2023 Stats (rank)
Offensive Summary
Points per game: 15.6 (30th)
Total yards per game: 280 (29th)
Plays per game: 62.2 (20th)
Pass Attempts + Sacks per game: 35.5 (20th)
Dropback EPA per play: -0.14 (29th)
Rush attempts per game: 26.7 (16th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.21 (31st)
Coaching Staff
There’s not much to say about the 2023 Giants’ offense. The quarterback started six games. The offensive line didn’t block a soul. The leading receiver posted 770 yards. The best skill player from that sorry group, Saquon Barkley, moved on in free agency. The second best, Darren Waller, retired. Looking to replace Barkley and Waller’s lost play-making ability, the G-Men used a lottery pick on wideout Malik Nabers. They threw money at the blocking problem on the open market. For better or worse, Daniel Jones will be back under center, albeit under pressure from journeyman backup Drew Lock. To cap it all off, head coach Brian Daboll appears poised to reassume play-calling duties from OC Mike Kafka. Although it is tempting to believe this group couldn’t possibly be worse than last year, it is safe to say they probably won’t be much better.
Passing Game
QB: Daniel Jones, Drew Lock
WR: Malik Nabers, Jalin Hyatt
WR: Darius Slayton, Isaiah McKenzie
WR: Wan’Dale Robinson, Allen Robinson
TE: Daniel Bellinger, Theo Johnson, Jack Stoll
The problems start at the top, where Jones not only regressed from his outlier 2022 last season, he descended to new depths. “Danny Dimes” managed six INTs compared to only two passing scores across six starts and averaged fewer than six yards per attempt for the first time in his career. Perhaps his YPA would have normalized over a larger sample size, but the problem is, normalization for The Dimesman is a career mark of 6.6. That’s well below replacement level, as is his career 3.3 touchdown percentage. Jones still averaged more than 50 yards rushing in ’23, but he’s now 27 years old with a torn ACL on his ledger. That does not add up to a player who will be cut loose in 2024. With neither of his threats quite adding up to “dual,” Jones is a bottom-barrel streamer who could quite possibly lose his job to Lock.
The question, of course, is not Jones’ fantasy prospects, but how he might affect the value of those around him. Nabers would have been the No. 1 receiver in most draft classes, but most classes do not include the son of Marvin Harrison. A rocket-ship accelerator, Nabers is also an elite tackle breaker. He is versatile, checking in roughly 50-50 between the slot and boundary. A man-coverage beater, Nabers is an adept hand fighter. Almost as dominant deep as he is at tacking on extra yards in the short-to-intermediate areas of the field, Nabers has all the makings of a “Jones-proof” wideout. There just remains the possibility that the only reason this offense doesn’t go off the rails is because it’s never on them to begin with. Nabers’ target floor makes it difficult to believe he will produce outside the top 24, but Jones and his accompanying baggage keep Nabers in the WR18-20 range.
The Giants’ leading receiver each of the past two seasons and three of the past four, Darius Slayton has long been the NFL’s least-loved de facto No. 1 wideout, including by his own team. Never a central part of the plan, Slayton always ends up there, anyways. Nabers is supposed to change all that, and it’s tough to believe he won’t. Even a poor Nabers campaign would have the rookie dominating touches and target share in an offense that will rely on the run and look to limit down-field mistakes from its conservative-yet-inaccurate quarterback(s). Slayton is someone who has long cried out for a change of scenery. That’s what it would take to make him WR4 relevant in re-draft.
Beyond Slayton are sophomore lid-lifter Jalin Hyatt and third-year manufactured touch merchant Wan’Dale Robinson. Hyatt was as advertised as a rookie, turning 23 receptions into a robust 373 yards. His issue is Nabers is now the undisputed big-play threat, while it would be difficult to find a worse quarterback for Hyatt’s skill-set than Jones. Hyatt drew offseason praise from Daboll for bulking up and playing faster, but he feels destined to remain a best ball only option who won’t come close to seeing enough targets to make noise in re-draft.
Like Hyatt, Robinson finds himself hurt by Nabers’ versatility. Not that he was an elite target commander before Nabers’ arrival. Robinson did find better health last season but no better efficiency. He ranked a distant 62nd in yards per route as he managed an eyesore 8.8 yards per reception. That would be good … for a running back. Still only 23, Robinson should be healthier while likely seeing easier looks behind target-magnet Nabers, but there are few scenarios where he breaks through for WR4 viability.
At tight end is a smoking crater where Waller used to be. Fourth-rounder Theo Johnson stands in at a mammoth 6-foot-6, 259 pounds but never caught more than 34 balls in a college campaign. He is an elite athlete, making him the kind of size/speed prospect who could pay dividends down the line in Dynasty. In re-draft, only third-year pro Daniel Bellinger has any shot at reaching TE2 status. Even then, he will be a matchup-based streamer as the fourth or fifth option in a conservative attack.
Running Game
RB: Devin Singletary, Eric Gray, Tyrone Tracy
OL (L-R): Andrew Thomas, Jermaine Eluemunor, John Michael Schmitz, Jon Runyan, Evan Neal
The Giants won’t have to worry about their running back being their best player in 2024. Arguably the league’s worst No. 1 back, Devin Singletary’s 216 carries and 898 yards rushing for the Texans last season were both new career highs, but he remained the replacement-level back he was in Buffalo. Singletary wishes he were replacement level as a receiver, as he remained abysmal on the pass-catching efficiency front. Signed simply as a veteran touch absorber for the G-Men, Singletary should get home as a workload-based RB3/FLEX, but the upside is nonexistent.
Fifth-round rookie Tyrone Tracy will battle second-year pro Eric Gray for No. 2 duties. A converted wideout, Tracy has the footwork and agility to dance around defenders but is more than big enough to shed arm tackles. He affirmed his athleticism at the Combine with a 4.48 40 and elite times in the agility drills. With Gray commanding just 23 rookie touches in the Giants’ putrid offense last season, Tracy is probably the upside bet to place at contingency back. Neither runner is a compelling late-round flier, as the No. 2 back will lack for value in this Jones-led system, and a committee would undoubtedly emerge were Singletary to go down injured.
Win Total
No one’s idea of a sleeper squad, the Giants are most people’s idea of one of the worst teams in the league. That’s why their over/under can usually be found at 6.5. It’s difficult to find the avenue to the over, as the G-Men have one of the league’s tougher schedules in the rugged NFC East. That does not include in Weeks 1 and 2, where they will take on the rookie-quarterback starting Vikings and Commanders. A 2-0 start would have the Giants well on their way to the over, but there are too many ways things that could go wrong with this horribly-undermanned offensive group to bet on the positive side of the coin.