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Here we go with the Single Game NFL DFS slate for Thursday Night Football of Week 4. Today’s matchup is between the Bengals and Jaguars with Cincinnati checking in as a 7.5-point home favorite. The over/under currently rests at 46 total points. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 ET.
We’ll highlight the top picks and best bargains to assemble a cash-inducing lineup. On top of that, the “additional notes” section will feature several tournament selections while adding context to the rest of this slate.
We will be producing these articles for Thursday, Sunday, and Monday Night Football matchups, so be sure to bookmark the NBC Sports EDGE DFS Page for those occasions - not to mention all the other fantastic daily fantasy content.
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TOP PICKS
Joe Mixon - RB - Cincinnati (DK: $11,000 / FD: $14,000 / Yahoo: $29)
I really like Joe Mixon tonight. Sure, Jacksonville’s defense hasn’t been terrible against the run, but the Cincinnati RB should see plenty of volume to rack up the fantasy points. In the last two games where Cincinnati was favored, Mixon is averaging 100.5 rushing yards. He could easily see around 25 touches with a chance at multiple touchdowns. Most people will be looking towards Joe Burrow as their top option, but I believe the “other Joe” in Cincinnati’s backfield will lead this slate in fantasy points.
Marvin Jones Jr. - WR - Jacksonville (DK: $8,600 / FD: $11,500 / Yahoo: $17)
Cincinnati should control this game and establish the run with Mixon. While subscribing to this theory, it makes sense to look towards the Jacksonville passing attack. After all, the Jaguars should see plenty of volume in that department while trying to make a comeback. Marvin Jones is the best receiving option on the team, and I believe he’s worth this full salary on all three sites. A line of 6-75-1 on 10+ targets is entirely plausible, even if Jones needs garbage time to get there.
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BEST BARGAINS
Auden Tate - WR - Cincinnati (DK: $400 / FD: $6,000 / Yahoo: $10)
Tee Higgins is out tonight. That will undoubtedly push more targets to Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd, but don’t forget about the cheap receivers either. Tate played 27 snaps in Higgins’ absence last week, catching his lone target for 19 yards. He’s dirt-cheap on all DFS sites while standing out on DraftKings, as the salaries are more competitive over there. We are essentially hoping Tate will see 2-3 targets while going for 30+ yards with the outside chance of a score.
Evan McPherson - K - Cincinnati (DK: $3,800 / FD: $9,500 / Yahoo: n/a)
If you frequent these articles, then you know the drill: the lower the over/under, then the more weight we give to kickers. McPherson is a viable bargain candidate on FanDuel and DraftKings with a good chance to outscore similarly-priced players. That seems more likely on DK, as I’d rather take guys like Tyler Boyd or Laviska Shenault on FD.
TOURNAMENT LOOKS
Carlos Hyde - RB - Jacksonville (DK: $1,800 / FD: $8,000 / Yahoo: $12)
Hyde is the backup (or change-of-pace) running back for Jacksonville. Game flow isn’t in his favor, but there are a few paths to fantasy value here. 1) Hyde could vulture a touchdown in a short-yardage situation. 2) The Jaguars could fall behind by three or more scores late in the game. Hyde could see more snaps in that situation while trying to preserve the starters. 3) Hyde has been naturally efficient with 95 yards on 19 carries across three games this season.
ADDITIONAL NOTES
Joe Burrow (QB - CIN) is definitely worth a look as your top choice. However, game flow leads me to Mixon’s upside. There’s certainly room for both in the same lineup, especially if you decide to roll with one of the aforementioned bargain options.
Jacksonville’s pass defense is no stranger to giving up big plays. That bodes well for Ja’Marr Chase (WR - CIN) and Tyler Boyd (WR - CIN), who could see more targets with Tee Higgins ruled out. I prefer Chase over Boyd in this instance, as I believe he’s more explosive with a chance to hit a huge play before game flow settles down the Cincy passing attack.
Trevor Lawrence (QB - JAC) and Laviska Shenault (WR - JAC) are in play through all formats. Lawrence’s passing prop rests at a measly 244.5 yards, and he’s only hit that in one of three games this season. However, he should be able to rack up fantasy points through volume alone. I’m not afraid to stack the rookie with Jones and Shenualt while DJ Chark (WR - JAC) is more of a tournament-only option who needs a big play to hit.
James Robinson (RB - JAC) is a counter-intuitive play who will have lower support in tournaments. He’s more reserved for GPPs while hoping he can replicate his big game from last week. Game flow isn’t necessarily on his side, but Robinson proved last year (and last week) that he doesn’t need the Jaguars to lead in order to find fantasy value.
Jacob Hollister (TE - JAC) and Dan Arnold (TE - JAC) are a pair of dirt-cheap pass catchers from Jacksonville. Arnold was acquired earlier this week, so I’m not sure what his snap rate will look like. Hollister saw six targets last week, so he could make for a viable bargain if Arnold doesn’t cut into his workload.
