I want the easy stuff.
In evaluating rookie wide receivers — and wideouts generally — I’m most interested in guys who will see at least some short and intermediate targets to go along with high-value downfield shots. I want receivers who have at least some slot usage. I want pass catchers who are used in the middle of the field, since, as you may know, passing the ball to the middle of the field is by far the most efficient way to matriculate the football downfield.
The modern NFL is, more than anything, a check-down league. The safeties have never been higher, the defensive coordinators have never been more determined to stop any and all over-the-top big-time passing plays, and teams are capitulating with short throw after short throw. That includes Patrick Mahomes, who has rebranded as an Alex Smith-style game manager and won two straight Super Bowls. That’s the thing about a check-down offense: It works.
If you’re skeptical of my claim, consider Bills coaches spent most of last season begging Josh Allen to always take the easy throw. Just don’t mess up, they begged. Consider check-down performance artist Jake Browning had the league’s tenth best adjusted drop back EPA. Consider Tua Tagovailoa had the fourth best drop back EPA, and Brock Purdy led all passers in EPA. Jared Goff was eighth. You get it. The cool kids are checking down and letting the elite pass catchers do all the work. Ask anyone.
So we’re going to want wideouts involved in the short-area passing game. Below is my analysis of 2024 rookie receivers through the lens of this check down era of pro football.
Marvin Harrison, Jr. (ARI)
Harrison enters an Arizona offense with no target competition outside of Trey McBride. In fact, McBride and Harrison could make up one of the league’s most condensed target trees in 2024.
The hyper-efficient Harrison — who had FBS’s fifth highest yards per route run last season — probably needs to remain highly efficient in what shapes up to be a run-first Cardinals offense. From Week 10-18 last season, only the Falcons and Steelers had a lower neutral pass rate than the Kyler Murray-led Cards. Arizona passed on a meager 48 percent of its plays while leading last season. They had the eighth fewest pass attempts (555) in 2023.
Harrison is a proven target eater. He saw a target on 32.4 percent of his routes in 2023. Over his two seasons as an Ohio State starter, MHJ was targeted on 30.9 percent of his routes. That’s good. Real good.
Harrison’s best case scenario might hinge on Murray becoming something better than a bottom-of-the-barrel intermediate area passer. The one worry for Harrison’s fantasy prospects in Arizona is little to no usage in the slot, and a dependance on longer throws near the boundary -- a bad bet for consistent fantasy production. Hopefully a wideout of Harrison’s caliber can overcome a lack of offensive passing volume and an underwhelming passer.
Malik Nabers (NYG)
Second in yards per route run across FBS schools in 2023, Nabers gobbled up short-area targets during his final season at LSU, lining up in the slot on 57 percent of his pass routes during his time at LSU. More than Half of his targets in 2023 came behind the line of scrimmage or within nine yards of the line. He was, in short, ludicrously productive on those short area opportunities.
Nabers’ 30.6 percent targets per route run (TPRR) rate was very much in line with Harrison’s target-commanding ability.
Nabers’ final-season usage and productivity at or around the line offers hope that he can thrive in the NFL even with Daniel Jones throwing him the ball. There is certainly a scenario in which Nabers — with no meaningful target competition — sees almost no downfield usage in the Giants offense and still proves an elite fantasy producer with never-ending schemed up looks from Jones, or whoever quarterbacks the Giants in 2024. Nabers, I think, is custom-made for a check down league like the NFL (and a quarterback who does not, under any circumstances, throw deep).
Rome Odunze (CHI)
Drafting Odunze in the first round means the Bears are giving Caleb Williams — with Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, Odunze, and Cole Kmet — every chance to succeed as a rookie. It’s in stark contrast to most rookie QBs’ dire situations.
Notching the nation’s tenth highest yards per route run with a fourth highest average depth of target among 101 qualifying wideouts is quite the feat. He didn’t see a lot of easy stuff at Washington; 65 percent of his 2023 targets were beyond ten yards downfield. Odunze’s 26.5 percent targets per route run last season was well short of Nabers and Harrison, though that might be expected with his target competition in the insanely productive Washington offense.
The unavoidable issue, of course, is that Moore and Allen are walking, talking target share blackholes that might leave the rookie without ample opportunity in 2024. Allen vacuums up intermediate looks and Moore can and has been schemed the ball anywhere on the field at any time.
This is hardly a permanent situation — Allen is entering his age-33 season — but it is certainly a factor headed into Odunze’s rookie campaign. One factor I may not be considering in Odunze’s range of outcomes is the Bears becoming a massively pass-heavy offense, something like the Bengals or Chiefs.
Brian Thomas (JAC)
Thomas will probably inherit Calvin Ridley’s role in the Jacksonville offense. If you remember anything about Ridley’s forgettable 2023 season with the Jags, it might be this: He lined up on the outside on nearly every route and saw low-percentage target after low-percentage target within six inches of the boundary line. It was a decidedly bad role for fantasy.
The playmaking Thomas — stronger, bigger, and faster than the aging veteran Ridley — might be able to convert a big play or two in such a role. This is the guy who somehow caught 17 touchdowns on 68 grabs during his final season at LSU (while competing for targets with Malik Nabers). This is also the guy who was targeted on a less-than-inspiring 18 percent of his pass routes in 2023. Over his LSU career, Thomas saw a target on 13 percent of his routes. You are not inspired. Neither am I.
There’s a decent chance Thomas can overcome his under-developed route running and make the most out of Trevor Lawrence deep shots in 2024. Like any downfield burner, Thomas will vacillate between fantasy week winner and infuriating fantasy frustration.
Xavier Worthy (KC)
That the Chiefs traded up to nab Worthy is notable. KC’s front office and coaching staff fully understood what they’ve been missing over the past two seasons, since Tyreek Hill was dealt to Miami. Patrick Mahomes has had no one to make downfield plays. Out of pure necessity, Mahomes has transformed into a check down specialist and a game manager. It’s a role that has netted him back-to-back Super Bowls.
Worthy’s entrance into the Kansas City offense could deliver something of a throwback to the halcyon days of Mahomes winging it deep to the lightning fast Hill. Worthy, if Combine 40 times are any indication, is primed to be the fastest player in NFL history when he makes his Chiefs debut this fall.
Worthy’s strong 26.8 percent targets per route run rate in his final season at Texas suggests he’ll be much more than a situational deep threat for Mahomes. Worthy’s Texas career TPRR (26.2 percent) is a good-enough sign he can get open and draw targets anywhere at any time. That he led FBS in yards after the catch per reception is more than enough confirmation that Worthy can make big plays with short throws, like Hill did in the Chiefs offense. Sixty-one percent of Worthy’s 2023 targets came behind the LOS or within nine yards of the line. Rashee Rice’s hefty targets per route run rate is bound to dip with Worthy’s addition to the Mahomes passing attack.
Ricky Pearsall (SF)
Pearsall, considered a technician and a wideout willing to go over the middle to make tough grabs, has major production profile questions coming out of Florida, by way of Arizona State.
Pearsall in 2023 ranked 142nd out of 190 qualifying receivers in YAC per reception while posting a middling yards per route run. His TPRR left quite a bit to be desired over his final two seasons at Florida; in 2023, Pearsall was targeted on just 20 percent of his routes. Even if he uses his impressive technique to get open, how many looks can Pearsall get in a balanced Niners offense dominated by Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk? And that’s not to mention the target-commanding Christian McCaffrey. Pearsall’s outlook changes, naturally, if the 49ers pull off a trade that sends the disgruntled Aiyuk elsewhere.
Malachi Corley (NYJ)
Corley, taken by the Jets in the third round, is going to fit quite well in this era of check down passing. The self-proclaimed King of YAC (the metrics confirm this claim), Corley in 2023 was fifth in the nation in yards after the catch per reception and 14th in yards per route run.
The knock on Corley is that his yards per route run was artificially inflated by a nonstop flow of short targets (his final-season aDOT was 5.8). This critique would hold some weight if the Jets drafted Corley to be their boundary-dwelling downfield speed merchant. But they didn’t. He’s going to continue eating up check downs in the pros. In a Jets offense quarterbacked by a 40 year old with an atrophied left leg, I’m guessing there’s going to be plenty of short passes to go around. Corely has every chance to carve out a role as New York’s primary slot receiver, and with it, a valuable fantasy role with only Garrett Wilson ahead of him in the wideout target pecking order.
Corley, solidly built at 215 pounds, is a proven target getter. He led Western Kentucky last season with a dominant 31 percent target share, higher than his 2022 target share of 27.7 percent. His TPRR of 32 percent jumps off the spreadsheet for a third-round selection. And for the haters: Corley led the Hilltoppers in deep targets last year.
Another case against Corley is his level of collegiate competition. And yes, the Hilltoppers were not squaring off against Alabama every week. Corley did, however, roast the Ohio State secondary last September to the tune of eight receptions, 88 yards, and a touchdown on 14 targets. Corley saw 38 percent of the team’s targets that day.
Fantasy managers would do well to remember this summer that Jets general manager Joe Douglas tried several times to trade up to secure Corley in the draft. The Jets didn’t add Corley in the third round to sit behind Xavier Gipson and Allen Lazard, who is by most measurements the worst receiver in the NFL.
Xavier Legette (CAR)
A late breakout with major questions about the finer points of playing wide receiver, Legette enters a Panthers offense that will almost certainly be among the NFL’s two or three run heaviest.
Legette’s 17.7 yards per reception and 3.15 yards per route run in his final collegiate season are impressive, no doubt. And his workout metrics were astounding for a guy of his size. Legette’s TPRR (24.3 percent) in his final season at South Carolina was fine for a gut with an aDOT of nearly 14. In 2023, he saw 26.3 percent of the Gamecocks’ targets, including a whopping 55 percent of the team’s downfield targets.
Where Legette is going to see opportunity in a hyper-conservative Carolina offense with two target hogs at wideout (Adam Thielen and Diontae Johnson), I have no idea. Legette will certainly make flashy downfield plays in 2024. Guessing when those will come is not a game fantasy managers are going to enjoy.
Roman Wilson (PIT)
Wilson has always struck me as a dog. And dogs command targets. In an almost comically run-heavy Michigan offense, Wilson was targeted on 25.4 percent of his pass routes in 2023. That he totaled 55 targets across the entire season is another matter entirely.
Operating from the slot on two-thirds of his routes, Wilson led the Wolverines last season with a modest 19.7 percent target share. While that’s not a great number, Wilson was easily the most efficient of Jim Harbaugh’s receivers in 2023. His final-season aDOT of nearly 14 isn’t exactly what I’m looking for in a pass catcher who will see easy, short area targets. That aDOT will have to decrease a bit if Wilson is going to prove a reliable fantasy option in Arthur Smith’s run-first offense.
Ladd McConkey (LAC)
In healthy games last season, McConkey posted a TPRR of 24 percent, leading Georgia pass catchers. His 32 percent target share in those healthy outings is slightly more impressive than his TPRR.
In a healthier 2022 campaign, McConkey was targeted on 22 percent of his pass routes. It’s not a terrible number, but well short of elite territory. It makes me question if McConkey is destined to dominate targets in a Chargers offense short of top-end pass catchers.
Keon Coleman (BUF)
The Bills rookie, whose personality will surely win the hearts and minds of every fantasy manager on the planet in due time, had a so-so target earning profile in his final collegiate season. Coleman skeptics and boosters alike can and will use these numbers to back up their respective stances on the rookie.
Coleman, whose 2023 yards per route run was outside the nation’s top-200 wideouts, saw a target on 22.7 percent of his pass routes last year. The year before at Michigan State, that number was 22.8 percent.
While Coleman led Florida State in targets in 2023, it was Johnny Wilson — who missed two games — who led the team’s pass catchers with a 29.3 percent TPRR. Wilson’s yards per route run was among the nation’s 40 highest among wideouts. There’s no question that Wilson was the efficient playmaker in the Seminoles offense last season. If he hadn’t missed those two games, Wilson (very) likely would have been the team’s top receiver.
Coleman will probably see usage on the boundary and in the slot in Buffalo’s offense, and a dearth of high-end pass catchers could open up more opportunity than first thought. Whatever your take on Coleman’s fantasy prospects, his shaky target-earning ability has to be a gnawing concern.
Jermaine Burton (CIN)
Burton’s target profile is on the bleak side. He had a final-season TPRR of just 19.6 percent. Over his two seasons at Alabama, Burton drew a target on 17.7 percent of his routes. The team’s top receiver, Isaiah Bond, was targeted on 23.5 percent of his routes.
It’s hard to say quite yet how Burton will be used in the pass-heavy Bengals offense. He ran 74 percent of his routes at Alabama from out wide, likely meaning he won’t be bumped into the slot as a Tyler Boyd replacement in the Cincinnati offense. Perhaps it means Ja’Marr Chase will take a more permanent spot in the slot, in which case he’s going to score approximately 1 million fantasy points in 2024.
Troy Franklin (DEN)
Franklin, per the numbers, is a baller. That he fell into the fourth round probably means NFL teams got caught up on workout metrics instead of simply drafting highly productive players. So it goes.
Franklin in 2023 led Oregon with a 27.7 percent TPRR, a big increase over his 2022 TPRR of 21.7 percent. Fifth among all receivers in yards per route run last year — just a shade behind McConkey and Nabers — Franklin totaled at least nine targets in nine of his 14 games in 2023. He got a bunch of easy looks for the Ducks, with 48.2 percent of his final-season targets coming behind the line of scrimmage or within nine yards of the LOS.
In Denver, Franklin will reunite with Oregon teammate Bo Nix in a Broncos offense with precious little target competition (since Sean Payton appears uninterested in Marvin Mims). A Payton/Nix offense predicated on quick, short passing could deliver plenty of looks for Franklin while Courtland Sutton and (maybe) Mims run the fantasy-unfriendly downfield stuff.
Adonai Mitchell (IND)
Mitchell’s promising 2021 season at Georgia saw the rangy speedster post a TPRR of 22.2 percent — an impressive number for a wideout with a 15 aDOT. Things, as you might know, fell apart from there.
Following an injury-marred 2022 season, Mitchell transferred to Texas and was targeted on a ho-hum 17.8 percent of his pass routes as a downfield threat. He did have flashes of target-commanding dominance, however. Against Kansas in Week 5, Mitchell was targeted on 36 percent of his routes on his way to 141 yards and a touchdown. In Week 10 against Kansas State, Mitchell’s TPRR was 31.2 percent; he had 150 yards and a score. Maybe he just needs to face teams from Kansas every week. This is analytics.
Mitchell, in a Colts offense that will be near the bottom of the league in passing volume, is probably going to struggle mightily to see anything close to consistent looks.
