2023 Stats (Rank)
Points per game: 21.5 (16th)
Total yards per game: 318.9 (22nd)
Plays per game: 61.6 (24th)
Pass Attempts + Sacks per game: 39.1 (5th)
Dropback EPA per play: 0.05 (16th)
Rush attempts per game: 22.5 (30th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.1 (15th)
Coaching Staff
Zac Taylor remains in place as the Bengals’ head coach for a fifth season. After two rebuilding campaigns, Taylor has gone 31-19 with a 5-2 record in the postseason over the past three years. Cincinnati missed the playoffs in 2023 but did so after losing Joe Burrow to a hand injury in Week 11. Taylor could find himself on the hot seat with a slow start, but his standing in Cincinnati ultimately revolves around postseason success. As long as the Bengals make some noise in the playoffs, there should be no questions about his job security.
The biggest change for the Bengals will be the loss of offensive coordinator Brian Callahan. Taylor tabbed him as Cincy’s OC when he took the head coaching job in 2019 and the two have stayed in their respective roles ever since. Callahan was poached as the next head coach of the Titans this offseason. Though Callahan added plenty of value through his design of the offense and his preparation leading into games, Taylor has always been on the headset, calling the plays on gamedays. That will make the transition to Dan Pritcher—the former quarterbacks coach and current offensive coordinator—much easier.
Passing Game
QB: Joe Burrow, Jake Browning
WR: Ja’Marr Chase, Jermaine Burton
WR: Tree Higgins, Andrei Iosivas
WR: Trenton Irwin, Charlie Jones
TE: Mike Gesicki, Tanner Hudson
The Bengals’ passing attack was fractured into stretches of bad play from Joe Burrow, elite play from the superstar passer, and surprisingly competent play from his backup Jake Browning. Burrow suffered a calf injury late in the offseason and didn’t look right early in the year. He ranked 27th in EPA per play and 31st in completion percent over expected while averaging a comically low 8.4 fantasy points per game through four weeks. Burrow turned things around in Week 5 with 317 yards and three scores against the Cardinals. Ja’Marr Chase also caught his first, second, and third touchdowns of the season in the game.
From Week 5 to Week 10, Burrow averaged 296 passing yards and 2.4 touchdowns per game. Chase’s numbers skyrocketed to eight receptions for 107 yards and one touchdown per game. Burrow was the QB7 in EPA per play during this stretch and led the NFL in CPOE. A wrist injury in Week 11 ended Burrows’ season prematurely. Chase’s numbers understandably fell off in Jake Browning’s seven starts. Chase was a superstar when Burrow was at full strength and betting against “injury-prone” players with elite upside has been a terrible position to take over the years. Burrow is going off best ball boards as the QB9 at the top of the eighth round. Chase remains pricey, but the discount on Burrow makes a Bengals stack even more enticing.
Tee Higgins’ outlook is a little less exciting. The fifth-year receiver has been pushing for a new contract for over a year but will be forced to play on the franchise tag in 2023. The Bengals are playing hardball with Higgins and they may have good reasons to do so. Joe Burrow’s aDOT has fallen in every year of his career and reached a staggeringly low mark of 6.9 yards in 2023. From Denny Carter’s The Rise of the Checkdown, Burrow was among the most conservative quarterbacks in the league against two-high coverages.
Higgins, primarily a deep boundary receiver, has seen his target share fall in back-to-back years, reaching a career low of 18 percent last season. His YPRR (1.66) and PFF receiving grade (70.9) also hit low-water marks in 2023. Burrow’s dwindling target depth was far from the only reason for Higgins’ decline. He dealt with hamstring and rib injuries throughout the year. The quarterback change also impacted him. Still, it’s fair to say the “He would be a WR1 on most other teams” hype has faded.
The remaining targets in the passing game are nothing more than best ball fliers. Mike Gesicki is projected to start at tight end. He fell out of favor in Miami in 2022 and couldn’t find a role while on a one-year deal in New England last year. Gesicki’s YPRR has fallen in three consecutive seasons and he is coming off a career low in Open Score per ESPN’s player tracking data.
The WR3 role is up for grabs with Tyler Boyd out of the picture. Jermaine Burton is the most intriguing player in the mix. The third-round wideout was a big-play specialist at Georgia and Alabama. However, Burton ran 73 percent of his routes from an outside alignment in college and the Bengals already deploy Chase and Higgins primarily on the outside. Burton’s role will need to change in the NFL or the Bengals may look to Charlie Jones or Trenton Irwin as Boyd’s replacement.
Jones was a fourth-round pick last year and 70 percent of his 30 routes as a rookie were from the slot. Irwin is a versatile veteran who will be active for special teams duties. If his younger contemporaries aren’t up to the WR3 task, he would take over the job, though it’s hard to see him holding much fantasy value given his lack of production through five NFL seasons.
Running Game
RB: Zack Moss, Chase Brown, Chris Evans, Trayveon Williams
OL (L-R): Orlando Brown Jr., Cordell Volson, Ted Karras, Alex Cappa, Amarius Mims
Joe Mixon was a mainstay of the Bengals’ ground game for years, but his pricey contract became untenable for the team after the 2023 season. He was set to be cut before the Texans sent Cincy a late-round pick for him. The Bengals then signed Zack Moss to a two-year, $8 million contract in free agency. Moss is coming off a strong season as the Colts’ occasional replacement for Jonathan Taylor. Moss was active for six of Taylor’s seven absences. He also saw work while the Colts eased Taylor back into the lineup. In six games with a snap share over 75 percent, Moss averaged 20 carries for 87 yards and .5 touchdowns. He added over two receptions for 18 yards in these contests as well. Moss posted 17 PPR points per game in this bell cow role. He turned in a great season in the advanced metrics, ranking seventh in rush yards over expected per carry and 13th in success rate. Moss will get the first crack at the starting role on a Bengals offense that should be among the league’s best at scoring points. The Bengals were without Joe Burrow for seven games and still managed the 10th-most running back carries inside the five.
Moss is joining Chase Brown in the Cincinnati backfield. The Bengals nabbed Brown with the No. 163 overall pick last year. He worked his way into a part-time role down the stretch and did not disappoint when called upon. Among players with at least 40 carries, Brown ranked 11th in PFF’s Elusiveness Rating and 16th in yards after contact per carry. He also flashed big-play potential as a pass-catcher out of the backfield.
Chase Brown doing Chase Brown things.
— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) December 10, 2023
📺: #INDvsCIN on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus#Illini // #HTTO // #famILLy pic.twitter.com/xVx1HjAaWy
That was the second-fastest play of the season according to Next Gen Stats. Brown should at least hold a change-of-pace role early in the season and will be a viable FLEX option. If he pushes Moss for more work, Brown has the potential to be a breakout RB2.
Win Total
DraftKings Over/Under: 10.5
Pick: Over
The juice is appropriately tilted toward the over, with bettors laying -140 to back the Bengals for 11 or more wins. That alone would have me leaning toward the under at +120 odds, though this is ultimately a fair line. There are a few other lines with some value on DK. Burrow’s passing yardage total is set at 4,000.5 with -115 odds for the over. Ignoring Burrow’s incomplete final game, he was on pace for 4,171 yards. His pace after the slow start would have him cruising by the 4,000 mark with weeks to spare.