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Arizona Cardinals
Trey McBride leads all tight ends in targets per route run (.26) and target share at 26 percent
McBride is also 12th in yards per route run and eighth in PFF’s receiving grade. He’s somewhere between good and great in most of the spreadsheets. He is currently the TE10 in fantasy points and the TE7 in fantasy points per game. McBride is a top-three tight end under the hood and I fully expect his fantasy output to align with that in the coming weeks.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have a +5% pass rate over expected over the past two weeks
They registered a -9% PROE over the first three weeks. Kirk Cousins didn’t throw 30 passes in any of his first three games as a Falcon. He hit 35 in Week 4 and ballooned to 58 attempts in Atlanta’s overtime thriller with the Bucs.
Cousins is also attempting intermediate and deep throws at a higher rate while finding his first read more often, all good developments for his and the rest of the offense’s outlooks.
Baltimore Ravens
Mark Andrews ran a route on 47 percent of Lamar Jackson’s dropbacks
Andrews caught four balls for 55 yards after being held without a catch in back-to-back weeks. While his stat line was a sight for sore eyes, he wasn’t running a route on over half of Jackson’s dropbacks for the third game in a row. Week 5 was a far more pass-heavy script for Baltimore compared to their previous two games and Andrews took advantage of it, but he was still a part-time player. That’s just who he is now.
Buffalo Bills
James Cook ran a route on 36 percent of the Bills’ dropbacks
That’s Cook’s lowest route rate since Week 12 of last year. He still managed two catches on three targets and dominated the carries, but the Bills used Ty Johnson as their top back on passing downs for the first time. Luckily for Cook, the Bills aren’t all that interested in throwing the football.
Carolina Panthers
Chuba Hubbard leads all running backs in success rate (57.6 percent)
Hubbard is also top-five in yards after contact per carry (3.87) and rush yards over expected per attempt (1.75). He has fully shut Miles Sanders out of the lineup and is making it hard for Dave Canales to move on from him once Jonathon Brooks returns from the PUP list.
Chicago Bears
Caleb Williams averaged 11.9 adjusted yards per attempt
That is the 13th-best mark for a rookie quarterback (min. 25 attempts) since 2000. It was easily his best performance of the year by both the advanced metrics and the eye test. He threw for 304 yards and two scores on 29 attempts. Williams’ Week 5 was a massive step in the right direction.
Cincinnati Bengals
Tee Higgins has out-targeted Ja’Marr Chase 28-24 over the past three weeks
Higgins, operating farther downfield, has also seen 66 more air yards and two more end zone targets than Chase. Chase is the more talented player and should see more targets and score more fantasy points than Higgins over the course of the season. However, Higgins’ ability to earn high-value looks in droves has been on full display this year.
Cleveland Browns
Deshaun Watson is last in the NFL in EPA per dropback (min. 100 plays)
Watson is averaging a dreadful -.287 expected points added per play and is 29th out of 31 qualified quarterbacks in CPOE. Only Bryce Young and Zach Wilson have a lower EPA per play (min. 500 plays) since the Browns traded for Watson in 2022.
Dallas Cowboys
Rico Dowdle earned 20 carries for the first time in 1,821 days
Dowdle entered the NFL in 2020 and peaked at a dozen carries before Week 5. He only hit 20 carries three times in his final three seasons of college football at South Carolina. The Cowboys have been reluctant to hand him a high-usage role, but Ezekiel Elliott gave them no choice. Dowdle earned 67 percent of Dallas’s carries, pushed his route rate to 36 percent, and saw the team’s only goal line attempt last week.
Denver Broncos
Javonte Williams is seventh among running backs in targets (20)
Williams’ .23 targets per route run are the fifth-most among running backs (min. 100 snaps). He saw a measly two targets on a five percent target share in Week 1 and has taken off ever since. Over the past four weeks, Williams has averaged 4.5 targets and a 16 percent target share. He is running a route on just under half of Bo Nix’s dropbacks.
Detroit Lions
Sam LaPorta set a season-high in target share in Week 4 (21 percent)
He also saw 18 percent of the team’s first-read targets versus the Seahawks. LaPorta has been one of the many tight end busts of the first month of the season, but the Lions made an effort to get him more involved in the offense heading into their bye. With an extra week of prep, they may find even more ways to get the ball in his hands.
Green Bay Packers
Dontayvion Wicks has seen 40 percent of Green Bay’s air yards over the past two weeks
Wicks was targeted seven times in Week 5 but only caught two passes for 20 yards. He was the WR35 in expected fantasy points last week and is the WR12 in expected points over the past two weeks. We are holding the Wicks faith and rolling him out as a top-36 receiver in Week 6.
Houston Texans
Tank Dell is the only Houston receiver outside of Nico Collins with more than two deep targets
C.J. Stroud has thrown downfield to Dell four times. Stefon Diggs, who has played in one more game the Dell, only has two deep shots. Dell is also just two intermediate targets behind Diggs, who has seen 70 percent of his targets fewer than 10 yards from the line of scrimmage. Replacing Nico Collins will be a team effort, but Dell profiles as the type of player who can earn some of the chunk-play looks Collins was so good at earning.
Indianapolis Colts
Alec Pierce leads the NFL in yards per reception (28.3)
If you’re looking for stats on Joe Flacco or Josh Downs, check out my waiver wire article.
Pierce didn’t have a quarterback willing to push the ball downfield last year and it rendered him a non-factor in the Indy offense. That’s not the case this year. Anthony Richardson leads the NFL in deep throw rate and is fifth in intermediate throw rate. Joe Flacco is ninth and 15th in the two stats. Pierce has two 100-yard games and three touchdowns on the books already.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Brian Thomas Jr. recorded the sixth-fasted ball carrier speed over the past seven seasons
BTJ hit 22.15 MPH on this play.
Brian Thomas Jr. recorded a top speed of 22.15 MPH on this TD play.
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 6, 2024
The fastest ball carrier of the 2024 NFL season, according to @NextGenStats. pic.twitter.com/4ShU6WhUEc
Unsurprisingly, that’s the fastest time for a Jaguars player since Next Gen Stats began tracking player speed in 2018. Thomas ranks sixth in yards per route run and 15th in first downs per route. He is the real deal.
Las Vegas Raiders
Brock Bowers leads all tight ends in gains of 20+ yards
Bowers has five such plays, as does Dallas Goedert. The rookie also leads his position in targets, receptions, and yards. He trails only Dallas Goedert in yards per route run. Travis Kelce is the only tight end I would take over him in redraft and there isn’t anyone close to him at the position in dynasty value.
Los Angeles Chargers
Ladd McConkey has out-targeted Quentin Johnston 13-8 over their past two games
McConkey also has two end zone targets to Johnston’s one, despite the latter being considered the touchdown-scorer of the group. The rookie also has a three-target edge on first-read looks over that stretch. McConkey is making a push for the WR1 role.
New England Patriots
Antonio Gibson saw 33 percent of the Patriots’ carries
He had seen 29 percent of New England’s carries heading into Week 5. Gibson was announced as the starter over the weekend and did take the first snap, but it was largely a ceremonious title for him. Rhamondre Stevenson still saw the bulk of the carries, though Gibson set a season-high route rate (43 percent).
New Orleans Saints
Rashid Shaheed has six more targets than Chris Olave
Olave has 28 targets on the year, the same number as Alvin Kamara, while Shaheed has 34.
Other stats that Shahid has the edge over Olave in:
- Air yards - 598 vs. 289
- End zone targets - 4 vs. 2
- Expected points - 55.6 vs. 44.7
New York Giants
Tyrone Tracy Jr. has more carries of 25+ yards than Devin Singletary on 26 fewer attempts
Tracy got his first start in Week 5 and immediately made a case to be New York’s permanent starter, rushing for 129 yards on 18 attempts. He gained 47 yards over expected and has yet to lose a yard on a rush attempt this year.
New York Jets
The Jets are generating .3 yards before contact per rush attempt
Breece Hall has failed to gain a yard before contact on 39 percent of his rush attempts. Hall ranks 45th in explosive runs and has a negative rush yards over expected for the first time in his career. The Jets are 27th in EPA per rush attempt.
Philadelphia Eagles
Saquon Barkley has averaged 31.9 fantasy points in the Eagles’ two wins
His fantasy output falls to 14.1 points in two Philly losses.
The biggest difference in the splits is his touchdown output. All five of his end zone trips have come in Philadelphia wins. The Eagles are three-point favorites over the Browns this week.
Pittsburgh Steelers
George Pickens ran a route on 65 percent of Justin Fields’ dropbacks
That was easily the lowest route rate of Pickens’ career. Mike Tomlin had this to say on the matter after the game.
#Steelers HC Mike Tomlin on George Pickens playing just 59% of offensive snaps:
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) October 7, 2024
“We just wanted to kind of minimize his reps in an effort to get more productivity… He wasn’t less of a focal point, in terms of our intentions of what we were wanting to do offensively, but we did… pic.twitter.com/31SSwFNzhV
Pickens entered Week 5 with a 28 percent target share and a 33 percent first-read target share. Both of those numbers fell to 24 percent on Sunday. Tomlin’s comments about Pickens’ involvement in the offense not changing weren’t entirely accurate.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have scored on 40.9 percent of their red zone trips
That ranks 29th in the NFL this year. That number was 68 percent in 2023. Their 27.1 percent decrease is the third-largest after five weeks and is one of only three decreases over 16 percent. San Francisco is the only one of those three teams who have the same quarterback under center for a majority of their games compared to 2023. Kyle Shanahan’s teams have generally excelled in the red zone. Their red zone touchdown rates in the trio of seasons before 2023 were 52.8, 64.4, and 67.3 percent. They are a clear regression candidate based on their uncharacteristic struggles where it counts most.
Seattle Seahawks
Geno Smith is on pace for 496 rushing yards
Smith has 146 rushing yards and a touchdown through five games. That’s 10 yards fewer than he had throughout the entirety of the 2023 season with the same touchdown total. The increase in dropbacks has naturally upped his passing volume—he is on pace for nearly 5,000 yards—but has also given him a far better outlook as a runner.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Evans has a 29 percent target share over the past two weeks
Evans has been the recipient of 226 yards and four end zone targets during the stretch, supplanting Chris Godwin as the team’s WR1. Godwin has a 21 percent target share with 65 air yards and no end zone targets in his past two games.
Tennessee Titans
Tyjae Spears set a season-high in carry share (38 percent)
Tony Pollard rushed 22 times in Week 4 before the Titans’ bye, but Spears closed the gap with 15 attempts of his own. Both players saw two targets. The Titans abandoned the pass in their last game and registered a -20% pass rate over expected. Will Levis went down early versus Miami and did not return, but it’s reasonable to assume Brian Callahan will lean on his ground game whether he has Mason Rudolph or a banged-up Levis under center.
Washington Commanders
Terry McLaurin leads the NFL in air yards (422) over the past three weeks
McLaurin saw 110 air yards in the first two weeks combined. The Commanders were using him on short targets and screens instead of trying to spring him open on deep attempts. His usage has taken a sharp turn since then. He has topped 110 air yards in two games and came two yards short in the third. Now playing in his element, McLaurin has finished as a top-20 receiver in three consecutive weeks.
