 6 foot 5.5, 252 at the Combine. He did not participate in predraft testing due to a foot injury.
Age and experience - Ruckert spent four seasons at Ohio State and will turn 22 in August.
Receiving efficiency - Ruckert averaged a dreadful 0.87 YPRR at Ohio State, and in his one year a starter in 2021, he actually lowered his career average with 0.79 YPRR.
However, it’s critical to remember that Ruckert spent 2021 competing for targets with Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. And in 2020, with all three wide receivers on the roster as well as Jameson Williams, Ruckert had a 28% TD share. His 8% career yardage share is about as bad as it gets, but there are extenuating circumstances.
Receiving deployment - Ruckert played 57% of his career snaps inline with 39% of his snaps in the slot. He looks likely to play traditional tight end but could kick into the slot as well. With a career aDOT of 8.7 and a spotty receiving profile overall, he’s likely to operate as an underneath option.
Outlook - Ruckert is primarily a draft position bet. With Ohio State pedigree and strong marks as a run blocker, he’ll likely be selected on Day 2, which would give him a solid chance of becoming a starter. With a nearly non-existent receiving profile, that’s not super exciting, which is why he didn’t make my initial tight end rankings. But his receiving profile should be treated effectively as an unkown, given his absurd level of target competition at Ohio State. He’s very likely to be a check down option rather than a true receiving threat, but it should not be a surprise if he emerges as a Dawson Knox level receiving option if he secures a full-time starting role.
Rookie Pick Prospect Grade: 3rd
Daniel Bellinger
Statistical Comps
Size and athleticism - Bellinger weighed in at the Combine at 6 foot 5, 253 pounds and posted an impressive workout with a 4.63 40, a 34.5-inch vertical, a 125-inch broad jump, and a 7.05 3-cone. He slightly improved his vertical (35 inches) and 3-cone (7.03) at his Pro Day. He profiles as a strong athlete.
Age and experience - Bellinger spent four years in college but doesn’t turn 22 until September.
Receiving production - Bellinger’s receiving production was lackluster throughout his career with just 68 receptions for 771 yards and five TDs in 29 career games. His career yardage share of 15% and TD share of 19% are well below ideal.
Receiving efficiency - Bellinger was very inefficient as a freshman and sophomore with 0.59 and 0.90 YPRRs. He wasn’t much better as a junior with 1.05 YPRR. He wasn’t bad as a senior with 1.66 YPRR, but even that mark is below par given his experience level. With career numbers of 1.19 YPRR, 7.4 YPT, and a 16% target rate, Bellinger profiles as a very raw receiver.
Receiving deployment - Bellinger played 56% of his snaps inline and 38% in the slot. He’ll likely play mostly in the slot as a pro given his consistently poor blocking grades. However, he could underwhelm in that role given his career aDOT of just 7.1. Bellinger may be a plus athlete, but he was deployed very close to the line of scrimmage, which is not great for his NFL outlook.
Outlook - Overall, Bellinger projects as a bit of a project who has the athleticism necessary for a long-term investment to pay off, in the mold of Jonnu Smith. Still, Smith has been in the league since 2017 and has never topped 150 PPR points. Bellinger will probably stick on an NFL roster, but that may not save him from the dynasty waiver wire.
Rookie Pick Prospect Grade: 3rd
James Mitchell
Statistical Comps
Size and athleticism - Mitchell is slightly undersized at 6 foot 4, 249 pounds. He did not work out in the predraft process because he tore his ACL in September 2021. As a result, he is unlikely to make an impact as a rookie.
Age and experience - Mitchell spent four years at Virginia Tech and will turn 23 in August.
Receiving production - Michell’s raw stats leave a lot to be desired with a career receiving line of just 52-840-7 in 22 games. However, he was held back by a low-volume passing game and actually had a breakout season in 2020 with a 24% yardage share and 40% TD share. He was on pace for a repeat in 2021 but tore his ACL just two games into the season.
Mitchell’s career yardage share of 19% is relatively impressive, considering that it includes 11 games from his redshirt freshman season and just 11 additional games after that.
Receiving efficiency - Michell’s career 2.01 YPRR is an impressive mark for a tight end, and he was otherworldly in 2020 with 3.03 YPRR, 10.4 YPT, and a 29% target rate in a nine-game season. He wasn’t as impressive in 2021 with just 1.62 YPRR, but that was in just two games, and it’s possible he would have found his 2020 form again if he hadn’t suffered a season-ending knee injury.
Receiving deployment - Mitchell spent 41% of his snaps inline and 45% of his snaps in the slot, so he could play either role in the NFL. Although with unknown athleticism, it’s hard to know how Mitchell will translate as a big slot receiver.
One promising sign is that in his 2020 breakout, Mitchell had an 11.5 aDOT. His aDOT was much lower in both 2019 (7.0) and 2021 (5.0), but still—when at his best—Michell was a seam stretcher.
Outlook - Mitchell has a multi-year path to fantasy relevance, considering he’ll start his rookie season less than a year removed from an ACL tear. His injury will also cost him draft position, making it harder to emerge once fully healthy. Still, he could earn a fantasy-relevant starting role over time in the mold of Tyler Higbee.
Rookie Pick Prospect Grade: Late 3rd
Jelani Woods
Statistical Comps
Size and athleticism - Woods projects as a classic inline tight end at 6 foot 7, 253 pounds, and with a 4.61 40, a 37.5-inch vertical, 129-inch broad jump, and 6.95 3-cone at the Combine, he has high-end athleticism for the position.
Age and experience - Woods redshirted as a freshman and is five years removed from his high school graduation. He’s old even by redshirt senior standards, turning 24 in October.
Receiving production - Woods spent his first three seasons at Oklahoma State, amassing receiving lines of 7-120-2, 16-112-1, and 8-129-1. He transferred to Virginia in 2021 and finally emerged, posting a 44-598-8 receiving line, but even at Virginia, he was well short of a true breakout season with a 13% yardage share and a 27% TD share.
Receiving efficiency - Woods was very inefficient at Oklahoma State, with YPRR marks of 1.19, 0.67, and 0.92 in his three seasons there. He was much better at Virginia with 1.80 YPRR.
As a senior, Woods earned targets at an impressive 21% rate but struggled with an 8.4 YPT. His career 8.3 YPT helps explain why he struggled to see the field for most of his college career.
He finished his career with 1.29 YPRR and looks very raw as a receiver—not ideal given his age.
Receiving deployment - Woods played 63% of his snaps inline over his career and was up to 74% in his senior season. Promisingly, his aDOT jumped from 6.4 at Oklahoma State to 11.1 at Virginia. With his athleticism, it’s great to see that Woods was able to challenge deep while playing traditional tight end.
Outlook - Woods projects as a classic inline tight end who could still offer receiving upside in the mold of Albert Okwuegbunam. However, it would be a surprise if Woods flashes as quickly as Okwuegbunam has. Woods’ 1.29 YPRR is a major red flag and indicates that the start of his career could be more of a slow burn like we’ve seen from Cole Kmet (1.46 YPRR). Given his potential for Day 3 draft capital, Woods’ slow burn could be behind the scenes rather than in a starting role. Ultimately, if Woods does emerge, it may need to be in an ideal spot where inefficiency isn’t a deal-breaker like we’ve seen with Dawson Knox (1.45 YPRR) and Dalton Schultz (0.86 YPRR). It’s also possible that Woods isn’t fantasy viable even if he starts, as had been the case with Ian Thomas (1.38 YPRR).
Rookie Pick Prospect Grade: Late 3rd
Cade Otton
Statistical Comps
Size and athleticism - Otton weighed in at the Combine at 6 foot 5, 247 pounds. Due to an ankle injury, he did not work out in the predraft process.
Age and experience - Otton spent five years at Washington and will turn 23 before the draft.
Receiving production - Otton underwhelmed as a receiver in four seasons with a career receiving line of 91-1,026-9 in 31 games. However, he had a remarkable four-game stretch in 2020 with 18-258-3 that was good for a 28% yardage share, a 75% TD share, and a 52% dominator rating. After falling back to earth as a senior, he finished with a poor 14% career yardage share.
Receiving efficiency - In his four-game 2020, Otton was highly efficient with 2.72 YPRR and 12.9 YPT. However, that was the only time he was efficient in his career, posting YPRR marks of 1.41, 1.16, and 1.06 in his other three seasons. With a career YPRR of 1.37 and a YPT of 8.5, Otton profiles as an unexciting receiver at the NFL level.
Receiving deployment - Otton profiles as a traditional tight end, having played 60% of his snaps inline with 33% of his snaps in the slot. Despite having less than ideal size for the job, Otton is a solid blocker who should have a shot to earn a starting role. With a 6.8 career aDOT, Otton projects to run shallow routes, serving as an outlet and check down option.
Outlook - Otton is likely to play traditional tight end, and he could earn a tertiary receiving role in the mold of Dalton Schultz. In the right offense, that could be valuable, but he is very likely to be situation and quarterback-dependent. It’s also not clear that he will have Day 2 draft capital, making an eventual starting role very much up in the air.
Rookie Pick Prospect Grade: Late 3rd
