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Four offenses to target for fantasy football stacks

Berry names Murray his 2024 'Ride or Die' pick
Matthew Berry reveals his highly-anticipated 2024 fantasy football 'Ride or Die' pick with Jay Croucher and Connor Rogers on the Fantasy Football Happy Hour.

For the uninitiated, stacking is when you take multiple players from the same team because their outcomes are correlated. CeeDee Lamb needs Dak Prescott to throw for 4,500 yards to have a top-three fantasy season. Lamar Jackson had an MVP season? You’ll never believe it but his rookie receiver easily out-performed expectations. Whether you’re trying to win a 12-person home league or take down the Lhasa Apso VII, you want clear paths to the top of the standings. Stacking a team or even multiple teams is an easy way to get there.

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Baltimore Ravens

Getting the full Ravens stack on Underdog and DraftKings is hard, but in home leagues, this is a layup. All of the ADPs I’ll reference are from FantasyLife’s ADP tool. On the redraft sites, Lamar Jackson goes at the 3/4 turn. If you pick in the later half of the draft, you can get Jackson in the third then Mark Andrews in the fourth. Zay Flowers then has an ADP outside the top 60 picks on Yahoo and ESPN. The stack builds itself and you can even tack on Rashod Bateman at the end if you like cutting your final pick a few weeks into the season.

Despite having a two-time MVP quarterback under center, stacking the Ravens won’t be popular, largely because of the team’s lack of passing volume. Only one offense—the 49ers—threw the ball less often than the Ravens. But Baltimore had the philosophy of a team that could pass far more often. They were 11th in pass rate over expected and 22nd in pass rate on first downs. Baltimore ranked bottom-six in pace and pass rate when winning by more than one score. They improved to 24th and 25th in both categories in one-possession scenarios. The Ravens only ran 11 plays in the regular season while playing with a deficit of over eight points. That easily ranked last in the league. The one game they trailed by that much for more than a drive was in the playoffs and OC Todd Monken dialed up an absurdly fast and pass-heavy script.

Baltimore’s defense ranked seventh-best in points per game allowed…over the past decade. Elite defensive production is hard to replicate (see: Eagles, Philadelphia) and the Ravens’ unit will regress to something worse than easily the best in the NFL. If the Ravens are forced to pass more, Jackson, Andrews, and Flowers can all be major hits.

Arizona Cardinals

The downside of taking a stack with an elite passer in home leagues is that the quarterback tends to be priced well beyond their production. For reference, Underdog drafters take Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson over a round later than their redraft compatriots. C.J. Stroud goes two rounds later. You’re paying a premium at quarterback in a format that gives you access to the waiver wire. The first quarterback who goes later on any of the redraft sites than he does on Underdog is Kyler Murray. In his first season under Jonathan Gannon while coming off a torn ACL, Murray finished as the QB9 in points per game. That was the same finish as his 2022 season. Murray posted top-six numbers in the previous two years. He is currently drafted anywhere from QB7 to QB10 depending on the site. Murray is being drafted at his floor and, of course, gets the Ride or Die bump from Matthew Berry.

The Cardinals are also an easy team to identify the players you want to stack. Marvin Harrison Jr. is one of the best wide receiver prospects of the past decade and will dominate the targets as a rookie. Trey McBride is coming off an elite second-year breakout. His season ranks 11th in targets per route and 25th in yards per route run among tight ends over the past decade (min. 400 routes).

In Best Ball, if you’re looking for a final-round stacking partner with Kyler, don’t overlook Greg Dortch. The Cardinals’ starting slot receiver has stepped up when called upon. In 10 career games with a snap share over 70 percent, Dortch has averaged 6.1 receptions for 64 yards.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos are one of the easiest offenses in the league to stack. Given the low expectations for the Denver offense, you’d expect them to be cheap, but the prices on the top options are so low that only the volume is priced in. Any semblance of upside has been written off despite this team having a rookie quarterback and an all-time great offensive head coach. Courtland Sutton is the second-cheapest WR1 (on his own team) and Javonte Williams is one of the five most affordable RB1s.

Sutton finished the 2023 season ranked 27th in air yards share and 40th in target share. He also dominated the high-value looks, targets into the end zone or starting at the red zone. The Broncos have since traded his biggest competition for targets, Jerry Jeudy. Going as the WR48 in Best Ball drafts, Sutton is priced near his floor.

Stacking a running back with your quarterback is less intuitive but still surprisingly valuable. Even if the quarterbacks’ points aren’t directly shared by the running back, an improved offensive environment is good for everyone involved. A rising tide lifts all boats. Javonte Williams ranked 17th in rush attempts last coming off a multi-ligament knee injury and even missed one game. Now Payton is talking about him remaking his body ahead of the 2024 season.

Williams isn’t the only running back worth targeting either. Payton’s running backs as a collective have averaged 160 targets per season over his past 10 seasons as a head coach. He never ranked lower than fifth in team running back targets over that stretch. Jaleel McLaughlin finished his rookie season fifth in yards per route run (1.6) and third in PFF receiving grade (85.2). With Samaje Perine off the roster, it’s Pierre Thomas SZN for McLaughlin.

Tim Patrick being cut puts second-year wideout Marvin Mims back on the menu as a final-round stack with Nix. Mims flashed big-play potential as a rookie and is once again penciled in for a starting role.

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LA Chargers

It’s not sexy, but Justin Herbert—and his wide receiver by extension—is a clear value. Since entering the NFL, Herbert ranks eighth in in PFF passing grade and 11th in EPA per play (min. 1,000 dropbacks). He has converted those fancy stats into the sixth-highest points per-game average over that span. Fantasy drafters are letting a top-10 talent fall deep into QB2 territory because of real but likely overblown concerns about how often the team will run and who Herbert will be throwing to.

Of course the Chargers will run the ball. A lot. But when Greg Roman and Jim Harbaugh were together in San Francisco, the 49ers operated a juggernaut defense paired with average quarterback talent. Harbaugh’s 49ers were top-five in yards allowed in all four of his seasons as the head coach. They were top-three in points allowed in all but one season. The fourth campaign was a top-10 outing as well. During this stretch, the offense posted a -2% pass rate over expected.

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That’s a perfectly average showing. It would have tied the team for 16th in the league last year. The same holds true for their early-down pass rate. In San Francisco, Roman ranked 22nd in pass percentage on first and second down when excluding garbage time (either team below 10 percent win probability). Their 50 percent pass rate would stack up slightly worse in today’s NFL, but it would still tie them for 24th last year.

Last year, the Chargers ranked 28th in yards allowed and 24th in points allowed. That will improve drastically under new management, but I’d bet against them turning into a top-five defense overnight.

There are unknowns in the receiver room, but that is more than priced in by the fantasy market. Ladd McConkey is the third-cheapest WR1. He averaged a stellar 3.3 yards per route run in his final season at Georgia and registered a 9.34 RAS at the combine.

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McConkey is one of fewer than 15 Power Five receivers to average over 2.4 yards per route run throughout his career before being drafted inside the top 40. His profile coming out of Georgia was far from spotless, but the combination of elite efficiency and 90th-percentile athleticism gives him a legitimate ceiling at the NFL level.

Joshua Palmer, on the other hand, might just be good already. His game hit a new level after Mike Williams went down in Week 3. From then onward, Palmer averaged 4.3 receptions for 71 yards and topped two yards per route. Palmer isn’t No. 1 receiver material but is an underrated option on an offense searching for competent players.

I respect you too much to pitch a Quentin Johnston bounceback. I will, however, put Brenden Rice on your radar. Rice posted two seasons with a College Dominator of 29 percent and averaged 2.8 yards per route run as a senior at USC. If you’re looking for a player who won’t even be taken in many Best Ball drafts, Rice is one of the best “scroll down” picks on the board.