2023 Stats (Rank)
Points per game: 21 (19th)
Total yards per game: 298.4 (26th)
Plays per game: 59.8 (29th)
Pass Attempts + Sacks per game: 33.2 (27th)
Dropback EPA per play: -0.01 (21st)
Rush attempts per game: 26.5 (18th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.11 (17th)
Coaching Staff
Sean Payton enters his second season as head coach of a Broncos team that struggled through the AFC West last season. His adjustments did improve the team from five to eight wins, but the offense ranked in the bottom half of the league in both total yards and points per game under Payton and OC Joe Lombardi. Some of that could be attributed to the ghost of Russell Wilson, who is now swapped out for a fresh Bo Nix for Payton to mold.
Under Payton, the team’s dropback and rush EPA per play metrics improved slightly from 2022, but they averaged less yards per game and plays per game. The main metric of improvement (at least the one that matters the most) was that the Broncos went from averaging 16.9 points per game to 21 last season. Payton has a storied coaching career and undoubtedly made the Broncos offense less queasy to watch. While the team still has a way to go to being competitive, Payton is signed for four more years. More points under a good head coach means more fantasy opportunity, and Payton at the helm makes the Broncos offense more digestible on the fantasy front.
Passing Game
QB: Bo Nix, Jarrett Stidham, Zach Wilson
WR: Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin
WR: Marvin Mims, Devaughn Vele
WR: Josh Reynolds, Tim Patrick
TE: Adam Trautman, Greg Dulcich
The Broncos managed 191.9 passing yards per game last season, 24th in the NFL with Russell Wilson and Jarrett Stidham taking snaps. While still paying Wilson’s albatross contract, the Broncos now swap him out for pick No. 12, Bo Nix. An older prospect at 24 years old, he spent his last two college seasons at Oregon. In both seasons as a Duck, Nix had at least a 72% completion percentage and at least 8.8 Yards per Attempt. He split first-team reps with Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson in OTA’s, receiving praise from Sean Payton for being a good decision-maker. Neither Stidham or Wilson are significant challengers to a guy with first-round draft capital, so expect Nix to start at some point in 2024 if not immediately. Displaying some rushing ability in college, Nix will be QB3 flier this season.
Nix will be throwing to a receiving corps led by Courtland Sutton. Last season, Sutton was a touchdown machine, tallying ten scores on 59 receptions for 772 yards. Jerry Jeudy was dealt to the Browns, leaving Sutton as the best returning receiver. His size makes him a big red zone target, useful for a rookie quarterback like Nix. Expect some touchdown regression but more opportunities than last season, putting Sutton in the WR4 fantasy range.
Nix’s college receiver, Troy Franklin, has the upside to be the No. 2 receiver. He fell to the fourth round in the NFL Draft, but had a strong connection with Nix at Oregon. Totaling 1,383 receiving yards on 81 receptions with 14 touchdowns, Franklin was Oregon’s top wideout. While his draft capital ended up lower than expected, there is something to be said about the college quarterback-receiver connection. The Broncos have given Nix a comfortable option in the passing game and that alone puts Franklin in the WR5 fantasy mix for 2024.
The rest of the receivers have a variety of experience. Marvin Mims will enter his second season after catching just 22 passes for 377 yards last year. Sean Payton did not utilize Mims much in the offense, seeing 38% of offensive snaps. With the new kickoff rules, we can expect Mims to continue to return kicks, the role he was named Second-Team All-Pro and Pro-Bowler for. He could split snaps in the slot with the newly signed Josh Reynolds, who is coming off a 604-yard season with the Lions. Reynolds is a reliable target for intermediate throws, but he has yet to be a top-60 fantasy wideout.
Tim Patrick returns after back-to-back seasons suffering a torn ACL and torn Achilles. The Broncos will try and work him into the offense but those are two brutal knee injuries to recover from. Devaughn Vele is a 26-year-old seventh round rookie who may see some special teams run. Mims and Reynolds are late-round dart throws in the Broncos offense, while Patrick and Vele are unlikely to have fantasy relevance.
At tight end, Adam Trautman and Greg Dulcich are the Broncos’ top options. Trautman has been one of Sean Payton’s favorites since his Saints days, primarily flexing his chops as a blocker. With just 35 Targets last season, Trautman is unlikely to be the team’s receiving tight end. That role is supposed to belong to Dulcich, who dealt with hamstring issues to play in just two games last season. As a rookie in 2022, he had an ADOT over 10 yards and earned 55 targets in 10 games. Dulcich is a TE2 upside play if he can stay healthy for 2024.
Running Game
RB: Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine, Jaleel McLaughlin, Audric Estime, Blake Watson
OL (L-R): Garett Bolles, Ben Powers, Luke Wattenberg, Quinn Meinerz, Mike McGlinchey
The running game was middle-of-the pack last season, averaging 106.5 rush yards per game, 18th in the NFL. The team’s presumed starter, Javonte Williams, was recovering from ACL and LCL tears and did not see a workhorse share. He played in 16 games, averaging 3.6 yards per carry. Williams’ receiving upside salvaged his fantasy value. With 47 receptions for 228 yards, he was an RB3 on the season. Behind Williams, Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin split opportunities. McLaughlin took over as the primary No. 2, rushing 76 times for 410 yards. Perine was the primary pass-catcher, finishing with 50 receptions for 455 yards.
Offseason rumors have the Broncos backfield primed to compete for committee roles. However, Williams should be more impactful an additional season removed from his ACL tear. Expect him to be the primary rusher and in the RB2 mix. McLaughlin is the next back to look at from this roster. This is an offense that will generate many backfield receptions again, and with pass-catching upside, McLaughlin is a solid FLEX option in the RB4 range.
The Broncos also drafted Audric Estime in the fifth round of this year’s draft. He did not test well at the combine, with a 4.71-second 40-yard dash and OK numbers across the board, but Estime is a productive young back. In his last season at Notre Dame, Estime rushed 210 times for 1,341 yards and 18 touchdowns. He was never a big receiver, tallying 17 receptions for 142 yards last season. Estime won’t crack a starting role yet, but could see some sizeable carries, especially if Williams were to miss any time. At quarterback, Bo Nix could see some rushing opportunities as well. Last season, Russell Wilson saw a mix of scrambles and designed runs. While it will take Nix time to adjust to the NFL, he has the mobility to scramble and could see some designed runs too, adding to his fantasy value.
The offensive line primarily looks the same as last season, but with Lloyd Cushenberry out at center. Luke Wattenberg, a 2022 fifth-rounder, may be in line to start, with free agent signing Sam Mustipher also having a shot. The line was ranked No. 7 in the league by PFF by the end of the season and should continue to provide rushing lanes for the committee of backs that will run through. A healthier Williams will upgrade the rushing game’s -0.11 EPA per play from last season to supplement an unproven passer at quarterback.
Win Total
The Broncos’ DraftKings win total is set at 5.5 for this season. After going 8-9 last season, the sportsbook seems to be in on the team regressing. With a new rookie quarterback and not many offensive additions, expecting a low-win season is warranted. The rebuild is going to take some time and with such a low win total, they are a team in the “surprising ahead-of-schedule exceeding of expectations” range. For believers in Sean Payton developing Bo Nix quickly with a good defense and run game, the over looks good. However, those that don’t think the rookie class’s QB6 will lead the team to six or more wins (or even think Stidham or Wilson will start at some point) would take the under.
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