2023 Stats (Rank)
Points per game: 15.8 (29th)
Total yards per game: 268.6 (31st)
Plays per game: 61.9 (21st)
Pass Attempts + Sacks per game: 39.1 (5th)
Drop back EPA per play: -0.25 (32nd)
Rush attempts per game: 22.8 (29th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.19 (29th)
Coaching Staff
Robert Saleh was thrown a major curve ball in Week 1 of last season when Aaron Rodgers went out for the year with a torn Achilles. On the heels of back-to-back 7-10 campaigns, the pressure is on for the Jets to deliver. Despite the below .500 records, the Jets have finished with a top five defensive unit in the past two seasons and now it’s time for the offense to catch up. None of the three quarterbacks (Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian and Tim Boyle) that played the majority of the quarterback snaps last season are back with the team this year and that speaks volumes. They combined for a miserable 3,371 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Saleh seemed to have learned from those mistakes and brought in a reliable veteran backup in Tyrod Taylor. The Jets made several acquisitions (Tyron Smith, Mike Williams, Olu Fashanu, Javon Kinlaw and Hassan Reddick) on both sides of the ball that say “we need to win now.” The biggest questions will be about the offense that oozes talent at the skill positions.
Nathaniel Hackett is back as offensive coordinator and that’s because he was talent-strapped at quarterback. Rodgers is his guy, and he is Rodgers’ guy, so they need at least one season to make something happen. While the offense only averaged 171.7 passing yards per game (30th in NFL) and 96.9 rushing yards per game (22nd in NFL), Hackett knew to do one thing: Get his best players the ball. That held true for guys like Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson, but the 1.9 turnovers per game (third most in the league) were too much to overcome. Hackett and Rodgers are tied at the hip, replicating their success from Green Bay is vital to the Jets making a real push.
Passing Game
QB: Aaron Rodgers, Tyrod Taylor, Jordan Travis
WR: Garrett Wilson, Jason Brownlee
WR: Mike Williams, Allen Lazard
WR: Xavier Gipson/Malachi Corley
TE: Tyler Conklin, Jeremy Ruckert, Kenny Yeboah
There’s no question that every skill player on the Jets becomes a lot more fantasy relevant with Rodgers at quarterback. The trade for Rodgers in 2023 was made to fill a big void. That was cut prematurely when Rodgers went down for the season after attempting only one pass for the Jets. Despite being mediocre in his last full season (by his standards) in 2022, Rodgers will be welcomed back with open arms. In that season, Rodgers threw double-digit interceptions (12) for the first time since 2010 after coming off back to back MVP seasons. Although he finished as fantasy’s QB13 in total points in 2022, a better barometer of his performance can be measured by the fact that he was QB23 on a points per game basis. Coming into 2024 though, he has new life, new offensive weapons and a point to prove that he’s still among the league’s best. Working with one of the best young WR/RB duos in the league in Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, Rodgers should be able to hover around the top-15 QB range in fantasy this season. Newly acquired Mike Williams will be the team’s new WR2 (after the Allen Lazard experiment failed) and he’ll have a revamped offensive line to work with.
Speaking of receivers, it’ll be a nice group of young guys and veterans led by Garrett Wilson. While he was able to log his second consecutive 1,000 yard season, he wasn’t consistent fantasy-wise, finishing as WR33 in fantasy on a points per game basis. Much of that is to blame on the combination of Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian and Tim Boyle. Many feel (and I tend to agree) that this will be the year Wilson truly breaks out and becomes that top-10 fantasy receiver we know he has the talent to be. Williams was brought in to play opposite of Wilson and give the Jets another downfield threat who can apply pressure to defenses in the red zone. His last two seasons have been injury riddled so that’ll be his biggest obstacle heading into the 2024 season. Williams will need to show he can be any form of his old self before we jump to put him on our fantasy rosters. People will likely go for more upside and that’ll be linked to rookie Malachi Corley, who is a do-it-all type of player. He’ll compete with Xavier Gipson (who the Jets really like) for the slot role. Lazard, Brownlee and Irvin Charles will round out the depth in the receiver room.
At tight end, the picture should be clearer now. Tyler Conklin won’t have nearly the amount of competition for snaps and targets like he did with C.J. Uzomah. Add in the fact that he’ll have much better quarterback play and you’ve got a solid streaming tight end option. In 2023, Conklin finished as TE18 in total fantasy points, which if you look at his situation is kind of impressive. He’ll easily be the offense’s go-to tight end with Ruckert and Yeboah falling in line. Second-year player Zack Kuntz figures to battle for some playing time as well.
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Running Game
RB: Breece Hall, Braelon Allen, Isaiah Davis, Israel Abanikanda
OL (L-R): Tyron Smith, John Simpson, Joe Tippmann, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Morgan Moses/Olu Fashanu
The main challenger coming into 2024 to take the RB1 throne away from Christian McCaffrey is undoubtedly Hall. In fact, CMC was the only running back to outscore Hall in fantasy last season and it was by over 100 points. Hall, however, was the most dominant player in the fantasy playoffs last season averaging 25.8 points per game from Weeks 14-18. This season, expect things to be a bit more easy for him as the Jets have made offensive line upgrades while also getting back an MVP quarterback. While Hall will handle most of the touches in the backfield, there’s now quality depth behind him when you factor in rookies Allen and Davis. You’ll want to draft one of these guys (likely Allen) as they’ll be Hall’s primary backup. Second-year player, Abanikanda showed some flashes last season, but the new blood in the Jets’ backfield may fend him off.
The offensive line should almost be night and day from last season as far as depth goes. The Jets suffered a massive amount of injuries along the line in 2023 and they made sure it wouldn’t bite them again. Despite signing Moses and Smith at the tackle spots, the Jets still opted to draft Fashanu who was one of the best linemen entering the 2024 NFL Draft. While the Jets offense should be able to produce at a decent rate, how the line performs will be the difference in a top tier offense or just an “OK” unit.
Win Total
While many have beef with the Jets because of off-season drama surrounding Aaron Rogers, that won’t count towards wins and losses on the field. With the Over (-150)/Under (+125) for the Jets’ wins set at 9.5, it’s going to be a close one. In their first eight games they’ll face teams (Vikings, Broncos and Patriots twice) with either a rookie or journeyman quarterback. In that stretch they’ll also face a Titans team with a win total of 6.5. With that being said, the Jets could realistically start off the season with a 6-2 record, It will certainly get tougher down the stretch as they face more explosive offenses like the Texans, Cardinals, Colts, Bills and Dolphins twice. They’ll stumble a bit in the second half of the season, but their fast start should propel them to at least 10 wins in my opinion.
