With the 2023 regular season over, it’s time to look at the rookie class and see how they stack up to the freshmen of previous years. For a more detailed description of what I mean when I reference a player’s production as a percentile (i.e., Charbonnet finished below the 50th percentile in yards), check out Part One of my running back breakdown. The short story is that it measures players against previous rookie seasons with similar draft capital. Higher numbers are better.
Rashee Rice, Chiefs
Rice’s usage as a rookie was frustrating for the majority of the season. He didn’t earn a route rate over 50 percent until Week 7 and didn’t cross the 80 percent threshold until Week 14. This confounding usage was set to the backdrop of Kansas City fielding one of the worst receiving corps in the league when Rice wasn’t out there. Try as he might, Andy Reid couldn’t keep Rice off the field forever and granted him a full-time role in Week 14 on the heels of strong performances in his previous two games. From Week 12 onward, Rice averaged seven catches for 82 yards and .4 touchdowns per game (through the AFC Championship, which is the most recent game as of this article’s posting). He finished the regular season averaging .26 targets per route run and 2.5 yards per route run. Both marks were top-10 among all receivers.
Rashee Rice was one of the most efficient wide receivers in the NFL, even while filling a limited role as a rookie.
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) January 15, 2024
Among 74 receivers with 350+ routes run, Rice had the lowest average depth of target.
Compare that to the other WRs in the top-12 in YPRR: pic.twitter.com/BXgrHRXdHb
The next element of Rice’s game we need to see is his downfield usage. He only recorded six deep targets in the regular season and never had an aDOT over 10 in a game. Rice’s 5.2 aDOT before the postseason is the lowest mark for a receiver since 2014. On the other hand, his 8.3 yards after the catch per reception went down as the second-highest mark since PFF began tracking that stat in 2006. As a rookie, Rice was the best underneath weapon a team could ask for but offered nothing else. For him to reach a ceiling, he needs to round out his game.
The good news is that, even if he doesn’t change his game, Rice is an elite short-area weapon for the best quarterback ever and is tied to that quarterback for three more seasons. He should be able to sustain WR2 fantasy numbers without changing his aDOT. If sees more intermediate and deep targets in his second season—he did in college as evidenced by his 11.2 aDOT as a senior—Rice could become a yearly top-five fantasy option. I have him ranked as a WR1 in my dynasty rankings.
Marvin Mims, Broncos
Mims’ usage throughout his rookie season was inexplicable. He caught nine balls for 242 yards and a touchdown in his first four games while also returning a kickoff for a touchdown. The Broncos wouldn’t give him an increase in routes for a few more weeks. By that point, they had stopped scheming their electric play-maker touches. He saw eight first-read targets in his first four games and would go on to see nine more over his final 12 appearances. His usage did register a slight uptick late in the year, but it was somewhere between strange and absurd to see him on the bench for half of his team’s passing plays over the final month of the season.
In dynasty, I want to bet on talent above all else and let the rest of the chips fall where they may. Mims appears to be talented. However, he finished his rookie season with production nearly identically to Tre Tucker and Trey Palmer, who didn’t make the list based on arbitrary cutoffs that unsuccessfully tried to keep the word count in check. By the way, Palmer is not a bad stash in dynasty leagues with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin hitting free agency in the next two offseasons. Given that Mims’ raw counting stats are indistinguishable from guys you may be able to find as free agents in shallow dynasty leagues, we should add the caveat of “cautious” to our optimistic outlook on him.
Tank Dell, Texans
Dell entered the league as an elite college prospect with serious questions about his ability to translate that to the NFL. He stands 5’8/165 and was going from AAC to the majors. Players that small have next to no track record of production in the NFL and the jump in competition wouldn’t help either. All of that analysis went out the window instantly as Dell blew up for 15 catches, 251 yards, and two scores in his first three games. His production ebbed and flowed because of injuries to both him and the other Houston receivers, but he finished the year above the 95th percentile in catches, yards, and fantasy points per game.
Dell played primarily from the outside as a rookie and had an aDOT of 14.5. He is tied to C.J. Stroud for the remainder of his rookie contract and beat all of the major criticisms he faced. Dell should confidently be ranked as a high-end dynasty WR2.
Jalin Hyatt, Giants
Hyatt’s rookie season didn’t amount to much as he started out the year as a backup before slowly earning a role as a deep threat. He was used exclusively as a down-field option, registering a 20.7 aDOT. A receiver hasn’t had that high of a target depth on as many targets since 2018, which aligns with his usage at Tennessee. Over half of his receiving yards came on deep throws and he had an aDOT over 14 in 2022 and 2021. With Daniel Jones as his quarterback, Hyatt will have to drastically expand his route tree to be a meaningful fantasy contributor.
His college teammate, Cedric Tillman, didn’t make the arbitrary cut for this article after doing next to nothing in his rookie season but gets a mention here. He finished last among all rookies (min. 200 routes) in yards per route run and earned targets at a dreadful clip of .12 per route.
Josh Downs, Colts
Downs racked up 40 catches for 473 yards and two touchdowns in eight weeks. He then tweaked his knee in practice and never looked the same. His route rate plummeted as he labored through the knee issue that initially popped up in the summer. He caught 28 balls for 298 yards over the final 10 weeks of the season.
Had his season ended after eight games, Downs would have posted nearly identically numbers to Rashee Rice and landed well above the 90th percentile for a Day 2 receiver. His late-season slump can’t be ignored, but it’s fair to give him a partial pass based on the knee issue. He looks like a buy heading into his sophomore season.
Michael Wilson, Cardinals
Wilson’s counting stats for his rookie season—38 receptions for 565 yards and three scores—were solid, but he runs into the same issue that Jonathan Mingo did. The advanced metrics show a player who was earning most of his production by just being on the field for a lot of snaps. He finished the year 61st in yards per route run. This doesn’t come as much of a surprise. Wilson is a boundary receiver who doesn’t earn separation but isn’t a jump-ball specialist either. He ranked 87th in ESPN’s open score and 83rd in average yards of separation while catching less than half of his contested targets. With the Cardinals eying Marvin Harrison Jr. with the No. 4 pick, I don’t see a breakout season on the horizon for Wilson.
Dontayvion Wicks, Packers
The Packers and fantasy managers were pleasantly surprised by Wicks, who entered the year as their WR4. Like Reed, Wicks was thrust into a larger role because of injuries but did not miss a beat. Wicks picked up a handful of 40-yard games in the first half of the season and hit his stride late in the year. He caught 22 passes for 341 yards and three scores in his final six games of the regular season. He finished the year as a 90th percentile producer for a Day Three receiver by yards, catches, and fantasy points per game.
The biggest issue for Wicks will be earning a full-time role. The Packers have two tight ends who deserve playing time and four receivers all worthy of seeing the ball. Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson both appeared to be full-time players when healthy, so there may simply not be enough snaps to go around for Wicks to be a weekly fantasy contributor.
Puka Nacua, Rams
Nacua exits the 2023 season as the crown jewel of the class. He set the records for receiving yards and receptions as a rookie. Odell Beckham’s mind-bending rookie season is the only thing keeping Nacua from being the 100th-percentile rookie regardless of draft capital. He averaged 2.59 yards per route run and even added 12 carries for 89 yards to his resume. Nacua even gave us an encore in the playoffs with a 9/181/1 line versus the Lions.
Puka hit him with the hesi 🔥
— NFL (@NFL) January 15, 2024
📺: #LARvsDET on NBC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/FQxg8TIX83
The only question for Nacua is how high to rank him. He is 22 years old and coming off the WR4 overall season. The conversation should start after Justin Jefferson. Nacua is likely going to lose Matthew Stafford in the next two or three years and Sean McVay has reportedly mulled retirement as well. On the other hand, Nacua is going to project for top-five fantasy numbers at the age of 23 years old. If we’re getting more points now from a younger player, why shouldn’t he be ranked ahead of players like A.J. Brown and Amon-Ra St. Brown?
Demario Douglas, Patriots
The Pats’ receiving room was slammed with injuries on top of their lack of talent in 2023, but Douglas was one of the few bright spots on the roster. He finished first on the team in yards and second in catches. Douglas, who is 5’8/190, was used exclusively out of the slot in college and didn’t hit a 30 percent College Dominator until his senior season at Liberty. He was used similarly in New England and that will likely stick after the Pats add more receiving talent in the offseason, likely via the draft. Douglas may sustain WR4 fantasy numbers, though it’s hard to see a path toward a ceiling for him.