2023 Stats (Rank)
Points per game: 28.4 (4th)
Total yards per game: 370.4 (4th)
Plays per game: 62.8 (18th)
Pass Attempts + Sacks per game: 29.9 (30th)
Dropback EPA per play: 0.112 (6th)
Rush attempts per game: 31.8 (1st)
Rush EPA per play: 0.009 (3rd)
Coaching Staff
The Ravens in 2023 finally exited the Greg Roman era — as good as it was for a couple seasons — and hired Todd Monken as offensive coordinator after his Georgia Bulldogs proved an unstoppable offense in 2022.
Monken’s talk of a more balanced offensive approach came to fruition: The Ravens, always in the bottom two or three teams in pass rate over expected, were just -0.5 percent below their expected pass rate, the league’s 11th highest rate. Baltimore passed the ball at a 56 percent clip in neutral situations (when the game was within seven points) compared to a meager 50 percent in 2022 and 52 percent in 2021. Importantly for fantasy purposes, the Ravens under Monken had a 65 percent pass rate while trailing last season -- well ahead of their average Lamar-era pass rate while chasing points.
The Ravens, under Monken, didn’t change their three-receiver set usage all that much. They had three wideouts on the field on 29 percent of their 2023 offensive snaps, the fourth lowest rate in the NFL. Their 21 personnel usage (two running backs, one tight end, two wideouts) remained among the highest in the league.
Monken forcing the Ravens into the 21st century resulted in a dramatic shift in first down play calling. Baltimore was 4 percent over its expected pass rate on first downs in 2023 after being -5 percent PROE on first downs from 2019 to 2022. Monken forsook the team’s traditional run-run-pass offensive approach and it paid off with the fourth most points in the NFL. It was a welcomed development for both Lamar Jackson and fantasy drafters.
Passing Game
QB: Lamar Jackson, Josh Johnson
WR: Zay Flowers, Tylan Wallace
WR: Rashod Bateman, Devontez Walker
WR: Nelson Agholor, Deonte Harty
TE: Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely
The Ravens, as mentioned above, became far less run heavy in 2023 under Monken, but still had the third fewest pass attempts in the NFL. Raw targets are always going to be hard to come by when the offense is quarterbacked by an otherworldly dual threat who averaged nearly 10 rushing attempts per game in 2023. Jackson ran at least six times in 15 of 16 games last season. That’s a lot of drop backs not resulting in a target. It matters (a lot) for fantasy.
Monken’s emphasis on a more balanced approach was reflected in myriad numbers: Jackson in 2023 set career marks in pass attempts, completions, passing yards, intended air yards, and completed air yards. Jackson was efficient too, notching the lowest bad throw rate and the highest completion rate of his NFL career. The team’s pass catchers benefited from a more accurate intermediate-throwing Jackson in 2023, as he led all QBs in adjusted net yards per attempt and completion rate over expected on throws between 10-19 yards.
Skeptics of the two-time NFL MVP got eerily quiet during the 2023 season.
Expect the Ravens to continue with a fairly condensed target distribution, with Mark Andrews functioning as the team’s de facto WR1 and Zay Flowers as the second option. Before he sustained a season-ending ankle injury on a vicious hip drop tackle in Week 11, Andrews was as good as he’s ever been. He was third in expected fantasy points among tight ends, with a 23 percent target share and a 20 percent air yards share — strong rates for a tight end. Andrews continued his target commanding ways, leading all tight ends in ESPN’s open score.
In Monken’s offense, Andrews had a career low 8.1 average depth of target, well short of his career 10.4 aDOT. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. It means Andrews was more involved in the short area passing attack, a veritable well of PPR points for athletic, YAC-crazy tight ends like Andrews. His slow start to 2023 and his mid-season injury should keep Andrews’ ADP very much in check this summer even though he has every chance to finish the season as the overall TE1.
Zay Flowers in his rookie season earned a 24 percent share of the team’s targets and air yards. He also happened to be well above his expected fantasy output. If Monken’s Ravens offense maintains last year’s positive environment, Flowers — who was top-12 in last year’s ESPN open score — should have every chance to break into top-20 wideout territory. Some touchdown luck would catapult Flowers somewhere near the top-12. It wasn’t as if Flowers needed Andrews to exit the Baltimore lineup before he emerged. With Andrews healthy from Week 2-10, Flowers led the Ravens with a 26 percent air yards share and drew just two fewer targets than Andrews (43 to 41).
Isaiah Likely remains something of an Andrews insurance policy. He was not in any way part of Baltimore’s offense during Andrews’ healthy stretch in 2023. Likely averaged a meager six pass routes and one target per game before Andrews went down in Week 11. From there, Likely was top ten in tight end receiving yards while averaging 29.6 routes per game. He’s not a bad bench stash for those in deeper leagues.
The rest of the Baltimore receivers are purely contingency options for if or when Flowers misses time. Ravens coaches have spent all offseason talking up Rashod Bateman, though his consistent struggles in the pros should leave fantasy gamers skeptical of a sudden emergence. Agholor will likely start the season as the team’s WR2, though Devontez Walker — the 113th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft out of North Carolina — could eventually emerge as a starter alongside Flowers. Walker profiles as little more than a splash play merchant.
Running Game
RB: Derrick Henry, Justice Hill, Keaton Mitchell
OL (L-R): Ronnie Stanley, Andrew Vorhees, Tyler Linderbaum, Ben Cleveland, Roger Rosengarten
I don’t usually get excited for a 30-year-old running back who has been used as a battering ram for the better part of five NFL seasons, but when I do, it’s for Derrick Henry.
Gus Edwards and Justice Hill last season combined for 41 inside-the-10 carries for the Ravens (which led to a total of 15 touchdowns). Hill and Gus Bus — now with the Chargers — combined for 271 expected fantasy points, which would have been second behind only CMC last season. The Ravens were six percent below their expected red zone pass rate under Monken last year. Put it all together and you could get a vintage season from Henry — one that puts him among the most important players in fantasy football.
His change in offensive environment can’t be overstated. Henry just last year was second in rush yards — trailing only Christian McCaffrey — while trapped in a Tennessee offense that ranked 30th in positive play rate and 27th in points above average per play. Monken’s Ravens in 2023 ranked sixth in positive play rate and seventh in points above average per play. The Biggest Dog faced eight defenders in the box at the second highest rate in the NFL in his final season with the Titans. That won’t be the case in Baltimore; the looming threat of the speedy Lamar — especially in the green zone — will put Henry in wildly positive situations. A little pass game action and those who fade Henry in 2024 fantasy drafts could be looking at years of gnawing regret.
Pro Football Focus ranked Baltimore’s run blocking as the NFL’s sixth best in 2023. Meanwhile, the Titans ranked 18th. Plenty of positive game script and the Ravens’ steady run-blocking unit — led by Tyler Linderbaum — should create the space Henry needs to rip off his patented romps to the end zone in 2024.
Win Total
The Ravens are tied with the 49ers for the highest DraftKings Sportsbook win total: 11.5. It’s a lofty number and one that (obviously) assumes a fully healthy season for Lamar, Andrews, Flowers, and Henry. It’s tough to project fewer than a dozen wins if that comes to pass and the team enters a second season under the offensive coordinating of Monken. Baltimore’s stellar defense — graded by PFF as last year’s third best — provides a nice little cushion for Lamar and the offense if opposing defenses start to figure out the Monken-based offense.
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