2023 Stats (rank)
Points per game: 20.2 (22nd)
Total yards per game: 347.8 (10th)
Plays per game: 63 (17th)
Pass Attempts + Sacks per game: 39.9 (2nd)
Dropback EPA per play: 0.04 (17th)
Rush attempts per game: 23.1 (28th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.16 (25th)
Coaching Staff
The Vikings entered 2023 plussing Jordan Addison and minusing Dalvin Cook. The backfield was “led” by Alexander Mattison and Ty Chandler. Translation: Get ready to pass more than ever. They didn’t quite get there — their 631 attempts were 41 fewer than 2022 — but that number was still good for fourth in the league. On a spreadsheet it’s also stripped of the context that Kirk Cousins started just eight games before popping his Achilles. That means a team that gave nine combined starts to Josh Dobbs, Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall still finished top five in raw attempts. You could say head coach Kevin O’Connell likes to sling it. He has a new triggerman for 2024, NCAA game-manager extraordinaire J.J. McCarthy. He also has a new, more serious lead back in Aaron Jones, albeit one whose best late-career traits come in the passing game. All in all, fantasy managers shouldn’t expect much to change, though they might not quite know who will be under center for Week 1.
Passing Game
QB: Sam Darnold, J.J. McCarthy
WR: Justin Jefferson, Jalen Nailor
WR: Jordan Addison, Trishton Jackson
WR: Brandon Powell, Trent Sherfield
TE: T.J. Hockenson, Josh Oliver, Johnny Mundt
That’s because it’s not just McCarthy joining the quarterback room but also veteran Sam Darnold, who signed a one-year, $8.75 million contract in free agency. Although it’s typically hard to believe a team is seriously considering sitting its first-round quarterback – in this case one that required two trade-ups — Vikings media is insisting this time it counts. The coaching staff has preached patience with the rookie, while The Athletic has said Darnold will “definitely” be under center September 8 against the Giants.
If that’s the case, Darnold is an intriguing superflex freebie. Airing it out is in this offense’s lifeblood. If Darnold makes even 2-3 starts, he could end up the bench stash you never knew you needed. That being said, the Vikings’ early schedule — @NYG, vs. SF, vs. HOU, @GB, vs. NYJ — is brutal, while Minnesota’s Week 6 bye would make for a perfect transition point for the rookie signal caller. Ultimately, Darnold seems unlikely to cash fantasy checks as an early-year sleeper.
Which finally brings us to McCarthy. Unlike some first-round quarterbacks, McCarthy is already famous. Unlike most first-round quarterbacks, McCarthy is famous for what he didn’t do in college: Throw. The film watchers and Vikings brain trust believe it was more a matter of usage than ability. Whatever it was, it’s going to be quite the transition for a rookie who averaged 22 passes in the Big 10 last year while the Vikings managed 37 weekly attempts even with their starter missing half the season. When McCarthy actually got the opportunity to showcase his skills in Ann Arbor, he played efficient, mistake-free football. That includes under pressure, where McCarthy was both extremely accurate as well as aggressive, rocking Pro Football Focus’ “big time throw rate” metric.
Physically, McCarthy will never be accused of having elite arm strength, but the Vikes are hoping he is the ultimate “the whole is greater than the sum of its parts” quarterback prospect. That includes as an athlete, where McCarthy tested well but never operated as a true dual-threat at Michigan. That high floor combined with an aggressive offensive approach and elite supporting cast means McCarthy will merit immediate streamer consideration whenever he finally overtakes Darnold, even if it’s during training camp.
That elite supporting cast is led by the best skill player on the planet, Justin Jefferson. Like Cousins, Jefferson missed a big chunk of 2023 with injury. Of his 10 appearances, only five came with Captain Kirk. That didn’t stop him from reaching 1,000 yards for the fourth time in as many campaigns. Jefferson spent half the year playing with roster-fringe QBs and still finished third in yards per route run. Rookie McCarthy is a different kind of test, but Jefferson has never given any indication he should be anything other than one of the first 1-2 receivers off the board in fantasy. Newly paid as of June, Jefferson is healthy and focused with quarterback play that should be back on the upswing. I would select him over Tyreek Hill.
With T.J. Hockenson sidelined by a torn ACL to begin the season, Addison will become his sophomore season as the clear-cut No. 2 target. Despite his quarterback issues and stiff target competition, Addison still finished his rookie campaign on the doorstep of 1,000 yards (911). Addison’s heaviest usage and biggest game came with Jefferson on the shelf, but his 10 overall touchdowns propelled him to a top-30 finish by average PPR points. It’s difficult to read too deeply into the Vikings’ 2023 splits because of the overall injury chaos, but Addison still averaged a solid 4/47 with Jefferson in the lineup, compared to 5/62 without his All-Pro teammate. Even if you bake in fewer touchdowns and less overall yardage with Jefferson healthy and McCarthy learning, Addison is a summer WR4 who could return top 36 numbers. Fantasy managers are probably underrating the odds he has top-30 upside.
With K.J. Osborn on the Patriots, the only other Vikings pass catcher of note is Hockenson, who seems uncertain of when he might return from his busted knee. A stay on the reserve/PUP list seems likely, which would cost Hock at least four games. The towering tight end has commanded targets at a truly absurd rate since arriving in Minnesota and been surprisingly efficient in the process despite an unimpressive 9.5 yards per grab as a Viking. Only four seam stretchers averaged more yards per route run last season. Cool stuff, but with Hockenson’s health shaky as he prepares to catch passes from a rookie quarterback, he doesn’t feel like much of a stash in 12-team re-draft leagues. Just have the FAAB ready for when he is poised to return.
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Running Game
RB: Aaron Jones, Ty Chandler, Cam Akers, Kene Nwangwu
OL (L-R): Christian Darrisaw, Dalton Risner, Garrett Bradbury, Ed Ingram, Brian O’Neill
One year after punting on the running game — a decision that came back to haunt them following Cousins’ injury — the Vikings have reinvested in the backfield by signing longtime division rival Aaron Jones. The seven-year veteran, of course, is far from a panacea. Battling hamstring and knee woes nearly all season, Jones looked every bit his 28 years for the Packers, clearing 10 carries just one time in his first seven appearances. Once he finally returned to something resembling full health in Week 15, he was closer to the back fantasy managers expected, turning 87 touches over his final four games into 475 yards from scrimmage. Although the Packers never targeted Jones quite as much as they should have, he has long been one of the league’s most efficient receiving backs. That, coupled with his goal-line experience/success safely park him inside the top 24 at running back despite his age/injury concerns.
Backing Jones up is Ty Chandler, who was by far the best of the Vikings’ top-two backs last season even if it took them nearly all year to figure it out. Limited to 62 total touches before Week 15, Chandler took the rock 61 times for 327 yards and two touchdowns over his final four appearances as the Vikes flirted with an all-time hilarious playoff qualification. The second-year pro showed enough to offer the promise of contingency value behind Jones, who looks increasingly creaky heading into his age-29 season. Chandler is worth an end-of-bench spot, though you might need to cut him loose at the first sign of bye/injury trouble.
Win Total
Generally installed around a miserable 6.5 as they enter a transition season, the Vikings find themselves ahead of only the Panthers, Broncos and Patriots. A schedule Warren Sharp ranks as the league’s fifth toughest certainly doesn’t help. The NFC North is a rugged division. There’s a lot not to like here, but Kevin O’Connell has generally overachieved through two years in Minnesota while Brian Flores has quietly built a beast on defense. That coaching acumen alone is probably enough to hit the over. It’s not a number this rookie-lead squad will soar past, but I am more confident in 7-8 wins than 5-6.