2022 Stats (Rank)
Points per game: 18.4 (25th)
Total yards per game: 346.7 (15th)
Plays per game: 68.2 (1st)
Pass Attempts + Sacks per game: 45.5 (1st)
Dropback EPA per play: 0.06 (14th)
Rush attempts per game: 22.7 (32nd)
Rush EPA per play: -0.21 (32nd)
Coaching Staff
Well, let’s start with the worst of it. Todd Bowles retains control after his takeover plunged the Buccaneers offense into disarray, falling from 1st in offensive DVOA in 2021 to 16th in 2022 despite employing Tom Brady. Byron Leftwich was fired for his role in how things went south, but the Buccaneers replaced him with first-time OC Dave Canales, Seattle’s quarterbacks coach last year. The only time in Canales’ career that he called plays was in 2004-2005, when he was the offensive coordinator for Carson High School in California. The relative difference in experience leads me to believe Bowles -- who helped set the unit’s dinosaur-esque philosophies on running the ball last year -- will continue to have a big voice in the offensive scheme and play calling.
Bowles is a fantastic defensive mind and Tampa’s defense somehow evaded losing most of their best defenders to free agency despite a Brady-created cap crunch. The layer of ring-seeking vets like Akiem Hicks are gone with Brady out of the picture, and Tampa let Sean Murphy-Bunting walk to the Titans in free agency, but otherwise they return seven of their top eight players by snap counts last season. With the way they profile to play offense helping to shorten games, and an offensive slate in the NFC South that isn’t exactly dominant, the Tampa D/ST could profile as a solid streamer at times this year, with the upside for more if they bounce back as a pass rush with Shaquil Barrett projected to actually play in 2023 after tearing his Achilles last season.
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Passing Game
QB: Baker Mayfield, Kyle Trask, John Wolford
WR: Mike Evans, Trey Palmer
WR: Chris Godwin, Deven Thompkins
WR: Russell Gage, David Moore
TE: Cade Otton, Ko Kieft, Payne Durham
(Puts on Portishead album.)
If Sean McVay couldn’t turn Baker Mayfield into more than a mediocre project, I’m having a hard time seeing it come together in a better way with even worse play-calling. The problem with being The Guy Who Turned Odell Beckham Into A Backside Dig Receiver is that I can’t sit here and say “Well, look at all the talent around him!” Look at it! It’s not bad! But does it really matter? I never actually understood why this team picked Kyle Trask in the second round, and two years later, I think the only reason he’s getting a look is because they invested what they did in him in the first place. Nothing we’ve seen from him in the preseason -- 59% completion rate, two touchdowns, four interceptions, 12 sacks in 134 dropbacks -- portends that he’ll be interesting. I’m doing him a favor by not talking about his tiny amount of experience in an actual NFL game. Also, you know, it doesn’t say much for your status as a contender for the QB1 role when the team takes Mayfield off the board early in free agency. It’s frustrating. I think if Tampa had been the team to draft Will Levis, we could have a completely different narrative around the team’s fantasy prospects. Instead, we’ve got two quarterbacks who haven’t demonstrated they can play good football in either of the last two years and an offensive staff that doesn’t elevate either of them.
My gut feeling is that Chris Godwin is the easy fantasy bank here. His ADP has fallen into the 50s after being the only playable fantasy receiver the Bucs had last season. He had exactly one (1) game of fewer than seven targets after his early ACL rehab/ankle injury issues in Weeks 1-3, against eight weeks with at least 10 targets. The touchdowns will be few and far between because that’s how things go when you are being asked to be an extension of the running game. Godwin’s average targeted air yard distance last year of 5.8 was the seventh-lowest among qualified receivers and put him behind most of the NFL’s top tight ends. The volume is too high for Godwin to be unusable, and if he runs hot and scores a few more touchdowns, I think we can get somewhere worthwhile on his current ADP.
The problem Tampa’s ancillary receivers have is that Godwin is good and they are not, but they all run routes in the same areas. That targeted air yards figure of seventh-worst for Godwin? Let me introduce you to Cade Otton at sixth-lowest and Russell Gage at ninth-lowest. Gage somehow was hurt for the entirety of last season and still managed 70 targets. If we somehow generate Good Mayfield out of whatever happens here, I think Gage could be a waiver-wire darling early in the 2023 slate. He did (hilariously) manage five touchdowns to Godwin’s three, and his yards per target declined massively while hamstring and ankle listings kept him mostly out of practice even when he did play. Otton’s volume is simply too low for me to look him up with the perceived output of this offense. He couldn’t crack 70 yards in a game last year and will need to run touchdown-lucky to be a factor at tight end. Outside of specific front-running matchups (Denver), Tyler Higbee essentially disappeared with Mayfield at quarterback. David Njoku’s lack of progress under Mayfield is also notable.
That leaves us to talk about what to do with Evans, who is still ADPing for a reasonable amount but was essentially unplayable from Week 10-Week 18 outside of a little game we like to cite as Making Pat Kerrane Rich. Evans has literally always produced -- the six touchdowns he had last year were his lowest number since 2017. He produced with Josh McCown and Mike Glennon, he produced with Ryan Fitzpatrick, he produced with Jameis Winston, and he likely would have produced with Josh Freeman but it only feels like he’s been around long enough to have played with Freeman. But he’s also never been 30 years old during the process, and he’s never played with a coordinator/quarterback combination this sour and prickly about what NFL football is.
I’m cautiously drafting the dip if it dips enough -- and sometimes it does in drafts -- but nothing about Evans is exciting this year and both the age and quarterback strike me as reasons to add additional concern. We already saw what the coaching philosophy change did last year.
Running Game
RB: Rachaad White, Chase Edmonds, Ke’Shawn Vaughn
OL (L to R): Tristan Wirfs, Matt Feiler, Ryan Jensen, Cody Mauch, Luke Goedeke
Well, the good thing about drafting White this year is that you can’t reasonably be concerned about anything if you believe in his talent. Edmonds is a third-down back and journeyman now on his fourth team in less than three years. Ke’Shawn Vaughn has been in the NFL since 2008 and I refuse to hear any evidence to the contrary. This is a run-first offense. Please ignore that the shape and production of the run offense (running into big boxes) and just focus on the volume, that is the case for White being a top-20 back this year, with a Josh Jacobs 2022-esque run-out as a ceiling scenario.
Do I believe in White’s talent? He had a paltry eight broken tackles per Sports Info Solutions’ charting and generated just 2.2 yards after contact per carry, a number that would put him ahead of just Leonard Fournette and Antonio Gibson amongst backs with major roles last year. It would be one thing if I looked at this offensive line and saw the 2015 Cowboys, but White is going to be exposed in this scheme and with this crew in front of him. He’s going to have to be the one to make things work and what we saw from the rookie season was lacking. I’m a cautious buy on the volume, and it’s not like he costs a lot right now as he’s often going after 75 picks. I can see runouts with plenty of 10/38 rushing lines with this current setup, but I can also see James Conner 2022 runouts pretty easily, where he monopolizes the backfield and they still get plenty of fantasy value out of him.
The offensive line scares me. Wirfs compared moving from right tackle to left tackle to being a “newborn baby” and Ryan Jensen has a past history of being an asskicker but is now 32 years old and coming off a major injury in 2022. You surround that with a second-round rookie at guard, someone who struggled in his rookie season at guard last year and is now being moved to tackle in Goedeke, and a retread free agent in Feiler. Wirfs is one of the best tackles in the NFL, but the rest of this unit is in a level of disrepair.
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Win Total
BetMGM has Tampa’s over 5.5 wins at -165 and the under 5.5 at +125. They won eight games last year with Brady. I don’t quite think on a pure talent level they’re a five-win team, but the direction of the offense and the quarterback play certainly could lead one to believe they’ll finish that low. So let’s look at the external motivations -- is Todd Bowles playing for his job this year? I think so. Is Bucs GM Jason Licht under any pressure? It’s certainly possible given the level of turnover. I’m a reluctant over 5.5 bettor if anything here, but I’d rather stay away from the line entirely as I feel it’s fair.
