Arizona Cardinals
Only two receivers drafted in the top 10 have averaged fewer than 50 yards per game as a rookie before posting multiple WR1 seasons since 2000
Marvin Harrison Jr. is averaging 49 yards per game. The two rookies who had quiet debuts only to explode later in their careers are Larry Fitzgerald and Plaxico Burress. There have been 36 wide receivers taken in the top 10 over the past quarter-century. Of them, 17 topped 50 yards per game in their first season. Two of the remaining 19 are currently rookies, two had multiple WR1 seasons, and 17 are somewhere on the bust spectrum.
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Atlanta Falcons
Kyle Pitts has earned a 20 percent target share on 76 percent of the routes over the past two weeks
Pitts is the TE14 in points per game in that stretch but trails only three tight ends in fantasy points under expectation. His role has returned, but his connection with Kirk Cousins did not. Maybe the move to Michael Penix saves him.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are the only team to have three players ranked inside the top 30 in ESPN’s Open Score
Open Score measures receiver separation and the Ravens are getting loads of it. Not only is the trio of Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews, and Zay Flowers in the top 30, all three are ranked inside the top 12. Even the depth options on Baltimore get open. Isaiah Likely ranks 41st in Open Score and Diontae Johnson—maybe no longer with the team—is 45th.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills lead the NFL in yards per reception (11.6 ) and yards per target (9.7) to their running backs
Buffalo ranks second in EPA per play when targeting a player out of the backfield. Their success when throwing to running backs has propelled Ty Johnson into the RB3 ranks in recent weeks. Johnson caught five passes for 114 yards last week and two for 53 and a touchdown in Week 14.
Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young committed more than two turnovers for the first time since Week 9 of the 2023 season
Young was intercepted twice and coughed up two fumbles versus Dallas. He averaged a dreadful -.16 EPA per play. Young was averaging .04 EPA per play since returning to the lineup heading into Week 15. This was the worst possible “return to form” for Young, who lacked as bad as he did in Week 1. He will try to course correct versus Arizona this week.
Chicago Bears
D’Andre Swift has converted half of his carries with three yards to go into first downs or touchdowns
That ranks 36th out of 45 running backs with at least 15 attempts. Roschon Johnson, on the other hand, has converted on 68 percent of his attempts, the ninth-highest rate among qualified running backs. Johnson should resume his short-yardage rule if he clears the concussion protocol for Week 16.
Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow has thrown for 250 yards and three touchdowns in six consecutive games
He and Tom Brady are the only quarterbacks to do that. Fittingly, Brady went 6-0 in those games while the Bengals are batting .500 during Burrow’s streak. The fantasy points, however, cash all the same.
Cleveland Browns
Dorian Thompson-Robinson is 90th in EPA and 91st in CPOE (min. 150 dropbacks) since 2020
Finding almost any quarterback on this morass of text and dots is impossible. Thompson-Robinson isn’t any quarterback. He can be found alone at the bottom-left of the chart. In his three starts in 2023, DTR averaged 140 yards. He threw one touchdown and four interceptions.
Dallas Cowboys
Rico Dowdle is second in the NFL in rushing yards (634) over the past seven weeks
Dating back to Week 9, only Saquon Barkley has more yards on the ground. Dowdle has as many games with 20 carries this season as he did in the past seven seasons combined. He can safely be treated as an RB1 for the final two rounds of the fantasy postseason.
Denver Broncos
Javonte Williams earned his highest route rate (57 percent) since Week 6
Jaleel McLaughlin left Week 15 with a quad injury and still managed to lead the backfield with seven carries. Williams earned the bulk of the snaps with a 54 percent snap share and out-carried backup Audric Estime 6-5. If McLaughlin is out, Williams appears to be the lead back for Week 16.
Detroit Lions
Jahmyr Gibbs averaged 23 touches per game when David Montgomery was sidelined last year
Gibbs has been a strong fantasy option in 2024 already, but the loss of Montgomery has him in position to be the player you need for the fantasy playoffs. He finished as the RB20, RB1, and RB2 in his three starts sans Montgomery.
Jahmyr Gibbs without David Montgomery (three career starts):
— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) December 16, 2024
18-82-0
20-126-1
31-189-1
Green Bay Packers
Romeo Doubs has a 27 percent target in share in games with all Packers healthy
The caveat removes a few games without Doubs, two more sans Jordan love, and a final contest that Christian Watson missed. Watson is second on the team in first read target share at 20 percent when everyone is active. At full strength, the Packers want to run the football and throw to Doubs.
Houston Texans
The Texans rank 26th in EPA per rush attempt on first and second down
Despite this, they run on 52 percent of their early downs. That is the seventh-highest rate in the league. They average -.15 EPA on these plays compared to .02 EPA on early down passing plays.
Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Richardson earned his worst PFF passing grade (47.7) since Week 3
Richardson posted a dreadful -16.1 CPOE while averaging -.29 EPA per play. Both marks ranked well outside the top 25 quarterbacks for Week 15. Richardson saved an otherwise awful day for fantasy managers with a rushing touchdown but looked like his old self as a passer.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Brenton Strange has averaged 10.9 fantasy points per game with Evan Engram out
Engram missed four games earlier in the year and Strange finishes as a TE1 in three of those contests. He returned to a starting role last week and earned a 28 percent target share. That was good for 11 receptions and 73 yards. He can be fired up as a high-end TE2 at worst for his Week 16 date with the Raiders.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have been in 12-personnel for 41 percent of their passing plays over the past eight weeks
That rate sat at 28 percent over the first seven weeks of the season. Turnover at wide receiver has led Andy Reid to treat Noah Gray as an extra receiver. Gray is averaging 3.6 receptions for 39 yards and a score over his past five games.
Las Vegas Raiders
Brock Bowers is 109 yards away from setting the receiving record for a rookie tight end
Bowers set the record for receptions two weeks ago. With nothing left to play for but the No. 1 overall pick, a record-setting rookie campaign for Bowers is the Raiders’ Super Bowl.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers’ backfield ranks dead last in total expected fantasy points
LA’s backfield has combined for 175 expected fantasy points on the ground, which ranks 23rd in the NFL. The differentiator is their lack of involvement through the air. LA is dead last in total running back targets and trials only their LA rival Rams in expected points thrown to RBs. This is not the team to go digging for running back FLEX plays.
Los Angeles Rams
Puka Nacua has the fifth-most 100-yard games during a player’s first two seasons in NFL history
Nacua has 11 such games, tying Randy Moss and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Bill Groman holds the record at 16 while Odell Beckham and Justin Jefferson finished one and two games behind him. I don’t see how Nacua can be ranked as anything lower than the WR3 in all formats next year.
Miami Dolphins
De’Von Achane is averaging the second-fewest rush yards over expected (-.88) of the past five seasons
Achane has two carries of more than 20 yards this year. He had eight such carries on 62 fewer attempts as a rookie. Has this mattered for fantasy players? Not really. Achane is the RB8 in PPR points per game.
Minnesota Vikings
Sam Darnold leads the NFL in completions (27), yards (969), and yards per attempt (17.9) on deep throws
Justin Jefferson, unsurprisingly, is in the top five in receptions (11) and yards (417) on deep targets. Not to be outdone by his superstar teammate, Jordan Addison ranks second in deep yards (430) on just as many receptions.
New England Patriots
The Patriots are one of two teams without multiple 20-point fantasy games from their receivers
The other team, somehow, is Buffalo. The Pats are one of four teams still looking for their first 25-point outing from a receiver. New England may simply draft seven straight wide receivers in April.
New Orleans Saints
Spencer Rattler is PFF’s No. 41 graded quarterback on deep throws
Rattler’s 50.1 grade trails only Mac Jones and Caleb Williams. On the bright side, he has been far more accurate on all other throws. Rattler has earned an 81.2 passing grade on intermediate attempts and a 74.6 grade on short throws. Marquez Valdes-Scantling may not hit as often with Rattler drawing the start in Week 16, but Juwan Johnson and the running backs should be unaffected.
New York Giants
Malik Nabers has seven games with 10+ targets and no touchdowns
He leads the NFL in that random stat I just made up. Only three players have more than four such games. The other two are CeeDee Lamb and Drake London. Nabers is an elite target earner who has been betrayed by awful quarterback play as a rookie. Despite missing a handful of games, he is still on pace to set the record for targets in a rookie season.
New York Jets
Breece Hall set season-lows in snap share (49 percent), carry share (41 percent), and route rate (44 percent)
Hall earned a dreadful seven percent target share, trailing only his mark from the last time he played, Week 13. Both he and Isaiah Davis ran 16 routes. Hall’s RB1 days are over.
Philadelphia Eagles
Kenneth Gainwell set season-highs in snaps (31), routes (12), and targets (three)
Saquon Barkley appeared to get banged up early in the Eagles’ win over the Steelers. He was spotted having his right leg looked at by trainers on the sidelines. Barkley still finished the game, earning 19 carries in the process, but Week 15 was a massive decline in his workload as a cut of the overall opportunities. The Eagles could be forced to manage his touches as they eye a deep playoff run.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Najee Harris hasn’t had a carry go for more than 20 yards since Week 8
That’s 107 consecutive rush attempts without more than 20 yards for the plodding back. Despite this, the Steelers don’t seem awfully interested in giving Jaylen Warren the rock. Warren has seen 16 carries over his past three games combined.
San Francisco 49ers
Isaac Guerendo set a season-high in career share (84 percent) for any 49ers running back
Guerendo, fresh off a questionable tag, ran 16 times for 57 yards and caught four balls for 18 yards in a loss to the Rams. Deebo Samuel and Brock Purdy combined for three carries while no backup running saw a touch. Guerendo is now dealing with a new injury, a hamstring issue. If he plays through it, the rookie will stick in the RB2 ranks for Week 16.
Seattle Seahawks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has finished as a top-20 receiver in five of his past six games
JSN is the WR4 on a points-per-game basis over the past seven weeks. He set a season-high in target share in Week 15, earning 40 percent of the Seahawks’ looks. Smith-Njigba has fully supplanted DK Metcalf as the team’s No. 1 receiver.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bucky Irving has as many games with more than 100 rushing yards in the past three weeks as Rachaad White has in his career
Bucky exploded for 152 yards on 25 attempts three weeks ago but then most of Week 14 with a back injury. He returned with a vengeance in Week 15, running for 115 yards at 7.8 yards per carry. Both games would be career highs in rushing yards for White.
Tennessee Titans
Chig Okonkwo earned career-highs in targets (10) and receptions (eight)
Okonkwo’s 28 percent target share was also a high-water mark for the third-year tight end. He only ran a route on 53 percent of the team’s dropbacks, so it’s hard to get our hopes up for the part-time player. But, there are worse options off the wire if you are truly desperate at tight end.
Washington Commanders
Terry McLaurin led the league in uncaught air yards in Week 15
Jayden Daniels wanted 122 more yards for McLaurin but couldn’t find the mark on three deep bombs.
Terry McLaurin caught 7 of 10 targets for 73 yards and 2 TDs on Sunday.
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) December 16, 2024
The incomplete targets:
-Overthrown potential 52-yard TD
-Potential 62-yard TD off fingertips
-Underthrown potential 54-yard TD (toughest of the three) pic.twitter.com/MTmRlC57ZT
McLaurin still gave fantasy managers a great day, but we were a few feet from a truly special outing from the veteran wideout.
