2023 Stats
Points per game: 19.4 (24th)
Total yards per game: 312.8 (24th)
Plays per game: 62.4 (19th)
Pass Attempts + Sacks per game: 41.2 (1st)
Dropback EPA per play: -0.07 (26th)
Rush attempts per game: 21.1 (32nd)
Rush EPA per play: -0.12 (20th)
Coaching Staff
Ron Rivera finally received his walking papers from the Commanders after bottoming out with a 4-13 record last season. His ride on the quarterback carousel came to an end after Sam Howell, a fifth-round pick from the 2022 class, threw for 3,946 yards, 21 touchdowns, and a league-high 21 interceptions while also taking a league-high 65 sacks.
Offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy didn’t do the team any favors in his first and only season with the team. He appeared hell-bent on forcing his will in the passing game regardless of down, distance, or situation. Unfortunately, the difference between Howell and Patrick Mahomes proved too much, as Bieniemy learned.
Rivera’s calling card, his defense, was abysmal in his final season. The Commanders allowed the third-most points in league history (518), narrowly trailing the 2020 Lions (519) and the 1981 Colts (533).
Now, the Commanders have replaced one defensive guy with another, bringing in long-time defensive guru and former Falcons head coach (2015-2020), Dan Quinn. Quinn went 43-42 during his tenure with the Falcons and was on the receiving end of Tom Brady’s comeback in Super Bowl LI when the Patriots overcame a 28-3 halftime deficit to win their fourth championship under Belichick and Brady.
Quinn’s defenses seldom stood out during his time with the Falcons. In 2017, they ranked eighth in points allowed per game but never ranked better than 14th in points allowed in any of his other five seasons. He was the last coach to be hired this coaching cycle, with the Titans and Seahawks both passing on him after two interviews. The Commanders, who were rumored to be in on Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, found out Johnson was withdrawing himself from consideration for the job while the Commanders were en route to hold a second interview with him in Detroit.
Quinn was reportedly the top coach for the Commanders all along, which made the timing of his hire relative to the other coaches interesting, but nevertheless.
Quinn and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury hope to turn around a Commanders team decimated by the previous regime. With fresh faces and an exciting rookie quarterback now in place, there’s hope that brighter days are finally ahead in the nation’s capital.
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Passing Game
QB: Jayden Daniels, Marcus Mariota
RB: Brian Robinson, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez
WR: Terry McLaurin, Dyami Brown
WR: Jahan Dotson, Olamide Zaccheaus
WR: Luke McCaffrey, Jamison Crowder
TE: Zach Ertz, Ben Sinnott
Perhaps the best draft pick Rivera ever gave the Commanders is the one he was unable to use. The Commanders used the No. 2 pick in this year’s draft to select 2023 Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels out of LSU. In his fifth and final season of college ball, Daniels turned in one of the most efficient seasons in NCAA history. The dual-threat speedster threw for 3,812-40-4 through the air while adding another 1,134 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground.
Daniels benefitted from having two of the most dynamic receivers in the country in Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., who were also taken in the first round of this year’s draft and will now look to do the same with the likes of Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson.
Both Commanders receivers are likely downgrades from what Daniels worked with at LSU, and the level of competition is about to ramp up in a big way. From a fantasy perspective, Daniels feels like a near lock to finish as a top-10 quarterback or better in any season, as his rushing upside should do more than enough to pad his floor. Since 2021, there have been 17 quarterbacks to rush for 400-plus yards in a season, with 11 of those quarterbacks finishing as top-10 fantasy QBs. Seven of those quarterbacks finished in the top five. Daniels’ fantasy ceiling is tremendous; however, my concerns for Daniels and his long-term career look a bit different.
For a guy who was a five-year starter, Daniels didn’t fully flash until his fifth season, and with top talent to boot. He was also one of the worst quarterbacks in FBS history in avoiding sacks since Pro Football Focus began tracking sack avoidance data in 2014. Daniels’ career pressure-to-sack rate, which I harped on repeatedly throughout the pre-draft process, ranked as the seventh-highest amongst 116 quarterback prospects, and the pro hit rates for players within his range are not encouraging.
I wrote earlier this offseason about how pressure to sack rate can be utilized to identify potential NFL busts when quarterbacks make the leap from college to the pros. I encourage anyone to check out the full article to learn more about the topic. I don’t want to go as far as to say Daniels’ NFL future has already been predetermined by his poor sack numbers, but it is a glaring red flag on his profile as he embarks on his professional career.
Wide receiver Terry McLaurin has made the most of a lousy situation throughout his career. A former third-round pick from the 2019 draft class, McLaurin has surpassed 1,000 yards in four of his five seasons despite playing with the likes of Alex Smith, Taylor Heinicke, Case Keenum, Carson Wentz, and Sam Howell in recent years. He went for 78-1,002-4 last season while finishing as the WR39 in fantasy points per game (12.0) in PPR leagues. It was McLaurin’s worst fantasy finish of his career, which is ironic given the team’s 635 pass attempts. He also tied a career-high with 128 targets. With that said, McLaurin’s efficiency — specifically his YPRR (1.56) took hits under Bieniemy. His 4.5 YAC/REC was on par with his career average, and McLaurin’s ability to stretch the field should work nicely with Daniels. If the Commanders don’t do a complete 180 in their first season under Quinn, McLaurin could benefit from negative game scripts this fantasy season.
Jahan Dotson aims to rebound from a sophomore season that saw him total 49-518-4 on 83 targets. Dotson caught 35 passes for 523 yards and seven touchdowns as a rookie but disappeared at times last season. He averaged just 4.9 targets per game and had five games in which he saw three or fewer targets. Dotson had a solid rookie season in 2022, but his success felt a bit overstated at times. While his seven touchdowns that season were the most of any rookie receiver, Dotson’s TPRR of 0.149 ranked 73rd of 101 receivers who averaged 20 or more routes run per game. Last season, his TPRR dropped to 0.124, giving Dotson back-to-back seasons in which he’s shown an inability to earn a high rate of targets. Dotson may have more to offer than we’ve seen in his first two seasons, but the breakout campaign his truthers are hoping for may not be in the cards for the former first-round pick.
Catch the ball. Fall down. Repeat. This has been the formula for Zach Ertz throughout much of his career, particularly over the last few seasons. Ertz returned from a devastating knee injury he suffered in Week 10 during the 2022 season to open 2023 as the Cardinals’ starting tight end. After catching 27 passes for 187 yards and one touchdown in seven games, Ertz requested his release following the emergence of Trey McBride in hopes of catching on with a contender for the remainder of the season.
Instead of immediately joining a new team, Ertz spent the rest of the regular season as a free agent before signing with the Lions ahead of the NFC championship game. His contract expired six days later after the Lions lost to the 49ers.
Ertz benefits from knowing Kliff Kingsbury’s offensive system after the Eagles traded him to the Cardinals in 2021. He’s a reliable safety valve in the short areas of the field, but his best days are almost certainly behind him. He PPR scammed his way to two TE1 finishes in his seven games with the Cardinals last season but averaged just 7.4 fantasy points per game. Fantasy managers who opt to kick the tight end can down the road may be able to squeeze some late-round value out of Ertz early in the season, but there are higher-upside players to be had at the position.
Rookies Luke McCaffrey and Ben Sinnott are expected to see significant work in their rookie seasons, with McCaffrey likely having the inside edge on early snaps. The Commanders surprised everyone when they took the former Rice Owl and brother to Christian McCaffrey with the 100th overall pick in this year’s draft after he totaled 71-992-13 in his final season. McCaffrey is a former quarterback turned receiver who totaled more than 1,700 receiving yards and 19 touchdowns in his two seasons as a receiver. He’s an impressive athlete (9.44 RAS) who could open the year as the Commanders’ starting slot receiver. He can be left off the fantasy radar this draft season but is worth monitoring once the regular season gets underway.
Sinnott is a tight end/fullback hybrid who Commanders GM Adam Peters comped to 49ers fullback Kyle Juszczyk. It’s high praise for the rookie, but you don’t need to play many years of fantasy to know Juszczyk doesn’t offer any fantasy upside. Fortunately, Sinnott should offer more pass-catching upside than Juszczyk. In his final two seasons at Kansas State, he totaled 79-1,116-10 through the air while running a route on 87.1 percent of his passing snaps. Of the 769 offensive snaps he played last season, Sinnott saw 483 snaps as an inline tight end and 168 snaps out of the slot, per PFF. Sinnott unseating Ertz as the eventual starting tight end feels like a matter of when, not if, assuming he adjusts well to the pro game.
Running Game
RB: Brian Robinson, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez
OL (L-R): Brandon Coleman, Nick Allegretti, Tyler Biadasz, Sam Cosmi, Andrew Wylie
Brian Robinson rushed for 178-733-5 (4.1 YPC) in 15 games in his first full season as a starter. He also surprised with a receiving line of 36-368-4 and finished as the RB21 in fantasy points per game (13.5) in PPR leagues. As a runner, Robinson was close to the league average. Among 49 running backs who saw 100 or more carries, Robinson ranked 21st in YCO/ATT (2.93) and 16th in missed tackles forced rate (20.8 percent). His 4.5 percent breakaway rush rate was good for 22nd in the league.
Robinson has received praise this offseason for his work as a pass-catcher, but it’s hard to imagine him in a reliable pass-catching role with Austin Ekeler now in town. Even if he does catch another 30 to 35 passes, I’d expect some massive regression from Robinson in the receiving game. He benefitted from a string of wildly fortunate plays to get to his 368 yards last season, as two of his receptions went for 99 yards in a Week 10 game against the Seahawks. Robinson had eight receptions of 20-plus yards, which is twice as many as Christian McCaffrey had despite his catching 67 passes. Robinson feels locked into his role as an early-down runner and should have plenty of upside in the red zone. However, his receiving production accounted for 47.9 percent of his PPR production. Assuming some regression in the passing game, another top-24 finish could be hard to come by for the third-year back.
Austin Ekeler is being counted on to replace Antonio Gibson but could see more work than expected if he returns to his old form. Now 29 years old, Ekeler struggled in his final season with the Chargers, averaging 3.5 YPC on the ground while posting a career-low 4.6 yards per touch. A high ankle sprain suffered in Week 1 may have been the culprit for some of Ekeler’s season-long struggles, but there’s no denying he’s past the age apex where running backs begin to fall off.
Playing in an offense that’s not expected to be as explosive as the Chargers’ offenses Ekeler enjoyed playing in from 2019-2023, Ekeler’s fantasy ceiling isn’t what it once was. We also know high-volume rushing quarterbacks — which we expect Daniels to be — don’t target their running backs as often as we’d like.
Ekeler first broke out in 2019, when he totaled 1,550 yards from scrimmage and 11 touchdowns while finishing as the RB6 in fantasy points per game. Over the last five years, he’s been the beneficiary of a 29 percent snap share, which ranks 16th amongst running backs. For some perspective, Bijan Robinson had a 29 percent snap share as a rookie with the Falcons. Brian Robinson is the best running back Ekeler has shared a backfield since Melvin Gordon. In fact, Ekeler’s breakout came when Gordon opted to sit out games in hopes of getting a new deal from the Chargers. When his efforts fell flat, and Ekeler began going off, Gordon reported to the team, but Ekeler’s contributions through the passing game resulted in him going for 92-993-8 through the air.
We can’t expect that level of production from Ekeler again. While he should still see plenty of work in the passing game, the days of a nearly 30 percent opportunity share appear long gone. He could still PPR scam his way to a handful of RB1 weeks, but his ceiling is likely that of a low-end RB2 or a high-end RB3.
Second-year running back Chris Rodriguez appears locked into the third running back role for the Commanders. The former Kentucky product rushed for 51-247-2 as a rookie, with his best performance coming on a 10-58-2 line against the Jets in Week 16. Rodriguez’s fantasy upside would be most felt if Robinson were ever to miss time, but he doesn’t hold any stand-alone value at this time.
Win Total
The Commanders have the 13th easiest schedule this season based on predicted Vegas win totals per Sharp Football Analysis. After going 4-13 last season, their projected win total per DraftKings Sportsbook sits at 6.5 wins, but they have a tough challenge ahead of them against a stout AFC North on top of facing the Eagles and Cowboys twice a year. Some potentially favorable matchups lie within the NFC South, but the Commanders will need to make a giant leap in their first year under Quinn to top this win total. While the offense has added some exciting pieces — particularly in Jayden Daniels, the secondary didn’t see much of an overhaul, and the pass rush could struggle to generate pressure after losing key players over the last year. For the Commanders to top their projected win total, it’s likely going to take a lot of things going right to go from a four-win team to a fringe .500 team or better.