2022 Stats (Rank)
Total yards per game: 357.5 (10th)
Plays per game: 63.3 (17th)
Pass Attempts + Sacks per game: 36.7 (8th)
Dropback EPA per play: 0.137 (6th)
Rush attempts per game: 25.7 (19th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.1 (25th)
Coaching staff
The Jaguars head into Doug Pederson’s second year at the helm after going 9-8 and winning the less-than-stellar AFC South in 2022. The team’s coaching staff will look almost identical to last season — a nice shift to normalcy after the tumultuous and short-lived Urban Meyer era.
The Jaguars in February added wide receivers Coach Chad Hall and offensive quality control coach Greg Austin to the staff. Hall, a former NFL receiver, is credited with working closely with Stefon Diggs from 2020 to 2022 as Diggs dominated targets in the Buffalo offense and proved to be one of the league’s most productive wideouts. In Jacksonville, Hall will work with new (presumed) top receiver Calvin Ridley.
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Passing Game
QB: Trevor Lawrence, C.J. Beathard
WR: Calvin Ridley, Kevin Austin
WR: Christian Kirk, Jamal Agnew
WR: Zay Jones, Tim Jones
TE: Evan Engram, Brenton Strange
Jacksonville’s passing attack in Pederson’s first season was a fantasy boon for anyone who went heavy on Lawrence and the team’s primary pass catchers. Fifteenth in pass rate over expected, the Jaguars weren’t unblinkingly pass heavy, but proved efficient through the air and were willing to take full advantage of favorable matchups against exploitable secondaries. That’s really all we can ask for as fantasy managers.
For as good as the Jags passing offense was in 2022 — finishing eighth in EPA per drop back — they were even better in the season’s second half, ranking fifth in drop back EPA behind the Chiefs, Niners, Steelers, and Lions. Only five teams had a higher passing success rate than the Jaguars from Week 10-18. In short, Lawrence and company figured it out in their run to the postseason.
Operating in an NFL-style offense for the first time, Lawrence was uneven through most of the season’s first half. He was 12th in adjusted EPA per drop back and 15th in completion rate over expected through Week 9, frustrating fantasy managers with some statistical clunkers. Lawrence went on a tear over the season’s final nine weeks, finishing fifth in adjusted drop back EPA and fourth in completion rate over expected. The Jaguars ramped up their red zone pass rate in the season’s second half, and Lawrence finished with the seventh most pass attempts inside the 10 yard line. Fifteen of his 25 touchdown tosses came on those green zone throws.
Lawrence, if he can carry over his November and December success into 2023, should be a stable fantasy starter with some upside in the right game script. Pederson’s willingness to let Lawrence loose with downfield attempts -- he was fifth in deep throws last year -- should fuel Lawrence’s spike weeks.
The team’s target distribution was flat throughout 2022. Christian Kirk led the Jaguars with a 23 percent target share while Zay Jones logged a 22 percent target share and Evan Engram saw 17 percent of the team’s targets. Kirk, running 75 percent of his routes from the slot, was 13th in expected fantasy points among receivers last season, finishing as fantasy’s 15th highest scoring wideout. Operating as Lawrence’s most effective short-area target, Kirk’s average depth of target dropped to a career low 9.7. He had nine games with at least six receptions, offering a sturdy PPR floor without much ceiling outside of a Week 10 blowup game against Kansas City.
Jaguars Report’s John Shipley told me and Patrick Daugherty on a recent Rotoworld Football Show that it took Lawrence most of the season to get comfortable with how Kirk ran routes and operated against certain coverages. “I do think Lawrence having a year of experience with Kirk will mean something, at least early on in the season,” Shipley said. That familiarity and Kirk’s locked-down gig as Jacksonville’s primary slot guy could make him an overlooked fantasy producer in 2023 drafts.
Shipley said Ridley should profile as Jacksonville’s No. 1 wideout, though he bucked at the label “unquestioned alpha” to describe the former Falcons star. Ridley, who hasn’t played in an NFL regular season game for nearly two years, is entering his age-28 season in a new offense with established pieces all around him. It was a full three years ago that Ridley was eighth among wideouts in yards per route run on his way to a top-five fantasy campaign as a target dominator in Atlanta’s offense. Ridley’s production then plummeted by every measure during his five-game 2021 season in a horrific Atlanta offense that didn’t seem to know how best to deploy Ridley.
It’s a considerable leap, I think, to assume Ridley will take over as the Jaguars’ top dog wideout after Jones and Engram and Kirk had a (successful) year in this offense with Lawrence. Drafting as if you’re getting the 2020 version of Ridley could lead to more than a few frustrating fantasy outings if the Jaguars’ target share remains relatively flat. I should note, of course, that Shipley said Ridley “looked like the most impressive receiver” at Jaguars minicamp.
Zay Jones, beloved by Jaguars coaches and players alike, had more expected fantasy points than Drake London and was just behind the likes of Mike Evans and DeVonta Smith thanks to target volume that flummoxed fantasy managers for much of the year. With eight games with at least eight targets, Jones was among fantasy’s best waiver wire pick ups in 2022. Shipley predicted much of Ridley’s production would come at the expense of Jones, who, like Ridley, plays almost exclusively on the outside. Still, Jones should be a mainstay in three-receivers sets.
Meanwhile, T.J. Hockenson and Travis Kelce were the only tight ends to run more pass routes than Engram in 2022. That Engram was deeply inefficient (29th among tight ends in yards per route run) didn’t matter thanks to route and target volume. He finished as fantasy’s fifth highest scoring tight end. Only Kelce had more yards after the catch than Engram last year. Not much should change for the hyper-athletic tight end in 2023; he should be a steady if unspectacular PPR option in 12-team formats.
Running Game
RB: Travis Etienne, Tank Bigsby, Ja’Mycal Hasty, D’Ernest Johnson
OL (L-R): Cam Robinson, Ben Bartch, Luke Fortner, Brandon Scherff, Walker Little
Jaguars Report’s Shipley told Rotoworld in June that third-round pick Tank Bigsby doesn’t represent a real threat to Travis Etienne’s role as Jacksonville’s primary rusher. Shipley said there’s a sense among Jaguars coaches that Etienne left a lot of production on the field by missing running lanes in 2022 (it might have something to do with the Jaguars being among the three worst run-blocking offensive lines, per Pro Football Focus). He still ended up with 1,125 rushing yards, the ninth most in the NFL. “That’s probably the lower outcome of what he can do,” Shipley said.
Etienne popped in peripheral categories too: He was third in rush yards over expected per attempt and 13th in rush yards after contact per carry. In short, Etienne was good in 2022.
Pederson’s offense doesn’t usually involve the backfield in the passing attack, as we saw last season when Jaguars running backs saw a meager 14 percent of the team’s targets. Etienne had a 7.8 percent target share. He saw more than four targets just three times in the regular season. The lack of backfield targets certainly dings Etienne’s PPR upside.
Bigsby, who ran for 2,069 yards and scored 20 rushing touchdowns in his final two seasons at Auburn, could chip away at Etienne’s green zone (inside the 10) workload if the Jacksonville short-yardage rushing attack struggles early on, Shipley said. Such an outcome would be a tremendous blow to Etienne’s fantasy prospects. Last year, he was seventh among all backs with 23 rushes inside the 10 yard line (Lawrence was second on the team with nine). Bigsby could play fantasy spoiler for Etienne drafters if Etienne gets stuffed early and often on short yardage and goal line carries.
Bigsby is a worthwhile bench stash for Zero RB drafters hoping to get running back volume on the cheap. If Etienne misses time in 2023, it’s Bigsby who figures to benefit the most, though coaches’ favorite JaMycal Hasty will surely be involved as a pass catcher.
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Win Total
PointsBet over/under: 9.5
Pick: Over
With the 12th easiest schedule this season, per Warren Sharp’s strength of schedule analysis, there’s every reason to believe the Jaguars will be a double-digit win team in 2023. Lawrence’s integration into Pederson’s offensive system, an offensive line that keeps Lawrence upright, and the addition of Ridley should propel this offense to a new level after 2022’s occasional struggles. Being in a down-bad AFC South won’t hurt Jacksonville’s cause either.
