2022 Stats
Total yards per game: 322.8 (23rd)
Plays per game: 65.2 (10th)
Pass Attempts + Sacks per game: 35.8 (17th)
Dropback EPA per play: 0.02 (19th)
Rush attempts per game: 29.4 (10th)
Rush EPA per play: 0.01 (3rd)
Coaching Staff
What Mike Tomlin has done the last few years has been extraordinary. He has kept the Steelers over .500 despite a total lack of good quarterback play, an underperforming rushing offense, and an offensive line that has been underwhelming. Pittsburgh was missing T.J. Watt for several games last season and they weathered the storm admirably.
Less admirably, Tomlin has committed to Matt Canada for another season after two horrendous seasons with or without Ben Roethlisberger. Canada’s horizontal-based offense has at times made passing feel literally impossible. Canada has entered this offseason under the line “well, uh, actually it’s you?”
Which is a choice. It’s fair to say that this is the most talented offensive group that the Steelers have put together since Antonio Brown was exiled. But Canada’s continued inclusion despite any results and several anecdotal issues (i.e. the tight end saying the offense didn’t have hot routes, the center saying “the plays didn’t change all year,” George Pickens running go routes for days) is absolutely something that casts a dark cloud over optimistic projections for fantasy football. We just saw what happens when Pittsburgh’s offense is run by this quarterback and this offensive coordinator and the answer was “everyone underperformed and the team tried to grind out wins.”
If you believe that will continue, Pittsburgh’s perennially good defense remains a solid fantasy unit. The overall offensive ceilings in the AFC North have gone up with a full year of Deshaun Watson, Todd Monken’s offense coming to Baltimore, and the Bengals being as good as ever. If you think the Steelers can dictate pace to those teams, this can be a reliable unit this year -- at the very least, they can be a streamer with all the AFC South teams on the schedule.
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Passing Game
QB: Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, Mason Rudolph
WR: Diontae Johnson, Miles Boykin
WR: Allen Robinson, Calvin Austin Jr.
WR: George Pickens, Gunner Olszewski
TE: Pat Freiermuth, Zach Gentry, Darnell Washington
One of the most interesting things I see in fantasy football today is this dichotomy: Kenny Pickett is currently hovering in the low-20s in quarterback ADP, but Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, and Pat Freiermuth are all going in the top 110. Johnson and Pickens are going top-75. So this offense can support three good passing options and a running back going early, but ... the quarterback can’t put up fantasy points? The quarterback is less-highly regarded than Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, and some indeterminate amount of Kyler Murray games?
I think you can take that two different directions. The optimistic side is that Pickett is being undervalued, and I think the way you tell that story is that the supporting cast has improved. Robinson is drawing some OTAs hype for his ability to play in the slot, which would give this team a consistent third option at wideout if true, and the offensive line should improve some after signing Isaac Seumalo and drafting Broderick Jones to put Dan Moore on notice at left tackle. We often project improvement for quarterbacks heading into their second year. And while the coaching staff is the same, we’re at least able to say that the Steelers have improved the cast around him and that he should be able to take advantage of that.
Now let’s talk about the downside case. Was Kenny Pickett clutch? Not really. He had a minus-14.7% DVOA on throws in the fourth quarter and overtime. Did his arm open up the offense? Not really. Pickett’s 21.8% DVOA on deep passes was the second-lowest of any quarterback with 50 deep attempts on the season, ahead of only Kyler Murray. Did he perform well in the red zone? He had an NFL-worst minus-141 DYAR on his 61 red zone attempts. Does that mean there’s absolutely no chance he improves in 2023 and becomes the sum of the parts he wasn’t in 2022? No – we watched Josh Allen happen and nobody should rule anything out after a little under 400 pass attempts. But for a quarterback lauded for his ability to win games, he sure didn’t do anything resembling franchise quarterback play in his first season besides appearing in some wins and putting together a few good highlight clips.
And if Pickett isn’t going to take a step up this season, it’s hard to understand how the passing game parts around him can live up to the hype that they’re currently getting in drafts. I think Pickens is a fabulous player waiting to break out, and I can’t tell you I hate taking a stab at him. But can the situation deliver him fantasy value? And didn’t the situation just this last year, with the same principal players, give us Pickens upset about his involvement in the offense in Week 2? If you believe in a Robinson bounceback, there’s even more competition for targets. Diontae Johnson’s 2022 season gives us reason to believe in regression because -- as Beavis’ tombstone famously said -- he never scored. He was still more frequently-targeted than Pickens was last year, even after Pickett took over. But given how poor this team was in the red zone last year, do you really believe there’s going to be more than two or three touchdowns to squeeze out of regression? Particularly when Freiermuth and Robinson loom as the “red zone big bodies” for fades?
For me, outside of Freiermuth, this passing game is a full-on fade at the current ADPs. I didn’t believe much in Pickett as a prospect -- something that was borne out by him falling deep into the first round -- and nothing I saw in year one has convinced me otherwise. If there was a new offensive coordinator or vision to buy into, perhaps it would cause me more pause. But I kind of see a Pickett bust-out season as about a 15:1-:20:1 prospect and that means I’m not buying much of anything out of this passing game. If you do believe in the contrary, as I said ... Pickett is quite an ADP bargain in that case. I try to stay away from outright ruling out any outcomes, but I will be someone taking a bath on a good Steelers passing offense this season if it happens.
Running Game
RBs: Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, Anthony McFarland Jr.
OL (L-R): Broderick Jones, Isaac Seumalo, Mason Cole, James Daniels, Chukwuma Okorafor
Did Harris return first-round fantasy value this past year? He did not. The main difference between 2021 Harris and 2022 Harris was workload, as Harris lost 35 carries and 44 targets while Warren established himself as a clear No. 2 back. There’s a fairly well-sized gap developing between the top 10 backs (ADP 28.1 for RB10 Josh Jacobs) and Harris (37.2 as of this writing in Underdog ADP.) Harris, to his credit, played through a Lisfranc injury last year. Based on where he was drafted and how run-heavy the offense is, you would expect him to return value. But he had just one 100-yard rushing game all season and was targeted more than five times in only four games. Warren has effectively capped Harris’ upside as long as the two of them are both healthy. I think he’s roughly fairly valued, but don’t wind up with a ton of him in my early drafts as I’ve been more interested in backs I like a little better in that zone like Kenneth Walker and Jahmyr Gibbs.
Warren, meanwhile, I think is still being a little overlooked. He’s hanging out with rookie company like Kendre Miller and Tank Bigsby despite coming off a 77/379/1 rookie season with a lot of pass-catching upside. A recent dispatch from Steelers OTAs noted that “there is no way offensive coordinator Matt Canada can keep him off the field as much as he did last season.” I’m not quite seeing a 50-50 timeshare, but I do think it’s possible that Warren makes real inroads on 35-40 percent of the rushing this season. Harris’ ability to play through injury can’t be questioned and that probably lessens some of Warren’s injury upside cases, but he’s also the unquestioned No. 2 at this point.
Seumalo has been more steady than dominant over the past couple of years in Philadelphia, but he’ll be an upgrade on Kevin Dotson, especially as a run-blocker. Jones and Moore are probably going to have a camp battle, but if Jones wins that battle, he’s potentially an absolute mauler with his physical attributes on the outside. Pittsburgh’s offensive line is, as was the case last year, a bad unit aspiring to be average. If they can get there, and the passing game doesn’t connect, both Harris and Warren will benefit.
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Win Total
Over 8.5 is currently -145 at BetMGM, with under +120. Right around .500 is probably a fair line for the Steelers, and as much as I’ve slandered the offense for fantasy purposes in this preview, Tomlinball has definitely proven effective at actually winning games. My problem with picking the Steelers to win nine games is ... I can’t find a team in this division I like them to be above. On paper, I’m relying on teams to pick up important injuries and for the Steelers to avoid them. I am loathe to pick against Tomlin and would call this a stay away, but as I’m contractually forced to pick one of these, I’d lean towards the under 8.5.
