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Arizona Cardinals
Michael Wilson has a 30 percent target share over the past two weeks
That is the same target share as Marvin Harrison Jr. We shouldn’t get too carried away with Wilson’s recent role change. Trey McBride suffered a concussion in Week 3 and missed last week’s game, leaving some extra volume on the table for the rest of the receivers. Still, Wilson peaked at a single-game target share of 21 percent last year. He has now crushed that number twice in the first month of his second season.
Atlanta Falcons
Tyler Allgeier out-carried Bijan Robinson for the first time since Week 15 of last year
Just when we thought we had put the specter of Arthur Smith’s player usage behind us, it came creeping back up when we least suspected it. Allgeier saw eight carries to Robinson’s seven. Robinson still led the way in snaps and routes, but there had hardly been a backfield split heading into Week 4. In the first three weeks of the season, Robinson had seen 66 precent of the Falcons’ rush attempts. Raheem Morris made it sound like Allgeier had a legitimate role after the game.
#Falcons HC Raheem Morris on the decision to roll with Tyler Allgeier:
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) September 29, 2024
“He got a couple runs in there and he was able to tote that thing, and you just keep feeding him. And he got a couple really good runs, he was critical for us. He’s the heavy back, and he was heavy for us… pic.twitter.com/BTwBcXTQsS
Baltimore Ravens
Derrick Henry leads the NFL in rush yards over expected (185)
Henry is second in RYOE per carry, trailing only Tank Bigsby. His current average of 2.4 would go down as a career-high dating back to 2018, when NFL Next Gen Stats started tracking the metric. Henry is on pace for 2,040 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns.
Buffalo Bills
Keon Coleman ranks 71st in targets per route run (min. 80 routes)
Coleman struggled to earn targets on a per-route basis in college and that has followed him to the NFL. The Bills have tried to get him involved. Coleman has seen 19 percent of the team’s first-read targets but hasn’t been able to earn looks on plays not designed for him. His target share on non-first-read throws is nine percent.
Carolina Panthers
Chuba Hubbard is averaging 25 PPR points per game with Andy Dalton under center
This deserves the “small sample” caveat. Hubbard has scored in both games with Dalton and the Panthers stopped splitting up their backfield the moment Dalton took over. Even with those notes, the contrast between his output with and without Bryce Young on the sticks is shocking.
Chicago Bears
D’Andre Swift saw a season-high in carries (16)
The reports of Swift’s demise were greatly exaggerated. He was able to earn 16 carries because the Bears took the lead in the second quarter and never relinquished it, putting game script on his side. His role, despite reports that the Bears were going to give Roschon Johnson more work, remained unchanged. Swift entered Sunday with a 61 percent snap share and a 57 percent carry share. He was on the field for 67 percent of the snaps in Week 4 and saw exactly 57 percent of the carries.
Cincinnati Bengals
Chase Brown earned a career-high in carries (15)
Brown split the Cincinnati backfield evenly with Zack Moss. Both backs saw 15 carries and Brown was finally involved at the goal line. He saw two carries inside the Panthers’ five-yard line. Those were his first end zone carries of the year. Brown has posted elite efficiency numbers this year and his team is rewarding him with more touches. He is pushing for an RB2 ranking going forward.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns are the only team to be held under 20 points in every game this year
The Browns’ offense is failing on all fronts. PFF has Deshaun Watson graded as their No. 17 passer. He is 28th in CPOE and 31st in EPA per play. Cleveland is third in the NFL in holding penalties. In turn, Watson leads the NFL in completions on plays that were called back and ranks second in passing yards lost to penalties. Cleveland is tied for a league-high in drops and their offensive line is one of the least healthy after a month of football. Watson is their biggest issue, but he’s far from their only one.
Dallas Cowboys
Jake Ferguson leads all tight ends in expected fantasy points per game
RotoViz has Ferguson at 12 expected points per game, putting him over 1.5 points ahead of any other tight end. He is averaging a respectable 10.6 PPR points per game but still has room to grow given his expectation. The Cowboys don’t have a viable WR2 option, forcing them to treat Ferguson as such.
Denver Broncos
Bo Nix is last in the NFL in yards per attempt (5.8) on throws beyond the line of scrimmage
This would make some sense if Nix was near the bottom of the league in aDOT even after removing throws behind the line of scrimmage. However, his aDOT on these throws ranks 18th out of 31 quarterbacks with at least 50 such attempts. Nix gave us a brief reprieve from his inability to complete basic passes in Week 3 before taking a massive step backward last week. He threw for 60 yards on 25 attempts and somehow still beat the Jets.
Green Bay Packers
Dontayvion Wicks has been targeted on 21 percent of his routes
Wicks ranks 11th in targets per route run (min. 80 routes). He is 32nd in air yards share (31 precent) despite sitting at 86th in route rate. All of this is to say that Wicks hasn’t been on the field much this year, but when he is, he earns high-value targets. His role is set to change with Christian Watson likely to miss multiple games with a high-ankle sprain.
Houston Texans
Nico Collins is on pace for 2,079 receiving yards
Collins is PFF’s No. 1 graded receiver and comes out as ESPN’s WR2 in their player tracking data. He’s also top-five in yards per route run and weighted opportunity rating. Collins is the current frontrunner to finish as the WR1 overall this year.
Indianapolis Colts
Joe Flacco was seventh in the NFL in EPA per play and eighth in CPOE in Week 4
Anthony Richardson left Week 4 with a hip injury and did not return. His status for Week 5 is unknown. Flacco averaged a blistering 321 passing yards per game in six starts for the Browns last year. He was more than willing to partake in a shootout and his Week 4 performance should give us some hope that his numbers with the Browns weren’t a fluke.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tank Bigsby leads the NFL in rush yards over expected per carry (3.9)
Bigsby also leads the league in yards after contact per attempt at 5.5. He has two games over 70 rushing yards already and his cut of the carries has topped 30 percent, a mark he never once hit as a rookie, twice this year.
Kansas City Chiefs
Kareem Hunt topped 15 touches for the first time since Week 6 of the 2021 season
The Chiefs signed Hunt to their practice squad 12 days before their Week 4 matchup with the Chargers. He was their lead back by the end of the game. Hunt rushed 14 times for 69 yards and added another two receptions on three targets. The rest of the Chiefs’ backfield combined for seven carries and one reception.
Las Vegas Raiders
Jakobi Meyers saw 57 percent of Gardner Minshew’s first-read targets
The Raiders lost Davante Adams to a mid-week hamstring injury and he has unsurprisingly made his desire to be traded publicly known. It looks unlikely that he plays this week and it’s possible he has played his last snap as a Raider. Meyers was the team’s clear WR1 in Week 4. On top of his first-read target share, Meyers saw 42 percent of the Raiders’ total targets and 52 percent of their air yards.
Los Angeles Rams
Kyren Williams leads the NFL in carries (eight) and touchdowns (five) inside the five-yard line
The addition of Blake Corum has had zero effect on Williams’ role in the Rams’ offense. Williams leads all running backs in snap share (85 percent), carry share (78 percent), and route rate (67 percent).
Miami Dolphins
De’Von Achane is last in the NFL in rush yards over expected per carry (-1.77)
As great as Achane was last year, his situation is proving too terrible to overcome. He averaged 7.8 yards per carry last year and is currently averaging 3.1 yards per attempt. Achane’s touch total has ballooned in his second season, but his efficiency has fallen so far that it’s impossible to rank him as an RB1 until Tua Tagovailoa returns.
Minnesota Vikings
Justin Jefferson is the only player to score a touchdown in every game this year
Last week, Jefferson, Jalen Nailor, and Chris Godwin were the three players with a receiving touchdown in all three games. Nailor and Godwin failed to find the end zone last week, meaning Jefferson is the lone player you can trust to get in the paint every week for the rest of time.
New England Patriots
Ja’Lynn Polk set a season-high in routes (34)
Polk ran a route on 87 percent of the Patriots’ dropbacks and earned season-highs in targets (seven) and air yards (108) as well. He was the first New England player to top 62 air yards in a game this year.
New Orleans Saints
Derek Carr has one passing touchdown over the past two weeks
Carr threw five touchdown passes in two blowout wins to start the year. He has fallen off a cliff since then. The advanced numbers aren’t kind to him either. He averaged .56 EPA per dropback over the first two games compared to -.02 EPA per dropback over the past two weeks.
New York Giants
Wan’Dale Robinson is fourth in the NFL in targets (38) and fifth in receptions (26)
Robinson is also in the top 10 in targets per route run and target share. A shocking number of stats would tell you Robinson is a PPR WR1. On the other hand, Robinson is outside the top 40 wide receivers in yards per route run and air yards share. Splitting the difference, his volume, albeit gimmicky, is enough to rank him as a weekly WR2.
New York Jets
Garrett Wilson ranks 65th in yards per route run (1.56)
Wilson has never been a YPRR star, largely because of how terrible his team’s quarterbacks have been. He has, however, had other nerd stats to fall back on. That’s not universally the case this year. He ranks 58th in ESPN’s Open Score and 54th in PFF receiving grade. The good news is that he is still earning targets at a high rate. Wilson has been targeted on 23 percent of his routes and has a 26 percent target share.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Justin Fields is averaging 2.25 designed carries per game
That is good for sixth-most among quarterbacks, but it’s not at the level of elite rushers like Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts, who are averaging five and 3.5 designed carries per game respectively. Fields topped four designed carries per game in 2023 and 2022. With how little passing volume Fields sees, it’s hard to bet on him as an every-week QB1.
San Francisco 49ers
Jordan Mason leads all running backs in rushing expected fantasy points
Mason is the RB6 when looking at total expected fantasy points, so his light usage in the receiving game isn’t enough to knock him out of the top half of the RB1 ranks. He leads the NFL in red zone carries and is fifth in attempts inside the five. With the Christian McCaffrey news cycle getting worse by the week, he strikes me as a clear buy.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks lead the NFL in pass rate over expected
Ryan Grubb’s offense is built for fantasy points.
Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Darnold operating the most pass-centric offenses in the NFL. pic.twitter.com/zxSPaCgKWq
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 1, 2024
The Seahawks are also second in the NFL in neutral situation pace. Geno Smith set a career-high in passing yards at 395 last week and has topped 300 twice already. Geno only topped 300 yards four times last year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bucky Irving saw his first goal line carries in Week 4
Prior to Week 4, Rachaad White had taken all three of Tampa Bay’s carries inside the five-yard line. That changed on Sunday when the Bucs gave Irving three attempts near the goal line. Irving also set a season-high in route rate (35 percent) while White hit a low point in the stat (47 percent). Irving is making the transition from a change-of-pace option to a true committee back.
Washington Commanders
Terry McLaurin has seen over 60 percent of the Commanders’ air yards in three games this year
McLaurin, unsurprisingly, leads all wide receivers in air yards share. The Commanders have been opening things up over the past two weeks as well. In Weeks 1 and 2, they registered a -3% pass rate over expected. That has flipped to +5% over the past two weeks. The increase in pass rate hasn’t had any negative effects on Jayden Daniels. PFF graded him as their No. 1 passer in Week 3 and their No. 5 passer last week.
