2023 Stats (Rank)
Points per game: 29.2 (2nd)
Total yards per game: 401.3 (1st)
Plays per game: 61.9 (21st)
Pass Attempts + Sacks per game: 35.1 (23rd)
Dropback EPA per play: 0.17 (3rd)
Rush attempts per game: 26.8 (15th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.01 (5th)
Coaching Staff
Mike McDaniel enters year three as head coach of the speedy Dolphins offense. The years he has been play caller for the offensive unit have led to some of the most explosive offensive performances in the league. The Dolphins ranked No. 1 in yards per game and No. 2 in points per game last season after ranking top-six in both categories in 2022. The team put up 0.1 (No. 4) EPA per play and went 11-6, placing second in the AFC East before losing an ice-cold Wild Card game to the Chiefs.
The offensive play-calling will stay with McDaniel for 2024, though he has considered giving up play-calling duties after how last season ended. The Dolphins had some fruitful offensive performances throughout the season, punctuated by a 70-point game against the Broncos in Week 3. However, the team faltered down the stretch, failing to hit 20 points in the last two regular season games and Wild Card round. There are no concerns for McDaniel’s job safety, but the Miami staff will be considering some adjustments to take the next step and win in the playoffs.
Passing Game
QB: Tua Tagovailoa, Mike White, Skylar Thompson
WR: Tyreek Hill, Malik Washington, Tahj Washington
WR: Jaylen Waddle, Braxton Berrios, Erik Ezukanma
WR: Odell Beckham Jr., River Cracraft
TE: Jonnu Smith, Durham Smythe, Julian Hill
The Dolphins have a shot in the dreaded AFC playoff field because of McDaniel’s play calling with speedy running backs and wide receivers. The team ranked third in dropback EPA per play and first in passing yards per game in 2023. At the heart of it is Tua Tagovailoa. Last season, he threw for a career-high 69.3-percent completion percentage and led the league in passing yards. A big part of his fantasy success came from deep shots and yards after catch pick-ups from Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. As long as Tagovailoa has those two with McDaniel’s offense, he will be a productive fantasy quarterback. The major detractor from his fantasy production is his lack of rushing ability, which pushes Tagovailoa down into the high-end QB2 range.
The aforementioned Hill and Waddle make up a large focus of the Dolphins offense. Hill has tallied at least 170 targets, 119 receptions and 1,700 receiving yards each of his two seasons as a Dolphin. Consistently one of the top receivers in the league in target share and targets per route run (top-five last season in both), Hill is undoubtedly in line for another WR1 fantasy season. As Hill’s counterpart, Waddle is the second fiddle, but still sees quality volume. Last season, Waddle had his worst fantasy season with the least receiving touchdowns of his career in 14 games played. He was still a fantasy WR2 and hit the 1,000-yard mark for the third time in his three-year career. Waddle is in the high-end WR2 fantasy mix after his “worst” season has led to a slight discount on his value.
Odell Beckham Jr. joins the Dolphins on a one-year contract as their prospective No. 3 wideout. Historically considered one of the great wide receivers of the 2010s, Beckham is not the same player as he once was. Injuries and age have hampered him, but he was still productive as a Raven last season, catching 35 passes for 565 yards and three touchdowns on about 50% of snaps. Behind Beckham is a mix of depth. Braxton Berrios is the team’s return man while also contributing as a slot receiver on occasion. River Cracraft has also been a depth contributor while sixth-rounder Malik Washington is versatile rookie add. Though it’s an intriguing depth chart, Hill and Waddle have been the only two wideouts with over 30 receptions each of the last two seasons. The offense runs through them. Beckham is an interesting WR5 value while the rest will need multiple players ahead of them to miss time to offer any fantasy relevance.
The Dolphins offense has not been one to utilize tight ends as top pass-catching options. Despite Durham Smythe being the third-leading receiver on the team last season, his 366 yards were nearly 700 yards behind Jaylen Waddle. Smythe and Julian Hill combined for zero touchdown receptions last season. The addition of Jonnu Smith may give Mike McDaniel the Mike Gesicki pass-catching replacement that was missing last season. Smith averaged 8.4 yards per target and 11.6 yards per reception last season, both top-eight amongst tight ends. He makes for a potential red zone target and a fantasy TE2 upside play.
Running Game
RB: De’Von Achane, Raheem Mostert, Jaylen Wright, Jeff Wilson Jr.
OL (L-R): Terron Armstead, Isaiah Wynn, Aaron Brewer, Robert Jones, Austin Jackson
Just like with the receiving group, the Dolphins’ running back group simply possesses speed. De’Von Achane and rookie Jaylen Wright are both under 23-years-old and ran sub-4.4 forty-yard dashes. The 32-year-old Raheem Mostert also flashed his speed last season en route to 1,187 total yards and 21 total touchdowns. Achane is currently the favorite to lead the backfield after he averaged 7.8 yards per carry on low volume last season. There are durability concerns after he missed six games last season, but Achane is the ultimate boom play. He has an RB1 ceiling, though he may not consistently be there.
Mostert had a career-best season in 2023. He was a special-teamer earlier in his career but has thrived since getting backfield touches, especially as a Dolphin. Other than the veteran Mostert, the next biggest backfield option is Wright. A fourth-round pick, Wright has a similar build to Mostert and has the track-star speed to be next man up. Mostert agreed to an adjusted deal that has him under contract through 2025, but age is always a concern for backs and is safer valued as a fringe RB2. Wright is likely more of a long-term backfield solution and will be in the fantasy RB4 mix this year, but will have a fringe RB1 ceiling, like Mostert, if given the start with other back(s) hurt. The Dolphins will be playing running back roulette more often than not, but the hierarchy looks to be Achane, Mostert, and Wright in order of who is most likely to get the chance to boom in a given week.
The Dolphins’ rush EPA per play improved from -0.05 (13th) to -0.01 (5th) last season with the scheme and explosive rushing a big part of that. The offensive line, meanwhile, was strong but hampered by injury questions. Robert Hunt and Connor Williams are now gone from the unit, leaving Terron Armstead the long-standing vet. Despite rumors of an Armstead retirement, he agreed to an adjusted contract to return to the left-handed Tua’s front side. The Dolphins also selected Patrick Paul in the second round of this year’s draft. He is a potential successor if Armstead does indeed move on soon. Ultimately, the line has some question marks surrounding durability, but may turn a strength this season blocking for a fast offense.
Win Total
After an 11-win 2023, DraftKings sportsbook has the Dolphins projected at a 10.5-win total. There weren’t many additions to the front end of the offense, but it was reinforced by the additions of Beckham, Smith, and Wright. This will help some of Miami’s struggles with durability, but Tua’s ability to stick with good defenses will be tested again. Expect a run back to the explosiveness of Mike McDaniel’s offense. After finishing No. 1 in total points per game and No. 4 in EPA per play, betting the over is an optimistic vote of confidence in the team’s further growth. However, those with doubts on the team’s ability to hang with the AFC heavyweights are more confident in the under.
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