The NFL Draft is a well-organized process that features a methodical approach of 32 teams taking turns at steadily improving their teams. Sure, the madness of draft day trades shakes things up every so often, but the draft is anything but the free-for-all that unfolds seconds after its final pick.
The rookie UDFA signing period is a football news cycle unlike any other. As soon as it hits, the NBC Sports EDGE Slack becomes ripe with frenzied dialogue that can be best described as a virtual representation of what the Washington Post’s newsroom looked like during the Watergate Scandal.
But that’s enough politics.
If you’re like me, then you saw several dynasty rookie drafts fire up shortly after the NFL Draft ended. As those rookie drafts kicked off, NFL Draft castoffs began signing with teams in hopes of mapping out the start of their NFL careers.
These undrafted rookies make for interesting dynasty assets. In the way they were widely slept on by the league, dynasty leaguers will also sleep on these players at a high rate, presenting a great opportunity for savvy drafters to buy low.
The guy who bought into LeGarrette Blount after he went undrafted in 2010 was probably more than satisfied with the 201-1007-6 line he posted as a rookie with the Buccaneers -- who he caught on with after being cut from the Titans in training camp.
Austin Ekeler truthers are also reportedly very happy with their returns over the first six years of his career. Undrafted rookie free agents are the diamonds in the rough every dynasty leaguer hopes to find. While the odds of hitting are few and far between, there’s nothing sweeter than one paying off.
With several exciting rookies set to battle it out for roster spots, here are a few UDFAs I’m stashing heading into this offseason.
Note: Advanced stats and metrics courtesy of RotoViz, Sports-Reference.com and Pro Football Focus.
The process, the process, the process
As previously mentioned, I wrote this article last year. I encourage anybody reading this to check it out HERE to see why I’m primarily targeting running backs and receivers in this article -- and most likely for the foreseeable future.
If you do look back at last year’s article, please pay no attention to the player takes -- unless you’re a Justyn Ross hopeful, then feel free to scroll all the way to the bottom.
If you don’t look back at last year’s article, the process for stashing UDFAs can be best summarized as taking calculated shots at running backs and receivers. Of the UDFAs in recent history, quarterbacks are the easiest position to fade. We haven’t seen an undrafted rookie quarterback enjoy fantasy-relevant success since Eastern Illinois’ Tony Romo, who enjoyed a spectacular career but hasn’t played since 2016. It’s been a while.
Undrafted tight ends seldom contribute anything truly meaningful, with guys like Antonio Gates serving as the rare outlier. Although current Saints tight end Juwan Johnson is worth a mention. After going for 59-706-11 over the last two seasons, Johnson earned a contract extension with the Saints this offseason and enters camp as the unquestioned TE1.
I actually love Johnson at his current ADP in best ball drafts, but that’s a conversation for another day.
Running backs and wide receivers are undoubtedly the way to go when it comes to stashing rookie UDFAs. Respectfully, anybody stashing undrafted tight ends and quarterbacks is simply doing it wrong -- with the exception of the occasional outlier, it’s unlikely any of those players amount to much more than a roster clogger.
Keaton Mitchell, RB: Baltimore Ravens
Throughout the pre-draft process, there were few late-round running backs I loved more than East Carolina’s Keaton Mitchell.
One of several undersized (5'8/179) backs in the class, Mitchell didn’t hear his name called on draft day, but signed with the Ravens just moments after the draft ended. It’s probably not a coincidence that Mitchell landed with the Ravens, who also signed his father, Anthony Mitchell, as a UDFA in 1999 after he went undrafted out of Tuskegee in 1999. Mitchell’s father wound up making the Ravens and was a part of their Super Bowl XXXV team. In fact, Anthony Mitchell scored the go-ahead touchdown on a blocked field goal in the 2000 AFC Divisional Game between the Ravens and Titans to help give Baltimore the win.
It’s safe to say Mitchell has NFL bloodlines.
During his time at ECU, Mitchell was one of the more explosive running backs in the nation -- literally. His 29 breakaway runs (15+ yards) led all running backs in the country last season and was clocked at a ridiculous 22.6 MPH on a touchdown last season.
Keaton Mitchell 49 yards to the house!!💨💨#AmericanFB x @ECUPiratesFB pic.twitter.com/h3VORZK2HX
— American Football (@American_FB) November 26, 2022
🏴☠️✌️ What a 1st half for Keaton Mitchell.
— Pirate Radio ☠️ (@PR927FM) November 26, 2022
12 carries, 133 yds, 1 TD
1 catch, 73 yds, 1 TD
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Mitchell blazed a solid 4.37 40-time at the NFL Combine and tested at elite levels in the vertical and broad jump. Looking at the Ravens’ roster, there are multiple ways Mitchell could contribute down the line. With a college receiving line of 60-580-3, it’s possible Mitchell has the best hands of any running back on Baltimore’s roster. His reliability as a receiver could work wonders in offensive coordinator Todd Monken‘s offense, which is expected to spread the ball all over the field this season.
From a long-term perspective, the Ravens only have one running back on the roster -- Justice Hill -- under contract in 2024, and the team could cut ties with him for a $500k dead cap hit after this season.
Don’t confuse it. Even if Mitchell makes the Ravens’ roster, he’ll never earn any kind of a lead-back role due to his size. His size could also hurt him in pass blocking, but he’s the kind of player a good offensive coordinator will want to scheme around, in hopes of giving him opportunities to create in space.
Deneric Prince, RB: Kansas City Chiefs
Prince’s stock briefly rose this offseason when the Tulsa product blew up the NFL Combine and looked like arguably the most athletic running back in his class.
Despite his blow-up at the Combine, Prince ultimately went undrafted and will now try to make the Chiefs’ roster this offseason.
I have my concerns about Prince. As a matter of fact, I’d say my concerns outweigh my optimism. During his time at Tulsa, Prince rushed 316 times for 1,749 yards and 14 touchdowns while adding another 17-162-1 through the air. Interestingly, a significant portion of his rushing production -- 25.2 percent to be exact -- came against a bad University of South Florida defense. It sounds insane to say it out loud, but Prince’s already underwhelming college resumé is buoyed by multiple matchups against one of the worst programs in the country.
Guys like Prince are the players we will spend years over-hyping simply because they joined the Chiefs. Never mind their lack of draft capital or college production -- like lovers of insanity, we are all in.
Even if Prince sticks around with the Chiefs, he faces an uphill battle to crack the roster in 2023. Isiah Pacheco appears to be on the rise, Jerick McKinnon is expected to return to the Chiefs, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire is still there -- we think.
Still, athletic running backs in elite offenses are always worth the dart throw. Even if he doesn’t pan out, there’s no real regret that will come with temporarily stashing Prince as we wait for things to play out.
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Bryce Ford-Wheaton, WR: New York Giants
NFL front office and scouts don’t care what we think about players. Bryce Ford-Wheaton found this out first-hand after he went undrafted despite several analysts locking him in as an eventual Day 3 pick. NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein projected Ford-Wheaton as a fourth-round pick.
When it comes to college production, Ford-Wheaton leaves a lot to be desired. Despite starting each of his final three seasons at West Virginia, Ford-Wheaton never totaled more than 675 yards in a season and has just three 100-yard games on his resume.
At 6-foot-4, 221 pounds, Ford-Wheaton blew away the Combine with a 4.38 40-time, but strangely, the elite size/speed combination never amounted to the production we would have expected. His 1.54 career YPRR is yet another underwhelming footnote.
If he’s to make it in the NFL, Ford-Wheaton will do so as an outside receiver after he spent 91.5 percent of snaps on the outside at West Virginia.
He’ll have several players to compete with just to make the roster, including rookie third-round pick Jalin Hyatt. However, the Giants have a roster loaded with JAG receivers. It’s no secret that Ford-Wheaton has a lot of work to do in the coming months if he hopes to make a practice squad, much less crack the 53-man roster. But of all the places he could have gone, I’ll credit him with joining a roster that has several replacement-level receivers.
C.J. Johnson, WR: Seattle Seahawks
I don’t have an East Carolina bias, I swear. I just happen to like two of their more prominent UDFAs in this class.
Johnson wasted little time declaring for the NFL. In a class that features multiple fifth and sixth-year players, Johnson did his four years at East Carolina and hit the road.
A former three-star recruit from the 2019 class, Johnson was one of the best true freshman receivers in the nation in 2019, when he erupted for 54-908-4 in his first year on campus. The following two seasons inexplicably featured far more underwhelming years, as he combined for 54-925-7 from 2020-2021, but he returned in 2022 to close out on a high note (67-1016-10).
A true field stretcher, Johnson’s freshman campaign included 10 receptions of 20+ yards. His 18.8 breakout age -- which we know serves as a good indicator of future success -- ranks in the 92nd percentile per PlayerProfiler.com.
Johnson was suspended by the Pirates at the start of the 2022 season for “not living up to the standards” set by the program according to head coach Mike Houston. Despite the early suspension, Johnson was active for Week 1, and went off for 6-90-1 in Week 1 against a stout NC State defense.
Now with the Seahawks, Johnson finds himself in a crowded receiver room that just selected Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round. However, I’m more than intrigued by a receiver who boasts excellent size (6'1/224) and breakout age. Johnson won’t turn 23 until November, buying him extra time to grow as a developmental player.
Sean Tucker, RB: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Those who tuned in to watch Sean Tucker play on Saturdays can confirm he has a little bit of #dawg in him. The former Syracuse running back totaled 3,182 rushing yards and 27 touchdowns in his career, adding another 64-622-4 through the air.
His productive college profile includes First Team All-American and First Team All-ACC honors as a sophomore in 2021, and Tucker opted to forego his senior season to enter this year’s draft.
Unfortunately for the early declare, a reported medical condition sunk his draft stock, which resulted in him going undrafted through all seven rounds of the draft.
Tucker would go on to have his own pro day and reportedly ran in the mid to high 4.3s while posting a 39-inch vertical jump and putting up 29 reps on the bench press. By all accounts, these would be excellent marks for the NFL hopeful.
Following the draft, Tucker packed his bags for Tampa Bay. Much to the chagrin of Rachaad White truthers, if all goes well for Tucker, it’s possible he sees a role as early as Week 1.
I am #PL34SED to be a Buccaneer! pic.twitter.com/xro9Y0PTqB
— Sean Tucker (@seantucker2020) April 30, 2023
The Buccaneers have arguably the most underwhelming backfield in the NFL and did absolutely nothing to address it in the draft. Behind White is recent NFL journeyman Chase Edmonds, along with Patrick Laird and the failed Ke’Shawn Vaughn experiment.
To date, the only other running back signed by the Bucs this offseason was fellow UDFA Ronnie Brown out of Shepherd University.
Tucker stands to lose work to an NFL vet not currently on the roster, but until that happens, it’s hard to not get excited about him. In addition to his strong workout metrics, his body of work includes a respectable 3.51 YCO/ATT, and a missed tackles forced rate of 23.6 percent. His advanced metrics won’t blow anybody away, but they shouldn’t discourage dynasty leaguers from taking a flier on him late in their rookie drafts.
