Arizona Cardinals
Go routes have accounted for 26.8 percent of Marvin Harrison Jr.’s targets
The NFL average is 14.4 percent for all wide receivers. Marv is good at these routes, so you’d expect him to earn more looks on them. But the Cardinals are also giving him a disproportionate amount of clearout routes. He has run a go route on 26.4 percent of his passing plays compared to 17.4 percent for all wide receivers.
Atlanta Falcons
Kyle Pitts has run a route on 70 percent of the Falcons’ dropbacks since Week 8
That would put Pitts at 19th among tight ends on the season. It’s not a terrible rank, but one of the biggest selling points with Pitts early in the year was that he ran every route, covering up his poor target rate of .16 on the season. Despite running fewer routes, his target rate has fallen to .13 since Week 8, tanking his target share to 11 percent.
Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen has topped 283 passing yards once
The Bills have a negative pass rate over expected this year and rank 26th in pace. Allen has only attempted 40 passes in a game one time as well. He did so six times last year and five times in 2022.
Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young is Pro Football Focus’s No. 3 graded quarterback over the past three weeks
Young is also eighth in EPA per play and 12th in CPOE over that stretch.
He is taking fewer sacks and doesn’t have a single turnover since the Panthers’ bye (which was Week 11 so “past three weeks” is only two games but it sounds more impressive and we’re trying to give the guy his flowers here). Young did this against a solid Kansas City defense and a putrid Tampa Bay squad. He gets a tough test with a surging Philly defense this week.
Chicago Bears
Caleb Williams is 11th in EPA per play since Thomas Brown took over as interim offensive coordinator
Williams was the QB27 before Brown took over. The rookie has put two of his best games on tape over the past two weeks with 596 yards, five touchdowns, and zero picks. PFF has charted him with a 74.1 passing grade since Brown donned the headset. That was at 61.5 before Brown.
Cincinnati Bengals
Chase Brown has seen all but one running back carry for the Bengals since Zack Moss was placed on injured reserve
He also has the only running back target as well. Brown is a locked-in RB1 with Moss out of the lineup.
Brown is 24 years old with two years left on his rookie deal and Moss is a cut candidate in the offseason. He has a strong case to be ranked as an RB1 in dynasty.
Cleveland Browns
Jameis Winston is averaging 336 yards per game
That would be good for 5,712 yards over a 17-game season, 235 yards more than any other campaign in NFL history. His attempts pace would also be good for the NFL record over a full season. This fueled the trio of Cedric Tillman, Jerry Jeudy, and Elijah Moore to weekly WR3 rankings for a few weeks. With Tillman out, both Jeudy and Moore can be treated as WR2s.
Dallas Cowboys
Rico Dowdle has seen 70 percent of the Cowboys’ carries over the past two weeks
Dowdle isn’t getting the full complement of routes but still has a healthy 10 percent target share in those games. He has 41 carries for 198 yards and a touchdown in his previous two games with an extra 23 yards on six receptions.
Week 13 RB Fantasy Usage
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) December 2, 2024
1. Bijan Robinson (25.1 exp HPPR)
2. Jonathan Taylor (23.3)
3. Bucky Irving (22.4)
4. Josh Jacobs (21.6)
5. Alvin Kamara (19.5)
6. David Montgomery (18.7)
7. De'Von Achane (17.6)
8. Joe Mixon (17.5)
9. Rico Dowdle (17.2)
This is RB1 stuff, folks.
Detroit Lions
Jahmyr Gibbs ran a season-low nine times
Gibbs’ 27 percent carry share was also a season-low. His second-worst mark came two weeks ago. Both contests presented favorable game scripts for the Lions’ ground game, but that has been more beneficial for David Montgomery as of late. Montgomery had 36 carries for 163 yards and two scores in the pair of low-volume games for Gibbs.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers haven’t had a 20-point fantasy game from a receiver since Week 4
Green Bay has only had three such games this year and two came in Week 4. Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks both broke out in a frantic comeback effort versus the Vikings. The Packers’ pass volume has remained low over the past two months and the targets are spread out nearly every week. Romeo Doubs is the only wideout with a target share north of 25 percent in even one game since Week 4. Doub is comfortably behind Reed and Christian Watson in yards per route run, so his high-volume games don’t always translate to spike weeks.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Mac Jones has still not completed a deep throw
Jones is 0-of-11 on throws 20+ yards downfield this year. He is the only quarterback with more than eight such throws but no completions. Jones is also third-to-last in YPA on intermediate passes. He is, however, top-10 in YPA on attempts between one and nine yards downfield. Brian Thomas Jr. got home for fantasy managers last week with four catches for 76 yards and a score, all of which came from Jones, giving fantasy managers some hope that he will survive the Mac Jones era to close out the 2024 season.
Kansas City Chiefs
Isiah Pacheco saw 47 percent of the Chiefs’ carries in his first game in 10 weeks
Pacheco returned from his leg and ankle injuries to run seven times for 44 yards. Kareem Hunt saw just as many carries but only ran for 15 yards. With Hunt offering no surplus value outside of a few yards and a cloud of dust, I fully expect Pacheco to take over the backfield by the end of the season.
Las Vegas Raiders
Brock Bowers’ 30.2 PPR points were the most for a rookie tight end since… Brock Bowers in Week 11
Bowers’ Week 11 total of 31.3 points is the most for a rookie tight end since 1995 while his Week 13 mark is a high dating back to 2006. He is one of seven tight ends to catch 10+ passes three times in one season and is on pace to set the record for receptions by a tight end.
Los Angeles Chargers
Ladd McConkey is 10th in total EPA among wide receivers
For reference, McConkey is just ahead of Drake London, A.J. Brown, Zay Flowers, Garrett Wilson, and CeeDee Lamb on the list. As impressive as this is for Ladd, it’s also wildly concerning for Justin Herbert and the Chargers, who may be without the rookie this week. McConkey suffered a knee injury on Sunday and was listed as questionable to return late in the game.
Los Angeles Rams
Puka Nacua is third among wide receivers in yards per route run (3.1) and PFF receiving grade (90.4)
Nacua easily leads the league in targets per route run at .34. His knee injury robbed us of an incredible sophomore season, but all of the nerdy metrics say Nacua is a superstar.
Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa has the lowest time to throw (min. 300 dropbacks) for a quarterback under 38 years old in the past 14 years
Tua’s 2.31 time to throw is a fraction of a second quicker than his 2023 mark. It’s faster than every quarterback with 300 dropbacks over the past nearly 15 years except for:
- 2020s Ben Roethlisberger
- Broncos Peyton Manning
- Bucs Tom Brady
His 6.2 aDOT trails only Alex Smith’s mark of 5.9, set in 2015 with the Chiefs. That should give you an idea of what type of offense Miami is running.
Minnesota Vikings
Justin Jefferson has a 25 percent target share since T.J. Hockenson returned in Week 9
Jefferson’s air yards share is down to 30 percent. His splits pre and post-Hockenson are hard to look at.
There are loads of other factors at play here. Jordan Addison missed time in the pre-Hockenson split, further juicing the numbers. Sam Darnold’s play has taken a hit lately. And Jefferson isn’t running as hot on touchdowns in recent weeks. Still, the volume metrics show a meaningful hit to Jefferson’s workload with the increase in target competition.
New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara is the only running back with over 200 expected fantasy points this year
With 234 expected fantasy points to his name, Kamara is miles ahead of the No. 2 back. He is the only back with more than 100 expected points through the air and is on pace for a top-20 season over the past quarter-century in receiving expected points. That is all before the Saints lost Taysom Hill.
New York Giants
Malik Nabers is the WR6 in expected fantasy points since Week 7
As anyone who has rostered Nabers during that stretch knows, he is not the WR6 in actual fantasy points. In that category, he ranks 28th among wide receivers. With a banged-up line and terrible quarterback play, it’s hard to see how he turns things around this late in the season. Still the volume metrics…speak volumes about just how dominant Nabers could be in a different offense. I’m drafting Nabers at the 1/2 turn next year and there’s nothing you can do to stop me.
New York Jets
Breece Hall was held without a catch for the first time since Week 2 of the 2023 season
Week 13 was just the third time in his career that Hall didn’t catch a pass. The first was when he suffered a torn ACL in 2022 and the second was in his second game back from said ACL tear. This time may also have been injury-related as Hall entered the weekend listed as questionable with a knee issue. The Jets dropped his route rate to 52 percent—his second-lowest mark of the year—and split the remaining routes between Braelon Allen and third-stringer Isaiah Davis. Davis caught his second, third, and fourth passes of the season, one of which was a touchdown.
Philadelphia Eagles
Grant Calcaterra had a 17 percent target share in three games without Dallas Goedert earlier this year
He ran a route on 87 percent of Jalen Hurts’ dropbacks during that stretch and hit eight PPR points twice. His target share also rose in each subsequent start. Goedert is now expected to miss some time with a knee injury. There’s not much of a ceiling with Calcaterra, but there is a TE2 floor.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Russell Wilson’s 414 yards versus the Bengals are the second-most of his career
Wilson is the QB15 in points per game dating back to his first start in Week 7. He ranks 11th in EPA per play and fourth in CPOE since taking over the starting gig. He gets a Browns defense that has fallen from grace this year and ranks 20th in EPA per dropback allowed.
San Francisco 49ers
Jauan Jennings hasn’t had a target share below 27 percent since Week 6
Jennings went down with an injury in Week 6 and didn’t return until Week 10, so the streak is “only” at four games. Still, that’s wildly impressive for a supposed third receiver playing alongside Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey. With CMC out of the picture and Deebo looking nothing like he did in previous years, Jennings is the 49ers’ clear No. 1 receiver to close the season.
Seattle Seahawks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s 15.3 aDOT was his highest of the year in games with DK Metcalf active
JSN only saw four targets, but two of them were 20+ yards downfield. He had an underwhelming 14 percent target share but 30 percent of the air yards. Seattle has generally used Smith-Njigba as the underneath option and DK Metcalf as the deep threat when both are healthy. That was not the case in Week 13.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cade Otton has a 16 percent target share and an eight percent air yards share since Mike Evans returned to the lineup
Those numbers were at 30 percent and 26 percent with Evans out of the lineup. Evans and Chris Godwin were both sidelined after Week 7, thrusting Otton into the No. 1 receiver role for three weeks. Though Godwin won’t return, Evans alone is enough to relegate Otton to the TE2 ranks.
Tennessee Titans
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has scored on 21 percent of his targets
That is the highest rate for a wide receiver with at least 30 targets in the past 24 years, tying Chiefs wideout Marc Boerigter’s exact stat line (of targets and touchdowns) in 2002. NWI will lose the record on 30+ targets the next time he doesn’t catch a touchdown but is still chasing history for higher target thresholds.