Kyle Dvorchak breaks down the most important fantasy football stat that defined each NFL team in Week 12.
Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray ranks 37th in the NFL in completion rate on throws 10+ yards downfield.
Murray has completed just 35 percent of his intermediate and deep throws. That is worse than Bryce Young, Zach Wilson, and Mac Jones. Murray is almost certainly a better quarterback than those three players, so I expect his completion rate on these throws to rise over the remainder of the season. However, it’s obviously a concern for Murray and worth watching in the coming weeks.
Atlanta Falcons
Kyle Pitts set season-lows in target share (11 percent) and air yards share (15 percent).
It’s over. Pitts is a mid-range TE2 after seeing declining usage throughout the year.
Baltimore Ravens
Keaton Mitchell set a season-high in snap share (46 percent).
Mitchell has set a season-high in snap share in every week of his career. The same can be said of his route rate. Mitchell touched the ball 11 times for 81 yards in Week 12. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken said after the game that the team is getting more comfortable using Mitchell. With the Ravens’ bye coming this week, it’s possible they design even more looks for him during their extra week of prep.
Buffalo Bills
Stefon Diggs went the entire month of November without earning a target share over 30 percent.
That’s a high bar to clear, but it’s also a number he reached six times over the first eight weeks of the season. In turn, Dalton Kincaid has one game over a 30 percent target share in the past four weeks and has seen exactly as many targets as Diggs. The Bills’ offense remains one of the best in the league and Diggs is still the top target-earner, but he went from being a top-five fantasy receiver in the first two months of the season to a back-end WR1 over the past month.
Carolina Panthers
Chuba Hubbard played on 64 percent of the Panthers’ snaps.
Hubbard’s role has been malleable in recent weeks. The Panthers are still trying to figure out what they want to do with Miles Sanders and the $8.4 million dead cap hit remaining on his contract after 2023. That meant playing him more often on passing downs for two weeks, but the Panthers finally nixed that and let Hubbard run a route on 68 percent of Bryce Young’s dropbacks in Week 12, a season-high for him. Sanders still saw 15 carries, but Hubbard earned 19 touches and scored the team’s only touchdown.
Chicago Bears
Roschon Johnson played on 75 percent of the Bears’ snaps.
Johnson rushed 10 times for 35 yards but also added five catches for 45 yards to the box score. He out-touched Khalil Herbert 15-8. Though it’s only one game, the fourth-round rookie appears to have taken control of the Chicago backfield.
Cincinnati Bengals
Ja’Marr Chase is averaging 10.7 PPR points per game in two Jake Browning appearances.
Browning took over before halftime two weeks ago. The offense did nothing until Chase snagged a garbage-time touchdown. He hit 81 yards in Week 12 but wasn’t as fortunate in the scoring section of his box score.
As good as Chase is, it’s hard to view him as a fantasy WR1 with Browing under center.
Cleveland Browns
Jerome Ford is averaging 14.5 carries and five targets per game over the past four weeks.
Ford got up to season-highs in snap share (70 percent) and route rate (74 percent). He still hasn’t put Kareem Hunt away at the goal line, but his role is now good for nearly 20 touches a game.
Dallas Cowboys
Brandin Cooks is averaging 15 PPR points per game over his past six appearances.
The bulk of Cooks’ fantasy output has come from four touchdowns and an elite, 15.8 yards per catch. His target share sits at a measly 13 percent over those six games. However, he’s running a route on 75 percent of the passing plays for the hottest offense in football. It shouldn’t be a surprise to see him run hot as well.
Denver Broncos
Jerry Jeudy does not have a single WR2 performance this year.
It’s all Courtland Sutton in Denver. When it isn’t, Russell Wilson isn’t looking to Jeudy or Marvin Mims. He is checking it down to his running backs. No team has more running back targets than the Broncos this season.
Detroit Lions
Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery have both finished as top-24 running backs in each of the past three weeks.
Detroit has doubled down on their rushing attack with both Gibbs and Montgomery healthy. In their past three games, the Lions have a negative six percent pass rate over expected.
Montgomery has 13.7 touches per game over that stretch while Gibbs is at 15.3 on the back of a strong role through the air.
Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love has seven touchdowns and two interceptions over his past three games.
Love tossed seven touchdowns and one interception in his first three games of the year before dropping a 5:7 touchdown to interception ratio over his next five appearances. That brings us to his most recent hot streak. After all of the ups and downs, Love ranks 11th in EPA per dropback.
Houston Texans
Devin Singletary played on 81 percent of the Texans’ snaps.
Dameon Pierce was back for Week 12. He earned five carries to Singletary’s six but Singletary still out-touched him 12-6. Pierce is exclusively a backup and can be dropped in season-long formats.
Indianapolis Colts
Josh Downs earned a 32 percent target share.
He was on the field for 80 percent of Gardner Minshew’s dropbacks. Banged up in recent weeks, Downs had logged target shares of five and 13 percent entering Week 12. His route rate was at 30 percent in those contests. Downs now appears to be fully recovered from his knee injury and is back on the WR2 periphery.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Travis Etienne’s route rate fell below 50 percent for the first time this year.
In turn, D’Ernest Johnson ran a route on 40 percent of Trevor Lawrence’s dropbacks. Etienne also set a season-low in snap share because of Johnson’s role on passing downs. Johnson has 21 touches for 155 yards over the past three weeks, with most of the yardage coming from a few long receptions.
Kansas City Chiefs
Rashee Rice set career-highs in route rate (68 percent), target share (32 percent), and fantasy points (24.7).
Rice turned 10 targets into eight catches for 107 yards and a score. It was the first 100-yard game for a Kansas City receiver this year. His route rate still has room to grow, but this outing should prove to Andy Reid and Co. that he is the best receiver on the roster by a country mile.
Las Vegas Raiders
Aidan O’Connell is 30th in adjusted yards per attempt and 29th in EPA per play.
O’Connell has yet to throw multiple touchdowns in a game and has one week over 250 passing yards. Davante Adams is dominating the team’s targets once again, but when someone else steals a touchdown like Jakobi Meyers did in Week 12, it will be nearly impossible for Adams to put up elite fantasy numbers.
Los Angeles Chargers
Quentin Johnston ran a route on 39 percent of Justin Herbert’s dropbacks.
Johnston had run a route on 90 percent of the Chargers’ passing plays over his previous three games. He was checked by the medical staff for a rib injury in Week 12 and cleared to return during the game. Brandon Staley told reporters after the game that the decision to keep Johnston on the sidelines was made by the coaching staff. The Chargers appear to be done with their first-round pick.
Los Angeles Rams
Kyren Williams is the RB2 by points per game.
Williams is averaging 21.3 fantasy points per game. He returned to the lineup in Week 12 and went for 204 scrimmage yards plus a pair of touchdowns on 22 touches. Williams gets a tough matchup versus the Browns this week but will still rank as an RB1.
Miami Dolphins
Jeff Wilson doubled his season-high in touches (14).
Wilson was a healthy scratch two weeks ago but got called back into action on Black Friday with De’Von Achane sidelined. The Dolphins took a run-heavy approach against a Jets team that proved incapable of putting points on the board, resulting in 33 carries for the Miami backfield. Raheem Mostert earned 20 attempts. Wilson will have RB3 potential if Achane misses Week 13.
Minnesota Vikings
Joshua Dobbs is second in the NFL in PFF’s turnover-worthy plays.
Dobbs has both the most fumbles and fumbles lost this year. He is also tied for fourth in interceptions thrown. Half of his interceptions and nearly half of his fumbles have come in Minnesota. Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell did not commit to Dobbs as the team’s starter following their Week 12 loss to the Bears.
New England Patriots
Rhamondre Stevenson has earned season-highs in carries in back-to-back games.
Stevenson earned 20 totes in Week 10. Then, coming out of the Pats’ Week 11 bye, he carried the ball 21 times for 98 yards and a touchdown. Stevenson set season-highs in snap share and carry share in Week 12 as well. After spending most of the season in an ugly committee with Ezekiel Elliott, Stevenson appears to have pulled away from the veteran runner.
New Orleans Saints
A.T. Perry ran a route on 80 percent of Derek Carr’s dropbacks.
Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave both left Week 12 with injuries. Shaheed is dealing with a hamstring issue while Olave has a concussion. Both players are at risk of missing Week 13. Perry could be the next man up to be on the receiving end of Carr’s many prayer yards.
Rookie WR A.T. Perry led all Saints skill position players with 56 snaps last week.
— Zachary Krueger (@ZK_FFB) November 13, 2023
Nearly 6'5"/200 pounds, Perry turned in an impressive combine and totaled 152-2389-26 in his final two years at Wake Forest. He's an older rookie at 24, but the size/speed intrigues me. https://t.co/rsdPrXGIlR pic.twitter.com/QVxt9qOQsC
New York Giants
Jalin Hyatt has accounted for over half of the Giants’ air yards twice in the past four weeks.
Hyatt’s 24.9 aDOT is over six yards higher than any other player with at least 25 targets. He finally converted on those air yards for 109 real yards on five receptions versus the Patriots.
New York Jets
Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall accounted for half of Tim Boyle’s targets.
The good news is that Boyle knows who to get the ball to. Wilson was targeted 10 times while Hall earned nine looks through the air. No other Jet saw more than four targets. The bad news is that, as expected, Boyle was just as bad as Zach Wilson, if not worse. He averaged 4.7 yards per attempt, threw two interceptions, and was sacked seven times.
Philadelphia Eagles
DeVonta Smith has a 35 percent target share and a 60 percent air yards share with Dallas Goedert out.
Smith has gained an additional 2.6 fantasy points per game when Goedert has been out over the past two seasons. That is greatly influenced by his 6.8-point boost in two games without Goedert this year.
Pittsburgh Steelers
George Pickens has averaged 7.2 PPR points per game since Week 8.
Diontae Johnson returned to the lineup in Week 7 and Pickens put together a strong fantasy performance, giving his backers some hope that he could keep posting strong numbers even with Johnson healthy. That hope has since been dashed. Pickens has a 17 percent target share over his past five games and is being targeted on just 15 percent of his routes.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers lead the NFL in 30-point games.
They are tied with the Cowboys in 30-point games this year. San Francisco also leads the NFL in games with 400 or more yards on offense. They are tied with the Dolphins and Lions at five such games. This is an offense to keep targeting from a fantasy perspective, even if it means eating some down weeks from a player like George Kittle.
Seattle Seahawks
Zach Charbonnet was on the field for 87 percent of the Seahawks’ snaps.
That’s a higher snap share than Ken Walker has earned in any game this year. Charbonnet also earned a 78 percent carry share and ran a route on 72 percent of Geno Smith’s dropbacks. He will rank as an RB1 any time Walker is sidelined. That could be the case again in Week 13.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Evans ranks dead last in the NFL in red zone catch rate (27.3 percent).
That’s among players with more than 10 red zone targets. Chris Godwin is second-to-last at a red zone catch rate of 35.7 percent. Both players are near the bottom of the league in catchable target rate in the red zone, according to PFF.
Tennessee Titans
Derrick Henry has been held under 80 rushing yards in four straight games.
The last time that happened was in 2018. Henry got home versus a soft Carolina defense with two rushing touchdowns in Week 12, but it was another quiet outing from him in terms of yardage. He ran 18 times for 76 yards.
Washington Commanders
Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson both have more 100-yard games than Terry McLaurin this year.
Jamison Crowder and Logan Thomas have more 20-point games in PPR scoring. McLaurin is 18th in the NFL in receptions and 25th in receiving yards. The biggest issues are that he only has two touchdowns and his yards per target (7.2) is at a career low. Despite Washington’s absurd pass volume, McLaurin is on pace for a wildly disappointing season.
