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Arizona Cardinals
Marvin Harrison Jr. leads the NFL in targets of 15+ air yards (13)
MHJ is second in the NFL in total air yards (373) and 10th in target share (46 percent). The rookie has also seen five end zone targets, the second-most among all receivers. A sleepy Week 1 aside, Harrison Jr. has been as dominant as fantasy managers hoped for when they took him in the second round of drafts.
Atlanta Falcons
Kyle Pitts has run a route on 79 percent of Kirk Cousins’ dropbacks over the past two weeks
That would still be good for top-10 among all tight ends this year, but it’s down from his Week 1 rate of 100 percent. This wouldn’t be so concerning if the Falcons weren’t running Ray-Ray McCloud on every passing play. You can carve out an every-down role for a career return man but can’t put the former No. 8 overall pick in the field as often?
Pitts’ rate of snaps lined up out wide, in turn, has also fallen since Week 1. He is averaging .14 targets per route run. That is well behind all three of Atlanta’s starting receivers. Much like the coach before him, Raheem Morris doesn’t seem to have a concrete plan for Pitts.
Baltimore Ravens
Mark Andrews ran four routes
This is what head coach John Harbaugh had to say on the matter after the game:
#Ravens HC John Harbaugh telling Mark Andrews managers that they’re in for a hellacious roller coaster
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) September 23, 2024
(Harbaugh mentioned earlier in the presser that to be able to run the ball when you want to, and do it out of big groups that protect the edges, that’s something that’s in our… pic.twitter.com/9XlTw3GwxK
Harbaugh said Andrews’ lack of reps was based on the style of football they were playing versus Dallas. Andrews hasn’t been subbed off this frequently regardless of game script or opponent since his rookie season. The Ravens are no longer treating Andrews like an elite tight end, and neither should we.
Buffalo Bills
Dalton Kincaid had an aDOT of 12.2
Kincaid wasn’t earning targets at a high clip heading into Week 3 and the issue was exacerbated by his running back level aDOT. That changed versus the Jags. Buffalo used him as a chain-mover but also targeted him more often. He was targeted on 31 percent of his routes, earned a 17 percent target share, and accounted for a third of Buffalo’s air yards. This won’t be a typical week for Kincaid, but it’s enough to keep him in the TE1 ranks for Week 4.
Carolina Panthers
Andy Dalton is the first Panthers quarterback to throw for three touchdowns with no interceptions since 2019.
Panthers legend Kyle Allen somehow accomplished that feat twice in 2019 despite only throwing for 17 touchdowns while piling up 16 picks. Dalton ranked ninth in EPA per play in Week 3 and threw for 319 yards on top of the three scores. Switching from Bryce Young to Andy Dalton is going to do wonders for the fantasy outlooks of Diontae Johnson, Chuba Hubbard, and maybe even Xavier Legette.
Chicago Bears
Rome Odunze led the NFL in air yards (250)
Caleb Williams locked onto Odunze in the second half, hitting him for gains of 47, 27, 17, and 14 yards. He also found Odunze for a one-yard touchdown. The rookie accounted for 49 percent of the Bears’ air yards in Week 3 and has three end zone targets over the past two weeks. Odunze is pushing for a WR2 ranking in Week 4.
Cincinnati Bengals
Chase Brown ranks top-three in the NFL in PFF rush grade (87.4), yards per carry (7.4), and yards after contact per carry (4.7)
Brown hasn’t seen the field much this year but is as explosive as anyone when he gets the ball. He is also coming off a season-high nine touches and earned 37 percent of the Bengals’ carries in Week 3. Fantasy managers can leave the light on for him for another week.
Cleveland Browns
Jerome Ford saw 63 percent of the Browns’ carries and 13 percent of the targets
Ford played more of a committee role in Week 2 but returned to top-dog status last week. That was only good for 10 carries and four targets. Still, it’s a good sign for his fantasy outlook as the Browns prepare to take on the Raiders.
Dallas Cowboys
Rico Dowdle saw 53 percent of the Cowboys’ rush attempts
Dowdle’s carry share and snap share have both risen in consecutive weeks. Ezekiel Elliott’s role, in turn, has declined over that stretch. To be fair to Elliott, the Cowboys easily beat the Browns in Week 1 before falling behind early and ultimately losing in the following two weeks. Dowdle hasn’t done much so far, but Zeke has proven to be one of the league’s least effective backs. The most likely outcome is that the team abandons the run just as they did in 2023.
Denver Broncos
Bo Nix was PFF’s No. 1 graded deep passer (96.4)
Nix was the No. 27 graded deep thrower through two weeks. His profile coming out of Oregon was that of a check-down artist. After two games, Nix had done nothing to beat the allegations. He changed the narrative in Week 3 by completing two-of-three throws over 20 yards downfield. Nix wasn’t intercepted or sacked and ran for 47 yards plus a score in a drubbing of the Bucs. Nix gets a tough matchup with the Jets this week but could be back on the streaming radar in Week 5.
Detroit Lions
The Lions are second in the NFL in expected fantasy points for running backs
Per RotoViz, Detroit’s backfield as a whole has an expected fantasy output of 60.1 points on the ground and another 34.9 through the air. That’s the most rushing expected points on the fourth-most receiving expected points. Only the Dolphins have juiced their backfield with more scoring potential. There might not be enough volume for both Detroit backs to finish as RB1s, but they are great bets to ping-pong RB1 weeks off each other.
Green Bay Packers
Malik Willis is fourth in the NFL in EPA per play
Willis has taken just three sacks in his two starts and hasn’t thrown an interception.
Jordan Love looks likely to return to the lineup this week, but Willis and head coach Matt LaFleur both deserve kudos for how well the offense has operated sans Love.
Houston Texans
Cam Akers played one more snap than Dare Ogunbowale
The Texans got down early and never came close to evening things up versus the Vikings. Akers caught a touchdown pass on his lone reception but only ran a route on a quarter of C.J. Stroud’s dropbacks. He has been a below-average runner this season, ranking as PFF’s No. 39 back between the tackles. He is adding a measly 2.4 yards after contact per carry. Akers is a two-down thumper who needs game-script to be on his side to have a productive fantasy day. Luckily for him, he should get that luxury in Week 4 versus the Jags.
Indianapolis Colts
Adonai Mitchell ran two routes
Josh Downs returned to the lineup in Week 3 and immediately took on a full-time role, running a route on 73 percent of Anthony Richardson’s dropbacks. He earned a 29 percent target share in his first game of the year. Mitchell, in turn, was sent to the bench. PFF has charted him with their lowest grade among all receivers and his .7 yards per route run are near the bottom as well. Mitchell can be cut loose in redraft leagues.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Bryce Young has thrown for 300 yards more recently than Trevor Lawrence
Lawrence’s last 300-yard game came in Week 12 of the 2023 season. Since then, Young, Zach Wilson, Tyrod Taylor, and Desmond Ridder have all had a 300-yard game. The peripheral stats were favorable to Lawrence heading into his MNF game versus the Bills, but the wheels quickly fell off in primetime. He threw for 178 yards, a touchdown, and an interception in a blowout loss to Buffalo. Lawrence ranked 21st out of 24 quarterbacks with at least 30 dropbacks in EPA per play and CPOE.
Kansas City Chiefs
Carson Steele saw 61 percent of Kansas City’s carries and ran a route on 55 percent of Patrick Mahomes dropbacks
Had Steele played that role since the start of the season, he would rank sixth in carry share and 14th in route rate this year. Steele also saw both of the team’s carries inside the five. Samaje Perine was the two-minute-drill back but Steele was on the field in most other situations. This is as good as it gets for a maybe-fullback in his first start at running back.
Las Vegas Raiders
Alexander Mattison has out-snapped Zamir White in two of three games
The Raiders lost both of those games. Things will turn around when they are in positive game scripts, though, that doesn’t figure to be very often. They are favored by one point this week and then go seven weeks without being projected to win. After a one-game reprieve from being an underdog versus Denver, Vegas has them on the losing side of the spread for the remainder of the season.
Los Angeles Chargers
J.K. Dobbins saw 75 percent of the Chargers’ carries
Dobbins had only seen 40 percent of the team’s carries in Weeks 1 and 2. Despite being bottled up in Week 3, Dobbins is still one of the best backs in Next Gen Stats’ rush yards over expected. Gus Edwards, on the other hand, has the most carries for a running back (32) without a missed tackle forced (0). He is also looking for his first rush of more than 10 yards. Dobbins has earned a lion’s share of the work going forward.
Los Angeles Rams
Tutu Atwell saw a third of the Rams’ first-read targets
Without Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua to lean on, the Rams used Demarcus Robinson on 93 percent of their routes, Atwell on 83 percent of their routes, and didn’t have a clear WR3. They also didn’t use a third receiver nearly as often.
Here's another noteworthy observation via Next Gen Stats:
— Stu Jackson (@StuJRams) September 23, 2024
After utilizing 11 personnel on 100% of snaps through Week 2, the Rams utilized 12 personnel on 25 of 56 snaps in Week 3 (44.6%).
It marked their highest 12 personnel usage in a game since Week 16 of the 2022 season.
They were in 12-personnel on 36 percent of their passing plays. Atwell has had a tenuous grip on a full-time role in the past, so it’s hard to write his route rate in pen going forward. He is, however, a strong stash in most formats. Demarcus Robinson, on the other hand, is locked in for a large role.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins have averaged 13.2 fewer points without Tua Tagovailoa in the lineup since 2022
The data comes from four starts split between Skylar Thompson and Teddy Bridgewater in 2022 and another start for Thompson last week.
All of Miami’s offensive metrics crater without Tagovailoa in the lineup. He has to miss at least three more games while on injured reserve.
Minnesota Vikings
Three players have scored one receiving touchdown in every game this year and two of them play for the Minnesota Vikings
Those players are Justin Jefferson and Jalen Nailor. Sam Darnold leads the NFL with eight passing touchdowns and also has the highest touchdown rate at 10.3 percent. His rate will drop, but Darnold hasn’t gotten to throw the ball more than 28 times in a game as a Viking. An increase in volume will help offset the inbound touchdown regression.
New England Patriots
The Patriots are the only team without a completion on a throw 20+ yards downfield
The Patriots are easily the worst team at picking up chunk gains through the air.
Intermediate and deep passing pic.twitter.com/H7N4JMKyxs
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) September 24, 2024
They rank last in the NFL in passing yards per game and trail only the Browns in yards per attempt. We’re getting Drake Maye sooner rather than later.
New Orleans Saints
Chris Olave ranks ninth in yards per route run and first in PFF receiving grade but is the fantasy WR28
Olave posted his best fantasy game of the year in Week 3, going for 86 yards and a touchdown on six grabs. He strikes me as the perfect “buy high” candidate. The peripherals see Olave as an elite wide receiver and his production was only good for the first time in Week 3. There’s still a window to get a potential WR1 at WR2 prices.
New York Giants
Malik Nabers is on pace for 130 receptions and 1,536 yards
Nabers is on pace to narrowly set the yardage record for a rookie while smashing the receptions title. He is also on pace to set the record for targets in a season. Not by a rookie, but by any player. Nabers’ current pace would have him hit 210 targets, besting the previous high by two.
New York Jets
Braelon Allen earned 37 percent of the Jets’ carries
Allen rushed 11 times for 55 yards. Breece Hall ran 16 times for 54 yards. Though the Jets did blow out the Patriots, Allen’s rushing total wasn’t influenced by garbage time. On New York’s final drive, Hall saw three carries while Allen got just one. Allen is forcing his way into more touches, making it hard for Hall to keep pace with other contenders for the RB1 overall crown.
Philadelphia Eagles
Saquon Barkley logged his fastest speed (22.1 MPH) since 2019
Barkley broke off a 65-yard run to jumpstart a struggling Philly offense in the fourth quarter. It was his second-longest gain since 2019.
Saquon Barkley reached a top speed of 21.66 mph on his 65-yard TD run, the 2nd-fastest play by a ball carrier this season, and fastest on a run play.
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 22, 2024
🔹 Defenders in the Box: 7
🔹 Expected Rush Yards: 3
🔹 Rush Yards Over Expected: +62#PHIvsNO | @Eagles pic.twitter.com/fjgvvpjdAT
With DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown banged-up, Barkley should get plenty of opportunities to hit more home runs going forward.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Cordarrelle Patterson ran a route on 37 percent of Justin Fields’ dropbacks
Jaylen Warren saw an uptick in snaps two weeks ago. Just as he appeared to be turning the corner, Mike Tomlin pulled him from the Steelers’ Week 3 game because of a knee injury. He underwent an MRI that didn’t reveal any long-term issues after the game. Having dealt with two injuries in the first three weeks of the season, it wouldn’t be surprising for Patterson’s role on passing downs to stick.
San Francisco 49ers
Brandon Aiyuk saw 47 percent of the 49ers’ first-read targets
Aiyuk was targeted on 29 percent of his routes and earned a 33 percent target share. All three of those numbers are elite marks for a receiver. If I told you he would have those stats going into Week 3, you may have reasonably guessed he would catch 11 passes for 175 yards and three scores. That, of course, was Jauan Jennings’ stat line. Nonetheless, Aiyuk was heavily involved in an elite passing attack last week. His explosion game is coming.
Seattle Seahawks
Zach Charbonnet saw 78 percent of the Seahawks’ carries and ran a route on 76 percent of Geno Smith’s dropbacks
Kenneth Walker missed Week 3 with an oblique injury. Charbonnet took his role and then some, dominating both the rushing and receiving work for the Seattle backfield. He cashed in for 107 yards from scrimmage and two scores on 21 touches.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chris Godwin has run 60 percent of his routes from the slot
True to his word, Bucs OC Liam Coen has deployed Godwin primarily as a slot receiver this year. Godwin only ran 37 percent of his routes from the slot in 2023. Mike Evans has seemingly been overtaken by Godwin as the team’s No. 1 receiver. Godwin has been targeted on 28 percent of his routes to Evans’ 16 percent. Like every year, the Bucs receiver you should have drafted during the summer was the cheaper one.
Tennessee Titans
DeAndre Hopkins ran a route on 50 percent of Will Levis’s dropbacks
Hopkins finally paid off for fantasy managers with a 6/73/1 receiving line. The bad news is that it came while still playing a part-time role. It’s great to see him producing once again, but fantasy managers can’t trust a player on the field as infrequently as Hopkins.
Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels earned the highest PPF passing grade this season (95.5)
Daniels’ grade in Week 3 tied Kyler Murray’s from two weeks ago. Daniels completed all but two of his 23 attempts for 254 yards and two scores. He also ran for 39 yards and a score. Most importantly, he took just two sacks and did not turn the ball over once. Daniels’ rushing was never a concern, but he needed to show more as a passer after two weeks to solidify his fantasy QB1 status.
A play @Commanders fans won't soon forget 🔥 @JayD__5 pic.twitter.com/D3Peb5A6sK
— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) September 24, 2024
He did just that in Week 3 with a near-flawless game versus the Bengals. He gets a matchup with an Arizona defense that has given up the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing passers in Week 4.