14. Houston Texans
Point Differential: 16th
Points Per Game: 19th
Offensive EPA: 21st
Defensive EPA: 6th
Dropback EPA: 7th
Run Game EPA: 6th
The Texans avoided becoming just the ninth playoff team to post a negative point differential this decade by … beating Will Levis/Mason Rudolph by nine points in Week 18. That got them to a nice, even zero. If you don’t consider that victory impressive, the same will probably apply to the rest of their schedule. Of the Texans’ 17 games and 10 victories, only one was a win over a playoff-bound squad. Houston, somehow, beat the Bills 23-20 in Week 5. The next best thing was their admittedly-bonkers near upset of the Lions in Week 10. “Near” because they wasted three first half Jared Goff INTs by scoring zero points after the break and squandering a 23-7 lead. Again, this was probably Houston’s second most impressive overall performance of the season. With an offense that’s broken beyond repair and a defense that isn’t good enough to carry a team to the promised land, the Texans should be one-and-done following their 4:30 PM ET heritage slot on Saturday.
13. Pittsburgh Steelers
Point Differential: 13th
Points Per Game: 16th
Offensive EPA: 20th
Defensive EPA: 8th
Dropback EPA: 8th
Run Game EPA: 17th
Vying for the title of “league’s worst playoff team” for the second year running, the Steelers enter the tournament on a four-game losing streak where they were outscored 109-57. They were missing George Pickens for half that span, but he was back in time to post an unseemly, drop-filled Week 18 doughnut against the Bengals’ awful defense. 3-5 since Week 11, Mike Tomlin’s squad simply seems out of gas. Of course, that Week 11 victory came over Wild Card opponent Baltimore. The Ravens easily won their Week 16 rematch, but that was with Pickens sidelined as both teams navigated a three-game, 11-day gauntlet. Tomlin, of course, owns the Ravens. Pittsburgh holds a shocking 8-2 advantage against its bitter rival this decade. Lamar Jackson’s career win/loss vs. Tomlin’s group is 3-5. The head games at play here are one reason a Black and Yellow Wild Card upset can’t be entirely ruled out. What can? Any sort of a run afterwards.
12. Los Angeles Rams
Point Differential: 17th
Points Per Game: 20th
Offensive EPA: 15th
Defensive EPA: 23rd
Dropback EPA: 28th
Run Game EPA: 20th
In search of their first playoff victory since Super Bowl LVI, the Rams arrive in the postseason as the worst team in a loaded NFC field. That they are 7-of-7 says as much about the rest of the group — it’s great — as the Rams, but let’s be clear: They’re seventh. The only qualifier in this year’s tournament with a negative point differential, the Rams are 9-3 since their Week 6 bye: With a +26 differential. Those numbers are a slightly more impressive 9-2/+31 if you throw out their Week 18 exhibition game against the Seahawks. Winning is winning — just ask the Chiefs — but the Rams have taken to grinding games out. They haven’t scored more than 20 points in a competitive contest since Week 14. That was a shootout victory over the Bills, but it’s a formula that doesn’t feel repeatable against the Vikings’ strong defense. Even if it is, there is nothing in the Rams’ 2024 résumé — bottom half of the league in basically every metric that matters — that suggests a deep playoff run.
11. Washington Commanders
Point Differential: 10th
Points Per Game: 5th
Offensive EPA: 4th
Defensive EPA: 22nd
Dropback EPA: 22nd
Run Game EPA: 27th
This year’s most surprising playoff entrant is far from its worst. It’s also not particularly close to the best. The Commanders boast Jayden Daniels’ game-breaking ability, but you need more than one X-factor to make a deep postseason run. I don’t really see that here, even if I badly want to believe. That is not to say the Commanders are incapable of upsetting the Bucs. That possibility is definitely live for a team that finds itself modest three-point road ‘dogs. (The Bucs’ 37-20 Week 1 victory might as well be another lifetime ago.) But even there it seems like a case of “everything the Commanders do well, the Bucs do slightly better.” These are both strong offenses. Tampa’s is a little more consistently explosive. These are both vulnerable defenses. Tampa’s is more efficient, and boasts an actual strength in stopping the run. The Bucs have more impressive wins, placing second to only the Lions amongst the NFC’s playoff participants in the league’s “strength of victory” metric. Washington is dead last by a considerable distance. The Commanders aren’t “early,” they’re already here. Just don’t count on this being their longest stay.
10. Denver Broncos
Point Differential: 7th
Points Per Game: 10th
Offensive EPA: 16th
Defensive EPA: 1st
Dropback EPA: 1st
Run Game EPA: 4th
In some ways, the Broncos are making it up as they go along. Who’s this week’s lead back? Ask me at halftime. What’s the plan in the passing game? Are we going deep, or as short as humanly possible? You know, I haven’t really thought about it. But if things sometimes felt ad hoc as coach Sean Payton probed the strengths and weaknesses of rookie quarterback Bo Nix, the results speak for themselves: The Broncos usually found a way to win. 3-2 to begin the season, they went 5-2 to close it. They never lost more than two games in a row, though the games they did lose tended to be to playoff teams. Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Kansas City and the Chargers (twice) all send their regards. If you throw out the Broncos’ farcical 38-0 Week 18 triumph over the slumbering Chiefs, their lone win over a postseason qualifier came all the way back in Week 3, 26-7 over Tampa. It suggests a squad that is a year away, but there are enough positive elements here to at least contemplate a Wild Card upset of the Bills. Top 10 in scoring, the Broncos have the league’s best defense by EPA. They are fourth best by DVOA. If you’re stellar on defense and opportunistic on offense, you can win playoff games. Nix and second-year pro Marvin Mims have proven capable of matchup-flipping plays. Is it the most likely outcome? No. Is it inconceivable? Also no.
9. Los Angeles Chargers
Point Differential: 8th
Points Per Game: 11th
Offensive EPA: 12th
Defensive EPA: 5th
Dropback EPA: 5th
Run Game EPA: 9th
The Chargers found themselves at a low following their 40-17, Week 15 home setback to the Bucs. Their third loss to a playoff-bound group in four games left them at 8-6 and in danger of tumbling out of the mix. They responded with their best stretch of the year, out-scoring their final three opponents 108-54 and winning a massive head-to-head matchup with the Broncos. Of course, if you want to get technical about it, the Broncos were the Chargers’ best victory all season. They did it twice, but they beat a grand total of zero other playoff squads. Their .348 “strength of victory” is by far the lowest in the entire AFC/NFC field. So you could say it’s a good thing the Chargers’ run starts with one of the only postseason teams clearly worse than they are, Houston. The Texans’ weakness isn’t the only reason the Bolts find themselves road favorites for the Wild Card Round. Los Angeles is an “intangibles” unit. Their nine turnovers were the league’s second fewest, so it’s not surprising their +12 turnover differential is tied for third best. The defense is fundamentally sound. Justin Herbert can make any throw. Jim Harbaugh almost always has the coaching advantage. Stranger things have happened than this 53 making a deep run. They still seem a piece or two away from being genuine dark horse contenders.
8. Green Bay Packers
Point Differential: 5th
Points Per Game: 8th
Offensive EPA: 8th
Defensive EPA: 4th
Dropback EPA: 4th
Run Game EPA: 8th
You respect the Packers. You don’t yet fear them. The Pack do the first thing any good team does: Hammer bad ones. They went 9-1 against squads that failed to make the playoffs, with the lone loss their bizarre Week 18 setback against the Bears. They also beat two playoff units, dispatching the Rams and Texans earlier in the year. You can see where this is going. You need to beat bad teams and weak playoff groups. You also sometimes have to beat the best, and the Packers went 0-5 against the Lions, Vikings and Eagles this season. All of those defeats were narrow, but the Pack have the feel of a team that doesn’t quite believe in itself yet. Nothing is more illustrative of that fact than their absolute refusal to put the game on Jordan Love’s shoulders. Of course, that might have something to do with Love’s spiking INT rate, as well as his propensity to miss time in 2024. Love missed two games. He failed to finish three others, including the Bears finale. The Packers feel oh-so-close. Their most recent surprising playoff run came … last year. It could happen. That’s not true of every group on this list. It’s just not remotely close to the most likely outcome in a conference where the Packers were the third best team in their own division.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Point Differential: 6th
Points Per Game: 4th
Offensive EPA: 5th
Defensive EPA: 17th
Dropback EPA: 19th
Run Game EPA: 7th
It’s not hyperbole to say the high-flying Bucs can beat anybody. They were one of just two teams to surmount the Detroit Lions during the regular season, for instance. They beat the Eagles by 17 points and took the Chiefs to overtime. They are an “any given Sunday” squad if there ever was one. That goes the other way, too. Tampa lost twice to Kirk Cousins and once to Cooper Rush. They needed overtime to beat the Panthers in December and let the Saints take them down to the wire in their must-win Week 18 contest. So is life when you’re a high-variance squad. Although fourth in overall scoring, the Bucs surrendered the third most points amongst playoff teams. Baker Mayfield was second in touchdown passes (41) but first in interceptions (16) and first in overall turnovers (18). The Bucs want to shoot games out, not grind them out. The latter is a higher-floor approach. The former is higher ceiling. Tampa advancing beyond the Divisional Round would be surprising. It would not be shocking.
6. Minnesota Vikings
Point Differential: 9th
Points Per Game: 9th
Offensive EPA: 14th
Defensive EPA: 2nd
Dropback EPA: 2nd
Run Game EPA: 1st
The Vikings lost only three games all year and have to go on the road for the Wild Card Round. There’s no justice sometimes. Then again, they weren’t particularly convincing in their “win the one seed or go to someone else’s home” Week 18 postseason dress rehearsal. The Vikings are headed to Los Angeles because they went to Detroit and didn’t come close to winning. In fact, for all their victories, they don’t have many impressive ones. You play the schedule you’re given, of course, but the Vikings’ “strength of victory” as measured by the NFL is 11-of-14 in this year’s field. Their point differential is merely fifth best in the NFC. This is an impressive team, a consistent team. It is not a dominant one. Only the dreaded Chiefs have more one-score victories amongst playoff qualifiers than the Vikings’ nine. It stands to reason you will have a lot of one-score wins when you have so many wins. But the Vikings beat the Seahawks and Cardinals by a combined four points in December. Again, this is not an unbeatable squad. It is impressively well-rounded. The Vikings have an elite defense, strong offense, and the kind of coaching that … drumroll please … helps you win a lot of one-score games. They can do this thing. They simply wouldn’t be my first choice since most roads lead to a third Lions matchup in Detroit in the Divisional Round.
5. Philadelphia Eagles
Point Differential: 2nd
Points Per Game: 7th
Offensive EPA: 6th
Defensive EPA: 3rd
Dropback EPA: 3rd
Run Game EPA: 2nd
How good is the Eagles’ roster? It won games started by Kenny Pickett and Tanner McKee the final two weeks of the season. They weren’t even trying to win in Week 18. It’s just kind of something they do. Another thing the Eagles do is grind games out. The seventh-highest scoring offense in the league also faced the second most third downs. Talk about methodical. That’s great until it isn’t. What happens if the Eagles fall behind 10-0? There’s no “62-yard Saquon Barkley run” button you can push. Philly is at its best when it is pushing teams around. That’s much harder to do in the postseason. Luckily for them, their run begins with a Packers squad that likes to play the same style of football. Can the Pack out-Eagle the Eagles? It seems unlikely. Establish the run. Pick your spots deep. Play dominant defense. It’s a championship-winning formula as old as time. It’s just a little more fragile than it used to be in an age of explosive offense, particularly Detroit’s in the NFC. No one should be surprised if the Eagles win it all. It would still be more surprising than if they don’t.
4. Buffalo Bills
Point Differential: 3rd
Points Per Game: 2nd
Offensive EPA: 2nd
Defensive EPA: 12th
Dropback EPA: 20th
Run Game EPA: 5th
The Bills do the things championship teams do. Ruthless efficiency on offense. Protecting the ball. Taking the ball away. Buffalo leads the league in turnover differential. None of this is new. The Bills have been explosive on offense and opportunistic on defense for years. So you could say it’s a bit of a disappointment they haven’t even reached the AFC Championship Game since 2021. What’s different this time around? Not a whole lot, except for the fact that Josh Allen has his weakest supporting cast since Stefon Diggs first arrived in 2020. There’s not much to say other than the Bills finally have to do the damn thing this year. The Chiefs aren’t blowing anybody out. The Ravens have defensive liabilities. Speaking of liabilities, can Sean McDermott stop being one on the biggest stage? That, more than anything else, would free the Bills to finally reach their championship potential. There’s no reason the Bills can’t be the team to lift the Lombardi. Someone should tell McDermott that.
3. Baltimore Ravens
Point Differential: 4th
Points Per Game: 3rd
Offensive EPA: 1st
Defensive EPA: 11th
Dropback EPA: 14th
Run Game EPA: 3rd
You’re only overrated in sports until you’re not. The Ravens have long been champions of hype. Record-setting regular seasons followed by … not that in the playoffs. 2023 was a baby step. The Ravens didn’t play their best ball in the postseason and still used an avalanche second half to bury the Texans in the Divisional Round before almost beating the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. “Almost” only matters in horseshoes and hand grenades, etc. etc. The point is, the Ravens are closer than ever to finally breaking through, especially if their late-season defensive improvement was for real. They limited the playoff-bound Eagles, Steelers and Texans to 43 combined points after Dec. 1. The offense needs no introduction. Their 6.85 yards per play were the second most in NFL history after the 2000 Greatest Show on Turf Rams. Lamar Jackson and company have achieved ridiculous heights of efficiency, and are comfortable either grinding you out or shooting you out. Now, like the Bills, it’s time to simply do it. Are you going to beat Patrick Mahomes when it matters or not? This year’s Ravens have the strengths, experience and X-factors to do so. (A quick addendum: I originally had the Ravens ahead of the Chiefs, but the seeming loss of Zay Flowers may level the playing a little too much.)
2. Kansas City Chiefs
Point Differential: 11th
Points Per Game: 15th
Offensive EPA: 9th
Defensive EPA: 15th
Dropback EPA: 15th
Run Game EPA: 10th
First things first — your point differential takes a bit of a hit when you lose 38-0 in Week 18 with your backup quarterback. But that game is maybe more telling than people think. The Eagles won their Week 18 slopfest. The Bills came close. Yes, the Chiefs were facing a Broncos squad fighting for their playoff lives instead of the tanking Giants or Patriots, but let’s be real: It’s been a while since a team was this much about one player. Patrick Mahomes executes better than any modern quarterback not named Tom Brady. Frankly, he’s probably surpassed even Brady. Yes, the coaching is elite. The defense is strong. But even if you might not guess it from his 2024 statistical output, Mahomes is carrying this entire project to a degree no one else matches this postseason. You don’t have to look too far into the past to find the last time this worked: Last season. It can be done, especially since the Chiefs’ path has returned to its traditional two games at Arrowhead Stadium instead of two away from home. But the AFC field is as dangerous as ever, with the only easy outs — Houston and Pittsburgh — likely to be eliminated Wild Card weekend. The Chiefs are going to have to earn it. They, of course, usually do.
1. Detroit Lions
Point Differential: 1st
Points Per Game: 1st
Offensive EPA: 3rd
Defensive EPA: 7th
Dropback EPA: 6th
Run Game EPA: 12th
The Lions have done everything but reach the Super Bowl the past two seasons. That includes beating the Chiefs. Detroit’s 2023 Week 1 triumph in Kansas City was its arrival announcement. Now they are ready to seal the deal vs. Patrick Mahomes or frankly whomever opposes them in the Super Bowl. Because that does appear to be Detroit’s destination, especially after their hard-earned attainment of the NFC’s No. 1 seed. You won’t let us host a Divisional Round game until we smother the 14-2 Vikings in Week 18? Fair enough. There is no 2024 test the Lions haven’t passed. They now get to heal their ailing defense and running game, as well as settle into the friendly confines of Ford Field en route to what they hope is the Superdome. There are no questions on offense. The Lions are first in scoring and point differential. The defense isn’t good enough to shut you down, but it is good enough to make life difficult after the offense gets out ahead 14-0. The Lions’ path to the big game is easier than any of their AFC counterparts. There are no Buffalo or Baltimore booby traps looming in the NFC. If you have the easiest path to reach the Super Bowl, you also have the best odds to win it. The Lions will be more than ready for whomever awaits.
