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Quarterback
Chalk
Hurts ranks second in the NFL in carries inside the five-yard line. He’s also top-10 in red zone carries and second in total rushing touchdowns. This is all while lighting it up as a passer. Hurts leads the NFL in yards per attempt (9.3) and is third in passing yards per game (305).
The Buffalo/Baltimore game has the highest total of the week, sitting at 51 points. That’s three points higher than any other game. The Bills’ team total of 27 points also paces the entire slate.
Allen is completing his passes at a 71 percent clip while averaging 7.7 yards per attempt. Allen is also the Bills’ leading rusher with 113 yards on the ground.
Pivots
Out from under the oppressive yet bumbling thumb of Urban Meyer, Lawrence’s career is back on track. Lawrence is fifth among all quarterbacks in EPA per play and second in completion percent over expected. Backing Lawrence is a unique way to attack a pace-up spot against Philly. The Eagles rank second in neutral situation pace while the Jags sit at seventh.
Herbert is dealing with a painful rib injury, but the issue didn’t limit his ceiling last week.
JUSTIN HERBERT HOW?!?! WHAT A THROW
— NFL (@NFL) September 25, 2022
📺: #JAXvsLAC on CBS
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/DpipbWDRkA pic.twitter.com/osRwnHcE5P
The injury also didn’t prevent Brandon Staley from keeping Herbert in the game while down 28 points. This week, the Chargers have the fourth-highest implied team total of the slate. On the year, they have been one of the most aggressive teams in regards to their pass rate.
Running Back
Chalk
As of the time I am writing this, David Montgomery is more likely to play than D’Andre Swift, so Jamaal Williams is the chalk option at running back. Williams leads the NFL in red zone carries (11) and touchdowns (four). With Swift banged up last week, Williams earned 20 carries and two catches. Both he and Khalil Herbert will be massively popular if their respective starters are ruled out.
Barkley leads all running backs in fantasy points per game and faces the Bears this week. Chicago ranks 30th in rushing yards per game allowed, having given up 157 yards per week so far. Barkley also leads the NFL in rushing yards over expected. Fully healthy for the first time in years, Barkley should rip the Bears apart.
Pivots
In the past two weeks, Pierce has earned 85 percent of the Texans’ carries and all but one of their red zone attempts. He faces an LA defense that ranks 23rd in EPA per rush attempt allowed and just lost Joey Bosa.
The Browns have a top-five team total on the main slate. They are 1.5-point favorites against the defense that ranks dead last in rush EPA per play allowed.
Chubb leads the NFL in carries and rushing yards through three weeks. This is the perfect spot for him to run over an inferior defense.
Wide Receiver
Chalk
Doubs ran a route on 94 percent of Aaron Rodgers’ dropbacks last week. He was targeted eight times and led the team with 73 receiving yards. The rookie also found the end zone. Doubs didn’t get much of a price hike on either site and plays for an offense we want to target. He should lead the trio of himself, Richie James, and Zay Jones in ownership among the pay-down options.
Diggs has a 28 percent target share and a 37 percent air yards share on the best passing attack in the NFL. The Bills lead the NFL in passing yards per game (338). They are also passing at an absurd, 14 percent clip over expected.
Lamb leads all receivers in target share (35 percent) and ranks fourth in air yards share (43 percent). His opponent, Washington, has given up the third-most points to opposing receivers this year. Having played on Monday night, Lamb didn’t get a price bump after posting an 8/87/1 line.
Pivots
Bateman has been used as a downfield threat this year. He has a 17.6 aDOT and ranks 20th among receivers in total air yards. Playing the Baltimore/Buffalo game through Mark Andrews and a Bills stack will be the chalk approach. I see using Bateman and one other receiver in this game as key differentiators.
Davis is the other contrarian receiver in the game of the week. In two appearances this year, Davis has run a route on 100 and 96 percent of Josh Allen’s dropbacks. He isn’t threatening Diggs for the WR1 role, but Davis has a 27 percent air yards share and leads Buffalo with a 13.8 aDOT.
Most importantly, the Ravens have been crushed by opponents through the air. They are allowing 7.5 yards per pass attempt and have faced a passing attempt on 70 percent of their defensive snaps.
Because Jacoby Brissett isn’t much of a risk-taker, Cooper leads the NFL with an air yards share over 50 percent. He is also 10th in targets per route run and is coming off consecutive games with 101 yards and a touchdown. The Browns aren’t a high-flying offense, but they are far better than anyone could have expected with their backup passer under center.
Tight End
Chalk
Andrews is a juggernaut at the tight end position. He has a 22/245/3 receiving line on the year. Every number in his stat line leads all tight ends, as does his massive, 36 percent target share.
Because the Browns have a 24.75 implied team total and their game features a 48-point total, everyone involved has some appeal based on touchdown upside. Njoku broke out with a 9/89/1 receiving line last week. He ranks second on the Browns in targets (16) and leads the team in red zone looks (four).
Pivots
A tight end on the other side of the ball also got things going last week. Pitts topped 19 yards for the first time this year. He caught 5-of-8 targets for 87 yards. He also led the Falcons in targets for the first time with Drake London in the fold. This game could go overlooked based on the teams involved, but Vegas predicts a shootout.
Tonyan is coming off his best game of the year. He caught 6-of-7 targets for 37 yards. On the year, he ranks fifth in targets per route run among tight ends.
The Packers are tied with Cleveland for fifth in implied team total on the main slate. This should give him and the rest of the offense plenty of shots at finding the end zone.
