Arizona Cardinals
Trey McBride finished second among tight ends in targets (nine).
He also finished second in:
- First-read targets (six)
- Target share (30 percent)
- Air yards share (39 percent)
McBride played an elite role in Week 1 but PFF deemed just 56 percent of his targets as catchable. Better days are ahead for him as long as Kyler Murray starts playing better.
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Atlanta Falcons
Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Kyle Pitts all ran 100 percent of the Falcons’ routes.
Here’s the kicker: Ray-Ray McCloud saw twice as many targets as any of them on nine fewer routes. Kirk Cousins struggled in his Atlanta debut, struggling to put any speed behind the football on far too many throws. The route rates for Atlanta’s top pass-catchers were all promising, but we need to see more from Cousins or Michael Penix may end up making an early debut.
Baltimore Ravens
Justice Hill led all running backs in targets (eight)
Hill out-snapped Derrick Henry 43-37 and ran 28 routes compared to Henry’s 14. We saw this same dynamic play out between Henry and Tyjae Spears in Tennessee last year. On the other hand, even in a down year for his lofty standards, Henry still dominated in the Titans’ six wins.
Luckily for Henry, he will be favored in far more games with Baltimore. The Ravens are 9.5-point favorites against the Raiders this week. Big dog gonna eat.
If you were looking for Isaiah Likely stats, check out my Week 2 Waiver Wire column.
Buffalo Bills
Keon Coleman led the Bills with 27 routes
He ran a route on 90 percent of Josh Allen’s dropbacks. No Buffalo receiver, including Coleman, separated themselves as the clear top target in Week 1. However, if the unknown rookie is running the most routes and his quarterback is Josh Allen, he strikes me as a clear buy.
Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young ranks last in the NFL in yards per pass attempt (min. 300 attempts) since entering the league
Young’s 5.5 YPA is nearly half a yard lower than the next worst quarterback, Josh Dobbs, at 5.9. Only Zach Wilson has a worse EPA per play. Young turned 30 attempts into 161 yards and two interceptions versus the Saints in Week 1. He didn’t appear to have made any improvements since his rookie season.
Chicago Bears
Keenan Allen led the Bears with a 33 percent target share and 50 percent of their air yards
This shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. Allen led the NFL in receptions per game and finished fourth in yards per game in 2023. Rome Odunze suffered an MCL injury and his status for Week 2 is up in the air. Narrowing the target tree to DJ Moore and Allen should lock both in as top-end volume earners. Now Caleb Williams just needs to figure things out.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals led the NFL in pass rate over expected (+9.4 percent)
Per Kevin Cole, that was 4.5 percent higher than any other team. Joe Burrow was only pressured on 22.9 percent of his dropbacks and Zac Taylor let him sling it. So he scored a lot of fantasy points…right? Not exactly. Not at all, in fact. He threw for 164 scoreless yards. The good news is that all the pieces were in place for Burrow and the entire passing attack to have a great day. A rocky offseason for Ja’Marr Chase and no Tee Higgins are the easy reasons to point to when explaining Cincinnati’s Week 1 flop. I’ll be more concerned if this continues beyond their Week 2 matchup with Kansas City.
Cleveland Browns
It’s been 1,347 days since Deshaun Watson threw for 300 yards in a game
Much like Bryce Young and the Panthers, Cleveland was desperate to see any kind of progress from Watson. Instead, Watson threw for 169 yards on 45 attempts. He scored once but was intercepted twice and took six sacks. Since joining the Browns in 2022, Watson ranks 43rd out of 48 quarterbacks with 300 dropbacks in EPA per play. We’ll be seeing Jameis Winston at some point this year.
Dallas Cowboys
Ezekiel Elliott saw two more carries and one more target than Rico Dowdle
Zeke was on the field for half of the Cowboys’ snaps while Dowdle earned 45 percent of the reps. He also ran just one more route than his backfield mate. Elliott has a minor edge over Dowdle for now, though both backs are viable RB3 options.
Denver Broncos
Bo Nix became the sixth quarterback in NFL history to throw more than 40 times and gain fewer than 140 yards.
Nearly every criticism of Nix as a prospect was on full display in his debut. He went 1-of-3 on his deep attempts with an interception and 1-of-8 on intermediate attempts with another pick. The Broncos were billed as a PPR scam machine in the offseason because of Nix. They were certainly some kind of scam.
Detroit Lions
Jameson Williams ran a route on 94 percent of Jared Goff’s dropbacks.
Williams posted a receiving line of 5/121/1 and added a carry for 13 yards. More importantly, he was a featured weapon in the passing attack instead of an occasional deep threat. He was the recipient of five first-read targets and accounted for 30 percent of the team’s total targets. Jamo also logged a comical 65 percent air yards share. This is breakout levels of usage.
Green Bay Packers
Malik Willis has a 14.1 percent career sack rate and a 33 percent pressure-to-sack rate.
Those marks are both the second-worst in the NFL over the past three seasons on admittedly low sample thresholds. Though, there’s a reason the sample on him is so low. Willis, who is expected to start for the Packers this week while Jordan Love recovers from an MCL sprain, is not a functional NFL quarterback. The Packers might challenge Arthur Smith for the league’s most run-heavy approach until Love returns.
Houston Texans
Tank Dell ran a route on 87 percent of the Texans’ dropbacks
Dell ran one more route than Nico Collins and one fewer than Stefon Diggs. He earned a 23 percent target share and a 44 percent air yards share. In the words (word) of Aaron Rodgers, “Relax.”
Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Richardson had the highest single-game aDOT (18.6) since 2021.
Richardson completed three passes of 50+ yards, two of which went to Alec Pierce. His 23.6 yards per completion is the highest single-game mark (min. 15 attempts) since 2014. While Pierce and Ashton Dulin were on the receiving end of his missiles in Week 1, Adonai Mitchell’s time is coming.
AD Mitchell was *3* better balls away from having a pretty awesome NFL debut pic.twitter.com/vrZy5cVkUy
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 9, 2024
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tank Bigsby set a career-high in carries (12)
He saw exactly as many carries as Travis Etienne. Doug Pederson told us all summer about his desire to lighten Etienne’s workload.
#Jaguars HC Doug Pederson on Tank Bigsby:
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) July 29, 2024
“I think Tank has a bigger role this year, going into Year 2. It’s something that we’ve been looking at. We definitely know we gotta take a little bit off of Travis [Etienne] and keep him healthy for an entire season… I think Tank’s… pic.twitter.com/7FTsctuKZo
While a true carry split likely wasn’t what Pederson was referring to, we shouldn’t expect Etienne to dominate the touches anymore. We also can’t expect him to be more efficient than Bigsby, who buried him in yards after contact, missed tackles forced, and rush yards over expected in Week 1.
Kansas City Chiefs
Rashee Rice saw 39 percent of the Chiefs’ first-read targets.
Rice was on the receiving end of seven first-read looks. That tied his career-high in first-read targets. Rice caught seven passes in total for 103 yards in Week 1. He was targeted on 38 percent of his routes. These are all elite, WR1 numbers.
Las Vegas Raiders
Brock Bowers ran 62.5 percent of his routes from the slot
Bowers was Gardner Minshew’s first read on four targets, tying Jakobi Meyers and Davante Adams. He led the team with seven targets in total and ran a route on 78 percent of the team’s passing plays. For reference, Sam LaPorta had a route rate of 72 percent in his debut game. Given the dismal state of the tight end position, Bowers is a clear TE1.
Los Angeles Chargers
Ladd McConkey earned a 28 percent target share
McConkey’s route rate of 76 percent is solid and even better when considering it was his first NFL game. He also took the field for a handful of snaps in 12-personnel looks. Most importantly, Justin Herbert peppered him with targets when he was out there. He was targeted on 32 percent of his routes. That was the eighth-highest rate among receivers with at least 20 routes.
Los Angeles Rams
Cooper Kupp became the 11th player in NFL history to see 20+ in targets in multiple games.
Puka Nacua went down early with a knee injury and is now on injured reserve. He will miss at least four games. Kupp was targeted 21 times in a narrow loss to the Lions. Of his 21 looks, 19 were of the first-read variety. As soon as Nacua got hurt Matthew Stafford chose to make the whole plan out of Kupp.
Miami Dolphins
De’Von Achane ran 10 routes from the slot
He is one of just under 50 running backs over the past decade to get 10 or more slot routes in a game. Achane, of course, made the most of his unique role with seven receptions for 76 yards. He also saw the Dolphins’ only goal line carry. Achane is questionable for Week 2 while Raheem Mostert has already been ruled out. If Achane can stay “healthy”, his Swiss Army Knife role will lock him in as an RB1.
Minnesota Vikings
Sam Darnold posted his best PFF passing grade (86.2) since 2018.
Darnold had the highest CPOE of any quarterback in Week 1 and finished top-five in EPA per play. As expected, Kevin O’Connell wasn’t afraid to dial up the pass, registering one of the eight positive PROEs of Week 1.
Only 8 of 32 teams had a positive Pass Rate Over Expectation in Week 1.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 10, 2024
I don't expect that to hold, but talked about it on Solo Pod. If there's a macro pendulum swing back to running the ball, it will have impact on optimal strategy of all fantasy formats. pic.twitter.com/ILQMyJtHP4
With Jordan Addison banged up, Justin Jefferson is a good bet to lead the NFL in target share for the foreseeable future. Jalen Nailor is also on the FLEX radar as the team’s WR2.
New England Patriots
Rhamondre Stevenson earned more touches in Week 1 (28) than he did in any game last year
Stevenson’s 2023 high-water mark was 26 touches. He rushed 25 times for 120 yards and a touchdown while adding three short receptions on Sunday. He was on the field for 80 percent of the Patriots’ snaps including 77 percent of their long down and distance reps. Antonio Gibson appears to be strictly a backup while Stevenson is a true workhorse.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints led the NFL in pre-snap motion on passing plays
Klint Kubiak moved someone before the snap on 85 percent of Derek Carr’s dropbacks. He also dialed up play-action at the third-highest rate. Carr, in turn, finished top-five in EPA per play and CPOE. Chris Olave inexplicably went for 11 yards on two grabs despite the Saints putting up 47 points. Given the Saints’ emergence as a forward-thinking offense, I’m buying low on Olave.
New York Giants
Theo Johnson ran the second-most routes (38) among tight ends
Johnson’s routes were inflated because of how often the Giants passed, but he still managed a 76 percent route rate while splitting his time between an inline role and the slot. Johnson would be a clear breakout candidate if he played on a team that could throw the football. That, unfortunately, doesn’t appear to be the case.
New York Jets
Allen Lazard ran every route for the Jets and saw 48 percent of the team’s air yards
I have no further analysis to add. Lazard was brought in as part of the Aaron Rodgers entourage last year. He was so useless that the team made him a healthy scratch at the end of the season. Now, with his buddy back under center, he appears to be a functional receiver once again. Lazard posted a 6/89/2 line. His second touchdown came from Tyrod Taylor in garbage time, but the first was on a classic Rodgers free play.
Philadelphia Eagles
DeVonta Smith ran 71 percent of his routes from the slot
That was easily a career-high for the fourth-year receiver. Smith has averaged an elite 2.4 yards per route run from the slot throughout his career compared to 1.6 from out wide. His targets per route run goes from .18 to .25 when moving into the slot. A.J. Brown still saw more targets and held an absurd air yards advantage over Smith, but the change could take some volume away from Dallas Goedert and move it toward Smith in the slot.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers posted a -11.5 percent pass rate over expected.
There’s also this:
The Steelers ran 22 plays out of 13 or 14 personnel yesterday, which was the most for a team in a game in the last 3 seasons.
— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) September 9, 2024
Arthur Smith is in his bag.
San Francisco 49ers
Jordan Mason had the second-most carries (28) and yards (147) in Week 1
Mason dominated the 49ers’ running back opportunities, seeing 78 percent of the team’s carries while running a route on 65 percent of Brock Purdy’s dropbacks. He’s getting RB1 usage until Christian McCaffrey returns, which doesn’t appear to be Week 2.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks were in 11-personnel on 83 percent of their passing plays
That number was 73 percent last year. Jaxon Smith-Njigba also got some routes when the team moved into 12-personnel. The expanded role boosted his route rate to 89 percent which is a career-high for the young receiver.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield led all quarterbacks in EPA per dropback (.69)
The No. 2 quarterback in EPA per dropback was Josh Allen at .49. Needless to say, this was a phenomenal outing from Mayfield. It’s a one-game sample, but Mayfield’s first game without quarterback guru Dave Canales on the headset went swimmingly. The Bucs also had a clear three-receiver set of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and rookie Jalen McMillan. McMillan ran a route on 88 percent of the Bucs’ passing plays and accounted for a third of the team’s air yards. He is a sneaky add in deeper leagues.
Tennessee Titans
Tony Pollard earned 70 percent of the Titans’ carries
Titans coach Brian Callahan told us all summer that Pollard and Tyjae Spears were interchangeable. That largely wasn’t the case in Week 1. Pollard out-carried Spears 16-4. On the bright side, both backs saw four targets, Spears ran more routes, and he was on the field for 44 percent of Tennessee’s snaps. Callahan also talked about getting Spears more involved going forward.
Callahan on RB distribution of carries: Tony Pollard ran the ball well. We'd like to get Tyjae Spears involved more. I'd like that to be more even, he said@Titans
— Jim Wyatt (@jwyattsports) September 9, 2024
Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels’ 28.2 fantasy points were the second-most all-time for a quarterback debut
Daniels’ passing numbers were…underwhelming. He threw for 184 scoreless yards. However, that doesn’t matter when you run 16 times for 88 yards and two touchdowns. Unsurprisingly, Daniels was a scrambling savant. Seven of his rushes were on scrambles and they accounted for 77 yards. He also got work at the goal line, taking three inside-the-five carries, two of which resulted in touchdowns. Daniels doesn’t need to be even a good passer as long as he runs that often, especially near the end zone.