2023 Stats (Rank)
Points per game: 22.5 (12th)
Total yards per game: 345.5 (11th)
Plays per game: 61.8 (23rd)
Pass Attempts + Sacks per game: 35.3 (15th)
Dropback EPA per play: 0.155 (4th)
Rush attempts per game: 25.8 (22nd)
Rush EPA per play: -0.054 (10th)
Coaching
Green Bay offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich enters his third season as the team’s OC. After finishing 17th in offensive yardage in 2022 — Aaron Rodgers’ final season with the Packers — the team gained the 11th most yards in Jordan Love’s first year as starter in 2023. They were 12th in points per game thanks to Love’s highly efficient play in November and December, and only five NFL teams had a better giveaway differential than Green Bay.
The Packers ranked tenth in pass rate over expected in 2023, proving to be one of the league’s most balanced teams in neutral game script (when the game was within seven points either way). Stenavich used three-wideout sets on 49 percent of the team’s drop backs — the 16th highest rate. He deployed two tight end sets at the league’s third highest rate.
The Packers under Stenavich have done what good teams do: Use motion at the snap at a high rate. Last year, only the 49ers, Rams, and Dolphins used at-the-snap motion more often than the Packers.
Passing Offense
QB: Jordan Love, Sean Clifford
WR: Romeo Doubs, Bo Melton
WR: Jayden Reed, Malik Heath
WR: Christian Watson, Dontayvian Wicks
TE: Luke Musgrave, Tucker Kraft
Jordan Love’s season long numbers were good enough in 2023, but there were two versions of Love in his first year as Green Bay’s starter: Before his breakout 322-yard, two-touchdown Week 11 performance against the Chargers, and after.
For the season’s first ten weeks, Love’s stats — both traditional and peripheral — were underwhelming at best. He was 20th in drop back success rate — trailing quarterback luminaries such as Desmond Ridder and Mac Jones — and 14th in adjusted EPA per attempt, a tick below Russell Wilson. Love’s adjusted net yards per attempt was abysmal, ranking 26th in the season’s first couple months. Only Zach Wilson and Matthew Stafford had a lower completion rate over expected than the struggling Love.
Love’s Week 11-18 flurry came with some gobsmacking analytics. He led all passers in competition rate over expected; only Dak Prescott had a higher drop back success rate; he was third in adjusted net yards per attempt; and, importantly for fantasy purposes, only four QBs averaged more fantasy points per drop back. With multi-touchdown games in ten of his final 11 outings — including two postseason tilts — Love was second in a composite statistic that accounts for a QB’s completion rate over expected and EPA. A shorter way to put it: Love was unquestionably elite over the season’s final two months.
Green Bay coaches, including quarterbacks coach Tom Clements, credited Love’s improved decision making as the driver of his excellent November and December (and January). Comfort and familiarity with the offense and his pass catchers appeared to play an outsized factor in Love’s progress in diagnosing defenses and making pre-snap adjustments. That’s the kind of thing that often sticks for young quarterbacks.
My one hesitation with Love is that he was reliant on big plays. His breakout second half of the season was fueled by long gains on (usually) long passes that might not prove sustainable in 2024 and beyond, as Arif Hasan pointed out in the Wide Left newsletter.
It largely goes unsaid that Love is working with one of the deepest wide receiver rooms in the NFL. Watson, Reed, and Doubs are arguably a top six or seven wideout trio, and behind them are Wicks — a highly productive college receiver who just so happened to be hyper efficient as a rookie — and Melton, who only saw 26 targets in 2023 and led the Packers in yards per route run and receiving success rate.
In case you’re a well-adjusted human who does not track the hamstring health of NFL wideouts 365 days a year, I have some news for you: The perpetually injured Watson has reportedly found the root of his never-ending hamstring woes (asymmetrical strides) and has worked diligently with doctors at a special lab in Wisconsin to address the issue. This might sound funny to you, like it did to me at first, but it’s potentially a (very) significant for Watson, Love, and the rest of the team’s wideouts. A full season for Watson probably means a season of big, downfield splash plays and spike weeks for the speedy deep ball specialist. It would also mean fewer looks for Jayden Reed, whose target profile was downright elite with Watson on the sideline in 2023.
Reed in 2023 occupied what you might call the Deebo lite role in the Packers offense. He had 64 catches on 94 targets for 793 yards and eight scores while missing one game with injury. That Reed’s splits were so much better with Watson sidelined is, like I mentioned, something of a concern for fantasy managers targeting Reed (unless the Packers are a much pass heavier team in 2024).
Doubs got by on unsustainable touchdowns production in 2023. All six of Doubs’ inside-the-ten receptions last season went for touchdowns, and seven of his eight red zone catches were scores. Reed was Love’s main red zone target in 2023, but just barely. He had 18 red zone looks to Reed’s 14. Watson had 13. Doubs will be something of a touchdown-reliant fantasy option this season.
Dontayvion Wicks, every football hipster’s favorite receiver, was impressive in limited usage as a rookie in 2023, but will likely start the season behind Reed, Watson, and Doubs. Wicks would instantly become an interesting fantasy play if any of the team’s starting wideouts miss time in 2024. For as much time and effort as fantasy managers will use to dissect the Green Bay receiver room this summer, none of these guys will dominate targets. It’ll be a headache trying to figure out which Green Bay receiver is going to function as the team’s WR1 in a given week.
Luke Musgrave, who missed six games with an abdomen strain in 2023, is back atop the Green Bay tight end depth chart. That doesn’t mean Tucker Kraft will occupy a pure reserve role, however. Kraft was solid in eight 2023 starts: He led all tight ends in yards after the catch per reception and had at least four receptions in five of his final six regular season games. It’s not out of the question that Kraft takes over as the team’s primary pass-catching tight end, though he didn’t exactly display a knack for commanding targets last year, seeing a target on 17.4 percent of his pass routes (Kraft was at 14.2 percent). The Packers’ tight end situation should be monitored closely this summer.
Rushing Offense
RB: Josh Jacobs, MarShawn Lloyd, AJ Dillon
OL (L-R): Rasheed Walker, Elgton Jenkins, Josh Myers, San Rhyan, Zach Tom
Let’s start with a difficult truth: Josh Jacobs might be cooked. Like, well done, charred. You forgot the burgers were on the grill. That kind of cooked.
Last year, trapped in a wretched Vegas offense, Jacobs was as bad or worse than Packers backfield mate AJ Dillon (by many measures the worst running back in the league). In rush yards over expected and rush yards after contact and fantasy points over expected and other nerdy metrics, Jacobs was bottom-of-the-barrel bad in 2023. There are zero positive takeaways from his final season with the Raiders.
It’s not that the Raiders were a particularly bad run blocking team in 2023. They ranked 13th in PFF’s team run blocking grade and were 12th in yards before contact per rush, in line with the Packers and Colts. Perhaps Jacobs’ 2023 struggles were vibes based. Former Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels — fired last season — comes with exceptionally bad vibes, after all.
Thankfully for those intent on targeting Jacobs in fantasy drafts this summer, NFL coaches don’t care about metrics. Packers coaches seem smitten with Jacobs’ toughness and veteran leadership. These things matter to coaches much more than any nerdy statistic. Jacobs could inherit a hefty workload, including critical goal line opportunities, based on the team’s comfort with him as an unquestioned lead back. It won’t matter if he’s inefficient. It never does with running backs.
The Packers offensive line was graded by PFF in 2023 as the league’s tenth worst run blocking unit, though they had the fourth lowest stuff rate and the tenth best yards before contact per rush. During Love’s torrid second half run, Green Bay’s offense was third in rush EPA and fourth in rushing success rate. Top-end quarterback play helped open up the run game, as it so often does.
Rookie RB MarShawn Lloyd would be in line for lead back duties if Jacobs misses time in 2024. It won’t take a Jacobs injury for Lloyd to get playing time though. Packers coaches have been clear that the rookie, taken with the 88th pick in the draft, will be utilized in the backfield alongside Jacobs to some extent. Packers offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said this spring that he wants Lloyd to be on the field “as much as possible.” What that means is anyone’s guess, but it’s not impossible Lloyd strips Jacobs of some of his pass-catching duties this season. Lloyd is a must-have for drafters who fade elite running backs in the early rounds.
AJ Dillon is also on Green Bay’s roster, somehow.
Win Total
The Packers enter 2024 with a win total of 10.5, per DraftKings sportsbook. Only the Ravens, Chiefs, and Niners have a higher win over-under. That might seem optimistic, but if Love can continue shredding defenses with pinpoint throws and pre-snap adjustments, I think Green Bay can go well over 10.5 wins. I love the Pack’s chances to challenge Dan Campbell’s Lions for NFC North supremacy this season.
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