The highs and lows of watching a new rookie class can bring a lot of fantasy football uncertainty. While it’s fun to have shiny new players to plug into lineups, their immediate usage and trends may not have fantasy managers jumping for joy just yet. Here, I aim to give you an update on how rookies are doing and their fantasy values. A monthly report will provide analysis on these, with October’s discussing the top movers in terms of fantasy opportunity at each position.
Click here for September’s Rookie Report.
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Quarterbacks
Handy-dandy Quarterback Tracker:
| Player | Completion % | Passing Yards | Yards per Attempt | TD : INT | Rushing Yards | Total TD |
| Jayden Daniels | 75.3% | 1,404 | 8.5 | 6 : 2 | 322 | 10 |
| Caleb Williams | 65.3% | 1,317 | 6.6 | 9 : 5 | 169 | 9 |
| Bo Nix | 61.2% | 1,246 | 5.6 | 5 : 5 | 255 | 8 |
| Drake Maye | 58.5% | 265 | 6.5 | 3 : 2 | 50 | 3 |
| Spencer Rattler | 62.7% | 415 | 5.5 | 1 : 2 | 61 | 1 |
Stats via Pro Football Reference (Updated through Week 7’s Nix-Rattler showdown)
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels has consistently performed for the 4-2 Commanders, looking like the best rookie quarterback thus far. He ranks first among rookies in every metric from the above table and is a top-five fantasy quarterback this season. Kliff Kingsbury has him making anticipation throws and hitting his reads while Daniels has shown the ability to scramble and make throws on the run. Daniels and Terry McLaurin have benefitted from each other, with McLaurin putting up fantasy production on-par with his career-best 2020. Daniels fantasy managers are thrilled with what they have gotten from him by October.
Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Caleb Williams has made the biggest jump from month one to two among the rookie quarterbacks. Struggling in a stagnant offense early on, Williams has become a playmaker and put up 530 passing yards, six touchdowns, and back-to-back top-seven fantasy finishes over his last two games. He has a passer rating above 100 each of the last three weeks and the Bears are at 4-2. The main positive development has been his success throwing the ball down field more, more than doubling his yards per attempt from the first two weeks of the season through the last four. Williams has played himself back into the low-end QB1 conversation.
Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
The Broncos offense is bottom-four in total yards per game (as of Week 6), much of it coming from questionable throws and a stagnant passing game. While Bo Nix is still the Broncos’ starter, he is dangerously teetering into the Will Levis/Aidan O’Connell tier. He averaged the least yards per attempt among the rookie quarterbacks prior to posting nearly double his seasonal number against the banged-up Saints on Thursday. Nix’s rushing ability boosts him to a weekly low-end QB2 status.
The Rest: The other rookies to start are Drake Maye and Spencer Rattler. Maye tossed three touchdowns and two interceptions in a loss to the Texans in Week 6. A third of his attempts were beyond 10 yards, including a 40-yard touchdown to Kayshon Boutte. Fantasy managers would be happy with his production, as his performance showed he can be in the QB2 mix. Rattler is only a starter until Derek Carr returns, so fantasy managers can value him as a fantasy QB3 amidst the heavily-injured Saints for now.
Running Backs
Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Following a trend from the first month, Bucky Irving has been a more efficient rusher than Rachaad White. He is averaging 5.7 yards per carry to White’s 3.7. Irving finally got a start in Week 6, totaling 105 yards and a score, but was upstaged by Sean Tucker’s 192 and two scores. Moving forward, the Bucs backfield may become more of a committee. Irving has made enough of his opportunity to be a fantasy RB2 with White out and a FLEX option with White in.
Tyrone Tracy, New York Giants
A former college receiver, Tyrone Tracy brings burst to the Giants’ backfield. His had 18 touches for 130 yards in Week 5, followed up by a less efficient, but productive 17-touch, 107-yard Week 6. Devin Singletary’s return will dent Tracy’s fantasy viability, but his workhorse production may have earned him more than the 20-30 percent of snaps he received Weeks 1-4. Tracy is worth keeping on fantasy benches as a valuable handcuff with the potential for FLEX value.
Ray Davis, Buffalo Bills
The 2024 running back class is filled with fantasy handcuffs, and Ray Davis is one of the most valuable. His game involves a lot of power, a good fit next to Josh Allen. Davis finally got an extended look Week 6 with James Cook out, totaling 23 touches for 152 yards. Cook’s return will relegate Davis back to a reserve role, but now we’ve seen how he can be utilized with 20 carries on just over 60 percent of snaps. Davis could carve out a larger role down the road, but is a premier handcuff in a good offense for now.
More Handcuffs: Jaylen Wright (Dolphins), Trey Benson (Cardinals), Braelon Allen (Jets), Blake Corum (Rams), Isaac Guerendo (49ers), and Audric Estime (Broncos) are all handcuffs with fantasy start value should the backs ahead of them miss time. MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) is in there as well, though he has been dealing with an ankle injury. Jonathon Brooks (Panthers) is the prize at the end of the ACL recovery road that fantasy managers have stashed away on IR. There is still time for him to return to play, but Brooks is an intriguing stash for late in the fantasy season.
Wide Receivers
Tier 1 - Weekly Fantasy Performers
The wide receiver position has many more fantasy-relevant players to eye than other skill positions, so a tier breakdown of fantasy relevance is more valuable here. The below graph shows the season-long fantasy production of receivers that managers are considering for weekly lineups – Malik Nabers (Giants), Brian Thomas Jr. (Jaguars), Marvin Harrison Jr. (Cardinals), Xavier Worthy (Chiefs), Ladd McConkey (Chargers), and Rome Odunze (Bears).
Nabers belongs in a tier of his own, still ranking No. 1 in PPR fantasy points among rookie receivers despite missing two games due to a concussion. His wildly high 13 targets per game gives not just rookie WR1 ceiling, but overall WR1 ceiling.
The rest of the group are not auto-starts. Thomas is a productive target in a struggling Jags offense. Harrison is a touchdown-dependent play that will require some patience, especially after suffering a concussion in Week 6. Both are in the WR2 mix.
Meanwhile, Worthy is a big-play guy for the Chiefs who has not seen a bump in targets since Rashee Rice went down. He is a boom-or-bust WR3. McConkey is in a low pass-volume offense seeing a steady six targets per game. Odunze is in a Bears offense that’s been turning it up, but is facing target competition from veterans DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. Both McConkey and Odunze are also in the WR3 range.
Tier 2 - Next Up
This tier of receivers lies in the fantasy WR4-5 mix, coming into lineups should another receiver on their team miss time. Keon Coleman (Bills) and Xavier Legette (Panthers) lead this group, each with a pair of receiving touchdowns and showing flashes of fantasy relevance throughout the season. Coleman’s chances have decreased with the Bills acquiring Amari Cooper, but Legette is in line for more chances as the Panthers are in another developmental season.
Jordan Whittington (Rams) filled into Cooper Kupp’s slot role, taking advantage of Kupp’s and Puka Nacua’s absences and tallying 18 targets between Weeks 4 and 5. With Kupp returning soon, Whittington will return to fantasy benches, but is worth keeping an eye on.
Ja’Lynn Polk (Patriots) and Adonai Mitchell (Colts) are both players yet to see significant usage. The Pats’ coaching staff is keeping Polk in the mix and Drake Maye is a quarterback upgrade for Polk’s receiving prospects. Meanwhile, Mitchell is still the No. 3 wideout in Indy with Michael Pittman (back) somehow not missing a beat, but both are worth noting as late-season target earners.
Tier 3 - Breakouts Soon?
The final tier of receivers here are guys worth keeping an eye on that may not be fantasy relevant just yet. Jalen Coker (Panthers) has seen more opportunities with Adam Thielen out. Bub Means (Saints) is also in line for more opportunities with Rashid Shaheed (knee) out for the season. The Broncos’ Devaughn Vele and Troy Franklin are in the mix for a murky Broncos receiving corps.
Tight Ends
Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders
Once again, this is a short section. Brock Bowers remains the top tight end, and with Davante Adams out of Vegas, he is on track to exceed 100 receptions on the season. He is a top-five tight end play the rest of the season and a top-three tight end for those that play in Dynasty leagues.
The Rest: The Bengals’ Erick All has seen some light usage this season, catching 16 of 17 targets for 102 yards. Mike Gesicki is still the lead tight end, but All can be rostered as a deep-league dart throw and is a better value for Dynasty leagues.
The Panthers’ Ja’Tavion Sanders has caught 13 of 18 targets for 90 yards, seeing more usage with Andy Dalton at quarterback. With 12 targets over his last two games, Sanders is a deep-cut streamer.
The Giants’ Theo Johnson is the last rookie tight end with over 10 receptions, though he should remain on fantasy benches this season unless Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson miss time.
